Mastering Pre-Hedge Strategies: Data-Driven FX and Risk Management for 2025 

Recently, Zanders' own Sander de Vries (Director and Head of Zanders’ Financial Risk Management Advisory Practice) and Nick Gage (Senior VP: FX Solutions at Kyriba) hosted a webinar. During the event, they outlined strategies for optimizing corporate treasury FX programs. The duo analysed risk-increasing events from recent years, identified potential challenges that 2025 may pose, and discussed how to address these issues with a strong risk management policy.

Analyzing 2024 Events 

The webinar began with a review of 2024's key financial events, particularly the Nikkei shock. During this period, the Japanese Yen experienced significant appreciation against the USD, driven by concerns over U.S. economic projections and overvalued tech stocks. This sharp rally in the JPY led to a wave of unwinding carry trades, forcing investors to sell assets, including stocks, to cover their positions. Additionally, western central banks continued their gradual reduction of interest rates throughout 2024, further influencing market dynamics. The webinar explored the correlation between these economic shocks and anticipated events, particularly their impact on EUR/USD rate fluctuations. By examining how past events shaped market volatility, risk managers can better prepare for potential future disruptions. 

Coincidentally, the webinar was held on November 5, 2024, the same day as the U.S. presidential election—a key topic of discussion among the hosts. The election outcome was expected to have a significant impact on markets, increasing both volatility and complexity for corporate risk managers. Shortly after the session, another Trump victory was announced, leading to a strengthening of the USD against the EUR, even as the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates further in the following days. In addition to the election, rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing reductions in base interest rates were highlighted as potential catalysts for heightened market volatility. 

Challenges and Opportunities in 2025 

By reflecting on past challenges and looking ahead, risk managers can optimize their policies to better mitigate market shocks while protecting P&L statements and balance sheets. Effective risk management begins with accurately identifying and measuring exposures. Without this foundation, FX risk management efforts often fail—commonly referred to as “Garbage In, Garbage Out.” A complete, measurable picture of exposures enables risk managers to select optimal responses and allocate resources efficiently. 

During the webinar, a poll revealed that gathering accurate exposure data is the biggest challenge in FX risk management. Common issues include fragmented system landscapes, incomplete data, and delays in data registration. Tools designed for FX risk planning and exposure analysis can address these gaps by verifying data accuracy and ensuring completeness. 

A sound financial risk management strategy considers three core drivers: 

1- External Factors: These include the ability to pass FX or commodity rate changes to customers and suppliers, as well as regulatory constraints faced by corporate treasuries. 

2- Business Characteristics: Shareholder expectations, business margins (high or low), financial leverage, and debt covenants shape this driver. 

3- Risk Management Parameters: These encompass a company’s risk-bearing capacity (how much risk it can absorb) and its risk appetite (how much risk it is willing to take). 

By incorporating these drivers into their approach, risk managers can design more effective and strategic responses, ensuring resilience in the face of uncertainty. 

Understanding these core risk drivers can enable risk managers to derive a more optimal response to their risk profile. To design an optimal hedging strategy, treasurers need to consider various risk responses, which include: 

• Risk Acceptance 

• Risk Transfer  

• Minimization of Risk  

• Avoidance of Risk  

• Hedging of Risk 

Treasury should serve as an advisory function, ensuring other departments contribute to mitigating risks across the organization. While creating an initial risk management policy is critical, continuous review is equally important to ensure the strategy delivers the desired results. To validate the effectiveness of a financial risk management (FRM) strategy, treasurers must regularly measure risks using tools like sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and at-risk analysis. 

• Sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis evaluate how market shifts could impact the portfolio, though they do not account for the probability of these shifts. 

• At-risk analysis combines the impact of changes with their likelihood, providing a more holistic view of risk. However, these models often rely on historical correlations and volatility data. During periods of sharp market movement, volatility assumptions may be overstated, which can undermine the reliability of results. 

We recommend a combined approach: use at-risk analysis to understand typical market conditions and scenario analysis to model the impact of worst-case scenarios on financial metrics. 

To further enhance hedging strategies, some corporates are turning to advanced methods such as dynamic portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR). This sophisticated approach improves risk simulation analysis by integrating constraints that maximize VaR reductions while minimizing hedging costs. It generates an efficient frontier of recommended hedges, offering the greatest risk reduction for a given cost. 

Dynamic portfolio VaR requires substantial computing power to process a large number of scenarios, allowing for optimized hedging strategies that balance cost and risk reduction. With continuous backtesting, this method provides a robust framework for managing risks in volatile and complex environments, making it a valuable tool for proactive treasury teams. 

Conclusion: Preparing for 2025 

2024 was a year that brought many challenges for risk managers. The market uncertainty resulting from many larger economic shocks, such as the U.S. Election and multiple geopolitical tensions made an efficient risk management policy more important than ever. Understanding your organization's risk appetite and bearing capacity enables the selection of the optimal risk response. Additionally, the use of methods such as dynamic portfolio VaR can promote your risk management practices to the next level. 2025 looks to create many challenges, where treasurers should stay vigilant and create robust risk management strategies to absorb any adverse shocks. How will you enhance your FX risk management approach in 2025?   

You can view the recording of the webinar here. Contact us if you have any questions.