Oil prices rose further on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate settling at $76.84, up 0.8%, and Brent crude reaching over $82 after a rise of over 0.5%, amidst continued concerns over the situation in the Middle East, leading to a weekly increase of more than 6%. The geopolitical tensions, highlighted by the rejection of a ceasefire by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the killing of a senior Hezbollah member in Baghdad by a U.S. drone strike, contribute to fears of a US-Iran conflict, yet commodity analysts see prices staying within a range due to alternating focus on demand worries and potential supply disruptions, despite OPEC’s efforts supporting oil prices.
German inflation declined to 2.9 percent year-on-year in January from 3.7 percent the previous month, confirming the preliminary figures released earlier, according to final data from the German Federal Statistical Office, Destatis. Despite the annual decrease, consumer prices saw a marginal monthly increase of 0.2 percent in January.
The Dutch industrial production continued to decline in December, though at a significantly slower rate with a 3.3 percent decrease year-on-year, compared to the sharper declines of 9.4 percent in November and 12.0 percent in October, as reported by Statistics Netherlands. Despite the ongoing twelve-month downward trend, there was a month-to-month increase of 6.8 percent in the final month of 2023.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.89% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Good morning,
Wholesale inventories in the United States rose in December as expected, with a 0.4% increase on a monthly basis and a 2.7% decrease annually. Wholesale sales also saw an uptick, rising by 0.7% on a monthly basis and 1.6% annually.
The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 218,000, below the expectation of 220,000. However, the four-week moving average increased by 3,750 to 212,250, while the number of extended benefit claims dropped to 1,871,000.
Oil prices surged, with West Texas Intermediate reaching $76.22 per barrel and Brent nearly hitting $82 per barrel, driven by ongoing concerns over the Middle East, particularly after recent developments in Gaza. Prices also rose on Wednesday caused by a decline in gasoline stocks.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.74% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. trade deficit in December rose slightly more than expected to $62.2 billion from a revised figure of $61.9 billion the previous month, surpassing analysts’ projections of $62.1 billion. Exports increased by 1.5% to $258.2 billion, while imports climbed by 1.3% to $320.4 billion.
Officials from the Federal Reserve are considering lowering interest rates in light of slowing inflation. However, the decision may not be made immediately and progress towards reducing price hikes will need to be sustained before any action is taken. The Fed also emphasizes their independence from political influence and is committed to maintaining integrity in their decision making process.
Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.5 million barrels to 427.4 million barrels, while gasoline, heating oil, and diesel stocks decreased. Gasoline inventories dropped by 3.1 million barrels to 251.0 million barrels, and distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel, fell by 3.2 million barrels to 127.6 million barrels as refinery utilization slightly decreased from 82.9% to 82.4%.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The euro was slightly weaker against the dollar on Tuesday, with the dollar sustained by strong macro-economic data. Analysts cited strong U.S. services sector purchasing manager indexes as a reason for a stronger dollar and noted that February is typically a strong month for the dollar. Meanwhile, other strategists question how long the dollar strength can last, suggesting the rally may be nearing an end.
German factory orders saw an unexpected significant rise in December, growing by 8.9 percent month-on-month – contrary to analysts’ expectations of a 0.5 percent decline – and increased by 2.7 percent year-on-year.
Retail sales in the eurozone decreased in December, with a month-on-month decline of 1.1 percent after a 0.3 percent increase in November, and a year-on-year drop of 0.8 percent.
The 6M Euribor increased with 7 basis points to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
According to data from Eurostat, the European statistical office, producer prices in the Eurozone experienced a significantly sharper decline in December. On a monthly basis, a decrease of 0.8% was reported, compared to the 0.3% drop in November. On an annual basis, producer prices in December fell by 10.6%, indicating an acceleration from the 8.8% decline the previous month and the 9.4% decrease in October.
On Monday, data from the German statistical office, Destatis, revealed a decline in German exports and imports in December. The export figures showed a month-on-month decrease of 4.6%, while imports experienced an even sharper decline of 6.7%. On an annual basis, exports also saw a 4.6% decrease, while imports exhibited a more substantial drop of 12.4%, attributed in part to lower commodity prices.
On Monday, the Netherlands raised €2.58 billion through two treasury bond issuances, one of which involved a reopening, as reported by the agency of the Ministry of Finance. The short-term bonds have maturity dates of May 30, 2024, and July 30, 2024, with yields of 3.765% and 3.71%, respectively.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Global credit spreads are surging, experiencing the largest weekly increase in four months due to concerns over the real estate markets. Banks are raising bad-loan provisions, causing corporate bond spreads to widen, particularly in the US and Asia, as higher interest rates exert downward pressure on commercial property values. Analysts recommend adding hedges to credit portfolios in response to the growing negativity and risks in the market.
In January, prices of basic food items such as grains and meat decreased, with more than 10% compared to the previous year. Abundant grain harvests and ample corn stocks led to competition and price drops. Conversely, the sugar price rose due to drought in key producing countries. Changes in world food prices do not directly influence prices in Dutch supermarkets due to longstanding price agreements between sellers and producers. However, prolonged low prices could eventually impact grocery costs.
Chinese investors and households turned to gold amid local property and stock market turbulence, causing record-high prices. China led global gold jewelry and investment flows in 2023 amid disappointing markets post-Covid lockdowns. Strong central bank demand and a 28% rise in Chinese investment offset Europe’s decline. Analysts highlight Chinese demand as a key, underappreciated factor in gold price trends.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.83% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 2.63% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
On Thursday, as expected by the market, the Bank of England maintained the Bank Rate at 5.25%. The decision was once again not unanimous, with two bankers voting for an interest rate increase and one voting for a rate reduction. The remaining six members voted to keep the interest rate at its current level.
In January, consumer prices in the Netherlands experienced a significant year-on-year increase, as indicated by a preliminary estimate from Statistics Netherlands on Thursday. The price level rose by 3.2% compared to the same month last year, following a 1.2% increase the previous month. The inflation surge was primarily driven by the price developments in food and services.
In the week ending January 27, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States increased, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. The number of new unemployment benefit claims rose by 9,000 to 224,000, surpassing economists’ expectations, which were at 214,000.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.55% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday evening to keep interest rates unchanged, as expected. The rate remains at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. This unanimous decision follows the latest rate hike in July 2023. The euro/dollar trades at 1.0800 this morning.
The latest employment data from ADP showed that job growth in the private sector of the United States increased in January but less than analysts had predicted. There was an increase of 107,000 jobs, following a revised growth of 158,000 in December, which was initially estimated at 164,000 jobs. Analysts had expected a growth of about 150,000 jobs for January. Wages in January increased by 5.2 percent on an annual basis, which is slightly less than the increase of 5.4 percent seen in the preceding month.
Mixed signals came from China regarding economic activity. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector showed a marginal improvement from 49.0 to 49.2, which still indicates a contraction. However, a slight increase in growth in the services sector was reported, with an increase in the Purchasing Managers’ Index from 50.4 to 50.7.
A surprising increase in crude oil inventories in the United States occurred according to the latest report on energy stocks. In the week ending on January 26, the inventory increased by 1.2 million barrels to 421.9 million barrels. This occurred while market analysts had expected a decrease of about 0.8 million barrels.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 9 basis points to 2.56% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. consumer confidence increased significantly in January, reaching its highest level in two years as reported by The Conference Board. The index climbed from 108.0 in December to 114.8, marking the third consecutive month of increases.
The euro experienced a slight decline against the dollar Tuesday morning following a series of GDP figures from the Eurozone, which indicated zero growth in the fourth quarter after a contraction of 0.1 percent in the previous quarter. Currency strategists expect the dollar to maintain its gains against European currencies in the coming days.
Spain’s economic growth picked up in the fourth quarter, showing a stronger expansion compared to the previous quarter, according to the Spanish Statistical Office. Quarterly growth was 0.6 percent, up from 0.4 percent in the third quarter, while the annual growth rate for the country’s GDP in the fourth quarter was 2.0 percent, slightly higher than the 1.9 percent in the third quarter.
In January, consumer confidence in the Eurozone fell slightly, with the index dropping by 1.0 point to -16.1, remaining well below the long-term average as reported by the European Commission. While the overall economic sentiment in the Eurozone decreased minimally from 96.3 to 96.2, against expectations of an increase to 96.5, confidence in the services sector did see an improvement.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.87% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.65% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
According to the latest figures from the Dutch Central Bank, it appears that household bank balances have significantly increased in the past year. In 2023, balances have risen by nearly €15 billion.
A court in Hong Kong ordered the liquidation of real estate giant China Evergrande Group on Monday. The Chinese real estate developer, with over $300 billion in debt, failed to submit a suitable restructuring plan after months of delays.
The number of individuals unfit for work in the Netherlands is on the rise compared to the previous year. The Dutch Employee Insurance Agency anticipates handling 852,800 disability benefits this year, as opposed to 840,100 in the preceding year.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 4 basis points to 3.87% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
