European stock markets closed lower on Tuesday, mainly due to losses in the oil sector following falling oil prices and a profit warning from ASML in the semiconductor sector. The broad STOXX Europe 600 index ended 0.8 percent lower at 520.57 points, with a sharp drop in the afternoon after ASML’s figures were leaked. In Frankfurt, the DAX fell modestly by 0.1 percent to 19,486.19 points, while the CAC 40 in Paris lost 1.1 percent to 7,521.97 points. The London FTSE 100 closed 0.5 percent lower at 8,249.28 points.
The Dutch government is once again reducing its stake in ABN Amro, cutting its shareholding via NL Financial Investments (NLFI) from 40.5% to 30%. This is the third time the stake has been reduced, after it was already lowered in two steps from 56.3% last year. This move raises questions about the future of ABN Amro, particularly as the bank is seeking a new CEO and the European banking sector may be on the verge of a consolidation wave.
United Airlines has announced plans to buy back $1.5 billion worth of its own shares, equivalent to around 7 percent of its market capitalization. The American airline company made the announcement on Tuesday. Share buybacks had been suspended since 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, which had severely disrupted air travel at the time.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.42% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. Treasury’s economic diplomat Jay Shambaugh urged the IMF and multilateral development banks to develop new short-term liquidity support mechanisms for low- and middle-income countries facing debt crises. He emphasized the need for a coordinated financing package that includes bilateral, multilateral, and private sector contributions, while criticizing China’s manufacturing subsidies, which he believes could harm global development paths for other countries. Shambaugh highlighted the importance of innovative solutions in international finance to ensure sustainable development.
Ecopetrol SA is utilizing a loan from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation to pay down part of a $1 billion loan due in 2030 after postponing a $1.75 billion bond sale intended for a debt buyback. The decision to delay the bond issuance follows a probe by Colombia’s electoral council into campaign finance violations linked to President Gustavo Petro and Ecopetrol’s CEO. Despite the political scrutiny, analysts believe Ecopetrol remains a strong credit and may return to the market with more favorable terms.
Toronto-Dominion Bank’s shares fell nearly 10% over two days after being fined $3.1 billion for money laundering in its U.S. branches, leading to a cap on its U.S. retail banking assets. Analysts warn that the regulatory restrictions could limit the bank’s earnings, similar to Wells Fargo’s struggles since 2018. The stock reached its lowest level since August, marking its biggest two-day decline since the COVID-19 crash in March 2020.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.47% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The minutes from the most recent interest rate decision by the European Central Bank reveal that the ECB is increasingly concerned about disappointing economic growth in the eurozone. At the same time, the ECB remains cautious about declaring victory in the fight against inflation.
Consumer prices in the United States proved to be more persistent than expected in September. This was revealed on Thursday by data from the U.S. Department of Labor. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.2 percent, the same as the previous month. However, a price increase of 0.1 percent was expected. Core inflation remained steady at 0.3 percent, while a rise of 0.2 percent had been predicted.
Dutch exports declined in August, according to figures published by Statistics Netherlands on Friday. The export volume fell by 2.1 percent year-on-year, whereas exports in July had grown by more than 2.0 percent. The increase in July was a temporary rebound after months of declines.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.48% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Volatility in the US Treasury market has surged as investors adjust expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts after strong jobs data. The 10-year yield jumped, and investors anticipate two quarter-point cuts by year-end, with upcoming inflation data potentially influencing market dynamics.
Germany is bracing for its first two-year recession since the early 2000s, with the government forecasting a 0.2% contraction in 2024 following a 0.3% shrinkage this year. Factors such as high interest rates, inflation, geopolitical uncertainties, and political instability are impacting consumer demand and business investments. Despite this downturn, the government expects a recovery starting in 2025, driven by a revival in private consumption, international demand, and increased investment activity.
S&P Dow Jones revised its Select Sector indices methodology, affecting $300bn in ETFs, to manage tech stock volatility caused by giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The update lowers the weight cap for large companies to enhance diversification and comply with regulations. Despite this change, performance will still rely heavily on major tech stocks.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.49% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Germany has selected Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and UBS to lead a potential sell-off of Uniper SE, its largest power company, which could be one of the biggest share sales in recent years. The state currently owns over 99% of Uniper after a bailout, and any sale might come with a significant discount due to low liquidity. The European Commission mandates that Germany reduces its stake in Uniper to no more than 25% by the end of 2028.
Analysts at Bank of America predict negative earnings growth for the Stoxx Europe 600 in the third quarter, with earnings per share expected to decline by 1% due to a 2% revenue contraction, despite some margin improvements. Estimates have been sharply revised downward since June, indicating that companies have less than a 50% chance of beating EPS expectations. While the financial sector may contribute positively, non-essential consumer products and energy are anticipated to be the largest drags on earnings.
Argentina’s Economy Minister, Luis Caputo, stated that the government aims to sell bonds abroad by January 2026, but analysts from firms like Pimco and Barings believe significant hurdles must be cleared first, including an IMF deal, reduced inflation, and a balanced budget. Current high interest rates, near 20%, make a bond sale unlikely, as investors demand substantial yields over U.S. Treasuries to hold Argentine bonds. Key steps for President Javier Milei include securing a sizable IMF loan and building foreign reserves, essential for potentially lifting capital controls.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.48% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Brent crude rose to $80 a barrel, the highest since August, due to Middle East tensions and speculation about an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure. The global benchmark’s 3% increase on Monday continues last week’s surge. President Biden expressed uncertainty about an Israeli response, suggesting alternatives to targeting oil fields. West Texas Intermediate crude also rose over 3% to near $77 a barrel.
Key US Treasury yields returned to 4% after strong jobs data reduced expectations of a major Federal Reserve rate cut. Bonds fell Monday, extending declines from last week. The 10-year yield increased to 4.03%, and the two-year yield rose to 4.02%, causing a brief yield curve inversion.
Gold remained stable as traders reduced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts following strong US jobs data. It traded near $2,660 an ounce, just below a recent peak. This year, gold has risen 29% due to rate-cut optimism and strong central bank purchases, as well as haven demand amid conflicts.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.49% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
French industrial production increased significantly in August, as reported by the French statistics bureau Insee. Production rose by 1.4% on a monthly basis, primarily driven by the manufacturing of pharmaceutical products. This increase followed a 0.2% rise in July. The manufacturing sector showed 1.6% production growth in August after a slight 0.2% decline in July.
In the United States, employment growth in September was much stronger than expected, according to the official U.S. jobs report released on last Friday. Substantial job growth of 254,000 last month was reported, exceeding market expectations of 150,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the anticipated 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose by $0.13, or 0.4%, to $35.36, with an annual wage growth rate of 4.0%, up from 3.8% the previous month. Economists had expected a 3.7% increase.
The AEX briefly surged to nearly 915 points last Friday following an exceptionally strong U.S. jobs report, but ultimately closed at 911.81 points, leaving a modest gain of 0.2%.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.43% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Despite the escalating conflict in the Middle East, MSCI’s world stock index remains just 1% below last week’s record highs, and oil prices, which surged 5% after Iran’s missile attack on Israel, have stabilized around $75 per barrel. Markets are currently cushioned by prospects of monetary easing and the U.S.’s expanded role in oil production, reducing reliance on Middle Eastern supplies. Wall Street’s VIX volatility index remains moderate at around 20, far below its peak of over 60 seen during market turmoil in August.
Ghana has achieved significant support from over 90% of its international bondholders to restructure $13 billion in eurobonds, facilitating the issuance of new bonds to replace existing ones. This follows Ghana’s unilateral halt of payments on most external debt in 2022 and a $3 billion bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund in May 2023, aimed at restoring fiscal sustainability. President Nana Akufo-Addo described the restructuring as a landmark achievement that will enhance economic recovery and improve Ghana’s standing with investors.
Blackstone Inc. has begun raising its third Asia-focused private equity fund, targeting at least $10 billion, with a primary focus on India. Japan and Australia will also be significant markets, while China is not a focus due to economic challenges and regulatory issues. The fund’s strategy may shift based on macroeconomic conditions, and Blackstone remains optimistic about India’s growth and plans expansion in Southeast Asia.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.37% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices surged as an Iranian missile attack on Israel heightened fears of a broader Middle Eastern conflict, potentially disrupting global energy supplies. Brent crude increased by 2.6% to $75.47 per barrel, while the US benchmark rose by 2.8%, amid concerns about the stability of a region critical to global oil production. Analysts highlighted the risks to energy infrastructure and transit routes, with the potential for further escalation if conflict spreads, impacting the already strained capacity due to Opec+ production cuts.
The UK labour market is cooling, leading to a decrease in private sector wage growth, which reassures the Bank of England about easing price pressures. The median pay in the private sector fell to a two-year low, while public sector pay growth contributed to stable overall wage growth. With labour shortages dissipating and competition for jobs returning to normal, there is potential for private sector pay to normalize, though some economists expect it to remain above long-term averages.
China’s outbound investment has reached record levels, driven by its booming clean energy technology sector looking to expand internationally amid US and EU tariffs. In the first eight months of 2024, Chinese investments abroad rose by 12.5%, with a significant focus on renewable energy and transport electrification projects. However, this surge in investment has raised concerns in the US and EU over China’s dominance in the global clean energy supply chain, potentially leading to higher tariffs and trade tensions.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.33% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In September, inflation in the Netherlands remained high at 3.5%, mainly due to price increases in food, beverages, and tobacco, with tobacco being the largest contributor. The Netherlands has the second highest inflation in the Eurozone, after Belgium. Average inflation in the Eurozone dropped from 2.2% to 1.8%. The European Central Bank expects inflation in the Eurozone to decrease further in the coming year.
European stock markets closed mostly lower on Tuesday, following disappointing economic data from the US and concerns about a potential escalation of violence in the Middle East. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell by 0.4% to 520.88 points, while Germany’s DAX lost 0.6% to finish at 19,213.14 points. The French CAC 40 dropped by 0.8% to 7,574.07 points. Only the UK’s FTSE 100 index in London closed positively, rising by 0.5% to 8,276.65 points.
Consumer confidence in Japan increased slightly in September, according to government figures released on Wednesday. The index rose from 36.7 to 36.9. All sub-indices showed an increase, except for the one related to general livelihood.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 4 basis points to 3.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 2.27% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
