Retail sales in the Eurozone increased in March, rising by 0.8% month-over-month after a decline of 0.5% in February, outperforming initial expectations of a 0.6% increase.
India’s fuel demand rose by 6.1% year-on-year in April, reflecting increased economic activities and consumption patterns. The growth was led predominantly by petrol and diesel, with total fuel consumption reaching 19.86 million metric tons. Despite the monthly decline, the continued growth underscores India’s significant role as the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer.
The OECD forecasts the growth rate for the UK to be the lowest among all advanced nations next year with a projected GDP increase of just 0.4%, highlighting challenges from high interest rates and ongoing inflation. While the global economy is expected to stabilize with a growth rate of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, the UK’s performance will lag behind other major economies, reflecting broader monetary policy impacts on recovery and consumption.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.79% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.71% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Netherlands raised 3.04 billion euros on Monday afternoon through the issuance of short-term bonds, as announced by the Ministry of Finance. The reopening of a loan maturing on August 29 offered a yield of 3.678 percent. Despite bids totalling 3.16 billion euros, just 1.49 billion euros were awarded, leaving the outstanding amount under the loan at 3.95 billion euros.
The services sector in the eurozone showed faster growth in April, according to data from S&P Global. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the services sector rose to 53.3 from 51.5 the previous month, reaching its highest level in eleven months. While the services sector continued to rebound, the PMI for the eurozone’s manufacturing sector declined last week from 46.1 to 45.7.
The euro maintained a stable position against the dollar on Monday morning, hovering around 1.0770, after the European currency briefly surged on Friday following the release of the US jobs report, which showed disappointing employment growth. After the jobs report, the euro increased to 1.08 USD on Friday before retracting to around 1.0765 USD.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The British services sector showed slightly more growth in April than previously measured, according to final figures from S&P Global. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) measuring the country’s services sector activity stood at 55.0 compared to 53.1 the previous month, with a preliminary reading reporting an index of 54.9. However, the purchasing managers’ index for the British industry declined from 50.3 to 49.1, resulting in the composite index rising from 52.8 to 54.1, with an index reading above 50 indicating growth.
In April, job growth in the United States fell significantly below expectations, with only 175,000 jobs added, compared to the anticipated 240,000. Unemployment reached 3.9 percent, 10 basis points higher than expected. Hourly earnings rose by 0.2 percent to 34.75 dollar, with a yearly wage growth of 3.9 percent, slightly lower than economists’ forecast of 4.0 percent.
Oil prices closed lower, marking the largest weekly percentage loss since early February. The June futures for a barrel of WTI crude oil settled at 78.11 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 1.06 percent on Friday. This amounted to a weekly loss of 6.85 percent, although the price remains 9.02 percent higher year-on-year. The decline was attributed to reduced concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East, robust U.S. production, and increasing American inventories, coinciding with a decrease in demand and worsening economic growth. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East are expected to remain a key focus next week, with traders noting that reduced tensions in the region have led to a lower risk premium, limiting upward pressure on oil prices, although risks remain high.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 3.83% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.78% compared to previous business day.
Brussels offers Lebanon €1 billion in support until 2028 to address the economic crisis, on the condition that Beirut stops the influx of Syrian refugees to the European Union. The funds will be allocated to housing, healthcare, education, and improved border control, with over €250 million directed towards economic development. This assistance is in addition to the €2.6 billion that the EU has already invested in the Lebanese refugee crisis since 2011.
In March, both the export and import of the United States decreased, therefore the trade deficit will not change according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Exports decreased by 2.0 percent to $257.6 billion, while imports decreased by 1.6 percent to $327.0 billion. This kept the U.S. trade deficit stable at $69.4 billion, almost matching the predicted $69.5 billion. The deficits with China and the European Union were $24.1 billion and $19.5 billion, respectively.
According to final figures from S&P Global released on Thursday, the eurozone’s industry showed slightly less contraction in April than previously measured. The purchasing managers’ index for the currency union’s industry decreased from 46.1 to 45.7, with the preliminary index at 45.6.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.82% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Activity in the American manufacturing sector turned contracted in April, according to data released on Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) decreased from 50.3 in March to 49.2 in April. The market had anticipated an index of 50.1. The PMI as compiled by S&P Global indicated a stagnation in industrial sector activity. The index dropped from 51.9 to 50.0. An index value above 50 indicates growth, while a value below 50 signifies contraction.
The British manufacturing sector showed less contraction in April than was previously reported, according to final data released on Wednesday by S&P Global. The PMI for British manufacturing turned out to have decreased from 50.3 to 49.1, compared to a preliminary figure recorded at 48.7.
Employment in the private sector in the United States grew slightly faster than expected in April, as reported by payroll processor ADP on Wednesday. The number of jobs increased by 192,000, following a revised increase of 208,000 a month earlier. Initially, a rise of 184,000 jobs had been reported for March. Economists had forecasted a growth of 183,000 jobs. Salaries rose by 5.0 percent on an annual basis, according to the report. Employees who changed jobs saw a 9.3 percent increase.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.82% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Euro zone economy rebounded in the first quarter, with Germany returning to growth and expansion accelerating in other euro zone countries, while inflation steadied, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Gross domestic product in the 20-country bloc increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in January-March, beating market expectations and reflecting a slow recovery in line with IMF projections.
Growth in China’s manufacturing and services sectors slowed in April, indicating a loss of momentum at the start of the second quarter for the world’s second-biggest economy. However, first quarter GDP data were solid. The slowdown highlights erratic demand and underscores challenges for policymakers.
The Bank of Japan expressed optimism regarding consumption and service price trends which progress towards its 2% inflation target. Labour shortages are driving up wages, prompting more firms to raise service prices which cause increasing long-term inflation expectations.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.82% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its strict monetary policy on Wednesday and warn the market about the risk of further delays in interest rate cuts. This is due to persistent high inflation and strong economic growth, which could lead to a hawkish approach from Chairman Jerome Powell.
Consumer confidence in the eurozone improved in April, rising from -14.9 to -14.7, but remained negative. At the same time, the index for economic sentiment in the eurozone fell by 0.6 points to 95.6.
German inflation edged up slightly in April, with consumer prices increasing by 0.5 percent on a monthly basis, slightly below the expectation of 0.6 percent. On an annual basis, inflation remained stable at 2.2 percent, while core inflation fell from 3.3 to 3.0 percent.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.81% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US core inflation remained stable at 2.8 percent on an annual basis in March, which was higher than the expected decline to 2.7 percent. The overall price index rose to 2.7 percent, while economists had predicted an increase to 2.6 percent. In March, incomes increased by 0.5 percent and US spending by 0.8 percent, both higher than expected.
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate and Brent rising to 83.85 dollars and over 88 dollars per barrel, respectively. On a weekly basis, oil prices increased between 1.0 and 2.0 percent. Analysts warn of possible stagnation due to the combination of high inflation and economic slowdown in the US, which could weaken energy demand outlook.
The euro remained remarkably stable on Friday, despite growing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s policy after new inflation data. The chances of Fed lowering rates declines with higher inflation. The euro edged 0.1 percent higher to 1.0742 dollars on Friday. The European currency remained flat at 0.8576 British pounds. The British pound rose 0.1 percent to 1.2523 dollars. The dollar declined from 156.80 to 155.60 yen.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.83% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Both the US stock markets and global markets experienced sharp declines on Thursday, accompanied by rising bond yields. This followed after publication of growth figures for the US economy. In the first quarter growth came in lower than expected, registering only 1.6 percent. By contrast, in the fourth quarter, growth stood at 3.4 percent. Furthermore, consumer prices surged by 3.4 percent in the first quarter, marking a substantial increase from the 1.8 percent rise seen in the previous quarter. Core prices also saw an uptick, rising by 3.7 percent compared to the 2.0 percent observed in the final quarter of 2023.
Consumer confidence in Germany improved for May, according to data from research firm GfK. The confidence index rose from -27.3 in March to -24.2 for May. This exceeded economists’ expectations, who had predicted the index to reach -26.0.
The Turkish central bank announced Thursday afternoon that it will keep the interest rate unchanged. This follows an earlier interest rate hike in March when the rate was raised from 45.00 to 50.00 percent. In March, the central bank observed higher underlying inflation than expected, with a price increase of 68.5 percent on an annual basis and 3.2 percent on a monthly basis. In the medium term, the central bank of the country aims for an inflation rate of 5.00 percent.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.83% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.92% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Crude oil inventories in the United States saw a significant drop last week, according to figures released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. For the week ending on April 19, crude oil inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels to 226.7 million barrels. However, distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel, did rise by 1.6 million barrels to 116.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization rates climbed from 88.1 to 88.5 percent.
New orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose in March as expected, according to figures from the U.S. government released on Wednesday. Orders were 2.6 percent higher last month compared to a month earlier, which matched economists’ forecasts for a 2.6 percent increase. Excluding transportation, which includes automobiles, orders were 0.2 percent higher. Orders excluding defense contracts rose by 2.3 percent. Orders in February increased by 0.7 percent on a monthly basis, revised from an initially reported uptick of 1.4 percent.
The Ifo index for the business climate in Germany rose slightly more than expected in April, figures from the German research institute Ifo showed on Wednesday. The composite index for the German business climate in industry and trade increased from 87.9 to 89.4 this month, with analysts having predicted a rise to 88.8. The sub-index for current conditions registered at 88.9, while the sub-index for expectations stood at 89.9.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.84% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 2.89% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
