Employment in the United States grew by 206,000 jobs in June, slightly more than the expected 200,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent. Wage growth was 0.1 percent on a monthly basis and 3.86 percent annually, slightly lower than the expected 3.9 percent. Job growth for May was significantly revised from 272,000 to 218,000, and the figure for April was corrected from 165,000 to 108,000.

In May, German industrial production fell by 2.5 percent compared to the previous month, while economists had expected a decrease of 0.2 percent. In April, the decline was only 0.1 percent. On a yearly basis, German production decreased by 6.7 percent in May, after a decline of 3.7 percent in April.

Oil prices closed lower on Friday after Independence Day but rose by 2.0 percent on a weekly basis. Analysts noted that oil futures are recovering from the low levels of early June, resulting in a rally of over 10 dollars to the highest point in two months. Weekly EIA reports showed a larger-than-expected decline in oil inventories, supporting prices despite concerns about slowing growth.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.68% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.80% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

In the first quarter, assets of Dutch pension funds increased by 2 percent to € 1,687 billion, mainly due to capital gains on stocks and participations totaling nearly € 36 billion. The Dutch Central Bank reported that the global MSCI stock index rose by 11 percent, resulting in a € 26 billion increase in equities. Participations in investment funds rose by € 10 billion, despite a decline in the value of debt funds. On the other hand, the value of debt securities decreased by € 9.4 billion, and the value interest rate derivatives dropped by € 2 billion. Pension liabilities slightly decreased by € 0.9 billion.

German factory orders fell by 1.6 percent in May compared to the previous month, contrary to analysts’ expectations of an increase. This marks the fifth consecutive month of decline. On an annual basis, orders in May dropped by 8.6 percent, following a 1.8 percent decrease in April. Statistics bureau Destatis released the figures on Thursday.

The Portuguese government plans to reinstate controversial tax benefits for expats, despite criticism that tax benefits exacerbate the housing market crisis. Former Prime Minister Antonio Costa abolished these tax benefits in 2023, the benefits cost the treasury about €1.5 billion in 2022. From 2009 until the end of 2022, expats in Portugal enjoyed significant tax advantages on both domestic and foreign income, including pensions. The new policy, however, restricts tax benefits to the domestic income of expats.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.68% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.85% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Producer prices in the eurozone fell again in May, according to Eurostat, the European statistics office, on Wednesday. On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 0.2 percent in May. In April, the decline was 1.0 percent. On an annual basis, producer prices decreased by 4.2 percent in June. A month earlier, the decrease was 5.7 percent. The decline was partly attributed to lower energy prices. Excluding energy prices, producer prices in May increased by 0.1 percent on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, prices excluding energy decreased 0.4 percent in May.

The service sector in the eurozone grew less in June, according to final figures reported by S&P Global on Wednesday. The index for the service sector fell from 53.2 to 52.8. Economists had expected an index of 52.6. The purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector in the eurozone appeared to have dropped from 47.3 to 45.8 on Monday. The composite index thus fell from 52.2 to 50.9, the lowest level in three months.

Growth in the U.S. service sector rose more than expected in June. This was evident from data published by S&P Global on Wednesday. The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector increased from 54.8 in May to 55.3 in June. An improvement to 55.1 was expected.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.68% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.83% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Euro area inflation eased slightly to 2.5% in June, but services costs remained high at 4.1%, raising concerns among policymakers about persistent price pressures. Despite moderating energy and food costs, core inflation held steady at 2.9%, prompting debate over the timing of future interest rate cuts.

South Korea’s consumer inflation dropped to an 11-month low of 2.4% in June, below market expectations, as supply pressures eased. The decline provides relief for policymakers and raises expectations that the central bank may start cutting interest rates later this year.

UK shop price inflation slowed to 0.2% in June, the lowest since October 2021, as promotions on non-food goods and a 14th consecutive month of slowing food inflation helped ease price pressures. The cooling inflation provides some relief for shoppers and raises questions about potential interest rate cuts by the central bank.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.68% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.87% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Bank of America warns in a note on Monday that the lock-in effect keeping U.S. housing subdued could persist for six to eight years. The wide gap between current and effective mortgage rates discourages homeowners from moving. Even if the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates may not drop significantly. During the pandemic, many owners refinanced to record-low effective rates. As the Fed has raised rates to combat inflation, current mortgage rates have risen. More than half of outstanding mortgages have effective rates of 4% or lower, while the current 30-year fixed rate hovers around 7%.

Markets reacted with relief to the French election results. The victory of the Rassemblement National (RN) in the first round of the French parliamentary elections was smaller than some polls expected and financial markets feared. As a result, investors are relieved by the outcome. Although an absolute majority for the far-right block in the French parliament is still within reach, the second round of elections next Sunday could alter the situation. For French President Emmanuel Macron and his center-right alliance, it was a significant electoral defeat. In consultation with the left-wing coalition, the alliance is now considering which candidates should withdraw to prevent Le Pen’s alliance from achieving an absolute majority of seats.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) now estimates the U.S. fiscal 2024 deficit at $1.9 trillion, an increase from the previous estimate of $1.6 trillion in February and the 2023 deficit of $1.7 trillion. Despite being lower than the pandemic-era high of $3 trillion, the 2024 deficit nearly matches Russia’s 2023 GDP, which the World Bank reported at $2 trillion. According to the CBO, part of the increase in the projected deficit is due to emergency spending for Ukraine, Israel, and U.S. allies in Asia. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley warned that rising interest rates could increase debt service costs, further escalating the deficit. In addition, he states that debt that was issued at lower rates is now being rolled over at higher rates, so debt service costs are increasing more rapidly than total debt.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.68% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.89% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Producer prices in the Dutch industry fell by 0.3 percent in May compared to last year, after a stable month in April. Since April 2023, producer prices have been under pressure. The development of producer prices is closely linked to the price trends of crude oil. In May, a barrel of crude North Sea Brent cost nearly 77 euros, which was more than 10 percent higher than a year earlier.

The number of unemployed in Germany increased by 19,000 in June, while economists had expected an increase of 10,000. As a result, the unemployment rate rose from 5.9 percent to 6.0 percent. In total, 2.726 million were unemployed in June, compared to 2.722 million in May.

Core inflation in the United States decreased from 2.8 percent to 2.6 percent in May, as expected. The general price index also fell from 2.7 percent to 2.6 percent. Incomes rose by 0.5 percent, while Americans’ spending increased by 0.2 percent.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.68% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.84% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Money supply in the eurozone increased more sharply in May, according to figures from the European Central Bank. The broad money supply (M3) rose by 1.6 percent year-on-year in May, compared to 1.3 percent in April. Credit provision to households increased by 0.3 percent in May, up from 0.2 percent in April. Credit provision to non-financial companies also rose by 0.3 percent, after a 0.2 percent increase in April.

Producer confidence in the Dutch industry was less negative in June than in May, according to Statistics Netherlands. Confidence rose from -2.8 in May to -2.4 in June, with manufacturers more positive about expected activity and less negative about finished product inventories. Producer confidence has fluctuated significantly over the past few years, from a low of -31.5 in April 2020 to a high of 10.4 in October 2021, with an average of -1.3 over the past twenty years. In April, Dutch industrial production was 3.5 percent lower than a year earlier, marking the tenth consecutive month of declining production.

Pending home sales in the United States fell again in May, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The sales index dropped by 2.1 percent to 70.8, while economists had expected a decline of 0.4 percent. On a yearly basis, pending home sales in May decreased by 6.6 percent.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.67% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.80% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

In May, significantly less new single-family homes were sold in the United States compared to the previous month, when considerably more homes were sold than earlier estimated. This was revealed on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The number of sold new single-family homes dropped by 11.3 percent month-on-month to 619,000 units in May. On an annual basis, this represented a decline of 16.5 percent. A 0.9 percent increase to 640,000 sold new homes was initially expected. However, the April figure was sharply revised up from 634,000 to 698,000.

Consumer confidence in Germany unexpectedly declined slightly. This was revealed on Wednesday by measurements from research institute GfK, which measures one month ahead. The confidence index came out at -21.8 versus -21.0 for June, adjusted from an earlier forecast of -20.9. Economists had anticipated an index improvement to -19.5 for July.

Crude oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly increased last week, along with gasoline inventories. This was revealed on Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). For the week ending June 21, crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels to 460.7 million barrels. A decrease of 2.3 million barrels had been expected. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 233.9 million barrels. A decrease of 1.2 million barrels had been expected. Distillate fuel oil and diesel inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels to 121.3 million barrels, where a decrease of 0.3 million barrels had been anticipated. Refinery capacity utilization dropped from 93.5 to 92.2 percent, no change was expected.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.67% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.80% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday after recent increases, with the market awaiting this week’s U.S. crude inventory report ahead of the busy July 4th holiday weekend; West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1 percent lower at $80.83 per barrel. Analysts predict a significant drop in U.S. crude inventories, supporting optimistic sentiment driven by recovering oil demand and steady crude production, amid heightened geopolitical tensions from drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and rising tensions in the Middle East.

U.S. consumer confidence dipped slightly in June to 100.4 from 101.3 in May, remaining just above the 100-point threshold, according to The Conference Board. While the index for current economic conditions increased slightly, expectations for the next six months fell to 73.0 in June, from 74.9 in May, signalling potential recession concerns as any expectation below 80 points to a recession within a year.

U.S. home prices experienced a slight deceleration in their annual growth rate in April, with the 10 largest cities seeing an increase of 8.0%, down from 8.3% in March, according to the S&P Case-Shiller index. Similarly, the 20 largest metropolitan areas recorded a 7.2% year-over-year increase, slightly lower than the 7.5% growth seen the previous month.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 3.66% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.76% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Oil prices rose on Monday due to increasing geopolitical tensions and expected higher fuel demand in the summer. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate increased 0.7 percent to $82.17 on Monday. The price for a barrel of Brent rose by 0.9 percent to $86.01. “Traders and investors cannot ignore the possibility of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon,” energy expert Anas Alhajji told MarketWatch. Additionally, global power outages may worsen in August, potentially leading to a sudden increase in power generation and demand for petroleum products.

Inflation in Mexico rose more than expected in early June, likely leading to a second consecutive pause by Banco de Mexico at Thursday’s rate meeting. Consumer prices increased 4.78% in the first half of the month, surpassing the 4.73% median estimate and the previous 4.59% rise. Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, rose to 4.17% from 4.11%, slightly below the 4.18% estimate. The central bank targets 3% inflation, plus or minus one percentage point. Analysts expect inflation to reach 4.27% by the end of 2024 and 3.8% by the end of 2025.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy is heading for a soft landing, expecting a slight rise in the unemployment rate to meet the inflation target. He mentioned that the current unemployment rate of 6.2% is just above pre-pandemic levels, nearing maximum sustainable employment. In June, the Bank of Canada was the first G7 central bank to cut interest rates, reducing its policy rate to 4.75%. The next rate decision is on July 24.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.69% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.76% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.