Oil prices rose on Friday after Russian vice premier suggested that OPEC+ could reverse its planned production increase if the market remains unbalanced. Earlier this week, WTI and Brent fell to their lowest levels since September, partly due to concerns about a global trade war and the economic impact of Trump’s aggressive trade policies. The decision by OPEC+ to proceed with easing production cuts in April also contributed to the decline. Despite Friday’s rebound, analysts still consider oil prices to be in a ‘bear’ market, with a weekly drop of nearly 4%.
As Europe prioritizes defense, it faces resistance from its own banking sector. Defense industry executives and politicians are calling for urgent regulatory reforms to help banks fund arms manufacturers more efficiently. Many defense startups struggle with basic banking services due to internal restrictions and ESG concerns, which treat arms manufacturing as a reputational risk. The urgency intensified after President Trump publicly berated Ukraine’s leader and suspended military aid, prompting Europe to pledge massive financial support for Kyiv. However, despite political momentum, banks remain slow to adjust, with defense companies still facing significant financing barriers.
US consumer prices rose in February, highlighting slow progress on inflation, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to stay cautious. The core consumer price index is expected to have increased 3.2% from last year, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. While economic data indicate some labor market weaknesses and softer consumer spending, price pressures persist, particularly with the upcoming 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. The Fed is awaiting clearer signs of disinflation before adjusting interest rates.
The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to 2.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.71% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected. The deposit facility rate decreased from 2.75% to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate from 2.90% to 2.65%, and the marginal lending facility from 3.15% to 2.90%.
The U.S. trade deficit increased significantly in January, rising 34% compared to December 2024, from $98.1 billion to $131.4 billion, driven mainly by a sharp rise in imports. Analysts had forecast a deficit of $128.7 billion. The increase was primarily in goods, not services.
U.S. labor costs rose 2.2% in Q4 2024, outpacing productivity growth. However, the increase was lower than the 3.0% increase expected by analysts.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.35% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
German borrowing costs surged to their highest one-day increase since 1997, driven by a major fiscal agreement to boost military and infrastructure spending aimed at enhancing economic growth. The plan involves creating a €500bn off-balance sheet vehicle and adjusting borrowing limits, pending parliamentary approval and Green party support. This development has led to higher bond yields and positive reactions in stock markets, particularly benefiting infrastructure and defense sectors.
For the first time in decades, the private equity industry’s assets under management fell by 2% last year as investors hesitated amid a backlog of unsold deals. Fundraising dropped significantly due to reduced asset sales and cash returns, causing large pension funds and endowments to withdraw. The industry faces ongoing challenges, with low liquidity and declining fees, making a quick recovery unlikely.
An EU parliamentary think-tank is exploring using exchange traded funds (ETFs) to boost investment in European defense companies, aiming to create a fund focused solely on the region. Current European defense ETFs, like VanEck’s, have significant US exposure, prompting discussions to increase European content possibly with EU seed investments. Interest in defense ETFs has surged amid increasing defense spending, though ethical and diversification challenges persist in forming a purely European-focused fund.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.34% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 23 basis points to 2.64% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Commission announced a plan yesterday to enhance Europe’s defense capabilities, involving a collective loan of 150 billion euros to member states as part of a broader 800 billion euro package. These funds are aimed at developing pan-European systems, such as air and missile defense, to improve the overall security infrastructure.
According to figures released by Eurostat yesterday, the unemployment rate in the eurozone remained stable at 6.2 percent in January versus previous year’s rate of 6.5 percent in January 2024.
South Korea experienced a decline in industrial production and corporate investment in January, signaling increased uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and their global impact, according to government data released yesterday. Seasonally adjusted figures show a 2.3% decrease in factory output, contrasting with a 3.9% rise in the previous month. Despite the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, plans by the Trump administration to implement a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum worldwide, including South Korea, add to economic concerns.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.33% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.41% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The S&P 500 fell 1.76% on Monday, extending February’s losses and turning negative for the year, as President Trump confirmed upcoming tariffs. The Dow Jones dropped 1.48%, and the Nasdaq declined 2.64%, with Nvidia leading the losses. The market downturn deepened after Trump reaffirmed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% duty on China. These tariff concerns overshadowed any positive market sentiment.
South Korean defense stocks surged on Tuesday, led by Hanwha Aerospace (up 16.67%) and Hyundai Rotem (up 11.51%), as the Russia-Ukraine war drove global security concerns. The rise follows increased military orders and expectations of higher defense spending, particularly in Europe. Analysts predict European defense spending could grow to 3.1% of GDP by 2029.
Bitcoin’s rally faded on Monday as traders focused on concerns about the economic impact of proposed tariffs. Bitcoin dropped 8% to $86,000, and Ether fell 15% to $2,100. Stocks related to cryptocurrencies, like Coinbase and Robinhood, also reversed gains. Despite initial excitement about a U.S. strategic crypto reserve, analysts believe the impact was short-lived, and market concerns remain.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.40% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Inflation in Germany remained stable at 2.3% in February, the same as in January and as expected. Core inflation fell to 2.6% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in January. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% from January, despite expectations of a 0.2% decline. In France, inflation dropped significantly below 1% for the first time in four years. Next week, eurozone-wide inflation data will be released.
Ongoing tariff threats and potential federal job cuts are dampening consumer confidence in the US, leading to a 0.2% drop in spending despite rising incomes. Inflation has slightly cooled, but proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could drive prices higher, forcing businesses to raise costs and cut jobs. Economic uncertainty is causing companies to delay investments, with some executives warning that the volatility is harming U.S. businesses more than foreign partners.
Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000, down 27% from its peak of $109,500 during Trump’s inauguration, due to economic uncertainty and profit-taking. A major hack at crypto exchange Bybit, where $1.5 billion in ether was stolen, has further shaken trust in cryptocurrencies. Scandals involving memecoins like $libra and Trump’s own coins, along with declines in major cryptocurrencies such as Solana, Ethereum, and Ripple, are contributing to the downward trend.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.34% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer confidence and economic sentiment in the eurozone improved slightly in February, according to final data from the European Commission. The confidence index rose from -14.2 in January to -13.6 in February but remains below the long-term average. The figures were in line with previous estimates.
The U.S. economy grew at a lower pace in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months, as shown by a second estimate from the U.S. Department of Commerce. GDP growth was 2.3% in Q4, confirming the initial estimate. This follows growth rates of 3.1% in Q3 and 3.0% in Q2.
The number of new unemployment benefit claims in the U.S. rose last week, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. For the week ending February 22, claims reached 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week. Analysts had expected 225,000 new claims.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.35% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European markets are set for a sharp drop after U.S. President Trump threatened 25% tariffs on EU imports, focusing on cars and farm products. Major indices like the FTSE 100, DAX, CAC, and FTSE MIB are expected to fall. Trump’s trade war comments escalated tensions, with the EU vowing a firm response. The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar amid rising trade war fears.
Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. dropped to a two-month low, with 30-year fixed rates falling to 6.88%. Despite this, mortgage applications fell by 1.2% compared to the previous week. Refinances dropped by 4%, though they remained 45% higher than last year. Applications for home purchases remained stable, while inventory remains low, keeping prices high.
BP has shifted focus from green energy to fossil fuels, planning to invest $10 billion yearly in oil and gas and produce 2.4 million barrels per day by 2030. This reversal follows pressure from investors and a decline in BP’s market value, which fell 25% over two years. BP also plans to reduce debt and sell $20 billion in assets to boost shareholder value.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.36% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer confidence in the United States significantly declined in February due to concerns about employment, rising prices, and import tariffs. The decline potentially indicates an impending economic recession, as shown by figures released yesterday by The Conference Board. The confidence index dropped from 105.3 to 98.3, more than anticipated.
In the fourth quarter, the German economy contracted according to figures from Destatis. The gross domestic product shrank by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter and showed the same decline on an annual basis.
In February, Brazil witnessed its steepest monthly increase in the IPCA-15 consumer price index in nearly three years. This surge was largely driven by escalating housing and education expenses, pushing annual inflation to its highest level since late 2023. The statistics agency IBGE reported a 1.23% rise in prices in the month by mid-February, marking the most substantial February increase since 2016.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.38% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Friedrich Merz, recently victorious in the German elections, is exploring the option of using the outgoing Bundestag to ease the country’s strict debt brake. Despite the potential blockage from far-right and far-left parties, Merz aims to negotiate with mainstream parties to secure investments and defense funding before the new parliament convenes. While reform is deemed crucial by some, there are concerns about the political ramifications and possible constitutional challenges.
Keir Starmer has announced a major sanctions package targeting Russia’s shadow fleet and military supply chains, aiming to pressure Moscow amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. The UK will also broaden exclusions to restrict Kremlin-linked oligarchs and officials from entering the country, emphasizing its solidarity with Kyiv. As tensions rise, Starmer and European leaders are set to ensure sanctions and support for Ukraine remain steadfast.
Crypto companies are increasing sports sponsorships amid renewed enthusiasm following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. This revival has led to more deals despite past challenges such as the FTX collapse. While these partnerships broaden audience reach, they raise concerns about financial risks for fans, underscoring the need for due diligence.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.45% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.42% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
