West Texas Intermediate (WTI) experienced a decline of up to 4.3%, falling below $69 per barrel, marking its lowest point since late June. The persistent decrease extends over seven consecutive weeks, despite OPEC and its allies implementing new production cuts, failing to arrest the downward trend. The ongoing pressure on prices is caused by emerging indications that crude supplies remain abundant. Russia’s seaborne crude exports registered their highest weekly average since early July, while a U.S. government agency revised its oil output estimate for the year upward by 30,000 barrels per day compared to last month’s projection. The spreads between monthly contracts persist in reflecting an oversupply scenario. The front end of the Brent futures curve closed this week at its lowest level since June, emphasizing the challenges posed by surplus oil in the market.
Consumer prices in the United States rose in November as expected, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor released on Tuesday. Consumer prices increased by 3.1% on a year-on-year basis last month, compared to 3.2% in the previous month. Economists had anticipated an inflation rate of 3.1%. The core inflation, which adjusts for food and energy prices, remained at 4.0% on a year-on-year basis both in November and October, in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.1%, and core prices increased by 0.3%. This compares to 0.0% and 0.2% in October.
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index increased further in December, as indicated by data from the German research institute. The ZEW Expectations Index rose from 9.8 in November to 12.8 this month, surpassing the market’s expectation of an index of 8.0. Additionally, the index for the current situation improved from minus 79.8 in November to minus 77.1 in December.The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.96% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.71% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer goods and services were 1.6 percent more expensive in November compared to the same month a year earlier. This was reported by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) based on final figures, which are consistent with the earlier reported quick estimate. This marked a return to price increases after deflation in October when the average price level dropped by 0.4 percent.
On Monday, Wall Street closed higher, heading towards the Fed decision later this week. Tesla and Apple are experiencing a pullback. The AEX index has continued its upward trend, with tech companies Adyen and ASML particularly seeing gains.
This morning, it was announced that the Dutch government intends to further reduce its stake in ABN Amro. The ABN AMRO stock is currently trading around its lowest level of the year, and the sale is expected to have a negative impact on the stock price. No specific timeframe has been set for the completion of the sale.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.94% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.75% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In October, the Dutch industry significantly reduced its production, witnessing an annual decline of 11.1%. Most sectors experienced decreases, notably the chemical industry, while machine repair and installation showed an increase. On a monthly basis, production decreased with 0.5%.
In November, U.S. employment exceeded expectations with a growth of 199,000 jobs. Unemployment dropped to 3.7%, while hourly wage growth and annual earnings remained on track. Revised job figures for September and October were adjusted to 262,000 and 150,000, respectively.
German inflation dropped in November to 3.2% annually, down from October’s 3.8%. Monthly, prices declined by 0.4%, compared to a stable level earlier.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.95% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 2.74% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In the third quarter, the economy of the Eurozone experienced a slight contraction compared to the previous quarter. The gross domestic product decreased by 0.1% in the last quarter. On an annual basis, the Eurozone did not grow in the third quarter, following a 0.5% growth in the preceding quarter. This growth figure has been revised downward from the initially reported 0.1%.
The pressure on oil prices is increasing, with Brent crude dropping just below $75 per barrel on Thursday, a level not seen in the past five months. The American counterpart, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has also become significantly cheaper, hovering just below $70 per barrel. While oil prices peaked at nearly $97 per barrel for Brent crude in September, macroeconomic concerns are currently exerting downward pressure on oil prices.
In October, the Dutch industry significantly reduced its production, according to data from Statistics Netherlands. On an annual basis, the average daily production of the Dutch industry decreased by 11.1%. In September, production declined with 11.0%. The production has been decreasing for ten consecutive months now.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.95% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In November, data from the Chinese government revealed an unexpected 0.5% year-on-year increase in export in dollars, contrary to economists’ expectations. Simultaneously, imports decreased by 0.6%, deviating from the predicted 3.0% growth. The Chinese trade surplus rose to $68.39 billion, exceeding the anticipated $57.1 billion. Both in dollars and yuan, exports increased by 0.5% and 1.7%, respectively, while imports in yuan grew by 0.6%.
In October, the deficit on the U.S. trade balance increased, as indicated by data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The deficit rose from $61.2 billion in September to $64.3 billion in October, slightly higher than the expected $64.1 billion according to analysts. Export decreased by 1.0% to $258.8 billion, while imports increased by 0.2% to $323.0 billion. The trade deficit with the European Union was $19.2 billion, and with China, there was a deficit of $63.8 billion.
In October, Dutch households spent less compared to the same period last year, according to data from Statistics Netherlands. Expenditures decreased by 0.2% on a yearly basis. Statistics Netherlands reports a reduction in spending on goods but an increase in spending on services. In September, there was a larger decrease in expenditures on a yearly basis, namely 1.9%. Statistics Netherlands emphasizes that consumption figures are volume figures, adjusted for price changes. Additionally, Statistics Netherlands notes that the conditions for consumption in November were less favorable than in October.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.95% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.68% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Moody’s has revised the outlook for China’s credit rating from stable to negative, while maintaining the A1 rating. This adjustment is driven by concerns about the slowing economic growth, increasing debt burden of local governments, and the troubled real estate sector, as indicated in a report released on Tuesday. Moody’s anticipates that the world’s second-largest economy will grow with 4.0% in 2024 and 2025. In the subsequent five years, economic growth is expected to slow to 3.8%, as predicted by the credit rating agency. In the third quarter, China’s gross domestic product showed a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, marking a deceleration from the 6.3% growth observed in the second quarter.
In October, producer prices in the Eurozone showed a further increase, albeit at a slower pace. According to data from Eurostat, the European statistical office, the monthly rise in producer prices was 0.2%, compared to a 0.5% increase in September. On a yearly basis, producer prices in October decreased by 9.4%, indicating a decline from the 12.4% drop the previous month. Excluding energy prices, producer prices exhibited a monthly decrease of 0.2% in October, with a corresponding year-on-year decline of 0.2%.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of job openings in the United States decreased in October. The number of job openings in October was 8.73 million, down from 9.35 million in September and 10.47 million in October 2022.The 6M Euribor decreased with 5 basis points to 3.95% compared to previous business day.
The 10Y Swap decreased with 10 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The price of gold reached a record high hitting $2135 per troy ounce, largely influenced by a weakening dollar. The ongoing rise in gold prices is attributed to speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve might begin lowering interest rates in the coming months, based upon statements by Chairman Jerome Powell. The upcoming U.S. jobs report on Friday will have an impact on the Fed’s interest rate decisions.
In October, German exports declined slightly, but due to a more significant drop in imports, the trade surplus increased. This was revealed on Monday by the German statistical office Destatis. On a yearly basis, exports decreased by 8.1 percent, while imports saw a more substantial decline of 16.3 percent.
A large number of intensive livestock farmers in the Netherlands are actively seeking government subsidies to cease their farming operations. About 24% of Dutch pig farmers express a desire to discontinue their businesses, with government support. Minister Christianne van der Wal expresses satisfaction with farmer engagement in the voluntary cessation programs, emphasizing that any reduction in nitrogen emissions is beneficial. She commits to increasing the budget if needed to support the farm buyout programs, aimed at addressing the ongoing nitrogen crisis.’
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 4.00% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.83% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In November, the Dutch industry showed a milder decline per S&P Global. The purchasing managers’ index rose to 44.9 from 43.8 due to weak customer demand, reducing production and orders. Declining business confidence led to workforce and inventory cuts, with lowered prices for competitiveness as the industry shrank below 50.
S&P Global’s final figures revealed that the Eurozone industry contracted less in November. The services sector index increased to 44.2 from an earlier 43.1, revised from the preliminary 43.8. Germany, France, and Spain saw similar reductions.
Internationally, Japan and the United States also faced a decrease of the industry. China, after a month of decline, exhibited growth in November. Its purchasing managers’ index rose from 49.5 to 50.7, despite the government reporting a decrease from 49.5 to 49.4 in industrial purchasing data.
Friday saw the euro slightly above 1.09 dollars due to cooling inflation in the Eurozone. Currency trader Paul Erdmann of Ebury highlighted the impact of ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell’s potential comments on recent inflation and interest rates. ABN AMRO forecasts one or two interest rate hikes by Sweden’s central bank to manage inflation. Next week focuses on global service sector data and US employment figures. The euro rose by 0.1% to 1.0901 dollars, while the pound and Swedish krona fluctuated.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 4.03% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In November, inflation in the Eurozone once again exhibited a downward trend, as indicated by the preliminary data released by Eurostat on Thursday. Consumer prices recorded a 2.4% increase last month, marking a decrease from the 2.9% in October. Economist forecasts had anticipated a modest decline in inflation to 2.8%.
The unemployment rate in the Eurozone remained stable in October, as reported by the statistical agency Eurostat on Thursday. The unemployment rate, just like in September, stood at 6.5% versus 6.6% in October 2022.
In the week of November 25th, the number of new claims for unemployment benefits in the United States increased, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. New claims for unemployment benefits rose by 7,000 to reach 218,000, slightly below the expected figure of 220,000.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 4.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.94% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In November, inflation (HICP) in the Netherlands rose to 1.4%, lower than the expected 1.6%, according to preliminary figures from CBS. In October inflation was still at -1%. According to the Dutch definition, inflation (CPI) is 1.6%, up from -0.4% last month. Inflation poses a challenge to the European Central Bank. The official inflation figure is affected by a changed calculation method by CBS, which may understate current inflation.
The U.S. economy performed stronger in the third quarter, data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed on Wednesday. The economy grew 5.2%, compared with 2.1% in the second quarter. Earlier estimates held for growth of 4.9%. The PCE consumer price index also showed an increase, up 2.8%, from 2.5% in the second quarter.
Consumers in Japan have become more optimistic, according to recent figures from the Japanese government. In November, the confidence index rose from 35.7 to 36.1 from October. Three of the four sub-indexes showed increases, with only the component concerning income showing a slight decline on a monthly basis.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 4.03% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.93% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
