Industrial production in the eurozone dropped more than expected in January. This was revealed on Wednesday by figures from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Industrial production in the eurozone fell by 3.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, whereas economists had anticipated a decrease of 1.1 percent. On an annual basis, production dropped by 6.7 percent against an expected contraction of 2.1 percent.
Yesterday, the British official statistics bureau reported that industrial production in the United Kingdom declined in January, as had been predicted. Production decreased by 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, following an increase of 0.6 percent in December. Analysts had predicted a production decline of 0.1 percent for January. The British goods export also dipped slightly in January. The value of the exports fell by 0.5 percent on a month-over-month basis. In contrast, imports rose by 2.0 percent. The trade balance deficit increased by 2.2 billion pounds to 13.8 billion pounds in the three months leading up to January.
In the United States, crude oil inventories fell last week, along with gasoline stocks. In the week ending March 8, crude oil inventories dropped by 1.5 million barrels to 447.0 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 5.7 million barrels to 234.1 million barrels. However, inventories of heating oil and diesel increased by 0.9 million barrels to 117.9 million barrels. The capacity utilization of refineries went up from 84.9 percent to 86.8 percent.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.
Confidence among small business owners in the United States declined marginally in February, with the confidence index remaining below the historical average for the 26th consecutive month. Inflation and high costs persist even as the labor market shows signs of improvement, making hiring and retention somewhat easier for small businesses.
The U.S. consumer price inflation for February exceeded economists’ expectations, rising to 3.2 percent year-over-year, with core inflation reaching 3.8 percent. Monthly increases for both consumer and core prices were consistent at 0.4 percent.
OPEC maintains its expectations for an increase in global oil demand, projecting higher production of 2.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and an additional production of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, while non-OPEC countries’ production is expected to rise, and global economic growth forecasts have been slightly upgraded. Despite these projections, oil prices were trading lower on Tuesday, both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.89% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.59% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Crude oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday due to ongoing concerns about demand from China. The price of a barrel of WTI fell 2.5% on a weekly basis, while Brent lost 1.1%. Analysts partly attribute the stability in prices to production cuts by OPEC+ members. Despite the recent agreement to extend voluntary production cuts into the second quarter, scepticism remains about the ability of OPEC and its allies to adhere to these cuts.
Bitcoin surged to a record high above $72,000 on Monday, continuing its strong performance. Stimulated by the introduction of new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, the cryptocurrency’s remarkable strength underscores the increasing confidence and demand in the market. Analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook, despite occasional fluctuations, as it continues to attract investors seeking alternative assets in the face of global economic uncertainty.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors awaited crucial inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The Consumer Price Index report which will published today holds significance, particularly after Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed’s desire for more confidence in inflation cooling before adjusting borrowing costs. The market is now bracing for this key data, as it could significantly influence the Fed’s policy decisions and subsequent market movements in the coming days.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.58% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The final measurement of economic growth in the fourth quarter of the Eurozone revealed a modest annual growth of 0.1 percent. The economy’s growth over 2023 did undergo a change from 0.5 percent to 0.4 percent, while for the third quarter there was a change from unchanged to 0.1 percent annual growth.
German producer prices declined less on a yearly basis in January, with a decrease of 4.4 percent, and the German industry produced 5.5 percent less in January compared to the previous year, which was even lower than expected.
The official U.S. jobs report indicated a significantly stronger job growth than expected in February, with an increase of 275,000 jobs. This was a positive surprise compared to the anticipated rise of 198,000 jobs.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.56% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Asian equity markets showed a strong increase on Friday, buoyed by record levels on Wall Street and an optimistic sentiment surrounding the AI sector.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged to new record highs, driven by increasing hopes of decreasing inflation and significant gains in the technology sector. The European Central Bank’s downward revisions in annual inflation and growth forecasts, coupled with a stable key interest rate, contributed to investor optimism.
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged despite declining inflation expectations. ECB President Lagarde’s explanation provided insight into the monetary policy direction, while economic projections were revised with slightly lower growth. The eurozone faced moderate economic prospects and an expected inflation slowdown, impacting markets.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.60% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In January 2024, figures published by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) indicated a modest increase in consumer spending in the Netherlands, by 0.3% compared to the previous year, signaling sustained economic stability. Eurostat revealed a slight rise in retail sales in the Eurozone, with an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis. However, a year-on-year comparison shows a decrease of 1% in retail trade, suggesting challenges within the sector.
In the United States, the private sector created 140,000 new jobs in February, according to ADP, which is just below the forecast of 150,000. Although the increase fell short of expectations, the annual wage increase of 5.1% indicates a resilient labor market. Employees who changed jobs experienced an average wage increase of 7.6%.
U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels to a total of 448.5 million barrels. Refined product stocks declined, with a decrease in gasoline inventories of 4.5 million barrels to 239.7 million barrels and a decline in inventories of heating oil and diesel by 4.1 million barrels to 117 million barrels. These shifts coincided with a rise in refinery utilization rates from 81.5% to 84.9%.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Eurozone producer prices fell more than expected in January, primarily due to lower energy prices, with a monthly decrease of 0.9 percent and an annual drop of 8.6 percent. Excluding energy, producer prices saw a modest monthly increase of 0.2 percent but still decreased 1.5 percent year-on-year.
The Spanish economy continues to grow robustly, with the services sector expanding significantly in February, reaching a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 54.7, the highest since May 2023, up from 52.1 the previous month. Similarly, the industrial PMI also increased, indicating growth from 49.2 to 51.5, with the composite index climbing to 53.9 in February, an index above 50 suggests expansion.
The French services sector contracted less in February, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increasing to 48.4 from 45.4 the previous month, according to final figures from S&P Global. The composite index, which also includes the French manufacturing sector, rose from 44.6 to 48.1, indicating a movement towards stabilization despite both sectors remaining below the 50 threshold.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Netherlands raised 2.39 billion euros with two short-term loans, the Ministry of Finance reported on Monday. The first loan, maturing on June 27, 2024, offers a yield of 3.75 percent, raising 1.29 billion euros. The outstanding amount is 3.77 billion euros. The second loan, maturing on August 29, 2024, raised 1.11 billion euros, also offering a yield of 3.75 percent. The initial target for both auctions was set at 1.0 to 1.5 billion euros. Subscriptions totalled 1.95 billion euros for the reopening and 1.40 billion euros for the new loan.
Bitcoin surged to a two-year high on Monday, surpassing $65,000 as a wave of investment brought it within reach of record levels. It reached a peak of $65,537 early in Europe, having already hit a new two-year high in Asian trading. Currently up 4% at $65,045, Bitcoin hit a record $68,999.99 in November 2021. The cryptocurrency, with the largest market value, has risen by 50% this year, with a significant portion of the increase occurring in recent weeks as inflows into U.S.-listed bitcoin funds surged.
At the start of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Qiang announced an increase in defence spending by over 7%. Additionally, Beijing will issue $139 billion in long-term government bonds to support the economy. Notably, Li’s language regarding the intended reunification with Taiwan differed during the assembly. The main points shared by Chinese Premier Li Qiang during the opening of the National People’s Congress included an economic growth target of around 5%, increased defence spending, reduced energy consumption, and billions allocated to bolster the economy. The assembly, known as “The Two Sessions,” gathered around three thousand delegates in Beijing to discuss new plans, laws, and budgets for the upcoming week.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In February, the industry in the Eurozone shrank according to final figures from S&P Global, with a purchasing managers’ index dropping from 46.6 to 46.5, slightly less than initially feared. Chief Economist Cyrus de la Rubia noted that the recession in the European industry persists, but there are cautious signs of potential demand recovery.
In February, the Netherlands exhibited reduced annual inflation, with the price level rising by 2.8 percent compared to a 3.2 percent increase in January. Services and food contributed to the rise, albeit at a slower pace than the previous month.
Fitch maintains the U.S. credit rating at “AA+” with a “stable” outlook. Fitch predicts a slowed GDP growth for 2024 despite economic resilience and emphasizes concerns about increasing interest burdens. However, Moody’s lowered the outlook to “negative” in November due to substantial budget deficits and decreasing debt affordability.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.72% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices continued to rise in February, with West Texas Intermediate increasing by about 3 % on a monthly basis. In the first two months of the year, oil prices rose by over 9 %. Despite a slight decline on Thursday, the price maintains upward potential due to stabilization in U.S. oil production and signs of increasing consumer demand, supported by declining gasoline and heating oil inventories.
In Germany, inflation decreased more than expected in February to 2.5 % on an annual basis, the lowest level since June 2021. Economists expected an inflation rate of 2.6 %. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.4 %, slightly lower than the expected 0.5 %.
Despite earlier reports of stagnation, new data showed that the French economy experienced a slight growth of 0.1 % in the fourth quarter of 2023, contrary to previous reports of zero growth. Over the entire year of 2023, the French GDP increased by 0.9 %, following a growth of 2.5 % in 2022.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
