This week, markets will focus on U.S. PCE inflation, a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Economic growth and sentiment data from major regions like the U.S., UK, eurozone and Japan will also draw attention. The earnings season is nearing its end, with only a few companies left to report their annual results.
Morningstar DBRS revised France’s credit outlook to negative, citing rising risks around managing its high debt and fiscal deficit. Political instability, especially after recent government turmoil and a fragile parliamentary majority, complicates fiscal reforms. While a new budget aims to narrow the deficit, high public spending and rising defense costs challenge progress. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty could further pressure France’s credit profile.
The Netherlands’ financing needs for 2025 are lower than previously expected, according to the Finance Ministry’s agency. The total requirement is now estimated at €88.9 billion, down €17.5 billion from earlier projections. Capital market issuance remains unchanged at around €40 billion, while money market issuance is revised down significantly. The drop is mainly due to lower-than-expected government spending.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Unemployment in the Netherlands remained largely unchanged in February, according to figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS). The unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%, the same level as in January.
The Swiss central bank has lowered interest rates for the fifth consecutive time. On Thursday, it was announced that the interest rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 0.25%.
UK unemployment slightly increased from 4.3% to 4.4% between November 2024 and January 2025, according to the British government.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The EU plans to establish a €150bn rearmament fund for defence spending that excludes US, UK, and Turkey unless they sign defence pacts with Brussels, emphasizing a “Buy European” approach. This move aims to strengthen the European defence industry and reduce reliance on non-EU partners amidst concerns about dependability on the US. The proposal, which requires approval by a majority of EU states, would allow countries to spend 35% of the loans on products from select third countries like Norway and Ukraine.
Investors have shifted $22bn into short-term US government debt, seeking stability amid market volatility and concerns over Trump’s policies affecting economic growth and inflation. The appeal of short-term debt has grown due to attractive yields and its perceived safety compared to riskier assets such as equities and (junk) bonds.
Indonesian stocks fell nearly 4% amid economic concerns, including slowing consumer spending and costly government spending plans. The Jakarta Composite Index has declined 14.8% over the past year, exacerbated by weakening purchasing power, manufacturing decline, and pressure on the middle class due to lower employment. Fiscal challenges and potential interest rate decisions by Bank Indonesia add further uncertainty, prompting fears about future economic stability.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.68% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
After cutting the Bank Rate to 4.50% in February, the Bank of England is expected to pause on Thursday. There are internal disagreements within the Monetary Policy Committee on the pace of rate cuts. Some market participants anticipate a cautious approach, with potential cuts in May and a total of 100 basis points by early 2026. Other participants expect three more 25-basis-point cuts in 2025. U.S. import tariffs could impact UK inflation and investment. The Bank of England’s decision will be announced Thursday afternoon.
Oil prices declined as market weakness and concerns over a global supply glut outweighed rising tensions in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate dropped to around $67 per barrel ahead of a key Federal Reserve decision. Despite Israeli airstrikes in Gaza and U.S. pressure on Iran, traders see geopolitical risks as selling opportunities. Crude remains on track for a quarterly loss due to trade war concerns and an expected OPEC production increase.
The German parliament approved an investment fund and easing of debt limits on Tuesday. Chancellor Merz’s plans are expected to boost EU growth. Defense stocks surged amid increased military spending expectations, while the euro strengthened on geopolitical developments.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.69% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Asia-Pacific stock markets rose on Tuesday morning, following Wall Street’s rally after U.S. retail sales data eased recession fears. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index led the surge, rising 2.07%, driven by a strong performance from tech giant Baidu. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.3% ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting, no changes are expected. Meanwhile, India’s Nifty 50 and Sensex saw over 1% gains, while Australia’s ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi remained flat. In the U.S., major indices rebounded, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones posting solid gains.
Oil prices climbed on Monday after U.S. President Trump warned Iran it would be held responsible for future Houthi attacks. U.S. crude rose 0.6% to $67.58 per barrel, while Brent gained 0.69% to $71.07. The warning followed U.S. airstrikes targeting the Houthis, who have disrupted Red Sea shipping in support of Hamas. The U.S. vows to continue its strikes until the attacks stop. Meanwhile, Trump has reimposed pressure on Iran, aiming to weaken its economy and prevent nuclear development, while also expressing interest in renegotiating a nuclear deal.
European stocks started the week on a positive note, with the Stoxx 600 closing 0.79% higher, though chemicals lagged. British defense firm QinetiQ plunged nearly 21% after cutting its revenue outlook. Meanwhile, German lawmakers moved closer to reforming the country’s debt brake rule, with likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz securing support for increased public borrowing to boost defense spending. A Bundestag vote on the reform is set for today. Investors remain cautious amid ongoing global market volatility and trade uncertainty.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.71% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In March, U.S. consumer sentiment reached its lowest point in over two years, with the consumer sentiment index at 57.9, while inflation expectations rose. The decrease was driven by concerns that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which have sparked a trade war, could raise prices and weaken the economy.
China’s State Council announced a plan on Sunday aimed at boosting domestic spending, with initiatives to raise household incomes and introduce childcare subsidies. The plan addresses declines in consumer demand linked to COVID-19 disruptions and a continued property market downturn, which have contributed to deflationary pressures.
Moody’s has upgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘investment grade’, making it considered creditworthy by Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P for the first time since 2010. Moody’s states that Greece has become financially stronger and expects that, through effective government policies and stability, the country can significantly reduce its debt.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.75% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Industrial production in the eurozone increased by 0.8% in January after a 0.4% decline in December, which was revised. On an annual basis, production remained stable, according to Eurostat.
The number of new unemployment benefit applications in the U.S. decreased last week to 220,000, down 2,000 from the previous week. Analysts had expected 225,000 new claims.
Producer prices in the U.S. remained stable in February, following a 0.6% rise in January, which was revised up from an initial estimate of 0.4%, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.37% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US inflation dropped to 2.8% in February, lower than expected, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Markets responded with cautious optimism, but concerns remain over the impact of Trump’s tariffs on future inflation. Economists warn that while inflation is easing, trade tensions and policy uncertainty could create new risks for the economy.
The EU has retaliated against Donald Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium within hours of them taking effect. The European Commission stated that its measures would affect up to €26bn of American goods, and would take effect in April. Targeted products include bourbon, jeans, and motorcycles, with additional levies planned on agricultural and industrial exports.
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to 2.75% for the seventh consecutive cut, citing economic uncertainty from US tariffs. The central bank warned that monetary policy cannot fully offset the impact of a trade war. Meanwhile, new Liberal leader Mark Carney aims to strengthen Canada’s economy ahead of an expected election.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The United States government, led by President Donald Trump, initially decided to increase import tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50 percent. However, trade advisor Peter Navarro reported last night that President Trump will “reconsider” the tariffs because Canada says it will suspend a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S.
According to the final figures from the Statistics Netherlands, inflation in the Netherlands rose to 3.8 percent in February. This increase was largely driven by rising food prices, particularly of meat and grain products, as well as higher expenditures on recreation, culture, and furniture items.
The European Union has issued a new bond maturing in 2035, which has garnered significant interest from investors. Despite the EU’s aim to raise €9 billion, investors have already placed orders exceeding €85 billion. The strong interest in European debt is partly driven by planned investments in defense, as the Union can no longer automatically rely on security assurances from the United States under President Donald Trump.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 2.77% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Japanese economy grew 2.2% annualized in Q4, below the 2.8% initial estimate, as weak domestic demand weighed on growth. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady at its March meeting but may hike as early as May, driven by inflationary pressures from wage increases and food costs. Inflation remains above the BOJ’s 2% target for the 34th consecutive month, with core inflation rising to 2.5% in January.
U.S. markets tumbled Monday amid recession fears tied to tariff policy uncertainty. The Dow fell 956 points (2.2%), the S&P 500 dropped 3.3%, and the Nasdaq slid 4.8%. Goldman Sachs cut its growth forecast, while comments from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted at an economic “detox period” due to spending cuts. Investors shifted to safer assets, pushing up the Cboe Volatility Index and boosting defensive stocks like Procter & Gamble.
China doubled its consumer trade-in subsidies to 300 billion yuan ($41.47 billion) for 2025, targeting mid-range smartphones and home appliances. This move highlights Beijing’s focus on boosting consumption — its top economic priority for the first time in a decade — amid slowing retail sales and deflation concerns. The subsidies are funded by ultra-long government bonds, as China raises its deficit to 4%, signaling more fiscal support to sustain its 5% GDP growth target.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
