American consumer confidence in the economy decreased in January, while inflation expectations turned out to be higher. This was made clear on Friday from the final figures of the University of Michigan. The consumer confidence index dropped from 74.0 at the end of December to 71.1 this month. Mid-January, a preliminary figure indicated an index level of 73.2.
President Trump signed an executive order creating a working group on digital assets to propose regulations and consider a national cryptocurrency reserve, aligning with his campaign promise amidst personal financial interests in crypto. The group is tasked with evaluating current regulations and proposing new ones, with a report due to Trump in 180 days, potentially mainstreaming cryptocurrency in the U.S. This order also rolls back a Biden-era initiative on central bank digital currencies, reflecting Trump’s stance against government-controlled digital assets.
Oil prices are experiencing their first weekly decline this year following President Trump’s threats of trade wars and demands for OPEC+ to reduce crude prices. Amidst tensions over Russian sanctions and discussions with President Putin regarding Ukraine, Trump’s administration is focused on reducing oil prices to benefit consumers, while encouraging domestic production under a declared national energy emergency. Futures are down over 4% for the week, reflecting market reactions to Trump’s actions and statements on trade and energy policy.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.59% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.51% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer confidence in the Netherlands became more negative for the fourth consecutive month in January, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS). The consumer confidence index dropped from -26 in December to -28 in January.
Business confidence in France showed a slight improvement in January, as reported by the statistics bureau Insee. The confidence index rose from 94 in December to 95 in January, reversing a previous downward trend that saw the index drop from 98 in September to 96 in November.
The Turkish central bank announced on Thursday afternoon that it has reduced its policy rate from 47.5% to 45.0%.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.59% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.49% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Donald Trump, after returning to the White House, signed executive orders that halted over $300 billion in green infrastructure funding, disrupting clean energy initiatives and affecting loans managed by the Department of Energy. His actions target Biden’s climate policies and suggest a shift towards boosting fossil fuel production while questioning subsidies for electric vehicles and renewable energy. This move has caused concern among investors and has already led companies to reconsider or halt renewable energy projects in the U.S.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index hit a record high as investor concerns about US tariffs eased, bolstered by strong corporate earnings and attractive valuations of European stocks. Gains were driven by some of Europe’s largest companies, reflecting a broader market optimism. A survey indicated a notable shift in investor focus from US to European equities due to concerns over high valuations in the US.
Chinese stocks and the renminbi fell following President Trump’s announcement of a potential 10% tariff on China, which he cited as a response to fentanyl flow concerns. The CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indices dropped, with the offshore renminbi weakening before showing some recovery. The US dollar strengthened amid the tariff threat, while markets in other parts of Asia, like South Korea and Japan, saw gains.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.61% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.48% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Canadian inflation stayed within the central bank’s target range for a full year, the first instance since 2019, with a year-over-year increase of 1.8% in December. However, the potential for a trade war with the US poses significant economic risks, potentially impacting the Bank of Canada’s approach to interest rate adjustments. Despite controlled inflation, uncertainty over tariffs may lead the central bank to reconsider its monetary policy.
US government bond yields neared their lowest levels of the year as President Donald Trump delayed tariffs, reducing inflation concerns and prompting a relief rally in Treasuries. Despite tariff threats against Mexico and Canada, markets avoided immediate shocks, with the 10-year note yield falling to around 4.57%. Investors now anticipate Treasury yield declines and possible Federal Reserve rate cuts, reassured by the absence of imminent tariffs on China.
Commerzbank AG is considering smaller strategic acquisitions to enhance shareholder value, while avoiding hasty decisions amidst a potential takeover threat from UniCredit SpA. CEO Bettina Orlopp aims to increase profitability and strengthen the bank’s position as a standalone entity, with further strategy details to be shared at an upcoming investor day. Despite UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel’s increased stake in Commerzbank, the German government opposes a takeover, and Orcel indicated he might abandon the pursuit if it becomes unfavourable.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.46% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Asian markets rose after Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration, reflecting investor anticipation of the new U.S. administration’s policies. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index reached its highest since December 31, driven by consumer cyclical and healthcare firms, closing up 1.76%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 0.45%, with the People’s Bank of China maintaining its 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%. The offshore yuan strengthened to 7.3345 per U.S. dollar, amidst differing monetary policies between the U.S. and China. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.17%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.45%, while South Korea’s Kospi slipped slightly by 0.14%.
U.S. stock market futures rose as Donald Trump assumed his second presidency, with investors optimistic about his economic agenda, particularly in the banking and energy sectors. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100 futures each saw gains between 0.4% to 0.6%. On a holiday-closed trading day, anticipations of deregulation and new economic policies buoyed investor sentiment. Planned executive actions include investigating trade practices, energy deregulation, and addressing immigration restrictions.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is seen as a boon for Big Oil, with plans to deregulate and boost fossil fuel production. The clean energy sector, particularly wind power, faces potential setbacks as Trump aims to cut support and dismantle existing policies. Despite the upbeat sentiment in the oil industry, major increases in production are unlikely due to current supply levels. The oil sector outlines policy desires under Trump, though concerns about tariffs remain. Wind energy faces regulatory challenges, but growth is still anticipated. Both oil and clean energy industries want certain aspects of Biden’s climate law preserved. Meanwhile, climate experts warn this political shift could hinder global emission reduction efforts.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.64% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.48% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Union and Mexico have finalized a revamped free-trade agreement to enhance economic security, de-risk supply chains, and cut tariffs on various products amid incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of imposing tariffs. The deal includes expanding EU exports in sectors like financial services, opening government contracts to equal competition, and lowering tariffs on agri-food items. This agreement, following negotiations since 2016, coincides with the EU’s broader strategy to bolster trade, defense and solidify partnerships amidst global trade tensions.
On Friday, the IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.3%, driven by stronger U.S. growth, despite downturns in Germany and France, and forecasted global inflation to decrease to 4.2%. The IMF warned against protectionist policies, like proposed tariffs by incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, which could disrupt global trade. The IMF is also monitoring potential U.S. deregulation of digital currencies, emphasizing the need for adequate oversight.
On Friday, Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 following U.S. inflation data that boosted hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts; other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and XRP also saw significant gains. The anticipation of Donald Trump’s impending inauguration and his pro-crypto agenda is expected to further drive up digital asset prices, though concerns remain about potential impacts from his immigration and tariff policies. Crypto markets are optimistic about imminent regulatory developments, with bipartisan support suggesting rapid progress on crypto legislation this year.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.67% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.48% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In December 2024, the unemployment rate in the Netherlands remained unchanged at 3.7%, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), with 373,000 unemployed individuals. The UWV reported approximately 175,000 active unemployment benefits at the end of December, a decrease of 1,700 compared to the end of November.
Both exports and imports in the Eurozone declined in November, with exports dropping by 1.6% year-on-year and imports falling by 1.0%, according to Eurostat.
Consumer prices in Germany rose more sharply in December, with inflation reaching 2.6% year-on-year, up from 2.2% in November. The increase matched economists’ expectations, according to Destatis, the German statistics office.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.49% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US stocks and bonds rallied as inflation data revealed a sharper-than-expected ease in underlying price pressures, prompting expectations for quicker Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. While headline inflation rose to 2.9% in December, core inflation unexpectedly dipped to 3.2%. Despite positive market trends, the Fed expressed caution in adjusting rates, concerned about inflation not decreasing quickly to their 2% target amid potential policies from the Trump administration.
Germany’s economy shrank by 0.2% in 2024, marking a second year of decline due to high energy costs, competition, and political uncertainty, with industrial production over 10% below its pandemic peak. The crisis, exacerbated by automotive sector challenges and the shift to electric vehicles, looms over an upcoming election, with candidate Friedrich Merz advocating for economic reforms. The Bundesbank forecasts continued stagnation and cautions that a US trade war could worsen the economic situation.
UK inflation unexpectedly decreased to 2.5% in December, mainly due to falling restaurant and hotel prices, prompting a rally in gilts and raising hopes for Bank of England rate cuts. This offers some relief to Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid concerns of stagflation and rising borrowing costs, though inflation is expected to rise again due to volatile factors. Despite this temporary dip, the Bank of England may have an opening to cut rates in February, while economic challenges persist.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.69% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 11 basis points to 2.51% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, producer prices in the United States rose less sharply in December than anticipated. Prices increased by 0.2 percent, while economists had expected a 0.4 percent rise. In November, there was a 0.4 percent month-over-month increase in producer prices.
The Netherlands has successfully raised 1.92 billion euros yesterday by reopening a long-term bond issuance. This bond, which matures on January 15, 2054, offers a yield of 2.953 percent. The total outstanding amount under this bond is currently 15.55 billion euros.
Yesterday, oil prices fell after a series of increases which were driven by stricter U.S. sanctions against Russia and high fuel demand due to winter cold. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures closed 1.7 percent lower at 77.50 dollar per barrel. This decline offers a break in the recent upward trend. Since the start of the year, WTI oil has risen by 7 dollar and Brent oil by over 6 dollar.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. dollar hit a two-year high on Monday after a strong jobs report reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts. Investors await inflation data and Fed speeches, considering potential policy changes under President-elect Trump. The euro and British pound reached multi-year lows, while China’s yuan slightly strengthened amid defensive measures, and Japan’s yen showed resilience with potential rate hikes.
Oil reached a five-month peak as supply concerns arose from U.S. sanctions on Russian crude. WTI and Brent prices increased, driven by colder weather and falling stockpiles. Analysts expect Brent to average $73 by 2025, with OPEC+ planning to boost production. Major importers like China and India are cautious dealing with Russian oil.
Tech stocks fell Monday as investors took profits, with Nasdaq down 0.38% and Palantir sliding 3.4%. Sectoral rotation saw shifts to non-tech stocks like Amgen, while interest in AI remains strong thanks to demand indicated by TSMC and Foxconn earnings. Rising rates pressure tech stocks more than value stocks, influencing market dynamics.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.64% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.57% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
