On Tuesday, oil futures closed higher after a four-day downward trend. The January futures for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 2.1%, closing at $76.41 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Investors continue to speculate on the potential outcomes of the upcoming meeting of OPEC+ countries regarding production restrictions in the coming months. The significant group of oil-exporting nations must reach an agreement on production quotas, but the postponement of the meeting, originally scheduled for Sunday, to Thursday, indicates discord. Traders will also closely monitor the weekly figures on U.S. trade inventories on Wednesday. The EIA is expected to announce a decrease in crude oil stockpiles by 700,000 barrels.
This year, the Chinese economy is projected to grow by 5%, as announced by the People’s Bank of China. The PBoC aims to maintain the stability of its own currency, the yuan. Additionally the bank called for economic change, stating that a growth model based on debt is deemed less effective.
The confidence of American consumers in the economy increased in November, while the figure for October turned out to be significantly lower than initially reported, according to data released on Tuesday by The Conference Board. The Consumer Confidence Index rose from 99.0 in October to 102.0 in November, where economists had initially expected an index of 101.0. The October figure was significantly downwardly revised from the previously reported 103.0. Regarding the sub-index for economic expectations for the next six months, it rose to 77.8 from a revised-downward 72.7 in October. An expectations index of less than 80 is considered a signal of a recession within a year, stated The Conference Board. The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 4.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.99% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Demand for solar panels has sharply declined in the Netherlands, leading to financial challenges for installers. Since 2022, over 25 companies in the solar panel industry have gone bankrupt, particularly impacting newcomers with limited reserves and marketing experience. Negative media coverage and uncertainty about the continuation of the solar panel reimbursement scheme have caused the decline. Despite the favourable payback period, consumers remain cautious. The downturn contrasts starkly with the busy year of 2022.
In October, the United States saw a decrease in the sale of new single-family homes compared to the previous month, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The number of sold new single-family homes declined by 5.6% on a monthly basis to 679,000 units, falling below economists’ expectations of 725,000 new homes. The September figure was also revised downward from 759,000 to 719,000. However, on an annual basis, the number of homes sold in the U.S. increased by 17.7% in October.
The German government has temporarily averted a further escalation of the debt crisis by reaching an agreement on a supplementary budget. The “Schuldenbremse,” the constitutional debt ceiling, is being suspended for 2023. This marks the fourth deactivation of the debt rule in four years. The Scholz government justifies the decision by citing the ongoing impacts of the energy crisis that emerged after Russia started the war against Ukraine in February 2022. The measure was necessary following a ruling by the German Constitutional Court, which deemed the transfer of €60 billion in unused COVID-19 aid to a climate transition fund unconstitutional.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 4.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 3.04% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
According to final figures from the German statistical office Destatis, the German economy contracted by 0.1% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter. The contraction followed an increase of 0.1% in the second quarter, after a flat period in the first quarter. On an annual basis, after adjustments for calendar effects and inflation, the economy showed a decline of 0.4%, revised from an earlier estimate of 0.3%.
The Ifo index for the German business climate rose in November, albeit not as strongly as anticipated. Data from the German research institute Ifo showed the composite index for the business climate increased from 86.9 in October to 87.3 last month, while economists had expected it to reach 87.5. The sub-index for current conditions rose from 89.2 to 89.4, whereas the sub-index for future expectations increased to 85.2, compared to 84.8 a month earlier.
According to preliminary figures from S&P Global, the U.S. industry showed a slight decline in November, with a purchasing managers’ index of 49.4, the lowest level in three months. Conversely, the service sector increased, with an index of 50.8, the highest level in four months. The composite purchasing managers’ index remained stable at 50.7, matching October. S&P Global emphasized concerns about global demand and high interest rates, despite the growth in the service sector.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 4.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 3.12% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In November, the Eurozone economy showed less contraction than anticipated, according to preliminary data from S&P Global released on Thursday. The index measuring the activity of the monetary union’s service sector reached 48.2, compared to 47.8 the previous month, surpassing the expected 48.
Consumer prices in Japan rose more sharply in October than the previous month, according to government figures released on Friday. The annual inflation rate, including the effects of fresh food and energy, reached 3.3 percent, up from 3.0 percent the month before.
On Thursday, oil prices continued to decline. Significant weekly increases in U.S. crude oil inventories, reported by both the Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum Institute, exerted downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the markets await the OPEC+ meeting, now scheduled for next Thursday. Initially, the meeting was set to take place this Sunday.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 4.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 3.10% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
According to Schroders, Dutch listed companies exhibit the lowest societal impact per earned euro, even underperforming companies established in Saudi Arabia and China. The study, utilizing 45 indicators, reveals that Spanish, German, and Danish stock funds have the most significant positive external effect per euro in revenue. The Netherlands’ low score is partly attributed to the negative influence of alcohol producers in the MSCI Netherlands Index. While there is currently no cause for concern, the research underscores the importance of evaluating the external effects of the entire economy.
Global smartphone sales show signs of recovery, according to Canalys, after a 12% decline last year. Although a 5% decline is expected in 2023, researchers predict global growth of 4% in 2024. Consumers are now more willing to spend on smartphones, and the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America are already showing growth this year. Canalys estimates that approximately 1.13 billion mobile phones will be sold globally this year, rising to 1.25 billion in 2027. The agency emphasizes that, despite the improvement, deliveries still remain over 20% below the peak of 2017.
Following a decline in September, global steel production increased again in October, according to data from the World Steel Association. In total, 71 countries produced 150.0 million tons of steel last month, marking a 0.6% rise compared to October of the previous year. China, the world’s largest steel producer, experienced a 1.8% decrease in production, while Germany noted a decline of 8.8%. Conversely, the United States and India saw increases of 3.4% and 15.1%, respectively. Japan and Russia also showed rises in steel production, whereas the European Union recorded a 7.1% decrease.The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 4.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 3.04% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The US stock markets America closd lower on Tuesday evening after the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve were published. The S&P500 index fell by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.6%. The minutes showed that US policymakers still have concerns about rising inflation, as a result of a continued strong US economy. Consequently, interest rate policy should remain restrictive for some time to come.
Sales of existing homes in the United States fell in October. This emerged on Tuesday from figures from the real estate agency NAR. The number of existing homes sold fell by 4.1% to a figure of 3.79 million on an annual basis. In advance, economists considered a figure of 3.90 million. The median sales price, however, increased by 3.4% to $391,800.
Last month, sales of new passenger cars in the European Union increased. The increase was at a higher pace than a month earlier. This was reported by the trade organization ACEA. The number of new cars sold increased last month by 14.6% year on year to 855,484. In September, sales increased by 9.2%. In the Netherlands, sales fell by 1.5%, while sales in Belgium increased by 26.6%. Sales in Germany also rose by 4.9%, while sales in France even shot up by 21.9%. Sales of electric cars increased by 36.3% and 13.2% fewer diesel cars were sold.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 4.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.05% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Conference Board reported yesterday that the leading indicators for the U.S. economy fell further in October. The Leading Economic Index, a business cycle indicator that shows the development of the economy over the next six months, came in at 103.9. This is a decline of 0.8 percent. September saw a decline of 0.7 percent. Six- and 12-month growth rates also remained negative in October.
Italian government bonds rose (and yields declined) on Monday after Moody’s Investors Service on Friday affirmed Italy’s rating to Baa3, the lowest level of investment grade, and raised its outlook from negative to stable. Ten-year government bond yields fell 4 basis points to 4.264%. The spread between German and Italian 10-year yields narrowed to 1.67 percentage points. The spread versus German Bunds is seen as an important indicator for Italian bonds.
Oil prices rose further yesterday. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate increased 2 percent to $77.83. Brent also increased with about 2 percent. The increases followed a report that Saudi Arabia will extend voluntary production cuts next year. Oil prices also closed sharply higher on Friday but recorded a fourth week of declines.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 4.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 3.08% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Final figures published by Eurostat indicated a significant decline in Eurozone inflation in October. Consumer prices rose by 2.9% annually, down from September’s 4.3%. Core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, was 4.2% in October, a crucial measure for the ECB.
In October 2023, producer prices dropped by 11.0% compared to the same period last year, with a marginal 0.1% decrease from the previous month. September saw a historic decline of 14.7%, mainly due to the peak in 2022 caused by the Ukraine war.
The US reported a 1.1% increase in building permits to 1.481 million in October, contrary to the anticipated 1.6% decline. Simultaneously, housing starts also rose according to government data, surprising with growth in both permits and construction activity.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 4.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 3.08% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In October, U.S. import prices experienced a more significant decline than initially anticipated, primarily due to considerably lower energy import prices, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. Import prices showed a decrease of 0.8% on a monthly basis, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Initially, a price increase of 0.1% was reported for September. Analysts had originally expected a decline of 0.3% in October.
On an annual basis, construction revenue increased in the Netherlands in the third quarter, despite a decrease in the number of issued building permits. This was reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on Thursday. The revenue showed a growth of 6.4% in the third quarter compared to the same period a year earlier.
On Thursday, the oil price dropped significantly, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate declining 5% at a settlement of $72.90. A day earlier, on Wednesday, WTI already declined after it was revealed that U.S. oil inventories had increased by 17.5 million barrels in the past two weeks.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 4.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 3.08% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced that it will maintain the interest rate on its medium-term loans of €184 billion at 2.50%, resulting in a net injection of €76.2 billion into the banking system because of the expiration of loans amounting to €108 billion later this week. This marks the largest support measure in over six years, responding to ongoing economic challenges, particularly in the real estate sector. Despite positive indicators such as industrial production, concerns persist about the real estate market. China is also considering providing €127 billion in cheap loans for the struggling real estate sector. China aims for a growth target of 5% for the year despite global economic challenges, and potential policy changes are anticipated at the upcoming Communist Party top meeting.
In October, consumer prices in the United Kingdom rose less sharply than the previous month and slightly below economists’ expectations, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). On a yearly basis, prices increased by 4.6%, slightly below the anticipated 4.7%, compared to a 6.7% rise in the previous month. Month-on-month, prices remained stable after a 0.5% increase in September.
In September, exports in the eurozone experienced a significant decline, while imports fell even more sharply, according to data from Eurostat on Wednesday. Adjusted for calendar effects, exports decreased by 9.3% on a yearly basis, while imports dropped by 23.9%. As a result, there was a trade surplus of 10 billion euros, compared to a deficit of 36.6 billion euros in September 2022.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 4.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 3.12% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
