South Korea’s inflation slowed to a 3.5-year low in August, with consumer prices rising by 2% year-on-year, which aligns with the central bank’s inflation target and supports expectations for a rate cut as early as October. While inflation appears to be stabilizing, rising household debt adds uncertainty to the timing of potential policy easing.
Malaysia’s central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate at 3.0% through at least 2025 due to strong economic growth and controlled inflation, according to a Reuters poll. The stable ringgit and potential inflationary risks from reducing fuel subsidies suggest the bank is in no hurry to lower rates soon.
The World Bank raised India’s growth forecast to 7% for the current fiscal year, driven by increased government infrastructure spending. While India’s economy is expected to remain strong in the medium term, challenges like high urban unemployment persist.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.35% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.51% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The contraction in the eurozone’s manufacturing sector stabilized in August, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remaining unchanged at 45.8. Although a drop to 45.6 was initially expected, the index held steady. The situation is deteriorating rapidly according to analysts, and with a slowdown in new orders, there is little prospect of short-term improvement. An index below 50 indicates contraction.
The UK manufacturing sector grew faster in August, with the PMI rising from 52.1 to 52.5, the highest level in 26 months. An index above 50 indicates growth.
China’s manufacturing sector saw slight growth in August, with the PMI increasing from 49.8 in July to 50.4. This follows a contraction in July, the first in nine months.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.57% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
OPEC+ will gradually increase oil production starting in October, despite concerns about declining demand, particularly in China. Production disruptions in Libya and voluntary production cuts by some members are tightening supply, offsetting the impact of lower demand. Eight OPEC+ members will increase their production by 180,000 barrels per day, while other restrictions will remain in place until the end of 2025. Following this news, oil prices dropped by about 2%.
Producer prices in the Dutch industry rose by 0.9% year-on-year in July, following a 0.7% increase in June. However, on a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.3%. The price of North Sea Brent oil, which influences industrial prices, was over 7% higher in July than a year earlier. As a result, products from the petroleum industry were 4.0% more expensive, and prices in the chemical industry increased by 1.6%.
U.S. core inflation remained stable at 2.6% in July, while a slight increase to 2.7% was expected. General inflation also remained unchanged at 2.5%. Both the core PCE and the general price index rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis, in line with expectations. Incomes increased by 0.3%, slightly more than expected, and consumer spending rose by 0.5%, matching predictions.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.38% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.54% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In August, Dutch consumer prices rose by 3.6 percent year-on-year, a slight decrease from 3.7 percent in July, according to preliminary figures from Statistics Netherlands.
In the second quarter of 2024, the US economy grew by 3.0 percent, faster than the previously estimated 2.8 percent, according to final figures from the Department of Commerce. The growth for the first quarter remained unchanged at 1.4 percent. The PCE inflation for the quarter was revised down from 2.6 to 2.5 percent, and core inflation was adjusted from 2.9 to 2.8 percent.
In August, German consumer prices rose by 1.9 percent year-on-year, less than the expected 2.1 percent and down from 2.3 percent in July. On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.1 percent, against an expected rise of 0.1 percent. Core inflation slightly decreased from 2.9 to 2.8 percent, while energy prices fell by 5.1 percent year-on-year.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.52% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The German economy contracted slightly in the second quarter of this year, according to final figures from the German statistical office Destatis released on Wednesday morning. On a quarterly basis, a contraction of 0.1 percent was registered, matching the preliminary figures from the end of July. In the first quarter, the economy grew by 0.2 percent. On an annual basis, gross domestic product remained stable in the second quarter. Economists had expected a decline of 0.1 percent, in line with the preliminary figure that pointed to a contraction of 0.1 percent.
Crude oil inventories in the United States declined last week, according to figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. In the week ending on August 23, crude oil inventories fell by 0.8 million barrels to 425.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels to 218.4 million barrels. Inventories of heating oil and diesel increased by 0.3 million barrels to 123.1 million barrels. Refinery capacity utilization rose from 92.3 percent to 93.3 percent.
Consumer confidence in France further increased in August, according to figures from the French statistical office Insee released on Wednesday. The confidence index stood at 92, up from 91 in July and 90 in June.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.50% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Mortgage rates in the Netherlands are decreasing this summer, especially for longer fixed-rate periods. Rates for five-year fixed terms have not yet reached their lowest point. It is expected that rates will drop further if central banks lower their rates in coming months. In 2022, rates rose sharply due to inflation and central bank interest rate hikes, but rates have been declining, leading to an increase in mortgage applications.
Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy improved in August, with the confidence index rising from 101.9 in July to 103.3. Expectations for the next six months also increased, with the expectations index rising from 81.1 to 82.5, indicating that the chances of a recession within a year are decreasing. The assessment of the current situation also improved, from 133.1 to 134.4.
The British pound reached its highest level since March 2022 against the dollar on Tuesday, rising to $1.33, partly due to expectations that the Bank of England will lower interest rates less aggressively than the U.S. Federal Reserve. The pound is also gaining value against the euro, currently around €1.19. The U.S. dollar is losing ground due to anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.40% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.53% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Yesterday, investors shifted towards riskier assets in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, moving away from tech megacaps. Over 80% of S&P 500 stocks rose, with funds rotating into small caps. This follows Jerome Powell’s hint of rate cuts in September. The S&P 500 stayed near 5,620, the Russell 2000 climbed 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.1%, and a Bloomberg index of major tech firms fell 1.8%.
Libya’s eastern government announced the shutdown of crude output and exports due to a conflict with the Tripoli-based government over the central bank and oil resources, raising concerns of renewed conflict. Brent crude prices surged by up to 3.2% to over $81 a barrel. This move, declared as “force majeure,” could push Brent crude prices temporarily to the mid-$80s according to Citi’s analysis.
Exxon Mobil Corp. predicts that global oil demand in 2050 will be at or slightly above current levels, challenging the goal of net zero carbon emissions by mid-century. Demand is expected to remain over 100 million barrels a day due to industrial uses. The International Energy Agency suggests demand must drop 75% by 2050 to meet Paris Agreement goals. Exxon also forecasts a 25% decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, starting from 2030, but this may not suffice to prevent significant climate change.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 3.38% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.50% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The energy price cap in the United Kingdom will be raised by 10% starting October 1, leading to higher energy bills for millions of households. This increase coincides with new rules that limit the number of pensioners eligible for heating subsidies. The cap is expected to rise again by 3% in January, further fuelling inflation and making it more difficult for the government to fulfil its promise of lower bills.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is on the verge of lowering interest rates to prevent further weakening of the labor market, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated during the Jackson Hole symposium. Although Powell did not provide details on the size of the rate cut, the market expects a reduction of 25 or 50 basis points in September. Powell emphasized that future decisions depend on economic data. Financial markets responded positively to his remarks, with rising stock prices and a declining dollar. The upcoming jobs report will be crucial for further rate cuts.
Business confidence in France slightly increased in August, according to a report from the French statistics agency Insee on Friday. The index rose from 94 to 97 but remains below the long-term average of 100.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.48% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In July, existing home sales in the United States increased by 1.3 percent to 3.95 million homes, as expected by economists. The median sales price rose by 4.2 percent, reaching 422,600 dollars. These figures are reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Global steel production decreased by 4.7 percent in July compared to a year earlier, primarily due to a 9 percent decline in China, the largest steel producer. In South Korea, production fell by 3.4 percent, while the European Union saw a 5.7 percent increase, with growth of 4.8 percent in Germany and 2.1 percent in the US. These figures are reported by the World Steel Association.
In August, the French services sector grew significantly, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising from 50.1 to 55.0, the highest level in 27 months. Meanwhile, the contraction in the industry accelerated, with the index dropping from 44.0 to 42.1, the lowest level in 8 months. Consequently, the composite index rose from 49.1 to 52.7, indicating overall growth.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.50% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Employment in the United States has grown substantially less over the past year than previously reported. This was revealed Wednesday from the annual revision by the U.S. Department of Labor. Job growth in the period from April 2023 to March 2024 was 818,000 lower than previously reported, which means that the labor market cooled earlier and faster than expected. The revised estimate means that the U.S. economy added approximately 2.1 million jobs during that period. Initially, job growth was estimated at 2.9 million jobs. The lower job growth gives the Federal Reserve additional impetus to lower interest rates in September, as is widely expected.
The European Union has already achieved its target to fill its gas reserves to a minimum of 90 percent. This was reported by the European Commission Wednesday. The goal was achieved ten weeks before the November 1 deadline. With these reserves, the EU has covered a third of its total gas consumption during the winter. This means the EU is well-prepared for the upcoming winter, stated Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy. Last year, the 90 percent target was reached on August 18. According to figures from the Dutch Gasunie, reserves in the Netherlands were 86.9 percent filled as of August 19.
Investments in the Netherlands declined in June. This was reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on Wednesday. The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 10.3 percent lower than a year earlier, CBS reported. This is mainly due to reduced investments in buildings, infrastructure, aircraft, passenger cars, and machinery. The figures are not adjusted for working days. June 2024 had two fewer working days than June 2023. According to CBS, the conditions for investments in August are “less favorable” than was the case in June.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.44% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
