Figures from the US Department of Labor showed on Tuesday that consumer prices in the United States have increased less than expected. On an annual basis, consumer prices rose 3.2% last month while economists expected an inflation level of 3.3%. A month earlier, prices rose by 3.7% on an annual basis. Core inflation stood at 4.0% in October. The figure was positively received on stock and bond markets.
The figure that measures German economic sentiment, the ZEW index, rose in November and is currently above 0 again. This was evident from figures from the German ZEW institute on Tuesday. The index rose from -1.1 to a value of 9.8. The market expected an index figure of 5.0.
After three quarters of growth, the Japanese economy shrank in the third quarter of this year, according to final figures published on Wednesday by the Japanese government. On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank by 0.5% after growing 1.1% in the second quarter. On an annual basis, Japan’s gross domestic product contracted by 2.1% in the third quarter.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 4.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 10 basis points to 3.08% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Equity markets in Europe ended higher yesterday. The AEX closed 0.95% higher at 753.410. Furthermore, the Stoxx Europe 600 closed at 446.62, the German DAX at 15,345.00, the French CAC 40 7,087.06 and the British FTSE closed at 7,425.83 points. These are gains of 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.6% and 0.9% from the previous trading day, respectively.
Most stock markets in Asia opened mostly higher today. Investors are somewhat cautious as new talks between the U.S. and China are scheduled for tomorrow. On Wednesday, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will meet for the first time in a year. Furthermore, investors are still awaiting a U.S. inflation figure. Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened this morning at 32,726.19 the Shanghai Stock Exchange opened at 3,049.72 and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange opened at 17,400.11, this corresponds to an increase of 0.4%, an increase of 0.1% and a decrease of 0.15, respectively.
Oil prices rose again yesterday. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate increased 1.4% at $78.26. The increase was caused by OPEC revising its expectations for global oil demand this year. Oil demand is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day. The 2024 demand forecast remained unchanged at an increase of 2.2 million barrels per day.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 4.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 3.18% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In the third quarter of this year, both the economy and production in the United Kingdom remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Economists had anticipated a contraction of 0.1% for the overall economy. Additionally, production figures were revised slightly upward because of revised data for the month of October.
In September, according to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), British goods exports and imports declined. The export value decreased by 2.9% on a monthly basis, while imports decreased by 6.2%. As a result, the trade deficit for the three-month period ending in September decreased from £7.1 billion to £6.0 billion.
Moody’s has changed the outlook for the credit rating of the United States from stable to negative due to rising interest rates and doubts about the ability of the U.S. government to implement effective fiscal policies. A negative outlook implies a possible downgrade of the credit rating for ths U.S. Currently, the United States holds a ‘Triple A’ status with Moody’s, Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ in August. S&P downgraded the AAA rating in 2011 following an earlier budgetary discussion and has since maintained an AA+ rating.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 4.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 3.19% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, although the big gains from the middle of the day were largely lost towards the end of the trading day. Ultimately, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate increased in price by about 0.5% on Thursday. On a weekly basis, the oil price is under pressure with a significant loss after both Brent and WTI recorded their lowest points since July on Wednesday. Weak trade prices from China in the beginning of this week put further pressure on oil prices as the data fueled concerns about a drop in demand in one of the world’s largest economies.
Figures published on Friday by Statistics Netherlands showed that the Dutch industry produced significantly less in September on both an annual and monthly basis. Average daily production in September was 10.3% lower on an annual basis, while there was a monthly decrease of 0.9%. Meanwhile, industrial production has been declining for 9 months in a row. Most sectors produced less in September than in the same month a year earlier. Of the major industries, the machinery industry recorded the largest decline in production. The repair and installation of machines saw the largest increase in production.
The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell again last week, according to figures published by the US Department of Labor. The number of new applications fell by 3,000 to a total of 217,000. Economists expected 220,000 applications. However, the four-week average rose by 1,500 to 212,150.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 4.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.14% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In October 2023, the inflation rate in Germany, measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at 3.8%. In September 2023, the inflation rate was 4.5%. The inflation rate continued to decrease and reached its lowest level since August 2021 (also 3.8%). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reported that consumer prices remained unchanged from September 2023 in October 2023.
The interest rate on the most common U.S. residential mortgage type fell significantly last week, marking the largest drop in almost 16 months. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased by a quarter percentage point to 7.61% in the week ending November 3, the lowest in about a month. This was the most substantial weekly decline since late July 2022. The drop in rates was influenced by the U.S. Treasury’s issuance update, a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve in their November FOMC statement, and signs of a slower job market.
In September, U.S. wholesale inventories showed an upward trend, with a monthly increase of 0.2% following a previous drop of 0.1% in August. However, on an annual basis, inventories displayed a decrease of 1.2%. At the same time, wholesale sales in September exhibited a monthly rise of 2.2% and grew by 0.9% on a yearly basis.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 4.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 3.11% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
According to data provided by Eurostat, the European statistics agency, producer prices in the Eurozone showed a monthly increase of 0.5% in September, compared to a rise of 0.7% in August. However, on an annual basis, producer prices still saw a decline of 12.4% in September. This represented a deterioration compared to the annual decrease of 11.5% reported a month earlier.
In September, the United States witnessed an increase in both their exports and imports, as reported by the U.S. government. Exports rose by 2.2% to a value of $261.1 billion, while imports increased by 2.7% to $322.7 billion. These developments resulted in a 4.9% increase in the U.S. trade deficit, reaching a total of $61.5 billion. These figures exceeded expectations at $59.8 billion. Specifically, the deficit with the European Union amounted to $16.8 billion, compared to a deficit with China of $24.1 billion .
On Tuesday, the oil price showed a significant decline, reaching its lowest level in over three months. The drop is attributed to concerns about reduced demand, driven by weak export figures from China. The December future for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed 4.3% lower at $77.37 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking the lowest closing price since July 21st.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 4.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 3.16% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Chinese exports fell more than expected. This was revealed this morning by Chinese government figures. On an annual basis, exports declined by 6.4% in dollar terms, while a decline of 3.5% had been expected. In September, export figures were also down 6.2%. Chinese imports did rise 3% year-on-year, where a 4.8% decline was expected. China’s trade surplus fell nearly $20 billion, from $77.71 billion to $56.53 billion.
Australia’s central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points. This was reflected in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision earlier today. This brought the key interest rate to 4.35%. Australia’s policy interest rate has been raised by 4 percentage points since May 2022. In a statement, the bank indicated that Australia has peaked, but inflation is still too high. The Australian dollar exchange rate recorded 0.6436 U.S. dollars, down 0.8%.
South Korea’s stock market experienced its biggest one-day rise since March 2020 yesterday. The surge is caused by the announcement of the stock market regulator Financial Services Commission (FSC) that short-selling will be banned until mid-2024. The measure was introduced to restore confidence in equity markets. As a result, the Kospi, the country’s main stock index, rose 5.7%.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 4.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 3.23% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Chinese services sector saw stronger growth in October compared to September, with a purchasing managers’ index of 50.4, versus 50.2 in September. Despite this growth, the overall economy made little progress as the purchasing managers’ index for the industry declined from 50.6 in September to 49.5 in October. Consequently, the composite index dropped from 50.9 to 50.0. Caixin warns that while the recovery of the Chinese economy is visible, it lacks a solid foundation. An index above 50 indicates growth, while an index below 50 signifies contraction.
In September, German exports declined more than anticipated, with a decrease of 2.4% on a monthly basis, while economists had expected a drop of 2.0%, according to Destatis data. Simultaneously, imports also significantly decreased by 1.7%, whereas a decline of 1.3% was anticipated. On an annual basis, exports showed a decrease of 7.5%, while imports dropped by 16.6%. Germany’s adjusted trade balance amounted to 16.5 billion euros, which is 1.3 billion euros higher than economists’ expectations of 15.2 billion euros.
In September, Eurostat reported a slight increase in unemployment in the Eurozone. The unemployment rate rose from 6.4% in August to 6.5% in September. Compared to September 2022 when the unemployment rate stood at 6.0%, there has been an increase.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 4.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 3.15% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of England has once again decided not to increase the interest rate, as announced yesterday. The Bank Rate remains at 5.25%. Six out of the nine members voted in favor of this decision, while three members voted for an interest rate increase to 5.75%.
In September, orders placed at American factories exceeded expectations, as revealed in data released by the U.S. government on Thursday. Factory orders showed a monthly increase of 2.8%, compared to a 1.0% rise in the previous month. Excluding defense-related orders, they even increased by 3.2%, and excluding transportation-related orders, there was still a growth of 0.8% in September.
On Thursday, the oil price saw its first increase in three days, with a settlement at $82.46, marking a 2.5% rise in the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Meanwhile, analysts continue to monitor the conflict between Israel and Hamas, paying particular attention to any signs of Iran becoming involved in the situation.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 4.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 3.23% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The decision was unanimous. The central bank reported that inflation remains too high, and the job market remains robust. The economy performed well in the third quarter, however there is an expectation that higher interest rates will dampen growth in the coming period. The markets showed little surprise in response to this decision.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced it would issue fewer government bonds than anticipated, easing investors’ concerns and causing both bond and stock prices to rise. Following the announcement, the yield on ten-year bonds briefly dropped to 4.83%. Next week, $112 billion worth of bonds will be auctioned, slightly less than the expected $114 billion, with the proceeds used to pay off existing debt and raise new capital. The yield on ten-year bonds had risen by approximately 75 basis points since August.
In Belgium, the construction sector is also facing problems, with a nearly 20% decrease in the production of construction materials in recent months. This is a result of a reduced new construction market and concerns within the renovation sector. Higher construction costs due to rising mortgage expenses and price increases of construction materials following the COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in less work for construction companies. Additionally, there is uncertainty about the continuation of the reduced 6% VAT rate for demolition and renovation, which has reduced demand.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 4.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 3.29% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
