Consumer confidence in the eurozone improved in March, according to final figures released by the European Commission on Wednesday. The index that reflects confidence increased by 0.6 points to -14.9. The index for economic sentiment in the eurozone rose by 0.8 points to 96.3 in March. The employment expectations index remained roughly stable at 102.6. Confidence in the industry increased fractionally, as did confidence in the services sector.
Dutch producers in the industry were slightly more negative in March. This became apparent on Wednesday from figures released by the Netherlands’ Central Bureau of Statistics. The confidence index went from -4.2 in February to -4.8 in March. Manufacturers were less positive about the expected business activity and more negative about their inventories. Producer confidence in March was below the 20-year average of -1.3. The confidence reached its highest value in October 2021 at 10.4. The lowest value was recorded in April 2020 at -31.5.
In the United States, crude inventories increased last week. This was evident from figures released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. In the week ending March 22, crude oil inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels to 448.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels to 232.1 million barrels. Inventories of heating oil and diesel decreased by 1.2 million barrels to 117.3 million barrels. Refinery utilization rates increased from 87.8 percent to 88.7 percent.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.86% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.58% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Dutch industrial producers were slightly more negative in March, with the confidence index declining from -4.2 to -4.8, attributed to less positive expectations for business activity and more negative views on inventories. This level of confidence is below the 20-year average, contrasting with the record high and low experienced in October 2021 and April 2020, respectively.
In February, US durable goods orders increased more than expected, with a 1.4% rise over the previous month against economists’ predictions of a 1.0% increase. Excluding transportation and defense orders, increases were seen at 0.5% and 2.2% respectively, despite a significant drop in orders in January 2023.
In January 2024, US house prices in the 20 largest cities rose by 6.6% year-on-year, accelerating from a 6.2% increase the month before, with a slight monthly decrease of 0.1%. The 10 largest cities even saw a more significant annual increase of 7.4%, despite no change on a monthly basis.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.86% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.63% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The United States saw a decline in the sale of new single-family homes in February compared to the previous month, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The number of newly sold single-family homes dropped by 0.3 percent to 662,000 units, slightly lower than the previously reported figure of 664,000 units for the preceding month. Economists had anticipated an increase to 675,000 units for February. However, on a year-over-year basis, home sales rose by 5.9 percent. The average selling price stood at $485,000 last month.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the yuan’s reference rate more than expected, aiming to achieve certain objectives. Firstly, the central bank aims to avoid being labeled a currency manipulator, and secondly, a stronger yuan benefits foreign investors by increasing the value of their Chinese assets. This move seeks to reassure foreign investors amid significant outflows of foreign capital in recent months. The Japanese yen rebounded, following the historic interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan last week. Traders anticipate that Japan’s interest rates will remain low for some time, maintaining significant interest rate differentials with the United States and Europe.
Oil prices closed higher on Monday due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine. Oil futures decreased for the third consecutive session on Friday, limiting the gains for both WTI and Brent. The U.S. urged Ukraine last week to halt drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, fearing that it could spike global oil prices and provoke retaliations. Ukraine denied the attacks, which reportedly took approximately 7 percent of Russian refining capacity offline.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 3.87% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In January, German import prices continued to decline sharply, with an annual decrease of 5.9 percent, according to data from the German Federal Statistical Office. However, on a monthly basis, prices remained unchanged, following a previous 7.0 percent year-on-year decline in December.
Federal Reserve official Raphael Bostic expects only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, revising down his earlier prediction of two cuts, citing concerns about persistent inflation and a stronger-than-expected US economy.
The likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank is increasing, according to ECB official Joachim Nagel, with a possible cut before the summer vacation, with June considered more favorable than April. However, he warns against too rapid or automatic subsequent cuts and emphasizes that the ECB should not overly focus on other central banks globally.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of England kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25 percent on Thursday. The central bank remains vigilant about persistent inflationary pressures and economic resilience, anticipating a temporary decline in inflation in the second quarter and a potential gradual increase later in the year.
In February, unemployment in the Netherlands rose to 379,000, the highest number in a year and a half, according to figures reported by Statistics Netherlands. The unemployment rate increased from 3.6 to 3.7 percent, primarily because more people were actively seeking employment, not because more jobs were lost.
Preliminary figures from S&P Global indicate that the American services sector grew slightly less than expected in March, with a purchasing managers’ index of 51.7 compared to the expected 52.0, while the purchasing managers’ index for the industry rose to 52.5 compared to an expected 51.8. However, the composite index decreased from 52.5 to 52.2.The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.91% compared to previous business day.
The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.69% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The American Federal Reserve, as expected, left interest rates unchanged, maintaining the level at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The decision was taken unanimously yesterday evening. In July of last year, the Fed last raised the rate and since then the rate has been at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. Just before the interest rate decision, the euro/dollar was quoted at 1.0864, this morning the euro/dollar is quoted at 1.0936.
The European Central Bank may lower the policy rate in June if the upcoming figures on inflation and wages meet the ECB’s expectations. This was stated by President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday. ‘If these figures sufficiently correspond with the trajectory of underlying inflation and our forecasts, and if we assume that the transmission of monetary policy remains strong, we will be able to move to the phase of downscaling in our policy cycle and make the policy less restrictive,’ said Lagarde.
Consumer prices in the United Kingdom rose slightly less than expected in February. On an annual basis, prices increased by 3.4 percent, while economists had anticipated an increase of 3.5 percent. In the preceding month, the price level had increased by 4.0 percent on annual basis. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.6 percent, after a 0.6 percent decrease in January. An increase of 0.7 percent had been expected.
Stocks of crude oil in the United States decreased last week, as did gasoline inventories, according to figures released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday. In the week ending March 15, crude inventories fell by 2.0 million barrels to 445.0 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 230.8 million barrels. However, inventories of heating oil and diesel increased by 0.6 million barrels to 118.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from 86.8 percent to 87.8 percent.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.71% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
China has tightened regulations on consumer credit companies to restore confidence in the financial sector and end widespread “shadow banking.” The new rules, effective on April 18th, demand higher capital requirements for non-banking loans and stricter investor ownership, significantly raising the thresholds for companies offering personal loans other than for housing or vehicles.
The euro experienced downward pressure on Tuesday as market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged, interpreted as an implicit rate hike, led to an increase in the dollar’s value. This sentiment was further influenced by mentions of potential discussions on rate cuts by European Central Bank officials in an upcoming meeting.
In February, the number of houses starting construction in the U.S. significantly increased, alongside a rise in issued building permits, according to government data. Construction starts surged by 10.7% monthly to 1.521 million homes on an annualized basis, exceeding economists’ expectations of a 7.4% increase, while building permits rose by 1.9% monthly to 1.518 million, also surpassing forecasts.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.72% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of Japan bid farewell to negative interest rates after eight years, according to the latest interest rate decision by the Japanese central bank announced on Tuesday. The monetary decision implies that short-term rates now range between 0 and 0.1 percent instead of -0.1 percent. The decision was approved by a
majority vote, with seven in favor and two board members voting against. It marks Japan’s first interest rate hike since 2007, signaling a shift in monetary policy.
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders continued to rise in March, as indicated by data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The NAHB housing index climbed from 48 in February to 51 this month, reaching its highest level since July 2023 and marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. A reading above 50 indicates positive sales conditions, marking the first time since July last year that the index surpassed this threshold.
The Netherlands raised €2.61 billion through the reopening of two short-term loans, as reported by the Ministry of Finance agency on Monday. The first loan, maturing on May 30, 2024, offers a yield of 3.77 percent, raising €1.25 billion with a total outstanding amount of €5.50 billion. The second loan, maturing on August 29, 2024, raised €1.36 billion with a yield of 3.747 percent, and has an outstanding amount of €2.46 billion.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.72% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices declined slightly on Friday after reaching the highest level of the year. The previous increases were supported by optimistic reports on oil demand in 2024 and geopolitical tensions, including attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and uncertainty surrounding the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq closed lower on Friday, because of higher inflation in the US and remarks from market strategists referring to a possible bubble in US stocks. The Federal Reserve is being monitored for potential changes in monetary policy.
On Friday, the euro fell against the dollar, partly due to disappointing US producer prices that strengthened the dollar. The markets now focus on US inflation data and central bank decisions on Wednesday. Inflation figures from France and the decision of the People’s Bank of China to leave interest rates unchanged also influenced the currency markets.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Dutch economy remains stable despite tightness in the labor and housing markets, which pose a structural challenge according to De Nederlandsche Bank. Chairman Klaas Knot emphasized the need to account for true costs, such as energy consumption and nitrogen emissions, to alleviate scarcity. Concerns also arise over inequality in the housing market and the potential departure of key companies from the Netherlands, according to Klaas Knot.
In the United States, the number of new unemployment benefit claims has slightly decreased, with a four-week moving average also declining. However, the number of extended benefit claims has risen, indicating a mixed outlook for the US labor market.
Oil prices have reached their highest level of 2024 due to an anticipated increase in demand and uncertainty surrounding supply. The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global oil demand this year, while potential disruptions in supply further bolster prices. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict a potential rise in Brent crude prices to $90 per barrel by the end of 2024.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.89% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
