The U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January, below expectations, with revisions and weather potentially distorting the data. Unemployment dipped to 4.0%, while wage growth accelerated to 0.5%, suggesting a still-resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least June, monitoring economic trends and Trump’s policy impact.
Despite bullish LNG market projections, global supply grew just 2.5% in 2024, partly due to the Biden administration’s LNG export pause. An overbuilt shipping fleet has led to a glut, with spot charter rates in the Atlantic dropping over 90%. U.S. LNG exports have prioritized Europe over Asia, driven by price differences and potential trade tensions with China.
Rising chocolate prices are expected to reduce demand in 2024, leading JPMorgan to cut its cocoa supply deficit forecast to 40,000 tons from 108,000 tons. Cocoa futures have surged near $10,000 a ton, prompting chocolate makers to raise prices and explore recipe reformulations to offset costs. Consumer demand is weakening as high prices impact sales, with global cocoa grindings projected to decline by at least 1.8%.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.47% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.30% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of England, as anticipated, cut the interest rate by 25 basis points yesterday. The reduction lowered the rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, following previous cuts in August and November 2024. Additionally, the central bank halved its growth forecast for 2025 to just 0.75%, while inflation is expected to rise from the current 2.5% to 3.7% in the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, labor costs and productivity in the United States increased less than predicted. Costs rose by 3.0%, slightly below the expected 3.3%. Hourly wages grew by 4.2% during this period, according to preliminary figures from U.S. authorities.
In December, retail sales in the eurozone experienced a slight decline, as reported by Eurostat yesterday. Sales decreased by 0.2%, compared to the previous month.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.48% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.32% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices fell as fears of a US-China trade war impacting global growth overshadowed Trump’s move to increase economic pressure on Iran. West Texas Intermediate dropped around 1% to $72 per barrel, while US crude inventories saw their biggest rise in a year. Despite market volatility driven by tariffs and sanctions, analysts suggest potential supply disruptions could still reverse the trend.
Interest in UK government bond futures has surged, with outstanding contracts nearly tripling in two years due to market volatility and investor concerns over UK debt sustainability. Gilt yields hit a 25-year high before retreating as investors sought safety amid global equity market shocks. Traders are now positioning for potential Bank of England rate cuts, with capital markets pricing in three to four reductions this year.
Kenya’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 10.75% from 11.25% to support economic growth, as inflation remains low and stable. The decision comes amid a slowing economy, with growth estimated at 4.6% in 2024 but expected to rebound to 5.4% in 2025. Despite stable foreign exchange reserves and strong investor inflows, Kenya faces significant external debt obligations, requiring $4.56 billion for payments by June.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 6 basis points to 2.48% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.31% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, lowering the Bank Rate from 4.75% to 4.50%. This follows a pause in December, with previous cuts in August and November 2024.
The number of job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.6 million in December from 8.2 million in November, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
China will impose additional tariffs of up to 15% on selected U.S. imports starting February 10. This includes 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% higher import duties on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and certain cars.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 5 basis points to 2.54% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.33% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Eurozone inflation increased to 2.5% in January, exceeding economists’ expectations of 2.4%, driven by a sharp rise in energy costs, according to Eurostat. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like energy and food, remained at 2.7% for the fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, services inflation edged slightly lower to 3.9%. The European Central Bank (ECB) remains confident that inflation will gradually return to its 2% target in 2025, despite persistent services inflation. The ECB recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to ease further throughout the year. However, economists warn that inflation risks, including potential EU-U.S. trade tariffs, could complicate the outlook.
Bitcoin rebounded above $99,500 after initially plunging to $91,200 following U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. The recovery came as the U.S. agreed to pause Mexico’s tariffs for a month. Despite the market turbulence, analysts say Bitcoin remains the crypto industry’s reserve asset, attracting liquidity in times of uncertainty. Other cryptocurrencies, including Ether, saw steeper losses, with long liquidations exceeding $850 million across the market. While some experts believe prolonged trade tensions could ultimately benefit Bitcoin by weakening the U.S. dollar, near-term volatility remains a risk, with $90,000 seen as a crucial support level.
Asian markets rallied Tuesday after Donald Trump delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.15%, South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.52%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 2%. Australia’s ASX 200 saw a modest 0.2% increase, while India’s Nifty 50 and Sensex opened higher. Meanwhile, U.S. markets struggled despite the tariff pause. The Dow Jones pared losses but still closed down 0.28%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.76% and 1.2%, respectively. Investors remain cautious amid ongoing trade uncertainty.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.59% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 2.34% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Traders are betting on a deeper divergence between European and US interest rates, pushing the euro lower as the European Central Bank is expected to continue cutting rates amidst weak inflation data from Germany and France. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady makes the dollar more attractive, with some forecasters predicting euro-dollar parity in the coming months. This divergence is further emphasized by potential US punitive trade tariffs and solid US growth, contrasting with stagnating euro zone growth.
Global currency markets are bracing for volatility as President Trump sets a Saturday deadline to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, impacting their currencies significantly. Implied volatility for the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso has spiked, with increased demand for options hedging against sharp currency movements. The U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade tension is being closely watched, serving as a benchmark for future U.S. trade policy impacts on currency markets.
President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on imports from its neighbors could raise gas prices in the US, affecting consumers and various industries, as a significant portion of US refined crude oil comes from these countries. Economists predict that US drillers won’t significantly boost production to offset potential price increases because many refineries cannot efficiently process domestic light crude. The impact on prices is uncertain and may depend on actions by OPEC+, which has been managing global production levels to influence prices.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.59% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.41% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The growth of the U.S. economy slowed in the fourth quarter. Preliminary figures from the U.S. Department of Commerce show an increase of 2.3 percent. This is a decrease compared to 3.1 percent growth in the third quarter and 3.0 percent growth in the second quarter.
The European Central Bank has once again reduced the official interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the deposit facility at 2.75 percent. This decision is based on a renewed assessment of inflation expectations and economic developments. The ECB emphasizes that the disinflation process is proceeding as planned, with inflation on track to reach the 2 percent target later this year.
Italy’s economy showed no growth in the second half of 2024, culminating in an GDP increase of just 0.5% in 2025. Without economic momentum carrying into 2025, achieving the government’s 2025 growth target of 1.2% seems increasingly unlikely.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.60% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.47% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, pausing recent cuts amid strong labor market conditions and persistent inflation. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that further reductions would require clear inflation progress or labor market weakness. Meanwhile, President Trump has pressured the Fed for immediate rate cuts, raising concerns of political friction. Inflation remains above the 2% target, and markets expect the next cut in June. Stocks fell following the announcement.
Germany slashed its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.3%, down from 1.1%, citing stagnation, labor shortages, and geopolitical uncertainty, including potential U.S. tariffs under Trump. The economy shrank 0.2% in 2024, and some industry groups predict another contraction in 2025. Inflation is expected to average 2.2% this year, while a modest recovery to 1.1% growth is projected for 2026. The upcoming federal election in February adds further uncertainty.
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3%, warning that Trump’s planned 25% tariffs on Canadian imports could fuel inflation and harm growth. The bank lowered its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.8% from 2.1% and expects inflation to reach 2.3%. With the economy shrinking on a per-capita basis for six consecutive quarters and immigration curbs likely to slow population growth, uncertainty remains high. Markets see a 43% chance of another rate cut in March.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.59% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.53% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Dutch State raised € 2.45 billion by reopening a five-year bond, the Ministry of Finance’s agency announced on Tuesday after the auction. The bond, maturing on January 15, 2030, has an average yield of 2.493%.
New orders for durable goods in the U.S. unexpectedly declined in December, following an earlier drop in November, according to data released by the U.S. government on Tuesday. Durable goods orders fell by 2.2%, while the market had expected an increase of 0.5%.
Consumer confidence in France rose more sharply in January than expected, according to figures from the French statistics bureau Insee released on Tuesday. The confidence index reached 92, up from 89 in December. Economists had anticipated the index would remain unchanged.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.60% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.52% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Chip stocks in Europe and the US saw significant losses after Chinese start-up DeepSeek unveiled an AI model that rivals US giants, while requiring significantly fewer chips. This development challenges the prevailing belief that more computing power and chips are essential for advancing AI, raising concerns over long-term investments in AI infrastructure. This development could push American companies to focus on building more efficient AI models, potentially reducing their massive investments in chips and related infrastructure.
Brussels faces mounting pressure from businesses and EU member states to reduce sustainability regulations in response to Donald Trump’s deregulation efforts. Critics argue that current EU regulations hinder investment and competitiveness, with major companies and countries like France and Germany calling for regulatory pauses and delays. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is committed to simplifying sustainability reporting, but there are concerns that easing too much could undermine the EU’s goal of using sustainability as a competitive advantage.
Japanese investors have offloaded €41bn in Eurozone government bonds over six months due to rising Japanese interest rates and European political instability. This trend is reshaping global financial markets and adding pressure on European governments facing high borrowing costs. Japanese investors are increasingly seeking domestic returns, altering international bond market dynamics.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.58% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.50% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
