Small business confidence in the United States continued to decline in March, reaching its lowest level since December 2012, according to data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The index fell from 89.4 in February to 88.5 in March, marking 27 months below the fifty-year average of 98.
Gold prices soared to a record high for an eighth straight session, hitting $2,365.09 per ounce, driven by momentum-following funds and geopolitical tensions. Analysts foresee further increases, with projections indicating a potential rally to $3,000 per ounce by 2025.
The sale of Dutch new-build homes rose by double digits in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year, reaching 6,100 sold homes. Despite this increase, the total number of new-build homes sold in 2023 was the lowest in the past five years, with prices rising by 3.0% compared to the previous year.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.85% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.65% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer credit in the United States increased by $14.1 billion in February, representing a decrease compared to the $17.7 billion increase in January, according to Federal Reserve data.
Oil prices rose ahead of the weekend due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with prices for West Texas Intermediate and Brent increasing. Speculation about a potential escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel fueled expectations for a rapid rise in oil prices.
In February, German import prices once again fell sharply, with a year-on-year decline of 4.9 percent and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percent, according to figures from the German Federal Statistical Office. Energy prices dropped by 20.7 percent year-on-year in February, with prices 2.6 percent lower compared to January.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.68% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Yesterday, the euro increased against the dollar due to expectations of a US interest rate cut, despite the Fed’s statements about needing more evidence of inflation decline. Producer prices in the eurozone declined again in February, mainly due to lower energy prices.
Oil prices rose again due to tensions between Israel and Iran, with West Texas Intermediate for May delivery increasing by 1.4 percent to settle at $86.59. This rise followed threats of an Iranian attack, prompted by a recent attack that claimed the lives of Iranian military personnel.
The German service sector shows growth again in March, contrary to earlier indications of slight contraction. The purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.1, the highest level in six months. An index reading above 50 indicates growth, while below 50 indicates contraction.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.82% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.64% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
On Wednesday, oil prices increased amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The May futures for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 0.3 percent to $85.43. Concerns over an escalating conflict in the Middle East heightened after Tehran announced retaliatory measures for an Israeli attack on an Iranian embassy in Syria, resulting in the death of a senior general. Earlier, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure had already driven up oil prices by reducing Russia’s refining capacity.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that more evidence of declining inflation is needed before the central bank can consider lowering interest rates. Powell made these remarks during a forum hosted by Stanford University, emphasizing that it would not be appropriate to lower rates until inflation is sustainably heading towards the 2 percent target. Powell’s comments echoed his statement from the previous Friday, emphasizing that the Fed does not need to rush given the recent uptick in US inflation, although it’s premature to conclude it signifies more than a temporary increase.
In the first quarter of this year, wage growth in the Netherlands slowed slightly but remained robust, with wages increasing by 6.8% compared to the same period in 2023. This growth was slightly lower than the previous quarter, with hourly wages increasing by 6.9%, marking a record high not seen in forty years. Wage increases have been consistently rising since the third quarter of 2021, with the most significant growth observed in the subsidized institutions sector, including healthcare, education, and defense, where wages rose by an average of 7.2%. Meanwhile, wage growth in the government and private sectors stood at 6.6% and 6.9%, respectively.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.68% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Euro zone manufacturing activity worsened in March, contracting more than in February due to declining demand, as indicated by a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) that fell to 46.1, yet optimism among managers improved as evidenced by a rise in the future output index to its highest level since April of the previous year. Despite the downturn, there was a slight increase in output and a reduction in prices, potentially easing inflationary pressures, with the European Central Bank keen on achieving its inflation targets.
In March, UK house prices experienced their highest annual increase since December 2022, with a 1.6% rise from the previous year, despite a monthly decline of 0.2%. The increase in house prices, along with a decline in mortgage rates and an improvement in mortgage approvals, suggests a gradual recovery in the housing market, amidst a broader context of economic adjustments and forecasts for further price increases in 2024.
Oil prices surged to a five-month peak due to escalating Middle East tensions and a Ukrainian drone attack on a major Russian oil refinery, with Brent crude futures reaching $88.58 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures at $84.97 per barrel. This rise comes amidst increased geopolitical risks, including indirect Iranian involvement in the Middle East and direct attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, fueling concerns over potential supply disruptions.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.85% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 10 basis points to 2.68% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Dutch industry showed a less pronounced contraction in March, according to figures from Nevi and S&P Global, as the purchasing managers’ index rose from 49.3 in February to 49.7 in March, indicating the smallest decline in 17 months. A reading below 50 refers to a contraction. Nevi noted that production increased for the first time in over a year, along with a rise in new orders for the first time in 20 months. This, combined with a second consecutive month of job growth, brought the PMI headline index closer to the breakeven point of 50.0, signalling growth.
In March, the American manufacturing industry grew for the first time since September 2022, driven by a sharp recovery in production and increased demand, despite rising import costs. The Institute of Supply Management’s leading index rose 2.5 points to 50.3, indicating expansion compared to the previous month after sixteen months of contraction. Production rebounded significantly from the previous month, with the strongest growth since June 2022.
France aims to attract high-tech companies, particularly in semiconductors and artificial intelligence, supported by low energy rates and favourable transportation connections. The focus on technology sets France apart positively in the competition with other European countries, as evidenced by the number of foreign investment projects it attracted in 2022, which increased by 3% compared to the previous year.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.85% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.58% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
American economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 exceeded economists’ expectations, with a growth rate of 3.4 percent compared to the expected 3.2 percent. This performance reflected a gradual slowdown in growth following a strong increase of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of the same year.
Yesterday, the euro declined against the dollar due to remarks from Fed official Christopher Waller, suggesting that a Fed interest rate cut in June is less likely. Capital markets still expect that the Fed will cut rates, albeit possibly after further evidence of inflation reaching the desired 2 percent.
In Germany, the number of unemployed rose slightly in March, by 4,000 people, which was lower than the expected increase of 10,000 according to economists. Despite this uptick, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.9 percent, with a total of 2.769 million unemployed in March.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.86% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.58% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer confidence in the eurozone improved in March, according to final figures released by the European Commission on Wednesday. The index that reflects confidence increased by 0.6 points to -14.9. The index for economic sentiment in the eurozone rose by 0.8 points to 96.3 in March. The employment expectations index remained roughly stable at 102.6. Confidence in the industry increased fractionally, as did confidence in the services sector.
Dutch producers in the industry were slightly more negative in March. This became apparent on Wednesday from figures released by the Netherlands’ Central Bureau of Statistics. The confidence index went from -4.2 in February to -4.8 in March. Manufacturers were less positive about the expected business activity and more negative about their inventories. Producer confidence in March was below the 20-year average of -1.3. The confidence reached its highest value in October 2021 at 10.4. The lowest value was recorded in April 2020 at -31.5.
In the United States, crude inventories increased last week. This was evident from figures released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. In the week ending March 22, crude oil inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels to 448.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels to 232.1 million barrels. Inventories of heating oil and diesel decreased by 1.2 million barrels to 117.3 million barrels. Refinery utilization rates increased from 87.8 percent to 88.7 percent.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.86% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.58% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Dutch industrial producers were slightly more negative in March, with the confidence index declining from -4.2 to -4.8, attributed to less positive expectations for business activity and more negative views on inventories. This level of confidence is below the 20-year average, contrasting with the record high and low experienced in October 2021 and April 2020, respectively.
In February, US durable goods orders increased more than expected, with a 1.4% rise over the previous month against economists’ predictions of a 1.0% increase. Excluding transportation and defense orders, increases were seen at 0.5% and 2.2% respectively, despite a significant drop in orders in January 2023.
In January 2024, US house prices in the 20 largest cities rose by 6.6% year-on-year, accelerating from a 6.2% increase the month before, with a slight monthly decrease of 0.1%. The 10 largest cities even saw a more significant annual increase of 7.4%, despite no change on a monthly basis.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.86% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.63% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The United States saw a decline in the sale of new single-family homes in February compared to the previous month, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The number of newly sold single-family homes dropped by 0.3 percent to 662,000 units, slightly lower than the previously reported figure of 664,000 units for the preceding month. Economists had anticipated an increase to 675,000 units for February. However, on a year-over-year basis, home sales rose by 5.9 percent. The average selling price stood at $485,000 last month.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the yuan’s reference rate more than expected, aiming to achieve certain objectives. Firstly, the central bank aims to avoid being labeled a currency manipulator, and secondly, a stronger yuan benefits foreign investors by increasing the value of their Chinese assets. This move seeks to reassure foreign investors amid significant outflows of foreign capital in recent months. The Japanese yen rebounded, following the historic interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan last week. Traders anticipate that Japan’s interest rates will remain low for some time, maintaining significant interest rate differentials with the United States and Europe.
Oil prices closed higher on Monday due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine. Oil futures decreased for the third consecutive session on Friday, limiting the gains for both WTI and Brent. The U.S. urged Ukraine last week to halt drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, fearing that it could spike global oil prices and provoke retaliations. Ukraine denied the attacks, which reportedly took approximately 7 percent of Russian refining capacity offline.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 3.87% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
