The number of new unemployment benefit claims in the United States (U.S.) slightly decreased last week to 219,000, a drop of 1,000 claims, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
The Turkish central bank lowered its interest rate from 50.00% to 47.50%. The bank stated that the underlying inflation trend was stable in November, with leading indicators for December showing a decline.
Most Asian stock markets closed higher on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei index gained 1.1% to 39,568 points, while Shanghai markets increase by 0.1%. The Hong Kong stock exchange was closed on Thursday.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.61% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.33% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The National Statistics Institute (INE) reported on Monday that Spain’s gross domestic product expanded by 0.8% in the third quarter, aligning with both analyst predictions and earlier estimates. Annually, the growth rate was adjusted slightly to 3.3%, down from an initial estimate of 3.4%.
On Monday, oil prices showed signs of stabilization after previous declines, with only minor fluctuations in West Texas Intermediate and Brent prices. This occurred at the start of a calm holiday trading week in the oil market, following last week’s market stress caused by the Federal Reserve’s announcement that interest rate cuts next year will be less frequent than previously anticipated. This policy shift has strengthened the dollar, while concerns about future oil demand persist.
In November, existing homes in the Netherlands were nearly 12% more expensive than a year earlier, marking the largest increase in almost two years, as reported by CBS and the Kadaster. This trend positions the Netherlands among the top European countries in house price growth, alongside Ireland and Poland. While property values in Belgium and France remain at levels from a decade ago, Dutch prices have increased by 50% since 2015 when adjusted for inflation.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.62% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.33% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Shortly after midnight on Saturday, the U.S. Senate approved a budget agreement that prevents a government shutdown. Earlier this week, Donald Trump and Elon Musk pressured Republicans to reject a previous version, but they have now backed the current deal. The agreement removes several controversial non-financial policy measures, including restrictions on Chinese investments, which Democrats claim benefit Musk’s interests.
The Amsterdam stock exchange experienced a significant decline last week, triggered by the Federal Reserve’s adjustment of interest rate expectations for 2025. Closing at 875.44 points on Friday, the AEX recorded a 2.0% loss compared to the previous week.
Colombia’s central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 9.5% on Friday, which is less than markets had anticipated. This smaller reduction reflects concerns about domestic fiscal uncertainties and global monetary decisions.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.30% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices steadied near $71 a barrel as U.S. equities recovered, but gains were capped by a strong dollar and concerns over China’s slowing gasoline demand. Crude inventories in the U.S. fell for a fourth week, while traders balanced geopolitical risks and potential supply shocks against oversupply fears. Oil markets are on track for their narrowest annual price range since 2019 amidst muted swings post-pandemic and global conflicts.
Canada’s new finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc, emphasized the need to preserve fiscal capacity to address potential economic shocks. LeBlanc replaced Chrystia Freeland after her abrupt resignation and plans to address deficits driven by tax relief and indigenous liabilities while preparing the 2025 budget. His approach draws inspiration from past finance ministers Paul Martin and Jean Chretien, balancing fiscal challenges with cautious optimism about economic recovery post-COVID.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that market speculation on a February rate cut is reasonable but cautioned against certainty due to economic uncertainties. The BOE held rates at 4.75%, with some committee members advocating for immediate cuts, reflecting a dovish stance despite rising wage growth and inflation concerns. Bailey noted the labor market is normalizing, suggesting inflationary pressures from wage growth may ease.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.65% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 2.32% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Major fossil fuel and industrial companies, including Shell and BP, are urging the EU to mandate consumer purchases of greener products to boost investment in clean technology. They claim high costs of lower-carbon goods are pushing these products out of the market, risking industrial decline without increased demand. The EU’s existing measures, like the carbon border tax, are deemed inadequate by these companies, who seek broader mandates to support export competitiveness.
UK inflation climbed to 2.6% in November, up from 2.3% in October, driven by higher motor fuel and clothing prices. The rise reinforces expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates steady at 4.75% during its upcoming meeting, despite economic challenges and increased wage growth. Core and services inflation remain high, posing significant concerns for the BoE as it navigates mounting inflation pressures and economic strain following recent tax policies.
Brazil’s currency, the real, is under pressure, falling to record lows despite the central bank’s interventions and rate increases. The currency’s decline signals market frustration with fiscal policy, demanding reform as public debt and government spending rise, with Lula’s government yet to deliver credible commitments to deficit reduction. In response, the central bank may implement extraordinary measures or further rate hikes to stabilize the currency, amid Brazil’s challenging economic environment.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.66% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.25% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In December, German businesses expressed increased pessimism regarding their economic prospects compared to the previous month, a decline that caught analysts off guard. The Ifo index, which gauges business confidence, fell to 84.7 points, indicating that the economic fragility in Germany is anticipated to persist. Sentiment among entrepreneurs in the manufacturing, trade, and services sectors deteriorated, while the construction sector experienced a modest improvement.
Yesterday, oil prices fell due to concerns about reduced demand from China and plans for increased oil production in the U.S. under Donald Trump’s new administration. A February contract for West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1% lower at $69.65 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. This decline follows a rise last week, spurred by recent measures to stimulate the economy in China.
Canada’s annual inflation rate dropped unexpectedly to 1.9% in November, influenced by a widespread deceleration in price increases, as reported yesterday. Reuters analysts had predicted that the inflation rate would persist at 2% from October, alongside a 0.1% monthly rise in the consumer price index. Despite these projections, the central bank’s favored core inflation metrics, CPI-median and CPI-trim, remained stable, though last month’s figures saw a slight upward revision.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.23% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
UK wages rose 5.2% in the three months to October, exceeding forecasts and reversing a slowdown since mid-2023. Private sector wages grew 5.4%, prompting the Bank of England to reconsider rate cuts. However, signs of a cooling labor market emerged, with job cuts and falling vacancies.
Italy’s economy stagnated in Q3, with 2024 growth forecast at just 0.5%, half the government’s target. Weakened business confidence, a manufacturing slump, and the end of construction incentives have worsened the outlook. Italy’s debt, already euro zone’s second highest, is forecast to rise, risking higher borrowing costs.
China saw a record $45.7B capital outflow in November as investor confidence waned. Weaker yuan, U.S. tariff threats, and Trump’s election win fueled the exodus. Despite Beijing’s stimulus plans, foreign investors continue to reduce holdings in Chinese bonds and stocks.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.64% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.24% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
German exports saw a significant drop in October, according to data from Destatis, the German statistics bureau. Exports fell by 2.8% month-on-month, while imports decreased slightly by 0.1%.
Industrial production in the UK unexpectedly declined in October, as reported by the UK’s official statistics bureau. Industrial output fell by 0.6% compared to the previous month, contrary to economists’ expectations of a 0.2% increase. This brought production to its lowest level since May 2020.
US import prices unexpectedly rose in November, based on data from the US Department of Labor. Import prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, following a similarly unexpected and revised 0.1% rise in October. Economists had forecast a 0.2% decline for November.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.66% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.27% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Swiss central bank lowered interest rates for the fourth consecutive time to ease the strong franc and support exporters. The rate was reduced by 50 basis points to 0.5 percent. Earlier reductions since March were 25-basis-point steps.
The number of bankruptcies in the Netherlands increased in November. According to Statistics Netherlands, 19 more companies were declared bankrupt compared to October, a 6 percent rise.
Dutch exports continued to grow in October but at a slower pace. Data reported by Statistics Netherlands show a volume increase of 1.7 percent year-on-year, down from a 2.7 percent rise in September.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.65% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 2.22% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In November, US inflation rose to 2.7%, aligning with Wall Street forecasts and paving the way for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, expected to be a quarter-point, next week. The increase was primarily driven by a 0.3% rise in the shelter index and indicates a 98% probability of a rate cut according to market pricing. Concerns remain about balancing inflation control with maintaining a healthy labor market, amid potential policy shifts with the incoming Trump administration.
Business leaders warned UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves about the significant impact of recent Budget tax rises, including a £25bn increase in employers’ national insurance contributions, on investment and recruitment. At a British Chambers of Commerce meeting, executives expressed concerns over the challenging economic environment, with only a minority expecting improvement within a year. Chancellor Reeves defended the tax increases as necessary for fiscal stability, while acknowledging that tough decisions were made to address a £22bn “black hole” in public finances and laying foundations for future growth.
The Biden administration will impose new tariffs on Chinese solar wafers and polysilicon, doubling to 50%, and a 25% levy on tungsten to protect US manufacturing. Effective January 1, these measures aim to bolster the US solar sector and reduce reliance on Chinese materials, amid ongoing US-China trade tensions. This move concludes Biden’s efforts to support US industries with subsidies and tariffs against China.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.66% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.15% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
