Germany’s ruling conservatives, CDU, suffered their worst postwar election result as voters turned against unpopular pension, tax and healthcare reforms amid soaring energy and housing costs. The populist right AfD won nearly 38 percent in a key eastern state. Chancellor Merz vowed to maintain structural reforms despite the setback, risking further polarisation as eurozone growth stagnates.
Inflation remains elevated across the US economy at around 3.6 percent, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, with broad-based pressures in services and consumption. The Fed raised rates to 3.75 percent last week, with most officials projecting at least one more quarter-point increase before year-end. Despite geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, the economy shows resilience with strong growth and improving productivity.
Japan’s central bank raised rates to a 31-year high of 1.25 percent but signalled caution with two dissenting votes and core inflation remaining at just 1.7 percent. Markets reacted counterintuitively as investors interpreted the split decision as restraint, with the yen weakening and stocks rising 1.5 percent despite the rate increase. Further hikes are likely but experts expect the terminal rate to settle between 1.75 and 2 percent by 2027.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.96% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.55% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of England announced a major adjustment to its quantitative tightening programme, pausing gilt sales for six months and halting sales of long-dated bonds as it seeks to unwind its remaining £488 billion bond portfolio by 2034. The move follows a sharp rise in UK borrowing costs, with 30-year gilt yields recently reaching their highest level since 1998, highlighting broader pressures across global bond markets and concerns over government financing costs.
US regulators approved a framework allowing the trading of tokenised stocks, a move that could accelerate the integration of blockchain technology into traditional financial markets. Supporters argue that tokenisation could enable 24/7 trading, faster settlement and lower transaction costs, while potentially expanding investor access to equities. The decision signals growing institutional acceptance of digital asset infrastructure despite ongoing political debates over broader cryptocurrency legislation.
Turkish authorities introduced emergency measures after turmoil in parts of the investment fund industry triggered an 8% decline in the benchmark stock index over two trading sessions. Regulators froze trading in funds managed by several asset managers, ordered the liquidation of 130 funds, and eased access to liquidity to prevent broader contagion. The episode poses a challenge to Turkey’s efforts to restore investor confidence and strengthen economic credibility amid ongoing market reforms.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.97% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.52% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Trump has threatened tariffs on the EU or a halt to trade if it proceeds with granting Canada associate membership. Canada, already facing a 50 per cent tariff on its goods from the US, seeks to diversify through a pact eliminating tariffs on 99 per cent of goods with the European Union. Any fresh US tariffs would test the 15 per cent ceiling agreed between Washington and Brussels last year.
The Fed’s first rate hike since July 2023 strengthens the dollar and elevates global bond yields, pressuring equity valuations and economic growth. Central banks from the ECB to the Bank of Japan are raising rates in tandem, though divergent Asian inflation conditions may prevent fully synchronized tightening. Higher Treasury yields, nearing 5%, are redirecting capital flows and raising company financing costs worldwide.
Japanese corporate leaders are calling for a stronger yen despite benefiting from currency weakness, with the yen trading at 156.3 against the dollar. Even dollar-earning exporters fear volatility hampers strategy, citing 100 to 150 yen per dollar as appropriate levels. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% on Friday amid mounting pressure for currency stabilization.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.95% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 3.55% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Dutch government will raise taxes by €6.9bn in 2027, largely through higher labour taxes and social security contributions, to help fund increased spending on defence and other priorities. Higher earners will bear the largest burden as the top income tax threshold is frozen at €78,426 and additional measures raise a further €750mn. A €1.5bn purchasing power package softens the impact but mainly redistributes income rather than offsets the broader tax increase.
The US 10 year Treasury yield has climbed above 5% for the first time since 2007, raising concerns that prolonged high borrowing costs could strain housing, commercial real estate and highly leveraged borrowers. Markets may absorb the move initially, but refinancing debt at 6% to 8% instead of 2% to 3% could pressure cash flows and credit quality over the next 12 to 18 months. Investors increasingly see the duration of elevated yields, rather than the 5% threshold itself, as the key risk for financial markets.
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, with 89% of economists surveyed anticipating a move as inflation reaches 1.9% and real wages rise 2.4%. A faster tightening cycle could support the yen and signal a shift away from Japan’s long era of ultra loose monetary policy. Markets are increasingly focused on the implications for global bond yields and currency markets, with 61% of respondents expecting the yen to trade between 155 and 160 against the dollar over the next month.
The 6M Euribor increased with 12 basis points to 2.94% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.57% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
India’s food costs climbed sharply in August, with onion prices up almost 50% and ginger up more than 70% from a year earlier, the latest consumer price index shows. A weak monsoon, running 15% below normal rainfall, biofuel demand for grain and global conflicts all add pressure. Broader inflation exceeded the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target for a third month, and economists increasingly expect a rate hike as early as October.
Long-term government bond yields have climbed to levels unseen in years. The German ten year yield rose above 3.55%, its highest since 2009, while the US ten year passed 5.00% for the first time since October 2023. Investors demand higher risk premiums on persistent inflation, high public debt and heavy borrowing by the artificial intelligence sector. Short-dated bonds are also under pressure, with markets pricing further hikes after the European Central Bank moved to 2.5%.
Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks fell sharply worldwide on Monday after leading AI executives warned about the risks of rapid development. The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.2% to a six week low and the Philadelphia chip index dropped 5.1%, with Nvidia down 3.6% and ASML losing 5.9%. Anthropic’s chief executive called on companies to slow capability advances. Not all investors are convinced, and some analysts still expect AI spending to exceed $1.3 trillion by 2027.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.82% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 3.54% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Xi Jinping urges BRICS members to push for a lasting Middle East ceasefire, as oil benchmarks rose over 2.5% amid ongoing regional tensions. China remains Iran’s top trading partner and a major buyer of its energy exports, even as fresh US sanctions target Tehran’s financial links abroad. Economists note China’s years of oil stockpiling, followed by reduced purchases, have helped cap further price increases.
US inflation outpaced wage growth again in August, with consumer prices up 3.4% year on year against 3.1% wage growth, eroding real earnings. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% annually, a reversal driven largely by an energy price surge since spring, with gasoline up 3.9% in August alone. Consumers are already trading down to discount and warehouse retailers as households brace for a prolonged squeeze on spending power.
Corporate insolvencies in Germany climbed to a 13 year high in the first half of 2026, with 12,812 filings marking a 6.7% rise year on year. Transportation and warehousing bore the brunt. The rise comes despite signs of recovery, as business morale hit a one year high in August.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.81% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.54% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) is creating new financial stability risks. The BIS estimates that the world’s five largest technology companies will have invested over $1 trillion in AI during 2025 and 2026, while global AI investment could reach $4 trillion by 2030. Concerns include rising debt-funded investment, opaque private credit financing, high valuations and market concentration. AI may boost productivity, but labour market disruption remains a risk.
The European Central Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking its second increase of the year as it seeks to contain eurozone inflation, which stood at 3.3% in August. While many economists view this move as sufficient, financial markets increasingly expect another hike in December. Rising oil, gas and fuel prices have renewed inflation concerns, while stronger-than-expected economic activity may imply that current interest rates remain insufficiently restrictive.
Chinese regulators have instructed investment bankers to maintain conservative initial public offering (IPO) pricing and avoid a surge of listings from companies viewed as low quality. The move follows strong investor demand for recent technology IPOs, which generated large first-day gains. Authorities aim to strengthen confidence among retail investors and support strategic sectors. Regulators are also encouraging long-term investment by state-backed funds and extending lock-up periods to promote more stable market performance.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 3.53% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices climbed close to USD 100 per barrel after the United States intensified military action against Iran, including strikes on multiple Iranian oil tankers, while Houthi attacks targeted Saudi energy infrastructure. Brent crude rose to around USD 99.5 per barrel, extending recent gains as concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz increased. Analysts warned that prolonged conflict, combined with stronger Chinese demand and broader geopolitical tensions, could push oil prices above USD 100 and further fuel global inflation pressures.
Sterling strengthened to a two-week high against the U.S. dollar, supported by expectations that the Bank of England may need to tighten monetary policy further amid rising inflation risks. UK consumer inflation increased to 2.9% in July from 2.6% in June, while higher energy prices linked to Middle East tensions have reinforced expectations for future rate hikes. Markets currently price in at least two Bank of England rate increases by March 2027, although policymakers emphasised that there is no predetermined path for monetary policy.
Mexico’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.26% in August from 3.12% in July, marking the first increase in five months and supporting a cautious approach to monetary policy. Despite the rise in headline inflation, underlying price pressures continued to ease. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 3.88% from 3.95% in July and came in below market expectations. Monthly inflation increased by 0.20%, also slightly below forecasts.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 3.47% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The global minimum tax on multinationals has generated at least €590 million for the Dutch treasury since 2024, exceeding earlier expectations and boosting tax revenues from foreign energy groups. Petrobras alone contributed nearly €270 million after its effective tax rate would otherwise have been just 3.8%, below the 15% minimum threshold. The levy yielded at least €233 million in 2024 and €356 million in 2025, highlighting its growing fiscal impact.
The US and Canada have intensified their trade dispute, with Canada imposing tariffs of 15% to 50% on roughly $20 billion of US goods and Washington responding with plans to ban selected Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycle imports. The White House is also considering broader restrictions, including procurement bans and potential 50% tariffs on autos, threatening disruption to a trade relationship worth more than $715 billion annually. Despite escalating rhetoric, key sectors such as oil, gas and potash remain untouched.
Dutch household consumption grew by 1.2% year on year in July, down from 1.7% in June, signalling a modest slowdown in domestic demand. Spending on durable goods rose 3.1%, led by cars, clothing and household items, while services consumption increased 0.5%. The data suggest consumer spending remains resilient despite easing momentum, supporting the broader Dutch economic outlook.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.80% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 3.40% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Japan’s foreign reserves fell approximately 6.2% in August to $1.207 trillion, down from $1.287 trillion in July, marking the sharpest decline since records began in 2000. The drop stems from yen-buying interventions and falling bond values amid rising global yields. Tokyo has spent a record 27.1 trillion yen on interventions this year, including a coordinated move with the US in July. The yen has since recovered from a 40-year low of 163.98 to 155.98 per dollar.
German industrial production unexpectedly fell 1.1% in July, missing forecasts of a 0.1% rise, driven mainly by a 9.2% drop in automotive output due to production shutdowns. Energy production rose 4.7% on strong wind and solar generation. While industrial orders climbed 2.5% in July, economists do not expect this to lift output before the fourth quarter. Production was 1.6% lower year-on-year, signalling downside risks to third-quarter German gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
Chinese exports rose 25% year-on-year in August, driven by strong growth in high-tech products, cars and AI-related goods. Imports also grew, by over 28%, but the trade surplus still climbed to 119.1 billion dollars, one of the highest levels ever. The European Union (EU) has voiced concern over the rising surplus and plans to negotiate with China this month, while trade tensions with the United States (US) continue ahead of a planned meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.79% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 3.42% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
