The number of new unemployment benefit claims in the United States increased in the week of December 23, according to data released on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor. The number of new claims rose by 12,000 to 218,000, exceeding the expected 210,000.

The oil prices declined on Thursday evening, partly due to reduced concerns about disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate closed at $71.77, reflecting a 3.2% decrease.

In response to the recent water issues, the Union of Water Authorities emphasizes the need for significantly more financial resources to protect the country from water overflow. The latest cost estimates for the High Water Protection Program until 2050 reveal a notable shift. While initially €12.6 billion was estimated as the required amount to get the primary water defenses in order, it is now indicated that a sum of €24 billion is required.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.89% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.42% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

In November, industrial profits in China saw double-digit growth due to an improvement in the manufacturing sector. Despite this growth, weak demand continues to constrain expectations for business growth, prompting calls for more macroeconomic policy support. The 29.5% profit increase follows a 2.7% rise in October, but there is still an overall decline of 4.4% for the year so far compared to the same period last year. The growth is attributed to pro-growth measures, a low statistical base from last year, and seasonal factors.

Starting January 2024, the dividend tax rate for directors and major shareholders rises to 33%, contributing to increased dividend payouts in 2023 alongside other tax changes. To pre-empt the higher tax from January 1, DGA’s are paying themselves more dividends early. These advance payouts might generate temporarily higher tax revenue for the treasury than anticipated.

In November, economic activity accelerated in the United States, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.03 from -0.66 in October, indicating above-average growth. All four broad indicators, including industrial production and employment, showed improvements. This fosters optimism about an economy that may be able to avoid a recession.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 2.38% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The British economy slightly contracted in Q3 according to new data from the ONS, the UK’s statistical agency. It shrank by 0.1%, contrary to earlier expectations of stability. Q2 of 2023 also showed zero growth, previously reported as a 0.2% increase.

In November, existing home prices in the Netherlands fell by 0.9% annually, a milder drop compared to the previous month’s 2.3% decline. Monthly, prices rose by 0.5% in November, less than the 0.7% increase in October. Since the low point in June 2013, housing prices rose, peaked in August 2022, then declined until June 2023 before rising again. In November, prices were nearly 93% higher compared to the June 2013 low. The Kadaster recorded nearly 1% more home transactions in November compared to the previous year, yet over the first eleven months of 2023, sales were over 5% lower than the same period in 2022.

In November, the US core inflation experienced a more significant annual decline than expected, dropping from 3.4% to 3.2%. Monthly, core prices increased by 0.1%. Regular inflation measured by the PCE decreased from 2.9% to 2.6%. US incomes grew by 0.4% monthly, meeting expectations, while consumer spending increased by 0.2%, lower than the predicted 0.3%.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.45% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. government is considering an increase in import tariffs on Chinese electric cars. This measure is being contemplated to safeguard the domestic production and sales of American cars. It appears that the Chinese auto industry continues to be capable of producing cars at lower costs than American automakers. In response, the Biden administration has already imposed a 25% import tariff on a Chinese automaker like BYD. There is now also the possibility that this tariff may be further raised.

On Thursday, final figures released by the U.S. Department of Commerce revealed that the growth of the U.S. economy in the third quarter was lower than initially reported. The economy showed a growth of 4.9% in the third quarter, as opposed to the previously reported 2.1% in the second quarter.

Recent government statistics indicate that the annual increase in consumer prices in Japan was lower in November compared to the previous month. The inflation rate, including the impact of fresh food and energy, now stands at 2.8%, as opposed to 3.3% one month earlier. Inflation has been above the Bank of Japan’s targeted level of 2% for nineteen consecutive months.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.44% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

In November, consumer prices in the United Kingdom rose less sharply than in the previous month, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). On a yearly basis, the increase was 4.2 percent, while economists had expected a rise of 4.4 percent. In the previous month, the price level had risen by 4.7 percent. On a monthly basis, prices decreased by 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase in October. Producer prices fell by 2.6 percent on a yearly basis in November, which was also the case in October.

In December, the confidence of American consumers in the economy rose more than expected, according to data from The Conference Board. The Consumer Confidence Index increased from 101.0 in November to 110.7 in December, while economists had expected an increase to 104.5. The November figure was slightly revised downward from a previously reported 102.0. The sub-index for economic expectations for the next six months rose to 85.6, compared to 77.4 in November. An expectations index of less than 80 is considered a signal of a potential recession within a year, according to The Conference Board. The sub-index for the current situation also showed a strong increase, from 136.5 to 148.5.

In November, unemployment in the Netherlands continued to decline, according to figures from Statistics Netherlands. The unemployment rate decreased from 3.6 percent in October to 3.5 percent in November, after reaching 3.7 percent in September. The average number of unemployed individuals decreased by 2,000 per month over the past three months, reaching 357,000 in November. At the same time, an average of 15,000 people per month found paid employment. In November, there were 3.6 million individuals aged 15 to 75 without paid work.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.44% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

On Tuesday, eurozone bond yields declined, reversing the previous day’s increase, as investors anticipated the possibility of significant interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank next year. Germany’s 10-year yield was last down by 7 basis points (bps) at 2.01%. This was just above the nine-month low reached the day before, before ultimately rising by 6 bps.

In November, inflation in the eurozone further decreased, as indicated by a preliminary estimate in the definitive figures released by Eurostat on Tuesday. Consumer prices rose by 2.4% last month, as previously reported. In October, this figure stood at 2.9%. The core inflation rate, a crucial gauge for the European Central Bank (ECB), was 3.6% on a yearly basis in November, compared to 4.2% a month earlier. This measure excludes the volatile prices of energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco. On a monthly basis, consumer prices in the eurozone declined by 0.6% in November, slightly more than the expected decrease of 0.5%.

The European Union announced on Tuesday morning that it will not impose import duties on the import of American steel and aluminum until March 31, 2025. This decision was made public by the European Commission. The previously imposed import duties by the EU during Donald Trump’s presidency were in response to the tariffs imposed by Washington on European steel and aluminum. In 2022, Brussels suspended these duties until the end of 2023, and it has now been decided to extend this suspension until March 31, 2025. In exchange, Washington is waiving certain quotas on steel and aluminum from Europe. The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.49% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Low economic growth

The Dutch central bank (DNB) has lowered its economic forecast, predicting minimal growth for the Netherlands in the coming years due to global economic challenges, including a slowdown in world trade. GDP is expected to rise by only 0.3% next year. DNB attributes the sluggish performance to a weakened world economy, citing factors such as increased interest rates affecting spending and investments, particularly in China.

Nippon Steel Acquisition of US Steel

The Japanese steel giant Nippon Steel made a bid of $55 per share for US Steel on Monday, a significant premium of approximately 40 percent over Friday’s closing price and a premium of more than 55 percent compared to the initial offer from the American Cleveland Cliffs. The transaction has been approved by both boards of directors.

Japanese Interest Rate remains Negative

The Bank of Japan kept the main interest rate unchanged during the monetary meeting on Tuesday, as indicated by the decision of the Japanese central bank. This means that the short-term interest rate remains at minus 0.1 percent. The decision was unanimous.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.55% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

In the third quarter of 2023, labor costs in the eurozone increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and in the EU by 5.7%, according to Eurostat. Croatia showed the largest rise of 16.3%, followed by Hungary and Bulgaria. Belgium saw a rise of 7.9%, while the increase in the Netherlands was 6.4%.

S&P Global released preliminary data for December on the eurozone and the UK. The eurozone experienced a drop in the services sector index to 48.1, below the expected 48.2. The industrial index remained steady at 44.2. The UK exhibited economic growth with a rise in the services sector index to 52.7 and a composite index of 51.7, surpassing the predicted 51.0.

The People’s Bank of China injects 1.45 trillion yuan (approximately 200 billion euros) into the economy, as announced by the Chinese central bank. The interest rate remains at 2.5%. The injection includes one-year loans, bolstering the economy by 800 billion yuan, comprising of 650 billion yuan in medium-term loans. Additionally, short-term loans of 50 billion yuan were issued at a 1.8% interest rate, adding to the existing 197 billion yuan under that loan.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.94% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 10 basis points to 2.49% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde emphasized during an explanation of the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday that there are currently no plans to lower interest rates. She stated that there has been no discussion about lowering interest rates and reiterated that the ECB will continue to depend on incoming data for its policy decisions.

On Thursday, the ECB also unveiled new economic projections. The eurozone’s economy is expected to grow by 0.6% this year and by 0.8% next year. In both 2025 and 2026, the gross domestic product is projected to increase by 1.5%.

For 2023, the central bank anticipates an average inflation rate of 5.4%. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.7% next year and further to 2.1% in 2025. The ECB believes that by 2026, inflation will fall below 2%.

On Thursday, the Bank of England announced that it has once again decided not to raise interest rates, with a majority of the votes. The Bank Rate remains unchanged at 5.25%. As stated by the Bank of England, inflation has decreased as expected, but key indicators for sustained inflation in the United Kingdom remain elevated.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.95% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.59% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The U.S. Federal Reserve anticipates a 0.75% decrease in the policy rate next year, while the current rate remains unchanged within a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The markets responded positively; during the press conference, the S&P 500 index rose by over 1%, and interest rates also declined. Fed Chair Powell expects no further interest rate hikes and envisions inflation under control by 2026 without a recession. He emphasizes that the battle against inflation is not yet won and seeks more confirmation.

Argentina is adapting to the 54% mega-devaluation implemented by President Javier Milei to combat the economic crisis and inflation. The devaluation, part of a cost-cutting package, has garnered support from financial markets and the IMF, but will impact the population financially in the short term. The official exchange rate is now 800 pesos per U.S. dollar, compared to nearly 400 previously. The devaluation aims to boost exports and enhance economic competitiveness. Higher import taxes aim to improve the trade balance and restore dollar reserves.

On Thursday morning, most Asian markets showed gains following new record levels on Wall Street. However, the Japanese Nikkei 225 declined by almost 1%, influenced by the stronger yen in response to expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, impacting the competitiveness of Japanese exporters. Conversely, Sydney and Seoul rose by 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively. Hong Kong and New Delhi gained around 1%, while Shanghai recorded a slight decline.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.96% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 2.64% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.