At the end of July, the European Banking Authority (EBA) released the results on the latest installment of the EU-wide stress test that is performed every two years.
Seventy banks have been considered, which is an increase of twenty banks compared to the previous exercise. The portfolios of the participating banks contain around three quarters of all EU banking assets (Euro and non-Euro).
Interested in how the four Dutch banks participating in this EBA stress test exercise performed? In this short note we compare them with the EU average as represented in the results published .
The general conclusion from the EU wide stress test results is that EU banks seem sufficiently capitalized. We quote the main 5 points as highlighted in the EBA press release :
The results of the 2023 EU-wide stress test show that European banks remain resilient under an adverse scenario which combines a severe EU and global recession, increasing interest rates and higher credit spreads.
This resilience of EU banks partly reflects a solid capital position at the start of the exercise, with an average fully-loaded CET1 ratio of 15% which allows banks to withstand the capital depletion under the adverse scenario.
The capital depletion under the adverse stress test scenario is 459 bps, resulting in a fully loaded CET1 ratio at the end of the scenario of 10.4%. Higher earnings and better asset quality at the beginning of the 2023 both help moderate capital depletion under the adverse scenario.
Despite combined losses of EUR 496bn, EU banks remain sufficiently apitalized to continue to support the economy also in times of severe stress.
The high current level of macroeconomic uncertainty shows however the importance of remaining vigilant and that both supervisors and banks should be prepared for a possible worsening of economic conditions.
For further details we refer to the full EBA report .
Making the case for transparency across the banking sector, the EBA has released a detailed breakdown of relevant figures for each individual bank. We use some of this data to gain further insight into the performance of the main Dutch banks versus the EU average.
Using the data presented by EBA , we display the evolution of the fully loaded CET1 ratio for the four banks versus the average over all EU banks in the figure below. The four Dutch banks are: ING, Rabobank, ABN AMRO and de Volksbank, ordered by size.
From the figure, we observe the following:
Compared to the average EU-wide CET1 ratio (indicated by the horizontal lines in the graph above), it can be observed that three out of four of the banks are very close to the EU average.
For the average EU wide CET1 ratio we observe a significant drop from year 1 to year 2, while for the Dutch banks the impact of the stress is more spread out over the full scenario horizon.
The impact after year 4 of the stress horizon is more severe than the EU average for three out of four of the Dutch banks.
Evolution of retail mortgages during adverse scenario
The most important product the four Dutch banks have in common are the retail mortgages. We look at the evolution of the retail mortgage portfolios of the Dutch banks compared to the EU average. Using EBA data provided , we summarize this in the following chart:
Based on the analysis above , we observe:
There is a noticeable variation between the banks regarding the migrations between the IFRS stages.
Compared to the EU average there are much less mortgages with a significant increase in credit risk (migrations to IFRS stage 2) for the Dutch banks. For some banks the percentage of loans in stage 2 is stable or even decreases.
This short note gives some indication of specifics of the 2023 EBA stress applied to the four main Dutch banks.
Should you wish to go deeper into this subject, Zanders has both the expertise and track record to assist financial organisations with all aspects of stress testing. Please get in touch.