The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%. The decision was unanimous. The Fed cited growing uncertainty in the economic outlook and increased risks of inflation and unemployment, partly due to high trade tariffs. Chair Jerome Powell noted the economy and labor market remain solid, but stressed the need to wait for clearer data before adjusting policy. The Fed currently anticipates two rate cuts this year, provided tariffs don’t cause sustained inflation.
Vietnamese exports to the US are surging as companies like Nike and Adidas rush to ship goods before expected tariffs take effect in July. Container traffic between Ho Chi Minh City and Los Angeles has hit record levels, with terminals nearing full capacity. The US is considering a 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods, amid concerns over Chinese products being rerouted through Vietnam. Dutch logistics providers report no major changes yet in shipments to the US, despite the looming tariff threat.
Gold fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled no urgency to change interest rates, despite economic risks from Trump’s trade policies. The dollar strengthened following his comments, pressuring gold further as it is priced in dollars. Earlier, bullion dropped over 2% on news of renewed U.S.–China trade talks, reducing safe-haven demand. Still, gold remains up 28% for the year, driven by market uncertainty and strong demand from China and central banks.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 2.43% compared to previous business day.
In March, the trade balance of the United States showed another deficit, with imports increasing by 4.4 percent to $419 billion, while exports grew by just 0.2 percent to $278.5 billion. As a result, the trade deficit rose to $140.5 billion, which was higher than the projected $137.6 billion.
Figures released by Eurostat yesterday show that producer prices in the eurozone fell by 1.6 percent in March, more than the expected 1.0 percent. A monthly drop of 5.8 percent in energy prices significantly contributed to this decline. On an annual basis, the price increase was 1.9 percent, which was lower than the forecasted 2.7 percent.
The recent power outage in Spain, which affected millions of households, has cost the economy nearly €400 million according to estimates by CaixaBank. The power failure led to a sharp drop of 34% in consumer spending on the day of the outage, partially offset by increased spending in the days following. CaixaBank expects the impact on the quarterly GDP to remain limited to less than a tenth of a percentage point.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.50% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. crude oil prices dropped 2% to $57.13 a barrel—marking their lowest level since February 2021—after OPEC+ announced a second consecutive production increase. With over 800,000 barrels per day added in May and June, and recession fears growing due to rising U.S. tariffs, the oil market faces a double hit of weak demand and surging supply. Major oil companies and service firms are cutting investments amid falling profits.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Tuesday as hopes grew for trade deals between the U.S. and regional partners. India and Malaysia reported progress on tariff talks, and U.S. officials hinted at imminent agreements. Chinese stocks rebounded after holidays, while a weakening dollar supported Asian currencies. Despite mixed data from China and India, investor sentiment remained cautiously upbeat.
U.S. stock futures were little changed as investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs. A rate cut is seen as unlikely, and Fed Chair Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance. On Monday, major indexes fell.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.48% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The US and Ukrainian governments have reached an agreement on a much-debated minerals deal. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called it a step toward ending the war and rebuilding Ukraine. As part of the deal, the US dropped its demand for Ukraine to repay billions in military aid. A central component is a joint investment fund, financed by the US and allies, to support Ukraine’s reconstruction. Although Trump initially saw the deal as a way to reclaim military funds, he eventually agreed that Ukraine would not need to repay the aid.
The Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, but expressed growing concerns about the impact of US import tariffs and global responses. As inflation in Japan remains persistent and wages are steadily rising, the central bank did not rule out future rate hikes.
UK manufacturing shrank in April, but less sharply than in March, according to final figures from S&P Global. The manufacturing PMI rose from 44.9 in March to 45.4 in April. The index still indicates contraction, even as this marks the seventh consecutive month of decline.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.43% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Figures released yesterday by The Conference Board indicate that U.S. consumer confidence in the economy fell more sharply in April than anticipated. The index dropped from 92.9 to 86.0 points, reaching its lowest level in over five years, comparable to conditions at the start of the COVID pandemic. Moreover, the sub-index for economic outlook over the next six months dropped significantly below the critical threshold, signaling recession risk.
According to figures released yesterday by Spain’s statistics agency INE, annual inflation remained stable at 2.2 percent in April, despite economists’ expectations for a slight decrease to 2.0 percent. Core inflation in April was 2.4 percent year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 1.0 percent in core prices.
The German research institute GfK released figures yesterday showing that consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in May, although it remains negative. The index increased by 3.7 points to -20.6, contrary to economists’ expectations of a decline to -26.0.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.47% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The UK and EU are preparing a new strategic partnership aimed at strengthening trade ties and economic stability amid global uncertainties. A draft declaration highlights their shared commitment to free and open trade, with both sides exploring ways to cushion the impact of global economic fluctuations. The upcoming UK-EU summit will also address efforts to reduce trade barriers and promote investment, particularly in renewables like North Sea energy. While broader political issues are on the agenda, the economic focus includes continued UK-US tariff talks and enhancing business growth opportunities on both sides of the Channel.
S&P 500 futures held steady after five days of gains as investors turned their focus to a busy earnings week and upcoming economic data. Despite Monday’s volatility, markets remained resilient with major indexes bouncing back by session close. Big Tech earnings are in the spotlight, with Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon reporting this week. So far, 73% of S&P 500 companies have beaten expectations, slightly below the five-year average. Traders are also watching U.S. data on home prices, job openings, and consumer confidence to assess the broader economic outlook.
HSBC posted stronger-than-expected Q1 2025 results, with pre-tax profit hitting $9.48 billion versus an expected $7.83 billion, thanks to robust wealth management and corporate banking performance. The bank also announced a $3 billion share buyback. Despite year-on-year declines, profits surged compared to the previous quarter. HSBC warned of trade-related macroeconomic risks and is monitoring potential tariff effects, particularly on ASEAN. Restructuring efforts continue, with cost savings planned despite short-term severance expenses. Analysts are watching for guidance revisions amid global economic uncertainty.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.50% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
ECB policymakers are growing more confident about a June rate cut but favor only a small move. Falling inflation and a weakening economy support a cut, although the outlook remains uncertain amid global tensions and Trump’s trade policies. Many ECB members want to avoid sparking market panic with too large a cut.
In the coming week, markets will focus on U.S. growth data, two jobs reports, and the Fed’s key PCE inflation figures. Uncertainty remains high due to Trump’s unpredictable trade and monetary policies, unsettling businesses and investors. Wednesday is expected to be the highlight, with major macroeconomic releases from both the U.S. and the eurozone.
US stocks have underperformed global markets in the first quarter of 2025 by the widest margin since 1993, as Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies sparked an investor shift away from American assets. The MSCI USA index fell 11%, while non-US stocks rose 4%, reflecting concerns that tariffs will hurt US growth more than elsewhere. A weaker dollar and rising policy uncertainty have further contributed to this gap.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.45% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
New orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose sharply by 9.2% in March, far exceeding expectations of a 1.6% increase. The strong rise was mainly driven by transportation equipment orders, which jumped 27% to $124.6 billion — the third consecutive monthly increase. Excluding transportation, orders were nearly flat. Orders excluding defense also rose by 10.4%. In February, durable goods orders had risen by 0.9%.
French consumer confidence held steady at 92 in April, unchanged from March, and remains below the long-term average of 100, according to Insee. More households considered it a good time to make major purchases, but fewer thought it was a good time to save. Optimism about future saving opportunities also declined slightly.
Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose slightly to 86.9 in April from 86.7 in March, against expectations of a decline. The index for current conditions improved to 86.4 from 85.7, while the expectations component edged down to 87.4 from 87.7.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 7 basis points to 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.45% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US stock markets saw a surge on Wednesday fueled by speculative comments from President Trump about tariffs and trade. Despite early gains, optimism faded after the Treasury Secretary dismissed tariff reduction rumors, with the S&P 500 closing up 1.7 percent. Analysts caution that erratic US policy decisions could impact economic stability, with markets remaining below levels seen at Trump’s inauguration.
The IMF forecasts slower global growth and higher U.S. inflation due to President Trump’s tariffs, predicting U.S. output to drop to 1.8% by 2025. These tariffs have increased economic uncertainty, prompting retaliatory actions from China and Canada, with the risk of a U.S. recession rising to 40%. Trump’s trade policies challenge inflation control and threaten global productivity, particularly impacting poorer countries.
Brazil’s top foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, stated that China and other Brics nations will advocate for international cooperation as the US retreats from multilateral engagement under President Trump. Amorim emphasized Brazil’s commitment to strengthening Brics and fostering good relations globally while noting Brazil’s own cautious approach towards China’s Belt and Road initiative. He believes that while the US remains integral to the global order, Brazil will pursue diplomacy that avoids conflict but still voices its independent opinions.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.48% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The International Monetary Fund has revised its forecast for the U.S. economy in 2025 to an expected growth of 1.8 percent, marking a significant reduction of 0.9 percentage points from the previous projection. Due to rising rates, the IMF anticipates a global slowdown in economic expansion, with Mexico being particularly affected, as it is now expected to experience a contraction of 0.3 percent in 2025, whereas earlier projections indicated a growth of 1.4 percent.
Preliminary data from the European Commission indicate that consumer confidence in the eurozone in April dropped to its lowest level in eighteen months. The index fell from -14.5 in March to -16.7 in April, pushing confidence further below the long-term average.
Spain is advancing an ambitious program for defense expenditure, aiming to meet the NATO standard of 2% of GDP within this year. The government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has announced plans to invest an additional € 10.5 billion over the next eight months. The investment includes € 3.5 billion earmarked for improving salaries and working conditions for military personnel.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.46% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
