In May, Dutch consumer confidence declined, according to Statistics Netherlands, with the confidence index dropping from -21 in April to -22 in May. The assessment of the economic climate became more negative, though the willingness to buy was slightly less negative. At -22, confidence was well below the twenty-year average of -10. The highest level ever recorded was 36 in January 2000, while the lowest level was -59 in September and October 2022.

The American manufacturing and services sectors grew faster in May than in the previous month, according to preliminary purchasing managers’ indices from S&P Global. The index for manufacturing rose from 50.0 to 50.9, and the index for the services sector increased from 51.3 to 54.8. The composite index reached 54.4, compared to 51.3 in April. This is the highest level in over two years.

The eurozone economy showed more growth in May, but slightly less than expected, according to preliminary figures from S&P Global. The purchasing managers’ index for the services sector remained stable at 53.3, while 53.5 was expected. The index for the manufacturing sector rose from 45.7 to 47.4, above the expected 46.1. As a result, the composite index increased from 51.7 to 52.3, slightly higher than the expected 51.8.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.78% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.84% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Oil prices closed lower for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, following a rise in U.S. oil inventories. West Texas Intermediate settled at $77.57, down 1.4 percent. In the week ending May 17, crude oil inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels. Inventories of heating oil and diesel rose by 0.4 million barrels, and refinery utilization capacity increased from 90.4 to 91.7 percent.

Consumer prices in the United Kingdom rose more than expected in April, according to figures from the ONS released on Wednesday. On an annual basis, prices rose by 2.3 percent, compared to economists’ forecast of a 2.1 percent increase. The previous month saw a price level increase of 3.2 percent. Prices rose by 0.3 percent on a monthly basis, following a 0.6 percent increase a month earlier. A 0.2 percent increase was expected.

Existing home sales in the United States fell in April, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released on Wednesday. On a monthly basis, sales decreased by 1.9 percent to 4.14 million homes on an annualized basis. Economists had anticipated a 1.4 percent increase to 4.25 million sold homes.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.78% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.80% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

German home prices are expected to decline by 2% in 2024, a smaller drop than in 2023, due to anticipated lower borrowing costs. Despite this, the supply of affordable homes will continue to fall short of demand with a significant shortfall predicted over the next two to three years.

The International Monetary Fund warned the UK government against implementing pre-election tax cuts, suggesting that future tax increases might be necessary to meet debt targets. While the IMF upgraded the UK’s economic growth forecast for 2024 to 0.7%, it criticized recent tax policies and projected that the public debt will continue to rise, advising the government to consider new revenue-raising measures.

China announced significant measures to stabilize its struggling property sector, including 1 trillion yuan in extra funding and eased mortgage rules. Despite these efforts, analysts remain cautious about their effectiveness in boosting private sector demand and restoring confidence in the real estate market.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.79% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.77% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Producer prices in Germany declined more sharply in April than the previous month, according to figures from Destatis, the German statistics office. On a yearly basis, prices fell by 3.3 percent, compared to a 2.9 percent decline in March. Energy prices dropped by 8.2 percent year-over-year. On a monthly basis, producer prices rose by 0.2 percent in April, while energy prices fell by 0.1 percent.

After a positive 18-month period, U.S. macroeconomic data is showing signs of weakening. This is evidenced by the decline in purchasing managers’ indexes in April, the cooling U.S. labor market, and weakened consumer confidence and housing market. This weakening has contributed to the U.S. economic indices turning significantly negative for the first time since early last year.

It appears that currency markets have entered calmer waters, allowing the US dollar to stabilize. This is evident from the period between last week’s U.S. inflation data release and the upcoming PCE inflation report at the end of next week. According to market analysts, May has so far brought a weak US dollar, strong risk sentiment, and rising expectations for easing by the Federal Reserve. The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.79% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.80% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The Japanese economy contracted again in the first quarter of this year, according to data from the Japanese government. Economists had expected a contraction of 0.4 percent, but the actual contraction was 0.5 percent on a quarterly basis. This marks a continuing challenge for Japan, as its gross domestic product had already contracted by 0.9 percent in the third quarter of last year. On an annual basis, the economy contracted by 2.0 percent in the first quarter, highlighting concerns about the country’s economic growth.

 

Data from the US Department of Labor indicates that American import prices rose in April. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.9 percent compared to a rise of 0.6 percent the previous month, which exceeded economists’ expectations of 0.3 percent. Fuel import prices increased by 2.4 percent following a 5.4 percent rise the previous month. Export prices increased by 0.5 percent on a monthly basis, while on an annual basis, import prices were 1.1 percent higher and export prices were 1.0 percent lower.

 

On Thursday, oil prices continued to rise, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) becoming 0.8 percent more expensive, reaching a price of $79.23. The price for a barrel of Brent increased by 0.7 percent to $83.27. These price increases followed Wednesday’s news that U.S. oil inventories had declined for the second consecutive week. Additionally, favorable inflation figures from the United States also positively impacted oil futures.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.74% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The economy in the eurozone grew faster in the first quarter of this year. This was evident from figures released by the statistics agency Eurostat on Wednesday. Growth reached 0.3 percent on a quarterly basis in the first three months of the year, in line with an earlier estimate. On an annual basis, the eurozone economy grew by 0.4 percent, also in line with previous figures. In the fourth quarter, the economy in the eurozone still contracted by 0.1 percent on a quarterly basis, but the GDP rose by 0.1 percent on an annual basis.

The Dutch economy shrank again in the first quarter. This was shown by figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics released on Wednesday. Over the quarter, the gross domestic product decreased by 0.1 percent compared with the fourth quarter, according to an initial calculation of Statistics Netherlands. In the last quarter of 2023, the Dutch economy still grew by 0.3 percent on a quarterly basis. The slight decline of GDP in the first quarter is mainly attributable to the export of goods and a greater withdrawal from inventories, according to Statistics Netherlands.

Consumer prices in the United States in April rose as expected. This was evident from figures released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday. Consumer prices increased by 3.4 percent on an annual basis in April, versus 3.5 percent a month earlier. Economists had also expected an inflation rate of 3.4 percent. Core inflation, which is adjusted for food and energy prices, was 3.6 percent on an annual basis compared with 3.8 percent a month earlier. Economists had also expected a rate of 3.6 percent.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 12 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for patience in monetary policy, noting that despite unexpected high inflation rates in the first quarter, the restrictive measures need time to take effect. This cautious stance comes amid continuing signs of inflation pressures, as evidenced by higher-than-expected U.S. producer prices, contrasting with the European Central Bank’s optimism about easing inflation and potential interest rate reductions.

U.S. producer prices in April rose more sharply than expected with a month-over-month increase of 0.5% following a revised drop in March, while core prices excluding volatile elements like trade, food, and energy also saw a rise. Year-on-year prices showed a 2.2% increase from a previous 1.8%, and core prices escalated to 3.1% from 2.8% in March.

OPEC has maintained its oil demand growth forecast for 2024 at 2.2 million barrels per day, unchanged from the previous month’s report. The decline in expected demand from the Middle East will not be compensated by slight increases from the US and China. Production by non-OPEC+ countries is expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day this year, led by increases in the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Norway.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.82% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that American consumers expect inflation to increase in the coming years, along with accelerating home price increases. Respondents expect inflation to be at 3.3% in a year and anticipate a 3.3% increase in home prices over a year, the highest level since July 2022.

French President Emmanuel Macron does not rule out the possibility of a major French bank being sold to a European competitor, in an effort to promote consolidation in the European banking sector. Macron emphasized the need for a European capital markets union to stimulate growth in the European Union during a TV interview on Monday.

In April 2024, the number of bankruptcies in the Netherlands increased slightly, with 353 companies declared bankrupt after correction for court session days, compared to 333 in March. This is according to data from Statistics Netherlands, with the trade sector recording the highest number of bankruptcies.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.79% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.78% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The British economy grew by 0.6 percent in the first quarter, following a 0.3 and 0.1 percent contraction of the GDP in the fourth- and third quarter respectively, according to the UK’s Office for National Statistics. On an annual basis, the British economy expanded by 0.2 percent in the first three months of 2024.

In May, consumer confidence in the US economy declined significantly, with the University of Michigan index dropping from 77.2 to 67.4 compared to April. Both the current economic climate and future expectations worsened, with sub-indices decreasing from 79.0 to 68.8 and from 76.0 to 66.5, respectively. The inflation expectation for the next 12 months rose to 3.5 percent from 3.2 percent at the end of April, while the forecast for the next 5 years increased from 3.0 to 3.1 percent.

Oil prices declined on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate settling at 78.26 dollar per barrel, down 1.3 percent, and Brent crude falling over one percent to 82.85 dollar. Optimism regarding Chinese demand and escalating tensions in the Middle East provided support, but a drop in US consumer confidence dampened sentiment. Meanwhile, investors continue to weigh demand dynamics against supply risks stemming from geopolitical tensions.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.80% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The Bank of England maintained the key interest rate today at 5.25 percent. The decision followed recent economic figures indicating an expected growth of 0.4 percent in the first quarter of the British economy, with a forecast of further slowdown to 0.2 percent in the second quarter. Shortly after the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, the British pound fell by 0.3 percent to 1.2456 US dollars.

According to data from the Chinese government released on Thursday, Chinese exports surged more in April than expected. On an annual basis, exports in US dollars rose by 1.5 percent, exceeding the predicted increase of 1.0 percent, following a 7.5 percent decline the previous month. Imports increased by 8.4 percent, after a previous decrease of 1.9 percent in March, surpassing economists’ forecasted rise of 4.5 percent. As a result, China’s trade surplus in April amounted to 72.35 billion US dollars, below the anticipated 77.1 billion US dollars.

In the week ending on May 4th, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States rose sharply to 231,000, an increase of 22,000 compared to the previous period. 214,000 applications were expected. The four-week moving average also increased to 215,000, a rise of 4,750. Additionally, the number of extended assistance claims rose to 1,785,000 in the week ending April 27th, an increase of 17,000.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.78% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.