Global bond yields are climbing to multi-year highs, with Germany’s 10-year yield at its highest since 2011, UK gilts at a post-2008 peak and US Treasuries touching levels last seen in late 2023, driven by heavy government debt issuance, oil-driven inflation concerns and expectations of prolonged monetary tightening. Governments face the most immediate pressure, with France singled out among developed markets for its combination of large deficits, elevated debt and political gridlock, while Japan’s debt service costs are estimated to exceed 25% of government expenditure in 2026. Leveraged companies, commercial real estate and lower-income consumers are among the most exposed, as Deutsche Bank estimates 10-year Treasury yields could reach 5.5% over the next year.
Sugar prices surged 21.5% in August, their strongest monthly gain since 2010, outpacing the S&P 500 with a year-to-date gain of around 20% as supply concerns mount across major producing regions. A summer heatwave has cut EU sugar beet production by an estimated 19%, while El Niño threatens harvests in Brazil, India and Thailand, which together account for roughly 70% of global exports. With oil above 90 dollars a barrel incentivising Brazilian mills to divert cane into ethanol and India entering the market as a buyer for the first time since 2018, Citi projects a global supply deficit of 1.3 million metric tons and has named sugar its highest-conviction bullish agricultural trade.
Land purchases for US data centres reached around 6 billion dollars in the first half of 2026, a 79% increase on last year, as the AI buildout transforms rural property markets and drives commercial land values to as high as 4.4 million dollars per acre in some Virginia locations. The surge is fuelling a growing backlash, with up to nine states considering moratoriums on new data centre development and communities raising concerns over rising electricity costs, water use and the loss of farmland. Investment banks including Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo are flagging political resistance as a material risk to future growth, with data centre politics identified as a key factor heading into November’s midterm elections.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.79% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 3.36% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European diesel markets are experiencing unprecedented tightness, with the diesel premium over crude oil rising above $100 per barrel for the first time on record. Supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions and Russia’s extension of its diesel export ban have removed an estimated 1.3 to 1.4 million barrels per day from global markets, increasing cost pressures on transport, agriculture and industry. The situation highlights growing risks that energy-related inflation could remain elevated despite efforts to stabilize crude oil prices.
The Japanese yen strengthened by more than 2% to around ¥155 per US dollar as investors increased bets on further Bank of Japan rate hikes and speculated about potential currency intervention. Markets are now pricing a roughly 25% probability of consecutive rate increases in September and October, while Japan’s 10-year government bond yield recently reached 3%, its highest level since 1996. The shift signals a potential turning point in Japan’s monetary policy and could influence global capital flows and bond mark
US financial markets rallied after comments from a Federal Reserve official reduced expectations of a near-term interest rate increase, lowering the perceived probability of a September hike from 63% to about 50%. Major equity indices gained more than 1%, while Treasury yields retreated from recent highs as investors responded positively to signs that inflation pressures may be easing. Attention is now focused on labour market data, with economists expecting the US economy to have added around 56,000 jobs while unemployment remains at 4.1%.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.77% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.38% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Swiss government has appointed Christoph Ammann as the new president of the Swiss National Bank’s Bank Council, the body responsible for overseeing and controlling the central bank’s business conduct. The appointment will take effect on 1 May 2027, when the current president steps down after reaching the maximum term in office. Ammann has served on the Bank Council since 2019. The Bank Council supervises compliance with legislation, regulations and directives, but does not determine monetary policy.
The US national debt has exceeded $40 trillion during the first 19 months of President Trump’s second term, despite campaign promises of fiscal restraint. Rising spending, higher borrowing costs and a costly conflict with Iran have added pressure to public finances. According to congressional and budget experts cited in the article, recent tax and immigration legislation added $4.7 trillion to projected debt. Economists warn that growing deficits may eventually require tax increases, spending cuts, or reforms to entitlement programmes.
China is expected to maintain refined fuel exports at just over 4 million metric tons in September, broadly unchanged from August, as authorities continue easing export restrictions introduced earlier this year. Strong international margins, particularly for diesel and jet fuel, are encouraging refiners to export despite previous measures aimed at safeguarding domestic supplies. Higher Chinese exports could increase fuel availability across Asia and help limit regional price gains, while additional export quotas are anticipated in the coming months.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.78% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.41% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August from 2.9% a month earlier, driven largely by higher energy prices, while core inflation eased slightly to 2.4%. Combined with stable unemployment at 6.4%, above expectations for a decline to 6.3%, the data reinforces concerns that inflationary pressures remain persistent. Rising bond yields continued to dominate market sentiment as investors reassessed the outlook for ECB policy.
Fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian military infrastructure and Tehran’s retaliation against Jordan have heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged, with Brent rising 4.5% to $94.52 a barrel and WTI gaining 5% to $90.03, their highest levels since late July. Markets are increasingly focused on the risk of further disruption to regional energy supplies and shipping routes.
Australia’s economy grew 2.1% year on year in the second quarter, beating forecasts of 1.8%, while quarterly growth of 0.4% was supported by consumer demand and mining exports. The stronger than expected GDP data, together with July inflation of 3.5%, strengthens the case for further Reserve Bank of Australia policy tightening. Household spending remained subdued as elevated fuel prices weighed on consumption and travel activity.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.77% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 3.40% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Global agricultural commodity prices rose over 13% in August, the sharpest monthly increase in fourteen years, driven by the war around the Black Sea, heatwaves and El Nino. Wheat reached its highest level in more than three years, trading at $7.84 per bushel, up 18% from July and 50% since the start of the year. Corn rose nearly 16%, while cotton gained 14.5% in August and 44% year to date. Developing countries face growing concerns over food price inflation.
India’s economy grew 7.8% in the quarter ending June, beating a Reuters poll estimate of 7.1% and matching the previous quarter. Growth was driven by financial, real estate, information technology and professional services sectors, while agriculture remained weak. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had forecast 7.0% growth for the quarter and 6.7% for the financial year ending March 2027. Inflation rose to 4.45% in July, though the RBI held interest rates steady in August.
At the G20 finance meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged member countries to prioritize economic growth to address global debt, which reached nearly $353 trillion this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh described a global investment surge reversing the savings glut. Bessent also pushed for isolating Iran over the Strait of Hormuz standoff and pressing China to rebalance its economy away from its $1.2 trillion trade surplus.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.76% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 3.35% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh addresses the Jackson Hole symposium today, with markets watching for signals on inflation and interest rates. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index held at 3.7% in July, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Colleagues including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack say current policy, at 3.50%-3.75%, is not restrictive enough, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins called recent data mixed. Warsh has avoided detailed guidance so far.
Poland’s government will unveil its 2027 draft budget on Friday, balancing election-year tax relief with concerns over the European Union’s widest fiscal deficit. Prime Minister Donald Tusk wants the deficit to stay below 7% of GDP, versus 7.3% in 2025 and 6.8% forecast for 2026, though analysts expect 6.5%. Benchmark 10-year bond yields have risen to near 6%. Moody’s Ratings reviews Poland’s credit score in September, with economists warning that insufficient deficit reduction would raise downgrade risk for the $1 trillion economy.
Asian stock markets mostly rose on Friday, with Seoul the exception. Investors welcomed Nvidia’s results but turned cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell over 1%, dragged down by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, both down up to 3%. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose over 0.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained nearly 0.5%, tracking Wall Street gains after Nvidia jumped almost 9%.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.77% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.29% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy warns that Europe’s response to Chinese competition is too slow and narrowly targeted, while subsidies and an undervalued yuan continue to strengthen export competitiveness. Germany has already lost 400,000 industrial jobs since 2019 as competitive pressures intensify. The think tank advocates broader import tariffs to safeguard industry, innovation and economic sovereignty, despite higher costs for businesses and consumers.
Europe is heading into winter with gas storage of around 63%, roughly 18 percentage points below the five year average, as LNG supply disruptions and stronger demand tighten the market. Analysts warn that Dutch TTF gas prices, already above €68 per MWh, could rise to €90 to €120 per MWh and may need to exceed €100 per MWh to attract sufficient LNG cargo. The risk of higher energy costs, industrial pressure and a renewed European energy squeeze is therefore increasing.
The AI investment boom remains intact after Nvidia more than doubled quarterly revenue to $96.2bn and forecast roughly 70% revenue growth for the coming fiscal year, well above market expectations of 45%. Strong guidance lifted semiconductor stocks and technology markets globally. Supply chain constraints continue to be the main obstacle to even faster expansion.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.76% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 3.28% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices lower as the US shifted towards economic pressure rather than military action. Brent crude fell 2.6% to USD 86.26 a barrel, while WTI declined 2.6% to USD 80.25. Progress in talks over the Strait of Hormuz reduced concerns about disruptions to global oil supply.
Doubts are growing over Indonesia’s ambition to achieve 6% economic growth in 2027 while keeping its fiscal deficit at 2.4% of GDP. Economists cite weak consumer spending, rising debt and external headwinds, with the economy having expanded at around 5% on average over the past decade. Stronger investment and structural reforms are viewed as essential to make faster growth attainable.
The dollar held steady ahead of fresh US inflation data but remains on track for a 1% decline in August. Efforts to ease pressure on long term bond yields have shifted investor focus to concerns over rising public debt and monetary credibility, weighing on the currency. Demand for alternative stores of value has strengthened, with gold near USD 4,646 an ounce and bitcoin above USD 78,700.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.77% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 3.23% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The US Treasury may tap its nearly $1 trillion General Account, known as the TGA, to fund expanded bond buybacks, senior officials say. Last week the Treasury doubled long-term buyback minimums from $2 billion to $4 billion, dubbed a “Treasury Twist” by Secretary Scott Bessent. Bond yields rose afterward on doubts about the plan’s funding and scale. Using the TGA, currently far above the prior $550-600 billion target, could reassure markets without requiring more short-term bill sales.
Singapore’s inflation rose to 2.2% year-on-year in July, a near two-year high, missing the 2.3% forecast, as the Iran war pushed up energy and electricity prices. Core inflation reached 2%, below the 2.2% expected. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) had surprised markets by tightening monetary policy in July, warning of rising imported inflation. Singapore rolled out two support packages worth about SGD 2 billion. The city-state also upgraded its 2026 GDP forecast to 4.5%-5.5%, more than double its earlier low-end estimate.
Brazil’s central bank chief Gabriel Galípolo warned that rising household debt is a natural consequence of expanded credit access, as President Lula’s government rolls out stimulus ahead of October’s election. He flagged credit cards as a particular concern, with some revolving credit rates around 15% a month. The central bank recently cut its benchmark Selic rate by a quarter-point to 14%, while warning that demand stimulus poses upside inflation risks against its 3% inflation target.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.77% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 3.27% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US-Canada trade talks collapsed on Friday, triggering 50% US tariffs on roughly 20 billion dollars of Canadian exports including dairy, steel and wine, with Ottawa announcing retaliatory measures of equal scale to take effect on 8 September. Both sides blamed each other for the breakdown, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stating that last-minute changes to US terms were “unfair and uneconomic,” while US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canada had declined to finalise a deal on agreed terms. The failure further strains a relationship already under pressure from unresolved USMCA negotiations, with no new talks currently planned.
Public opposition to AI data centres is emerging as a formal investment risk factor, with Morgan Stanley reporting that 156 billion dollars in US projects were delayed or cancelled last year and a further 130 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2026 alone. European resistance is also growing, with examples including Meta’s blocked data centre in Zeewolde and a temporary moratorium on new facilities in Amsterdam, prompting advisers to label community opposition a “structural factor” for investors to price in. The core challenge for the sector has shifted from financing to securing and maintaining a social licence to operate, a process that requires costly adaptations around energy, water use and community impact.
The US is set to unleash what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as “the greatest financial offensive ever marshalled” against Iran, with sweeping new sanctions targeting Iran’s trading partners due to be announced on Monday. Iran responded by threatening to halt all oil exports from the Gulf, with a senior official warning that “not a single drop of oil” would flow through the Strait of Hormuz if the economic pressure continues. The escalation comes six months into the conflict, with no direct talks between the two sides since June, as the near-closure of Hormuz continues to weigh heavily on global energy markets.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.74% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 3.28% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
