US core inflation remained stable at 2.8 percent on an annual basis in March, which was higher than the expected decline to 2.7 percent. The overall price index rose to 2.7 percent, while economists had predicted an increase to 2.6 percent. In March, incomes increased by 0.5 percent and US spending by 0.8 percent, both higher than expected.
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate and Brent rising to 83.85 dollars and over 88 dollars per barrel, respectively. On a weekly basis, oil prices increased between 1.0 and 2.0 percent. Analysts warn of possible stagnation due to the combination of high inflation and economic slowdown in the US, which could weaken energy demand outlook.
The euro remained remarkably stable on Friday, despite growing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s policy after new inflation data. The chances of Fed lowering rates declines with higher inflation. The euro edged 0.1 percent higher to 1.0742 dollars on Friday. The European currency remained flat at 0.8576 British pounds. The British pound rose 0.1 percent to 1.2523 dollars. The dollar declined from 156.80 to 155.60 yen.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.83% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Both the US stock markets and global markets experienced sharp declines on Thursday, accompanied by rising bond yields. This followed after publication of growth figures for the US economy. In the first quarter growth came in lower than expected, registering only 1.6 percent. By contrast, in the fourth quarter, growth stood at 3.4 percent. Furthermore, consumer prices surged by 3.4 percent in the first quarter, marking a substantial increase from the 1.8 percent rise seen in the previous quarter. Core prices also saw an uptick, rising by 3.7 percent compared to the 2.0 percent observed in the final quarter of 2023.
Consumer confidence in Germany improved for May, according to data from research firm GfK. The confidence index rose from -27.3 in March to -24.2 for May. This exceeded economists’ expectations, who had predicted the index to reach -26.0.
The Turkish central bank announced Thursday afternoon that it will keep the interest rate unchanged. This follows an earlier interest rate hike in March when the rate was raised from 45.00 to 50.00 percent. In March, the central bank observed higher underlying inflation than expected, with a price increase of 68.5 percent on an annual basis and 3.2 percent on a monthly basis. In the medium term, the central bank of the country aims for an inflation rate of 5.00 percent.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.83% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.92% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Crude oil inventories in the United States saw a significant drop last week, according to figures released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. For the week ending on April 19, crude oil inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels to 226.7 million barrels. However, distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel, did rise by 1.6 million barrels to 116.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization rates climbed from 88.1 to 88.5 percent.
New orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose in March as expected, according to figures from the U.S. government released on Wednesday. Orders were 2.6 percent higher last month compared to a month earlier, which matched economists’ forecasts for a 2.6 percent increase. Excluding transportation, which includes automobiles, orders were 0.2 percent higher. Orders excluding defense contracts rose by 2.3 percent. Orders in February increased by 0.7 percent on a monthly basis, revised from an initially reported uptick of 1.4 percent.
The Ifo index for the business climate in Germany rose slightly more than expected in April, figures from the German research institute Ifo showed on Wednesday. The composite index for the German business climate in industry and trade increased from 87.9 to 89.4 this month, with analysts having predicted a rise to 88.8. The sub-index for current conditions registered at 88.9, while the sub-index for expectations stood at 89.9.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 2.89% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. business activity cooled to a four-month low in April amid weaker demand across manufacturing and services sector. The lower activity contributes to a slight easing in inflation.
Business activity in the Eurozone expanded rapidly in April, led by a strong recovery in the service sector which offset declines in manufacturing. According to a PMI survey the growth was particularly noticeable in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the zone. Despite the mixed results in manufacturing, overall economic optimism remained high and employment growth reached its highest rate since June of the previous year.
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is expects to approve a rule banning noncompete agreements, which are often required for workers across various sectors, on the grounds that these agreements restrict employee mobility and suppress wages. This move, seen as a measure to enhance worker flexibility and potentially boost wages by nearly $300 billion annually, has faced strong opposition from major business groups that argue ‘noncompetes’ protect trade secrets and promote competitiveness.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.85% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.81% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer confidence in the eurozone continued to improve in April, although remaining negative, according to preliminary figures from the European Commission. The index rose from -14.9 in March to -14.7 mid-April. While this increase is a positive sign, consumer confidence still remains fragile due to persistent economic uncertainties.
The Netherlands cannot afford fiscal and financial stimulation of the housing market given the acute housing shortage, says Paul Hilbers of the IMF. He emphasizes that The Netherlands needs to build more houses but also gradually phase out mortgage interest tax relief and further restrict borrowing norms for homebuyers. These measures could help alleviate pressure on the housing market and ensure long-term economic stability.
The dollar edged slightly lower on Monday amid reduced concerns about the situation in the Middle East. The euro/dollar stood at 1.0639 on Monday end of day, versus around 1.0620 on Friday due to concerns about escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran. U.S. macroeconomic data later in the week will be the focus of the markets, especially the preliminary figure for economic growth in the US in the first quarter and the inflation figure in the PCE report on US household incomes and expenditures on Friday.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.85% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.79% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In March, retail sales in the United Kingdom remained unchanged, contrary to economists’ expectations of a 0.3% increase. Sales volumes had increased by 0.1% in February, with previously reported zero growth being revised.
German producer prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in March, marking a less pronounced decline compared to February. Energy prices declined by 7.0% year on year, while producer prices increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis.
Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East oil prices declined by approximately 3% last week. Although the likelihood of escalation is currently deemed low, markets remain concerned about the potential disruption to oil supply due to geopolitical tensions.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.81% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Brussels recently expressed concern about potential negative consequences of telecom mergers for competition and consumer interests. The European Commission emphasizes the importance of maintaining healthy competition in the telecom sector as a driver of innovation and ensuring alternatives for consumers. These developments come at a crucial time as telecom companies in Europe are considering mergers and acquisitions as a strategy to strengthen their market position and gain a competitive advantage.
Data reported by Statistics Netherlands revealed that unemployment in the Netherlands decreased in March. The number of unemployed individuals stood at 371,000 last month, compared to 379,000 the previous month. As a result, the unemployment rate decreased from 3.7 percent in February to 3.6 percent in March, matching the percentage from January.
In the United States, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits remained stable in the week ending April 13, according to data from the US Department of Labor. The number of new claims was steady at 212,000, in line with analysts’ expectations, who had predicted a level of 215,000. The four-week moving average also remained stable at 214,500, indicating ongoing stability in the labor market. However, the number of continued claims for benefits increased to 1,812,000 in the week ending April 6, up by 2,000 compared to the previous week, which could fuel concerns about economic resilience.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.81% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In March consumer prices in the eurozone rose by 2.4 percent on an annual basis, according to the final figures from Eurostat released on Wednesday. Inflation was 2.6 percent in February. Core inflation, an important measure for the ECB, stood at 2.9 percent year-on-year in March, down from 3.1 percent in February. Core inflation excludes volatile prices for energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco. On a monthly basis, consumer prices in the eurozone increased by 0.8 percent and core prices by 1.1 percent in March.
Consumer prices in the United Kingdom rose slightly more than expected in March, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). On an annual basis, prices increased by 3.2 percent, while economists had anticipated a rise of 3.1 percent. In the previous month, the price level had risen by 3.4 percent. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.6 percent, after a rise of 0.8 percent a month earlier. A rise of 0.5 percent had been expected.
Crude oil inventories in the United States rose more than expected last week, according to figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). For the week ending on April 12, crude oil inventories increased by 2.7 million barrels to 460.0 million barrels. An increase of 600,000 barrels had been projected. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels to 227.4 million barrels, compared to an anticipated decrease of 1 million barrels. Stocks of heating oil and diesel, dropped by 2.8 million barrels to 115.0 million barrels, whereas economists had forecast a drop of 0.4 million barrels. The capacity utilization of refineries decreased from 88.3 percent to 88.1 percent, although a slight increase to 88.9 percent had been expected.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.77% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The UK labour market is showing signs of cooling with core wage increases slowing down and unemployment rates rising, but concerns persist due to sustained high wage growth and increasing workforce inactivity, raising doubts about near-term interest rate cuts by the Bank of England.
Global recession risks have largely been mitigated, but the global economy is expected to experience only modest growth, according to German government sources citing upcoming International Monetary Fund forecasts; structural reforms are deemed necessary due to unsatisfactorily low growth projections for the medium term.
Canada’s annual inflation rate slightly increased to 2.9% in March, fueled by rising fuel costs, while core inflation measures showed signs of easing for the third consecutive month, suggesting the possibility of a mid-year interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada if these trends continue.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 5 basis points to 3.82% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.81% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Chinese economy exceeded expectations in the first quarter, growing by 5.3 percent annually, higher than the predicted 5.0 percent. On a quarterly basis, China showed growth of 1.6 percent. Beijing’s target for economic growth this year is around 5 percent, indicating that China is steadily progressing towards achieving its economic goals.
Confidence among American homebuilders remained stable in April, with the NAHB Housing Market Index staying unchanged at 51. While this indicates positive sales conditions, concerns persist over factors such as mortgage rates and inflation. This could be a determining factor for the future dynamics of the housing market in the United States.
The Federal Reserve’s index for the industry in the New York region showed improvement in March, although less than expected. The index rose from -20.9 to -14.3, but remained negative, signalling ongoing pessimistic outlooks. Such regional economic indicators are often used as predictive measures for broader national economic trends.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.87% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 2.75% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.