Microsoft experienced a major outage on Friday, preventing users worldwide from accessing cloud computing platforms, leading to flight cancellations by airlines such as KLM, Ryanair, Lufthansa, and Turkish Airlines. Microsoft is investigating the issue, potentially linked to a new CrowdStrike cybersecurity update causing startup problems, while airports like Schiphol and Gatwick reported significant impacts. The outage also affected the London Stock Exchange, and shares of Ryanair, Air France-KLM, and CrowdStrike have declined.
Today, Donald Trump reiterated during his speech that he will cut taxes and tackle inflation if elected President of the United States in November. He promised lower energy costs through increased drilling, which he said would also reduce transportation and production costs. Tump also emphasized his plans for major tax cuts for workers and bringing jobs to the auto sector. Trump’s chances of winning the presidency have increased, partly due to growing doubts about Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris seen as a likely successor.
Consumer prices in Japan rose by 2.8 percent year-on-year in June, the same as in May. Excluding prices for fresh food, inflation was 2.6 percent, slightly higher than expected, while core inflation excluding food and energy was 2.2 percent. With inflation staying above 2 percent for two years, the market expects the Bank of Japan might opt for a rate hike at the end of July.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.62% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Japanese exports rose for the seventh consecutive month in June but less than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4 percent. Imports also increased by 3.2 percent, resulting in a trade surplus of 224 billion yen after deficits in April and May. Exports to China and Asia as a whole, increased by 7.2 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively, while exports to the United States rose by 11.0 percent, mainly consisting of cars and car parts. However, exports to Europe decreased by 13.4 percent.
Economists are more optimistic about the expected economic growth in Sweden this year, with a projected growth of 0.7 percent. The Riksbank is expected to cut interest rates by one percentage point before the end of March next year, which could stimulate consumer spending. This move comes amid steadily declining inflation and could end the economic stagnation that persisted throughout 2023. The Riksbank will meet twice in the third quarter of 2024 to decide on interest rate cuts.
Leading indicators for the U.S. economy continued to decline in June, as reported by The Conference Board on Thursday. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.2 percent to 101.1, following a 0.4 percent decline in May, and has been declining for over two years. In the first half of 2024, the LEI decreased by 1.9 percent, which is less than the 2.9 percent contraction in the second half of 2023. Despite a brief uptick in February, the downward trend persists.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.62% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Inflation in the Eurozone slightly cooled in June, while core inflation remained stable, according to final figures from Eurostat released on Wednesday. Consumer prices rose by 2.5 percent last month, compared to 2.6 percent in May and 2.4 percent in April. Economists consulted beforehand had also expected an inflation rate of 2.5 percent. Core inflation, a key metric for the ECB, stood at 2.9 percent in June, the same level as in May and up from 2.7 percent in April. On a monthly basis, consumer prices in the Eurozone increased by 0.2 percent in June, while core prices rose by 0.4 percent.
Industrial production in the United States grew less in June than the previous month, according to an announcement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon. In June, production increased by 0.6 percent, following a 0.9 percent increase in May. However, the slowdown in growth was less than expected, as economists had predicted a 0.3 percent rise. Capacity utilization rose to 78.8 percent in June from 78.3 percent in May, against an expectation of 78.5 percent.
Producer prices in the United Kingdom increased less in June than a month earlier, according to figures from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) released on Wednesday. On a yearly basis, prices rose by 1.4 percent following a 1.7 percent increase the previous month. Economists had expected a rise of 1.8 percent. On a monthly basis, the price level fell by 0.3 percent last month. A 0.1 percent increase had been expected. The previous month, prices remained stable on a monthly basis.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.63% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.69% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. import prices were unchanged in June as lower energy costs offset a rebound in food prices, supporting the view that inflation is decreasing which may allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Over the past 12 months, import prices rose by 1.6%, while export prices fell by 0.5% in June.
The IMF predicts modest global growth over the next two years, with slowing disinflation momentum potentially delaying interest rate cuts and maintaining strong dollar pressure on developing economies. The IMF kept its 2024 global growth forecast at 3.2%, noting risks from weak U.S. consumption, China’s property sector issues, and potential policy shifts from upcoming elections.
Euro zone households are increasingly applying for loans for the first time in two years, driven by optimism about the economy and falling interest rates, according to an ECB survey. The survey also noted that banks eased mortgage conditions due to stronger competition, while tightening access to consumer credit and corporate loans.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.64% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.69% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Investors increasingly anticipate Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. President. Market analysts hold this view after the assassination attempt on the Republican presidential contender at a campaign event this weekend. Commentaries suggest Trump’s chances in the November elections have improved. Known for his support of looser fiscal policies and higher import tariffs, Trump’s policies are expected to benefit the dollar and raise U.S. government bond yields. Markets had already been boosting the dollar in anticipation of Trump’s re-election and investors are preparing for a steeper U.S. interest rate curve.
The number of U.S. companies filing for bankruptcy in June exceeded early pandemic levels. An S&P Global Market Intelligence report noted 75 filings in June, up from 62 in May and higher than the 74 peak in July 2020. The year-to-date total of 356 is the highest in 13 years. Contributing factors include high interest rates, supply chain issues, and declining consumer spending. Citi highlighted the “Sahm Rule” recession indicator, which might trigger in August if unemployment rises. Claudia Sahm, its creator and former Federal Reserve economist, warned that delaying rate cuts could push the economy into a recession.
China’s new home prices fell in June at the fastest rate in nine years, while property sales and investments are also dropping, increasing pressure on policymakers for further stimulus. Prices dropped 4.5% from a year earlier, the lowest since June 2015 and exceeding May’s 3.9% decline, according to NBS data. Since 2021, the steep downturn in the property market has caused numerous developer defaults and left many construction sites idle, eroding confidence in a sector traditionally seen as a safe haven by Chinese households.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.66% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.74% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In June, producer prices in the United States increased by 0.2 percent month-on-month, slightly more than the expected 0.1 percent. On an annual basis, there was an increase of 2.6 percent, compared to 2.4 percent in May. Excluding trade, food, and energy, producer prices remained unchanged in June, after a 0.2 percent rise in May.
Chinese exports rose by 8.6 percent year-on-year in June, more than economists had expected. However, imports fell by 2.3 percent, while an increase was anticipated. As a result, China’s trade surplus amounted to 99.05 billion dollars.
The euro rose to 1.09 dollars on Friday, partly caused by confidence in interest rate cuts by the Fed in September and December, following the recent U.S. inflation figures. Analysts estimate the market’s probability of a rate cut in September at 98 percent shortly after the inflation data release. Key points of interest include U.S. producer prices and growth of the Chinese economy, while the potential return of Donald Trump as president could be inflationary due to immigration restrictions and import tariffs.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.68% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The export of goods from the UK decreased by 2.5 percent in May, while imports fell by 4.7 percent, according to the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS). The trade deficit in goods and services for the three months up to and including May increased by 1.6 billion pounds to 9.2 billion pounds. The goods trade deficit rose by 3.3 billion pounds to 48.2 billion pounds. These developments were reported by ONS on Thursday.
Machine orders in Japan increased by 7.2 percent month-on-month in May after a 3.6 percent decline in April, according to government figures. In the private sector, orders excluding volatile ones fell by 3.2 percent, compared to a 2.9 percent decrease the previous month. These orders are a highly volatile parameter. The data was released on Thursday.
The number of new unemployment benefit claims in the United States fell much more than expected in the week ending July 6, according to figures from the U.S. Department of Labor released on Thursday. New claims totaled 222,000, a decrease of 17,000, versus 236,000 expected. The figure for the previous week was slightly revised up from 238,000 to 239,000. The number of continuing claims for the week ending June 29 was 1,852,000, a decrease of 4,000.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.68% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Dutch industry once again produced less in May, but the decline has slowed compared to April. This was revealed on Wednesday by Statistics Netherlands. Production, adjusted for calendar effects, decreased by 3.0 percent on a yearly basis. This marks the eleventh consecutive month of declining production. In April, production fell by 3.4 percent on a yearly basis.
Crude oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly dropped sharply last week after already having declined significantly the week before. This was revealed on Wednesday from data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In the week ending on July 5, crude oil inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 445.1 million barrels. Analysts had expected a decline of 1.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2 million barrels to 229.7 million barrels, versus an expected decline of 1.4 million barrels. However, inventories of heating oil and diesel increased by 4.9 million barrels to 124.6 million barrels, whereas a rise of 0.2 million barrels had been anticipated. The refinery capacity utilization increased from 93.5 to 95.4 percent.
Producer prices in China also declined again in June. This was revealed on Wednesday from data from the Chinese Bureau for Statistics. On a yearly basis, prices fell by 0.8 percent last month after a decrease of 1.4 percent in May. Economists had expected a decline of 0.7 percent for June. Producer prices in China have now been under pressure for 21 consecutive months. On a monthly basis, the price level fell by 0.2 percent in June after a rise of 0.2 percent in May.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.67% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.78% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Britain’s new government has established a National Wealth Fund to boost public and private investment, aiming to attract billions of pounds to invest in growing industries to modernize the economy and to meet net zero targets. An additional £7.3 billion will be allocated through the UK Infrastructure Bank to start immediate investments, with hopes of drawing in three times as much from private capital for sectors like ports, hydrogen, and automotives.
Confidence among small American businesses rose from 90.5 to 91.5 in June, according to figures from the National Federation of Independent Business. Despite this improvement, the index has remained below the fifty-year average for 30 months. Small business owners remain pessimistic about the economy for the rest of the year due to higher compensation costs and persistent inflation.
Taiwan’s exports surged 23.5% in June, exceeding forecasts and caused by strong demand from the AI industry and a significant rise in shipments to the U.S., which increased by 74.2%. This marks the eighth consecutive monthly increase in exports, with the finance ministry predicting continued momentum into the second half of the year, driven by advanced chip production and new technology applications.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.68% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.82% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Good morning,
Markets respond moderately positive to the French election results. After initial selling, investors reconsidered their actions. The spread between French and German ten-year bonds initially grew to 71 basis points. The CAC 40 is nearly back to its June 10 level, the day after Macron announced elections.
Record heat and hurricanes threaten U.S. refiners, potentially causing volatile fuel prices during peak travel season, analysts said. Half of the refining capacity of the U.S. is located along the Gulf Coast and vulnerable to storms. The US government expects up to seven major hurricanes this year, double the normal amount. A major storm could cut fuel supply by a million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Furthermore, they state that outages of around 1.5 million bpd of crude production and refining capacity can cause gasoline prices to jump by 25 cents to 30 cents.
Prices for biofuels have dropped significantly in recent months. Between April 2023 and April 2024, the price for a thousand kilos of bio-kerosene, or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), fluctuated between $1800 and $2200. However, at the end of spring, the price fell to just over $800 per ton. The market is fragmented. As a result, the price, quality, and quantity of the so-called feedstock – the material from which the fuel is made – are significantly less predictable than those of coal or natural gas. “Natural gas can now be purchased for delivery five or ten years from now,” says Van Eijck. “That’s not possible with waste oils like used cooking oil.”
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.68% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.79% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
