In January, German import prices continued to decline sharply, with an annual decrease of 5.9 percent, according to data from the German Federal Statistical Office. However, on a monthly basis, prices remained unchanged, following a previous 7.0 percent year-on-year decline in December.
Federal Reserve official Raphael Bostic expects only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, revising down his earlier prediction of two cuts, citing concerns about persistent inflation and a stronger-than-expected US economy.
The likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank is increasing, according to ECB official Joachim Nagel, with a possible cut before the summer vacation, with June considered more favorable than April. However, he warns against too rapid or automatic subsequent cuts and emphasizes that the ECB should not overly focus on other central banks globally.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of England kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25 percent on Thursday. The central bank remains vigilant about persistent inflationary pressures and economic resilience, anticipating a temporary decline in inflation in the second quarter and a potential gradual increase later in the year.
In February, unemployment in the Netherlands rose to 379,000, the highest number in a year and a half, according to figures reported by Statistics Netherlands. The unemployment rate increased from 3.6 to 3.7 percent, primarily because more people were actively seeking employment, not because more jobs were lost.
Preliminary figures from S&P Global indicate that the American services sector grew slightly less than expected in March, with a purchasing managers’ index of 51.7 compared to the expected 52.0, while the purchasing managers’ index for the industry rose to 52.5 compared to an expected 51.8. However, the composite index decreased from 52.5 to 52.2.The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.91% compared to previous business day.
The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.69% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The American Federal Reserve, as expected, left interest rates unchanged, maintaining the level at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The decision was taken unanimously yesterday evening. In July of last year, the Fed last raised the rate and since then the rate has been at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. Just before the interest rate decision, the euro/dollar was quoted at 1.0864, this morning the euro/dollar is quoted at 1.0936.
The European Central Bank may lower the policy rate in June if the upcoming figures on inflation and wages meet the ECB’s expectations. This was stated by President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday. ‘If these figures sufficiently correspond with the trajectory of underlying inflation and our forecasts, and if we assume that the transmission of monetary policy remains strong, we will be able to move to the phase of downscaling in our policy cycle and make the policy less restrictive,’ said Lagarde.
Consumer prices in the United Kingdom rose slightly less than expected in February. On an annual basis, prices increased by 3.4 percent, while economists had anticipated an increase of 3.5 percent. In the preceding month, the price level had increased by 4.0 percent on annual basis. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.6 percent, after a 0.6 percent decrease in January. An increase of 0.7 percent had been expected.
Stocks of crude oil in the United States decreased last week, as did gasoline inventories, according to figures released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday. In the week ending March 15, crude inventories fell by 2.0 million barrels to 445.0 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 230.8 million barrels. However, inventories of heating oil and diesel increased by 0.6 million barrels to 118.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from 86.8 percent to 87.8 percent.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.71% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
China has tightened regulations on consumer credit companies to restore confidence in the financial sector and end widespread “shadow banking.” The new rules, effective on April 18th, demand higher capital requirements for non-banking loans and stricter investor ownership, significantly raising the thresholds for companies offering personal loans other than for housing or vehicles.
The euro experienced downward pressure on Tuesday as market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged, interpreted as an implicit rate hike, led to an increase in the dollar’s value. This sentiment was further influenced by mentions of potential discussions on rate cuts by European Central Bank officials in an upcoming meeting.
In February, the number of houses starting construction in the U.S. significantly increased, alongside a rise in issued building permits, according to government data. Construction starts surged by 10.7% monthly to 1.521 million homes on an annualized basis, exceeding economists’ expectations of a 7.4% increase, while building permits rose by 1.9% monthly to 1.518 million, also surpassing forecasts.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.92% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.72% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of Japan bid farewell to negative interest rates after eight years, according to the latest interest rate decision by the Japanese central bank announced on Tuesday. The monetary decision implies that short-term rates now range between 0 and 0.1 percent instead of -0.1 percent. The decision was approved by a
majority vote, with seven in favor and two board members voting against. It marks Japan’s first interest rate hike since 2007, signaling a shift in monetary policy.
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders continued to rise in March, as indicated by data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The NAHB housing index climbed from 48 in February to 51 this month, reaching its highest level since July 2023 and marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. A reading above 50 indicates positive sales conditions, marking the first time since July last year that the index surpassed this threshold.
The Netherlands raised €2.61 billion through the reopening of two short-term loans, as reported by the Ministry of Finance agency on Monday. The first loan, maturing on May 30, 2024, offers a yield of 3.77 percent, raising €1.25 billion with a total outstanding amount of €5.50 billion. The second loan, maturing on August 29, 2024, raised €1.36 billion with a yield of 3.747 percent, and has an outstanding amount of €2.46 billion.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.72% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices declined slightly on Friday after reaching the highest level of the year. The previous increases were supported by optimistic reports on oil demand in 2024 and geopolitical tensions, including attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and uncertainty surrounding the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq closed lower on Friday, because of higher inflation in the US and remarks from market strategists referring to a possible bubble in US stocks. The Federal Reserve is being monitored for potential changes in monetary policy.
On Friday, the euro fell against the dollar, partly due to disappointing US producer prices that strengthened the dollar. The markets now focus on US inflation data and central bank decisions on Wednesday. Inflation figures from France and the decision of the People’s Bank of China to leave interest rates unchanged also influenced the currency markets.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Dutch economy remains stable despite tightness in the labor and housing markets, which pose a structural challenge according to De Nederlandsche Bank. Chairman Klaas Knot emphasized the need to account for true costs, such as energy consumption and nitrogen emissions, to alleviate scarcity. Concerns also arise over inequality in the housing market and the potential departure of key companies from the Netherlands, according to Klaas Knot.
In the United States, the number of new unemployment benefit claims has slightly decreased, with a four-week moving average also declining. However, the number of extended benefit claims has risen, indicating a mixed outlook for the US labor market.
Oil prices have reached their highest level of 2024 due to an anticipated increase in demand and uncertainty surrounding supply. The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global oil demand this year, while potential disruptions in supply further bolster prices. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict a potential rise in Brent crude prices to $90 per barrel by the end of 2024.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.89% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Industrial production in the eurozone dropped more than expected in January. This was revealed on Wednesday by figures from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Industrial production in the eurozone fell by 3.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, whereas economists had anticipated a decrease of 1.1 percent. On an annual basis, production dropped by 6.7 percent against an expected contraction of 2.1 percent.
Yesterday, the British official statistics bureau reported that industrial production in the United Kingdom declined in January, as had been predicted. Production decreased by 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, following an increase of 0.6 percent in December. Analysts had predicted a production decline of 0.1 percent for January. The British goods export also dipped slightly in January. The value of the exports fell by 0.5 percent on a month-over-month basis. In contrast, imports rose by 2.0 percent. The trade balance deficit increased by 2.2 billion pounds to 13.8 billion pounds in the three months leading up to January.
In the United States, crude oil inventories fell last week, along with gasoline stocks. In the week ending March 8, crude oil inventories dropped by 1.5 million barrels to 447.0 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 5.7 million barrels to 234.1 million barrels. However, inventories of heating oil and diesel increased by 0.9 million barrels to 117.9 million barrels. The capacity utilization of refineries went up from 84.9 percent to 86.8 percent.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.
Confidence among small business owners in the United States declined marginally in February, with the confidence index remaining below the historical average for the 26th consecutive month. Inflation and high costs persist even as the labor market shows signs of improvement, making hiring and retention somewhat easier for small businesses.
The U.S. consumer price inflation for February exceeded economists’ expectations, rising to 3.2 percent year-over-year, with core inflation reaching 3.8 percent. Monthly increases for both consumer and core prices were consistent at 0.4 percent.
OPEC maintains its expectations for an increase in global oil demand, projecting higher production of 2.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and an additional production of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, while non-OPEC countries’ production is expected to rise, and global economic growth forecasts have been slightly upgraded. Despite these projections, oil prices were trading lower on Tuesday, both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.89% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.59% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Crude oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday due to ongoing concerns about demand from China. The price of a barrel of WTI fell 2.5% on a weekly basis, while Brent lost 1.1%. Analysts partly attribute the stability in prices to production cuts by OPEC+ members. Despite the recent agreement to extend voluntary production cuts into the second quarter, scepticism remains about the ability of OPEC and its allies to adhere to these cuts.
Bitcoin surged to a record high above $72,000 on Monday, continuing its strong performance. Stimulated by the introduction of new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, the cryptocurrency’s remarkable strength underscores the increasing confidence and demand in the market. Analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook, despite occasional fluctuations, as it continues to attract investors seeking alternative assets in the face of global economic uncertainty.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors awaited crucial inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The Consumer Price Index report which will published today holds significance, particularly after Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed’s desire for more confidence in inflation cooling before adjusting borrowing costs. The market is now bracing for this key data, as it could significantly influence the Fed’s policy decisions and subsequent market movements in the coming days.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.90% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.58% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
