The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is expected to block CME Group’s attempt to fast-track a new 24/7 West Texas Intermediate oil futures contract, citing concerns that energy markets are not prepared for round-the-clock derivatives trading. CME argues that continuous trading would help investors respond to geopolitical events and market-moving developments outside traditional trading hours.
Japan is exploring structural measures to strengthen the yen by encouraging pension funds to increase allocations to domestic assets rather than overseas investments. The announcement lifted the currency from near 40-year lows, with the yen strengthening from above ¥162 per US dollar to around ¥161.3. Markets view increased demand for yen-denominated bonds and equities as a more sustainable source of currency support than direct intervention, highlighting Japan’s efforts to address persistent capital outflows and currency weakness.
Global diesel markets face renewed supply pressures after Russia imposed an export ban, adding to disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tight inventories and reduced Russian refining capacity have driven diesel prices sharply higher, even as crude oil prices have fallen. Analysts warn of potential shortages in import-dependent regions, while higher diesel costs could increase transport, agricultural and industrial expenses, complicating inflation-control efforts.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.57% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.11% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, citing risks from the Middle East war, trade fragmentation and potential shifts in artificial intelligence-driven market expectations. Growth is projected to recover to 3.4% in 2027, still below recent averages. Inflation for 2026 was raised to 4.7%. Global trade growth is expected to slow to 3.5% from 5% in 2025, reflecting weaker demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
China’s central bank pledged to maintain an accommodative monetary policy to support weak domestic demand amid rising global uncertainty and external shocks. It highlighted a mismatch between strong supply and subdued demand, and committed to boosting consumption, ensuring ample liquidity and coordinating with fiscal policy. The bank aims to stabilise growth, support a recovery in prices and keep the currency broadly stable as economic growth is expected to moderate.
Polish zloty fell to a 19-month low on Wednesday as rising geopolitical tensions and a breakdown in Middle East peace talks increased market risk aversion ahead of a central bank decision. Investors expect the policy rate to remain at 3.75%, despite potentially higher inflation forecasts linked to the war. Regional currencies and equities also weakened, while expectations of softer policy guidance contributed to pressure on the zloty.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.54% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 3.14% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
NATO members pledged at least €140bn in military aid to Ukraine over two years, with €70bn earmarked for next year and a matching sum in 2028. The United States opted out, leaving European allies and Canada to fund the weapons, while the Netherlands maintained its planned €3.4bn a year for 2027-2029. The Hague added €35m in non-military support, split between troop training, an anti-drone project and medical aid.
Crude oil rose more than 2% to above $70 a barrel on Tuesday after attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz revived fears of supply disruptions. Prices nonetheless stayed close to their lowest since late February, weighed down by expectations of ample supply. Gold held steady around $4,150 an ounce as investors awaited the Fed’s June minutes.
Doubts about the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally weighed heavily on semiconductor stocks, despite stronger-than-expected quarterly results from Samsung. Investors are increasingly questioning whether the billions being invested in AI infrastructure will generate sufficient returns. Sentiment was further pressured by reports that Chinese start-up DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip, adding to concerns about future competition and the long-term profitability of AI-related investments.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.55% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 3.05% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
New Zealand’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), is expected to raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.5% this week, according to 16 of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, with markets pricing a 70% chance of a hike. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the OCR at 2.25% since November, but reviving demand and inflation concerns may prompt a hike, while some economists favour waiting until September.
China has increased Middle East oil purchases, buying at least 26 million barrels for July-August delivery, far above its typical 5.5 million barrels a day. Saudi Aramco offered deep discounts on its Arab Light crude, the steepest since June 2020, following the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts expect this to boost Chinese buying further, though Beijing is cautious about signalling a full return, as commercial stocks were depleted by nearly 1 million barrels a day during the Iran war.
Japan’s 30-year government bonds rose after Tuesday’s auction drew the strongest demand since 2019, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.55 versus 2.94 previously. The yield fell seven basis points to 4.005%. Investors were attracted by historically high yields despite concerns over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s large spending plans and doubts the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is raising rates fast enough to contain inflation, as the yen weakens to a four-decade low against the dollar.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.55% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.00% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
NATO leaders meeting this week face mounting pressure to turn last year’s pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035 into tangible military capabilities. The summit will test whether Europe can assume a greater security role while maintaining US engagement, amid concerns over defence production, procurement and support for Ukraine. Investors and policymakers are increasingly focused on whether higher defence budgets can translate into sustained industrial and strategic capacity.
Wall Street expects equities to extend their rally into the second half of 2026, supported by easing energy prices, solid earnings and ample liquidity. The broad market posted its strongest quarter in six years, while analysts forecast a further 21% gain over the next 12 months, with AI investment remaining a key driver. Investors are increasingly looking beyond mega caps towards industrials, healthcare, materials, smaller companies and international markets.
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise output again, adding 188,000 barrels a day from August. The move extends a gradual unwinding of cuts in place since 2023, taking core members’ quota increases since April to almost 800,000 barrels a day. Much of the rise stays on paper for now, as the Strait of Hormuz closure keeps key exports bottled up.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.57% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.99% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. dollar fell sharply after June employment data showed just 57,000 jobs were added, well below the 110,000 expected, prompting markets to scale back expectations of further Federal Reserve rate increases. The dollar index recorded its largest daily decline in over two months, while the euro strengthened. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen rallied nearly 1% as traders reacted to reports that Japanese authorities may be adopting a less predictable intervention strategy to deter speculation against the currency.
The UK Financial Conduct Authority proposed measures to improve retail investor protection by simplifying disclosure requirements and banning the practice of charging fees while retaining interest on customer cash balances. Reviews found that most investment disclosure documents were overly complex and difficult for consumers to understand. The regulator also warned firms in the £500 billion unit-linked pension market to improve value for customers, while replacing several disclosure rules inherited from European Union legislation.
U.S. trade officials opted not to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement review process. The decision maintains uncertainty around future trade conditions affecting more than $1.5 trillion in regional commerce.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.55% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.96% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Euro zone inflation slowed more than expected to 2.8% in June from 3.2%, below the 3.0% forecast, as food, energy and services prices eased. Core inflation also declined to 2.4% from 2.6%. While still above the European Central Bank’s 2% target, easing price pressures and weaker wage growth support a cautious policy stance. Markets expect the central bank to pause in July but still anticipate a potential rate hike later in the year.
The U.S. dollar’s recent rebound is expected to fade despite growing bullish positioning, as easing oil prices reduce inflation concerns and expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Most foreign exchange strategists still foresee gradual dollar weakness, with the euro projected to rise to $1.17 by end-2026. However, a sizeable minority anticipate near-term dollar strength driven by persistent inflation, elevated yields and potentially more aggressive monetary tightening than other major central banks.
Brazil’s Treasury warned fiscal targets will become unfeasible from 2028 without new measures, as rising mandatory spending continues to outpace cost controls. Despite current targets allowing limited deficits, projections show primary surpluses of only 0.2% to 0.3% of gross domestic product versus goals of up to 1.5%. Funding gaps could reach 136.4 billion reais by 2030. Public debt is expected to peak near 87.9% of gross domestic product in 2029.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.57% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.93% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of England has cautioned that the growing use of artificial intelligence in financial markets could amplify market volatility if trading systems react to signals in the same way, increasing the risk of herd behaviour. Regulators may need to strengthen oversight of AI driven investment products and consider safeguards to prevent destabilising trading activity. While AI can boost productivity and lower costs, the central bank stressed that human accountability must remain at the core of financial markets.
Elevated valuations and growing market fragility are fuelling concerns that parts of the US equity market, particularly technology and semiconductors, may be entering bubble territory. Valuation gauges remain stretched, with the Buffett Indicator at 218% and the S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 3.22 versus a long-term average of 1.84. While strong earnings and broader market participation continue to support the rally, investors remain wary of AI driven spending and high valuations.
The EU is cutting tariff free steel import quotas by 47% to 18.3mn tonnes a year, with a 50% duty applied above those limits. Brussels aims to shield domestic producers from persistent global overcapacity, which is forecast to rise to 721mn tonnes, while supporting investment and jobs. The move may slightly raise steel prices, though the impact on end products is expected to be limited.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.60% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.91% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Japanese yen fell to 162.19 per U.S. dollar, its lowest level since 1986, prompting warnings from Japanese officials of possible intervention. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed readiness for decisive action. According to Nomura’s Julia Wang, any intervention would likely have a short-lived market impact, as wide interest rate differentials continue to favour carry trades that weaken the yen. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently raised its benchmark rate to 1%, the highest since 1995.
According to a new McKinsey study, production costs in Europe are significantly higher than in China across many sectors, with gaps ranging from 40% for semiconductors and batteries to three to four times more for electric vehicles. China’s annual expansion of manufacturing capital is estimated at three to five times that of the US and Europe combined. Even under optimistic assumptions, reforms such as deregulation, smarter location choices, and adopting nuclear energy would only close 30% to 60% of the cost gap.
Europe’s largest banks, represented by the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME), are urging regulators not to intervene in equity markets. AFME warns that tightening rules on off-exchange trading could damage liquidity and leave investors worse off. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) raised the prospect of regulatory measures following a decline in on-exchange trading activity. AFME argues that any future action should be evidence-based and that restricting trade execution options is unlikely to support competitive, simplified markets.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.60% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.91% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Bond investors are increasingly looking beyond US markets, with analysts advocating for short to intermediate duration government bonds in developed markets where central banks remain tightly focused on inflation. The ECB raised rates 25 basis points to 2.25% on 11 June, its first hike since September 2023, while markets currently price a 78% probability of a Fed rate rise in December. European fixed income is seen as attractive, pointing to lower risk and higher yields relative to US equivalents.
China escalated its export control campaign against Japan, blacklisting four government defence research institutes and tightening restrictions on dozens of other entities, including units of Mitsubishi Electric and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The measures, which take effect immediately, expand a pressure campaign launched in January targeting dual-use goods and rare earth minerals. Economists estimate a sustained one-year cutoff of Chinese rare earth exports could reduce Japan’s GDP by around 1.3%, equivalent to roughly 43 billion dollars.
Extreme heat and severe weather are emerging as a significant threat to AI data centres, with Zurich Insurance reporting that weather events now account for a third of losses in its US data centre builders’ risk portfolio. Some 79% of global data centre capacity faces elevated climate risks, as operators increasingly move to frontier markets such as West Texas and Ohio where exposure to tornadoes and hail is higher. Cooling already accounts for 40% of data centre energy use, a share that rises during heatwaves precisely when grid capacity is most constrained.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.61% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.91% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
