U.S. equities declined sharply on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 541 points (0.97%), the S&P 500 falling 1.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping 2.15% to its lowest level since early May. The downturn reflected disappointing results from major technology companies and renewed investor concern over elevated capital expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure, compounded by rising Treasury yields amid an oil-driven inflation outlook.
Crude oil extended its rally for a fifth consecutive session amid escalating Middle East tensions, with Brent crude settling approximately 7% higher at $99.71 per barrel, its strongest level in eight weeks. The advance followed reported attacks on tankers near Saudi Arabia and a suspension of crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in Kazakhstan; U.S. crude benchmarks rose in tandem to the $90-93 range. Separately, the U.S. House of Representatives approved up to $95 billion in war-related appropriations, pending Senate approval.
Gold prices declined despite heightened geopolitical risk, with August futures opening at $4,074.60 per ounce, down 1.9% on the session, as rising bond yields and inflation expectations outweighed traditional safe-haven demand. The metal has now retreated more than 20% since late February, from approximately $5,274 to $4,160 per ounce, pressured by sustained U.S. dollar strength amid ongoing geopolitical volatility.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.69% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 3.23% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European gas prices have risen nearly 50% since late June, with the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark exceeding €62/MWh as traders worry about winter supply security. Heatwaves in Europe and Asia have increased gas demand, while disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and diverted liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes have tightened the market. Storage refill efforts are lagging, prompting concerns that Europe may miss winter targets and face heightened price volatility.
The appointment of the UK’s new energy secretary signals continued commitment to net zero and clean energy policies despite speculation about greater North Sea oil and gas production. The secretary has previously supported accelerating net zero targets, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and limiting new drilling. Industry groups are urging government backing for domestic production and key offshore projects, while supporters argue that clean power, electrification and investment remain central to improving energy security and lowering costs.
Bolivia is close to securing an International Monetary Fund (IMF) financing package worth between $2.5bn and $2.8bn, with an announcement expected within days. More than half of the funds are expected to be disbursed by early September and used to strengthen foreign exchange reserves. The government expects the agreement to unlock additional multilateral financing, potentially exceeding $5bn this year. Authorities said the IMF supports the country’s economic programme, including fiscal deficit reduction and exchange-rate reforms.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.69% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.21% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. administration is preparing to introduce new tariffs on dozens of countries, potentially as early as this week, as a temporary 10% global tariff is set to expire on Friday. According to the report, the initial measures are expected to remain broadly in line with the current 10% rate. However, the administration is also pursuing additional investigations that could provide the legal basis for proposing higher import duties in the future.
Euro zone banks tightened credit standards in the second quarter as geopolitical and energy-related risks weighed on their risk appetite. The European Central Bank’s Bank Lending Survey showed stronger business loan demand, but also higher rejection rates, especially in sectors such as automotive and energy-intensive manufacturing. Banks expect further tightening across all loan categories in the third quarter, while housing loan demand has already fallen sharply and is expected to decline further.
China indicated that it wants a more balanced and constructive trade relationship with the European Union, describing the two sides as partners with closely linked interests. During discussions with European lawmakers, China called for trade issues to be addressed within a broader partnership framework and expressed willingness to strengthen cooperation on global affairs. The talks come as the European Union considers measures to address its trade deficit with China and seeks progress in ongoing trade and investment discussions.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.69% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.20% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Central Bank, ECB, will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, with most economists expecting the deposit rate to remain at 2.25% as oil prices near $90 per barrel keep inflation risks elevated. President Christine Lagarde has described a “twilight zone” of shifting oil market cycles requiring careful judgment. Economists polled by Bloomberg still expect one more hike to 2.5% in September, with high gas prices also flagged as a concern.
The World Bank has approved a $1.5 billion loan to South Africa, the fourth in a series of stand-alone development policy loans since 2022 aimed at easing infrastructure bottlenecks. Reforms in electricity and transport could create almost 600,000 jobs by 2032, including 280,000 next year. Power shortages have been nearly eliminated for 18 months, private renewable energy investment has risen sixfold, and rail and port freight volumes are up more than 50% since 2023.
New Zealand’s annual inflation rose to 4.1% in the second quarter, a two-and-a-half-year high, above forecasts of 4.0% and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s own projection of 3.9%. Petrol prices jumped 27.5% and diesel 71.1%, driven by the Middle East war. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its cash rate to 2.50% earlier this month and is expected to hike further in September, with core inflation still elevated despite some softening.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.69% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 3.19% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Commission plans to overhaul public procurement rules, shifting focus from price to security, sustainability and strategic autonomy to strengthen the bloc’s competitiveness. Public procurement accounts for about 15% of EU GDP, yet only 5% of contracts are awarded across borders, prompting efforts to create a more integrated market. The proposals would increase transparency, tighten scrutiny of non-European suppliers and introduce national oversight authorities.
Oil prices climbed as escalating tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 2.5% to above $90 per barrel, while WTI gained 2.3% to $84.38, reflecting fears of a tighter oil market. Analysts warn that declining Gulf exports could tighten inventories by September, supporting prices in the $95 to $105 range.
China stepped up efforts to support its stock market after a sharp selloff, with state backed investment funds increasing equity purchases and regulators convening industry participants to bolster confidence. The benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 5.3% last week, extending pressure on the world’s second largest equity market following weakness in global technology stocks. Authorities aim to stabilize capital markets through targeted interventions and continued support for domestic shares.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.69% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 3.17% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Iraq is engaged in advanced negotiations to establish new pipeline infrastructure, including a route connecting southern oilfields to the north and a second traversing Syria to the Mediterranean, as the nation seeks alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the strait during the conflict with Iran reduced Iraq’s oil output by more than half, from over 4 million barrels per day, placing significant strain on state revenues and prompting broader efforts among Gulf states to expand pipeline infrastructure circumventing the strait.
Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports have reduced storage capacity at the nation’s largest port by one third, disrupting one of the world’s principal grain export corridors. Russia and Ukraine collectively account for approximately one third of global wheat exports. Chicago wheat futures reached a two year high of 6.95 dollars per bushel, while Russian export forecasts for July have been revised downward by up to 20 percent, raising concerns regarding a tightening of global wheat supply.
United States equity markets declined as the semiconductor sector fell by nearly 5 percent, contributing to a decrease of 1.47 percent in the Nasdaq to 25,881.95, 0.51 percent in the S&P 500 to 7,533.77, and 0.20 percent in the Dow to 52,552.97, notwithstanding robust retail sales figures and reduced jobless claims. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 closed 0.54 percent higher at 10,572.24, supported by consumer staples and pharmaceuticals, while economic growth remained fragile.
The 6M Euribor increased with 7 basis points to 2.72% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 3.17% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European Central Bank policymakers signalled a cautious stance on interest rates, urging vigilance but not calling for immediate tightening. Although rates were raised in June and further increases remain possible this year, a July move is seen as unlikely. Officials noted no evidence of second-round inflation effects, despite rising oil prices. Markets assign a low probability to a near-term hike but expect two increases by next spring, with September fully priced in amid persistent uncertainty.
U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell by 0.3% in June after a revised 0.6% increase in May, signalling easing inflationary pressures prior to renewed Middle East tensions. The annual increase slowed to 5.5% from 6.0%. A 1.4% drop in goods prices, led by a 6.4% decline in energy costs, drove the decline, while services rose 0.2%. Markets still expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in July but anticipate a hike in September.
Brazil is preparing for a potential 25% U.S. tariff on over 4,000 products worth around 15 billion dollars annually, marking the first case under a broader new trade strategy. An additional 12.5% tariff linked to a forced-labour probe could raise the total burden to 37.5%. The move may strain bilateral trade further, prompt retaliation, and accelerate Brazil’s shift towards alternative partners such as China.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.65% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.15% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
China’s economy expanded by 4.3% in the second quarter, its lowest pace since late 2022 and below the government’s target range, as investment fell 5.7%. Stronger industrial output (+5.3%) and exports provided support, but weak domestic demand and the prolonged property downturn continued to weigh on growth. The data is likely to intensify calls for additional policy stimulus in the months ahead.
Dutch pension funds have allocated just 1.3% of assets to private credit, compared with 8.3% for insurers, leaving current systemic risks contained according to the Dutch central bank. However, the regulator warns that the market, worth around $2tn, is expanding rapidly and remains relatively opaque. Stress testing and closer monitoring are being developed to assess potential vulnerabilities and interconnected risks.
Global equities advanced after U.S. inflation slowed to 3.5%, below expectations, while strong bank earnings boosted investor sentiment and eased concerns over further rate hikes. Oil prices rose, with Brent settling at $84.73 a barrel, as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions fuelled supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. Falling Treasury yields and a weaker dollar supported risk assets, although geopolitical risks remain a key market overhang.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.62% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 3.14% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Tuesday to a four week high, as the US reimposed its naval blockade of Iran while both countries escalated attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose to 84.80 US dollars per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose to 79.84 dollars. Two United Arab Emirates tankers were hit by Iranian missiles, killing one crew member. Tanker traffic through the Strait fell to its lowest level in two months, deepening uncertainty over energy supply flows.
India’s Consumer Price Index inflation rose to 4.38% in June, up from 3.93% in May, as the U.S.-Iran war and a weak monsoon pushed up food and fuel prices. This exceeded economists’ forecast of 4.30%. Food inflation reached 5.32%, while transport inflation climbed to 4.3%. The Reserve Bank of India expects inflation to rise to 5.1% this fiscal year, with core inflation forecast at 4.7%, as oil price risks and monsoon uncertainty persist.
The European Commission’s plan to give heavy industry more time to decarbonize, by extending free emission rights under the Emissions Trading System (ETS), has drawn criticism from environmental organisations. Critics argue this delays industrial sustainability and rewards companies that have not yet invested in greener processes, undermining businesses that already have. Since its introduction in 2005, the ETS was set to phase out free rights by 2039. Since 2013, around 260 billion euros has been raised through emission rights sales, most of which goes to member states for climate investments.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.63% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 3.15% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US companies are set to outpace their European peers on earnings growth in the next reporting season, with American tech firms expected to post profit growth of 65.5% against 14% in Europe, driven by AI heavyweights such as Nvidia and Micron. Corporate margins are hitting record levels on both sides of the Atlantic despite elevated oil prices, with US margins up nearly two percentage points this year. Investors will focus on guidance from hyperscalers including Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta, which last quarter raised their combined capital expenditure forecasts by more than 100 billion dollars.
India is holding out for more favourable terms in trade talks with the United States, rejecting a quick interim deal after Washington failed to offer tariff advantages over competitors such as China or guarantees against future levies. New Delhi’s position has been strengthened by a 15% rise in goods exports in the second quarter, a UK free trade agreement taking effect this month and Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 growth forecast for India to 6.8%. The standoff risks steeper US tariffs on Indian exports later this month, though analysts suggest Modi calculates that a rushed deal could prove costlier than holding out.
AI executives are pushing back on concerns about slowing demand, with several stating that compute capacity remains severely constrained and that the buildout has further to run. One executive described AI demand as “almost unlimited,” citing energy availability as the only meaningful bottleneck, while Lumentum said its data centre products are sold out for the next five years. Enterprises are nonetheless scrutinising returns more closely, shifting from unconstrained AI usage toward a focus on value creation, a trend executives dubbed “valuemaxxing.”
The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to 2.61% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 3.09% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
