The final measurement of economic growth in the fourth quarter of the Eurozone revealed a modest annual growth of 0.1 percent. The economy’s growth over 2023 did undergo a change from 0.5 percent to 0.4 percent, while for the third quarter there was a change from unchanged to 0.1 percent annual growth.
German producer prices declined less on a yearly basis in January, with a decrease of 4.4 percent, and the German industry produced 5.5 percent less in January compared to the previous year, which was even lower than expected.
The official U.S. jobs report indicated a significantly stronger job growth than expected in February, with an increase of 275,000 jobs. This was a positive surprise compared to the anticipated rise of 198,000 jobs.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.56% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Asian equity markets showed a strong increase on Friday, buoyed by record levels on Wall Street and an optimistic sentiment surrounding the AI sector.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged to new record highs, driven by increasing hopes of decreasing inflation and significant gains in the technology sector. The European Central Bank’s downward revisions in annual inflation and growth forecasts, coupled with a stable key interest rate, contributed to investor optimism.
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged despite declining inflation expectations. ECB President Lagarde’s explanation provided insight into the monetary policy direction, while economic projections were revised with slightly lower growth. The eurozone faced moderate economic prospects and an expected inflation slowdown, impacting markets.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.60% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In January 2024, figures published by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) indicated a modest increase in consumer spending in the Netherlands, by 0.3% compared to the previous year, signaling sustained economic stability. Eurostat revealed a slight rise in retail sales in the Eurozone, with an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis. However, a year-on-year comparison shows a decrease of 1% in retail trade, suggesting challenges within the sector.
In the United States, the private sector created 140,000 new jobs in February, according to ADP, which is just below the forecast of 150,000. Although the increase fell short of expectations, the annual wage increase of 5.1% indicates a resilient labor market. Employees who changed jobs experienced an average wage increase of 7.6%.
U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels to a total of 448.5 million barrels. Refined product stocks declined, with a decrease in gasoline inventories of 4.5 million barrels to 239.7 million barrels and a decline in inventories of heating oil and diesel by 4.1 million barrels to 117 million barrels. These shifts coincided with a rise in refinery utilization rates from 81.5% to 84.9%.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Eurozone producer prices fell more than expected in January, primarily due to lower energy prices, with a monthly decrease of 0.9 percent and an annual drop of 8.6 percent. Excluding energy, producer prices saw a modest monthly increase of 0.2 percent but still decreased 1.5 percent year-on-year.
The Spanish economy continues to grow robustly, with the services sector expanding significantly in February, reaching a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 54.7, the highest since May 2023, up from 52.1 the previous month. Similarly, the industrial PMI also increased, indicating growth from 49.2 to 51.5, with the composite index climbing to 53.9 in February, an index above 50 suggests expansion.
The French services sector contracted less in February, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increasing to 48.4 from 45.4 the previous month, according to final figures from S&P Global. The composite index, which also includes the French manufacturing sector, rose from 44.6 to 48.1, indicating a movement towards stabilization despite both sectors remaining below the 50 threshold.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Netherlands raised 2.39 billion euros with two short-term loans, the Ministry of Finance reported on Monday. The first loan, maturing on June 27, 2024, offers a yield of 3.75 percent, raising 1.29 billion euros. The outstanding amount is 3.77 billion euros. The second loan, maturing on August 29, 2024, raised 1.11 billion euros, also offering a yield of 3.75 percent. The initial target for both auctions was set at 1.0 to 1.5 billion euros. Subscriptions totalled 1.95 billion euros for the reopening and 1.40 billion euros for the new loan.
Bitcoin surged to a two-year high on Monday, surpassing $65,000 as a wave of investment brought it within reach of record levels. It reached a peak of $65,537 early in Europe, having already hit a new two-year high in Asian trading. Currently up 4% at $65,045, Bitcoin hit a record $68,999.99 in November 2021. The cryptocurrency, with the largest market value, has risen by 50% this year, with a significant portion of the increase occurring in recent weeks as inflows into U.S.-listed bitcoin funds surged.
At the start of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Qiang announced an increase in defence spending by over 7%. Additionally, Beijing will issue $139 billion in long-term government bonds to support the economy. Notably, Li’s language regarding the intended reunification with Taiwan differed during the assembly. The main points shared by Chinese Premier Li Qiang during the opening of the National People’s Congress included an economic growth target of around 5%, increased defence spending, reduced energy consumption, and billions allocated to bolster the economy. The assembly, known as “The Two Sessions,” gathered around three thousand delegates in Beijing to discuss new plans, laws, and budgets for the upcoming week.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In February, the industry in the Eurozone shrank according to final figures from S&P Global, with a purchasing managers’ index dropping from 46.6 to 46.5, slightly less than initially feared. Chief Economist Cyrus de la Rubia noted that the recession in the European industry persists, but there are cautious signs of potential demand recovery.
In February, the Netherlands exhibited reduced annual inflation, with the price level rising by 2.8 percent compared to a 3.2 percent increase in January. Services and food contributed to the rise, albeit at a slower pace than the previous month.
Fitch maintains the U.S. credit rating at “AA+” with a “stable” outlook. Fitch predicts a slowed GDP growth for 2024 despite economic resilience and emphasizes concerns about increasing interest burdens. However, Moody’s lowered the outlook to “negative” in November due to substantial budget deficits and decreasing debt affordability.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.72% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices continued to rise in February, with West Texas Intermediate increasing by about 3 % on a monthly basis. In the first two months of the year, oil prices rose by over 9 %. Despite a slight decline on Thursday, the price maintains upward potential due to stabilization in U.S. oil production and signs of increasing consumer demand, supported by declining gasoline and heating oil inventories.
In Germany, inflation decreased more than expected in February to 2.5 % on an annual basis, the lowest level since June 2021. Economists expected an inflation rate of 2.6 %. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.4 %, slightly lower than the expected 0.5 %.
Despite earlier reports of stagnation, new data showed that the French economy experienced a slight growth of 0.1 % in the fourth quarter of 2023, contrary to previous reports of zero growth. Over the entire year of 2023, the French GDP increased by 0.9 %, following a growth of 2.5 % in 2022.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer confidence in the Eurozone improved slightly in February, as shown by the final figures from the European Commission on Wednesday. The index increased by 0.6 points to -15.5, remaining well below the long-term average. Consumers became more positive about their financial situation and seemed more willing to make major purchases. However, consumers became slightly more negative about the general economic situation in their country.
Additionally, Dutch industrial producers were also slightly less negative, according to figures reported by Statistics Netherlands. The confidence index rose from -4.4 in January to -4.2 in February. Manufacturers were more positive about the expected business activity. However, they were more negative about their order books.
The growth of the U.S. economy slowed down even further in the fourth quarter of 2023 than initially measured, according to a second estimate released on Wednesday. The economy grew by 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to 4.9 percent in the third quarter. An initial calculation put the growth at 3.3 percent for the last three months of 2023.
The United States’ crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline, heating oil, and diesel stocks declined. In the week ending February 23, crude oil inventories rose by 4.2 million barrels to 447.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks decreased by 2.8 million barrels to a total of 244.2 million barrels. Stocks of heating oil and diesel fell by 0.5 million barrels to 121.1 million barrels.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.79% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In December, U.S. housing prices increased at a faster pace compared to November, with the Case-Shiller index revealing a 6.1% year-on-year rise in the 20 largest metropolitan areas and a 7.0% jump in the 10 largest cities, despite a month-over-month decrease of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
The euro is trading in a narrow range around 1.0860 dollars, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation data for January that will influence the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. A rise in core inflation is expected on a monthly basis with a slight decline year-on-year, with significant attention focused on Thursday’s PCE inflation and upcoming monetary policy statements.
German consumer confidence has slightly improved for March, with the GfK research institute’s index rising to -29.0 from February’s -29.6, matching economists’ expectations. French consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in February, with the INSEE confidence index dropping to 89 from January’s 91, contrary to economists’ expectations of an increase to 92.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.80% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Yesterday, the European Union Council adopted rules to enable Instant Payments in the euro currency 24/7, aiming to enhance competition for European payment firms against their U.S. counterparts. This regulation allows customers to transfer euros within 10 seconds at any time, even outside traditional business hours, not only domestically but also across EU borders.
According to Christian Schulz, Vice Chief Economist Europe at the U.S. bank Citi, the German economic model needs to adapt. Germany’s overreliance on exports is outdated, considering the evolving global landscape. Citi emphasizes the need for domestic sources to drive economic growth.
The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, stated that Britain is displaying signs of recovery from its mild recession and anticipates a boost when interest rates decrease later this year. Bailey dismissed claims that the central bank’s hesitancy to reduce borrowing costs despite declining inflation indicated a lag in response and clarified that rate cuts were on the horizon.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 2.78% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
