The Dutch economy showed a recovery in the fourth quarter of 2023, with growth of 0.3 percent compared to the third quarter, according to data reported by CBS (Statistics Netherlands). Nevertheless, GDP contracted by 0.5 percent on an annual basis. Consumer spending, supported by government consumption and investments, primarily contributed to the economic upturn after three quarters of contraction. In December, Dutch households increased their spending by 0.3 percent year-on-year, with more money spent on services and less on goods. The figures have been adjusted for inflation and shopping days.
The economy in the eurozone remained stable in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, as indicated by Eurostat data. The economy showed neither growth nor contraction from the previous quarter but did rise by 0.1 percent on an annual basis. The stagnation aligns with economists’ expectations.
U.S. oil stocks showed a significant increase, while inventories of gasoline, heating oil, and diesel decreased, according to figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The capacity utilization of refineries in the U.S. decreased to 80.6 percent.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 3.88% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In January, the number of Dutch companies going bankrupt decreased compared to December, but the strong upward trend persists, according to CBS. The number of bankruptcies increased by more than 60% compared to last year. The trade sector had the most bankruptcies, driven by those in the hospitality industry.
Investors have become more optimistic about Germany’s prospects as the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany rose to 19.9 points in February 2024, up from 15.2 in January. However, the assessment of the current economic situation fell to -81.7 points, the lowest since June 2020. Investors are optimistic about Germany’s future amid falling inflation and anticipated interest rate cuts. Despite this, analysts foresee a sluggish recovery for the German economy, emphasizing structural challenges.
Consumer prices in the US in January rose more than predicted according to the Department of Labor. Consumer prices increased by 3.1 percent annually in January, compared to 3.4 percent the previous month. Economists had expected an inflation rate of 2.9 percent. This supports the caution of the Fed regarding interest rate cuts despite ongoing public pressure.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The US ten-year yield dropped slightly to 4.15% yesterday, while the euro/dollar traded around 1.0770. Analysts anticipate a resilient performance of the dollar in the short term, caused by global growth slowdown and high yields on US bonds. However, expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the second quarter may weaken the dollar.
European stock markets rose, fueled by remarks made by ECB official Fabio Panetta about imminent interest rate cuts. The AEX reached another record high, climbing 0.4% to 854.88 points. The Stoxx Europe 600 index and the German DAX showed similar gains, while the French CAC 40 and the British FTSE exhibited slight fluctuations.
Sharp declines in commercial real estate were recorded in Germany, with a downturn of 12.1% in the final quarter of 2023, particularly in office properties. This trend, documented in the quarterly report of the Verband deutscher Pfandbriefbanken (vdp), signals challenging times for the real estate market in the country.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices rose further on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate settling at $76.84, up 0.8%, and Brent crude reaching over $82 after a rise of over 0.5%, amidst continued concerns over the situation in the Middle East, leading to a weekly increase of more than 6%. The geopolitical tensions, highlighted by the rejection of a ceasefire by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the killing of a senior Hezbollah member in Baghdad by a U.S. drone strike, contribute to fears of a US-Iran conflict, yet commodity analysts see prices staying within a range due to alternating focus on demand worries and potential supply disruptions, despite OPEC’s efforts supporting oil prices.
German inflation declined to 2.9 percent year-on-year in January from 3.7 percent the previous month, confirming the preliminary figures released earlier, according to final data from the German Federal Statistical Office, Destatis. Despite the annual decrease, consumer prices saw a marginal monthly increase of 0.2 percent in January.
The Dutch industrial production continued to decline in December, though at a significantly slower rate with a 3.3 percent decrease year-on-year, compared to the sharper declines of 9.4 percent in November and 12.0 percent in October, as reported by Statistics Netherlands. Despite the ongoing twelve-month downward trend, there was a month-to-month increase of 6.8 percent in the final month of 2023.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.89% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Good morning,
Wholesale inventories in the United States rose in December as expected, with a 0.4% increase on a monthly basis and a 2.7% decrease annually. Wholesale sales also saw an uptick, rising by 0.7% on a monthly basis and 1.6% annually.
The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 218,000, below the expectation of 220,000. However, the four-week moving average increased by 3,750 to 212,250, while the number of extended benefit claims dropped to 1,871,000.
Oil prices surged, with West Texas Intermediate reaching $76.22 per barrel and Brent nearly hitting $82 per barrel, driven by ongoing concerns over the Middle East, particularly after recent developments in Gaza. Prices also rose on Wednesday caused by a decline in gasoline stocks.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.74% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. trade deficit in December rose slightly more than expected to $62.2 billion from a revised figure of $61.9 billion the previous month, surpassing analysts’ projections of $62.1 billion. Exports increased by 1.5% to $258.2 billion, while imports climbed by 1.3% to $320.4 billion.
Officials from the Federal Reserve are considering lowering interest rates in light of slowing inflation. However, the decision may not be made immediately and progress towards reducing price hikes will need to be sustained before any action is taken. The Fed also emphasizes their independence from political influence and is committed to maintaining integrity in their decision making process.
Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.5 million barrels to 427.4 million barrels, while gasoline, heating oil, and diesel stocks decreased. Gasoline inventories dropped by 3.1 million barrels to 251.0 million barrels, and distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel, fell by 3.2 million barrels to 127.6 million barrels as refinery utilization slightly decreased from 82.9% to 82.4%.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The euro was slightly weaker against the dollar on Tuesday, with the dollar sustained by strong macro-economic data. Analysts cited strong U.S. services sector purchasing manager indexes as a reason for a stronger dollar and noted that February is typically a strong month for the dollar. Meanwhile, other strategists question how long the dollar strength can last, suggesting the rally may be nearing an end.
German factory orders saw an unexpected significant rise in December, growing by 8.9 percent month-on-month – contrary to analysts’ expectations of a 0.5 percent decline – and increased by 2.7 percent year-on-year.
Retail sales in the eurozone decreased in December, with a month-on-month decline of 1.1 percent after a 0.3 percent increase in November, and a year-on-year drop of 0.8 percent.
The 6M Euribor increased with 7 basis points to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
According to data from Eurostat, the European statistical office, producer prices in the Eurozone experienced a significantly sharper decline in December. On a monthly basis, a decrease of 0.8% was reported, compared to the 0.3% drop in November. On an annual basis, producer prices in December fell by 10.6%, indicating an acceleration from the 8.8% decline the previous month and the 9.4% decrease in October.
On Monday, data from the German statistical office, Destatis, revealed a decline in German exports and imports in December. The export figures showed a month-on-month decrease of 4.6%, while imports experienced an even sharper decline of 6.7%. On an annual basis, exports also saw a 4.6% decrease, while imports exhibited a more substantial drop of 12.4%, attributed in part to lower commodity prices.
On Monday, the Netherlands raised €2.58 billion through two treasury bond issuances, one of which involved a reopening, as reported by the agency of the Ministry of Finance. The short-term bonds have maturity dates of May 30, 2024, and July 30, 2024, with yields of 3.765% and 3.71%, respectively.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Global credit spreads are surging, experiencing the largest weekly increase in four months due to concerns over the real estate markets. Banks are raising bad-loan provisions, causing corporate bond spreads to widen, particularly in the US and Asia, as higher interest rates exert downward pressure on commercial property values. Analysts recommend adding hedges to credit portfolios in response to the growing negativity and risks in the market.
In January, prices of basic food items such as grains and meat decreased, with more than 10% compared to the previous year. Abundant grain harvests and ample corn stocks led to competition and price drops. Conversely, the sugar price rose due to drought in key producing countries. Changes in world food prices do not directly influence prices in Dutch supermarkets due to longstanding price agreements between sellers and producers. However, prolonged low prices could eventually impact grocery costs.
Chinese investors and households turned to gold amid local property and stock market turbulence, causing record-high prices. China led global gold jewelry and investment flows in 2023 amid disappointing markets post-Covid lockdowns. Strong central bank demand and a 28% rise in Chinese investment offset Europe’s decline. Analysts highlight Chinese demand as a key, underappreciated factor in gold price trends.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.83% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 2.63% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
On Thursday, as expected by the market, the Bank of England maintained the Bank Rate at 5.25%. The decision was once again not unanimous, with two bankers voting for an interest rate increase and one voting for a rate reduction. The remaining six members voted to keep the interest rate at its current level.
In January, consumer prices in the Netherlands experienced a significant year-on-year increase, as indicated by a preliminary estimate from Statistics Netherlands on Thursday. The price level rose by 3.2% compared to the same month last year, following a 1.2% increase the previous month. The inflation surge was primarily driven by the price developments in food and services.
In the week ending January 27, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States increased, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. The number of new unemployment benefit claims rose by 9,000 to 224,000, surpassing economists’ expectations, which were at 214,000.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.55% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
