A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that American consumers expect inflation to increase in the coming years, along with accelerating home price increases. Respondents expect inflation to be at 3.3% in a year and anticipate a 3.3% increase in home prices over a year, the highest level since July 2022.

French President Emmanuel Macron does not rule out the possibility of a major French bank being sold to a European competitor, in an effort to promote consolidation in the European banking sector. Macron emphasized the need for a European capital markets union to stimulate growth in the European Union during a TV interview on Monday.

In April 2024, the number of bankruptcies in the Netherlands increased slightly, with 353 companies declared bankrupt after correction for court session days, compared to 333 in March. This is according to data from Statistics Netherlands, with the trade sector recording the highest number of bankruptcies.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.79% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.78% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The British economy grew by 0.6 percent in the first quarter, following a 0.3 and 0.1 percent contraction of the GDP in the fourth- and third quarter respectively, according to the UK’s Office for National Statistics. On an annual basis, the British economy expanded by 0.2 percent in the first three months of 2024.

In May, consumer confidence in the US economy declined significantly, with the University of Michigan index dropping from 77.2 to 67.4 compared to April. Both the current economic climate and future expectations worsened, with sub-indices decreasing from 79.0 to 68.8 and from 76.0 to 66.5, respectively. The inflation expectation for the next 12 months rose to 3.5 percent from 3.2 percent at the end of April, while the forecast for the next 5 years increased from 3.0 to 3.1 percent.

Oil prices declined on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate settling at 78.26 dollar per barrel, down 1.3 percent, and Brent crude falling over one percent to 82.85 dollar. Optimism regarding Chinese demand and escalating tensions in the Middle East provided support, but a drop in US consumer confidence dampened sentiment. Meanwhile, investors continue to weigh demand dynamics against supply risks stemming from geopolitical tensions.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.80% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The Bank of England maintained the key interest rate today at 5.25 percent. The decision followed recent economic figures indicating an expected growth of 0.4 percent in the first quarter of the British economy, with a forecast of further slowdown to 0.2 percent in the second quarter. Shortly after the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, the British pound fell by 0.3 percent to 1.2456 US dollars.

According to data from the Chinese government released on Thursday, Chinese exports surged more in April than expected. On an annual basis, exports in US dollars rose by 1.5 percent, exceeding the predicted increase of 1.0 percent, following a 7.5 percent decline the previous month. Imports increased by 8.4 percent, after a previous decrease of 1.9 percent in March, surpassing economists’ forecasted rise of 4.5 percent. As a result, China’s trade surplus in April amounted to 72.35 billion US dollars, below the anticipated 77.1 billion US dollars.

In the week ending on May 4th, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States rose sharply to 231,000, an increase of 22,000 compared to the previous period. 214,000 applications were expected. The four-week moving average also increased to 215,000, a rise of 4,750. Additionally, the number of extended assistance claims rose to 1,785,000 in the week ending April 27th, an increase of 17,000.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.78% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Retail sales in the Eurozone increased in March, rising by 0.8% month-over-month after a decline of 0.5% in February, outperforming initial expectations of a 0.6% increase.

India’s fuel demand rose by 6.1% year-on-year in April, reflecting increased economic activities and consumption patterns. The growth was led predominantly by petrol and diesel, with total fuel consumption reaching 19.86 million metric tons. Despite the monthly decline, the continued growth underscores India’s significant role as the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer.

The OECD forecasts the growth rate for the UK to be the lowest among all advanced nations next year with a projected GDP increase of just 0.4%, highlighting challenges from high interest rates and ongoing inflation. While the global economy is expected to stabilize with a growth rate of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, the UK’s performance will lag behind other major economies, reflecting broader monetary policy impacts on recovery and consumption.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.79% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.71% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The Netherlands raised 3.04 billion euros on Monday afternoon through the issuance of short-term bonds, as announced by the Ministry of Finance. The reopening of a loan maturing on August 29 offered a yield of 3.678 percent. Despite bids totalling 3.16 billion euros, just 1.49 billion euros were awarded, leaving the outstanding amount under the loan at 3.95 billion euros.

The services sector in the eurozone showed faster growth in April, according to data from S&P Global. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the services sector rose to 53.3 from 51.5 the previous month, reaching its highest level in eleven months. While the services sector continued to rebound, the PMI for the eurozone’s manufacturing sector declined last week from 46.1 to 45.7.

The euro maintained a stable position against the dollar on Monday morning, hovering around 1.0770, after the European currency briefly surged on Friday following the release of the US jobs report, which showed disappointing employment growth. After the jobs report, the euro increased to 1.08 USD on Friday before retracting to around 1.0765 USD.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.76% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The British services sector showed slightly more growth in April than previously measured, according to final figures from S&P Global. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) measuring the country’s services sector activity stood at 55.0 compared to 53.1 the previous month, with a preliminary reading reporting an index of 54.9. However, the purchasing managers’ index for the British industry declined from 50.3 to 49.1, resulting in the composite index rising from 52.8 to 54.1, with an index reading above 50 indicating growth.

In April, job growth in the United States fell significantly below expectations, with only 175,000 jobs added, compared to the anticipated 240,000. Unemployment reached 3.9 percent, 10 basis points higher than expected. Hourly earnings rose by 0.2 percent to 34.75 dollar, with a yearly wage growth of 3.9 percent, slightly lower than economists’ forecast of 4.0 percent.

Oil prices closed lower, marking the largest weekly percentage loss since early February. The June futures for a barrel of WTI crude oil settled at 78.11 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 1.06 percent on Friday. This amounted to a weekly loss of 6.85 percent, although the price remains 9.02 percent higher year-on-year. The decline was attributed to reduced concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East, robust U.S. production, and increasing American inventories, coinciding with a decrease in demand and worsening economic growth. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East are expected to remain a key focus next week, with traders noting that reduced tensions in the region have led to a lower risk premium, limiting upward pressure on oil prices, although risks remain high.

The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 3.83% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.78% compared to previous business day.

Brussels offers Lebanon €1 billion in support until 2028 to address the economic crisis, on the condition that Beirut stops the influx of Syrian refugees to the European Union. The funds will be allocated to housing, healthcare, education, and improved border control, with over €250 million directed towards economic development. This assistance is in addition to the €2.6 billion that the EU has already invested in the Lebanese refugee crisis since 2011.

In March, both the export and import of the United States decreased, therefore the trade deficit will not change according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Exports decreased by 2.0 percent to $257.6 billion, while imports decreased by 1.6 percent to $327.0 billion. This kept the U.S. trade deficit stable at $69.4 billion, almost matching the predicted $69.5 billion. The deficits with China and the European Union were $24.1 billion and $19.5 billion, respectively.

According to final figures from S&P Global released on Thursday, the eurozone’s industry showed slightly less contraction in April than previously measured. The purchasing managers’ index for the currency union’s industry decreased from 46.1 to 45.7, with the preliminary index at 45.6.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.82% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Activity in the American manufacturing sector turned contracted in April, according to data released on Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) decreased from 50.3 in March to 49.2 in April. The market had anticipated an index of 50.1. The PMI as compiled by S&P Global indicated a stagnation in industrial sector activity. The index dropped from 51.9 to 50.0. An index value above 50 indicates growth, while a value below 50 signifies contraction.

The British manufacturing sector showed less contraction in April than was previously reported, according to final data released on Wednesday by S&P Global. The PMI for British manufacturing turned out to have decreased from 50.3 to 49.1, compared to a preliminary figure recorded at 48.7.

Employment in the private sector in the United States grew slightly faster than expected in April, as reported by payroll processor ADP on Wednesday. The number of jobs increased by 192,000, following a revised increase of 208,000 a month earlier. Initially, a rise of 184,000 jobs had been reported for March. Economists had forecasted a growth of 183,000 jobs. Salaries rose by 5.0 percent on an annual basis, according to the report. Employees who changed jobs saw a 9.3 percent increase.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.82% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The Euro zone economy rebounded in the first quarter, with Germany returning to growth and expansion accelerating in other euro zone countries, while inflation steadied, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Gross domestic product in the 20-country bloc increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in January-March, beating market expectations and reflecting a slow recovery in line with IMF projections.

Growth in China’s manufacturing and services sectors slowed in April, indicating a loss of momentum at the start of the second quarter for the world’s second-biggest economy. However, first quarter GDP data were solid. The slowdown highlights erratic demand and underscores challenges for policymakers.

The Bank of Japan expressed optimism regarding consumption and service price trends which progress towards its 2% inflation target. Labour shortages are driving up wages, prompting more firms to raise service prices which cause increasing long-term inflation expectations.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.82% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its strict monetary policy on Wednesday and warn the market about the risk of further delays in interest rate cuts. This is due to persistent high inflation and strong economic growth, which could lead to a hawkish approach from Chairman Jerome Powell.

Consumer confidence in the eurozone improved in April, rising from -14.9 to -14.7, but remained negative. At the same time, the index for economic sentiment in the eurozone fell by 0.6 points to 95.6.

German inflation edged up slightly in April, with consumer prices increasing by 0.5 percent on a monthly basis, slightly below the expectation of 0.6 percent. On an annual basis, inflation remained stable at 2.2 percent, while core inflation fell from 3.3 to 3.0 percent.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.81% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.