In the U.S., businesses have started passing some tariff-related costs to consumers, but overall inflation remains subdued. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in May, with core inflation steady at 2.8%, both below expectations. Economists expect price pressures to build later this year if tariffs stay in place.
Wall Street slipped as rising Middle East tensions overshadowed a cooler-than-expected inflation report. Investors grew cautious after news of a possible U.S. embassy evacuation in Iraq and threats from Iran. Meanwhile, hopes for Fed rate cuts and progress on U.S.-China trade talks offered some support.
Crude oil prices jumped over 4% as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated, with growing uncertainty over a potential nuclear deal. The U.S. began evacuating non-essential personnel from its embassy in Iraq, citing heightened security risks. Regional alerts pointed to possible military escalation, fueling concerns in global energy markets.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.04% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.55% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
According to data released yesterday by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), confidence among small businesses in the U.S. increased in May. The index rose by 3 points, from 95.8 to 98.8, thus surpassing the long-term average of 98.
Through the reopening of a ten-year government bond, the Netherlands raised 2.45 billion euros yesterday, according to the Ministry of Finance. The anticipated amount ranged between 2.0 and 2.5 billion euros, with a yield set at 2.749 percent. This bond, maturing on July 15, 2035, holds a total volume of nearly 10.8 billion euros.
According to data released yesterday by the British government, unemployment in the United Kingdom slightly increased in the period up to April, while wage growth slowed down. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent, compared to 4.5 percent in the three months leading up to March. Wages increased by 5.2 percent, which was lower than the expected 5.3 percent, and lower than the 5.6 percent growth in the preceding period.
The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.55% compared to previous business day. The 6M Euribor is at 2.05%.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as markets had expected. The deposit rate was reduced from 2.25% to 2.00%, the main refinancing rate from 2.40% to 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility from 2.65% to 2.40%. The ECB stated that inflation is now around its 2% medium-term target. New forecasts show inflation is expected to be 2.0% this year, 1.6% in 2026, and back to 2.0% in 2027. Core inflation is projected to be 2.4% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 and 2027.
U.S. companies across various sectors have begun new rounds of layoffs to operate more efficiently amid economic uncertainty, following similar cutbacks last year. Job openings rose by 191,000 to 7.391 million at the end of April, but layoffs saw the largest increase in nine months. This suggests a weakening labor market, pressured by unpredictable policy changes under the Trump administration.
The U.S. trade deficit more than halved in April as imports fell sharply and exports slightly increased, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The trade deficit dropped by 55.5% year-on-year to $61.6 billion. Exports rose by 3.0% to $289.4 billion, while imports dropped by 16.3% to $351.0 billion. The U.S. had a $17.9 billion trade deficit with the EU and $19.7 billion with China in April.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 2.58% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
China’s export restrictions on rare earths are disrupting European automobile production and raising fears of broader supply chain instability. Car makers like Mercedes-Benz and BMW are exploring stockpiles and alternatives to mitigate the threat, while EU leaders push for diversification. The move highlights China’s leverage in global trade tensions and its dominance in critical minerals vital to green and high-tech industries.
The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50 percent, citing national security concerns and the protection of domestic producers. The move has drawn sharp criticism from key trading partners like Canada and Mexico, as well as from U.S. industries reliant on metal imports. While praised by American steelmakers, the tariffs risk raising consumer prices and disrupting international supply chains.
Private equity investors are increasingly turning to Europe’s defense sector as military spending rises and ESG norms shift. Interest is growing in areas like space technology, especially in Germany, where recent investment programs are boosting appeal. Despite this momentum, overall private equity dealmaking remains sluggish amid recession fears and tight liquidity.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.51% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Inflation in the eurozone fell to 1.9% in May, dropping below the European Central Bank’s target of 2.0%, according to preliminary data from Eurostat. Core inflation decreased from 2.7% to 2.3%. Analysts anticipate no impact on the ECB’s planned interest rate cut on Thursday.
According to Statistics Netherlands, the annual inflation rate in the Netherlands fell to 3.3 percent in May, following a previous increase to 4.1 percent in April. On a monthly basis, prices decreased by 0.5 percent.
Switzerland experienced a decline in consumer prices in May, decreasing by 0.1% from the previous year, marking the first instance of negative inflation in over four years. This decrease was primarily driven by a reduction in import prices.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.52% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
China’s manufacturing sector contracted sharply in May, with the Caixin PMI plunging to 48.3—its lowest since September 2022—underscoring weakening global demand amid renewed U.S. tariff pressure. Export orders fell at their highest pace in nearly a year, while domestic demand softened, and employment declined. Despite temporary tariff pauses and modest policy easing by Beijing, deflationary pressures, a deepening property slump, and sluggish consumer spending continue to weigh on the economy. Analysts warn that without bold reforms, particularly to stimulate consumption, China may struggle to regain stable momentum in the face of both internal and external headwinds.
U.S. manufacturing sentiment continued to deteriorate in May, with the ISM index signalling a third straight month of contraction as companies cited rising costs and operational disruption from shifting trade policies. The unpredictable tariff landscape, including sudden increases and reversals, is eroding business confidence and squeezing profit margins—particularly in sectors like chemicals and paper. The dollar slid to near three-year lows against sterling, reflecting mounting investor concern over the economic fallout and fiscal sustainability, while rising Treasury yields hint at growing unease over U.S. debt levels amid expansive budget plans.
U.S. stock futures edged lower Tuesday morning following a strong start to June, as renewed trade tensions between the U.S., China, and the EU weighed on sentiment. Despite geopolitical friction and tariff threats, markets managed to close higher Monday, buoyed by investor optimism and seasonal tailwinds. Analysts pointed to historically strong performance in early summer as a reason for staying invested, even amid ongoing volatility. Meanwhile, cybersecurity ETFs hit all-time highs, and investors are now turning their attention to upcoming corporate earnings and key economic data releases for further direction.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.52% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Trump announced he will double steel tariffs to 50%, citing protection for the U.S. industry, while accusing China of violating a trade deal. Meanwhile, his broader tariff agenda faces legal challenges: a trade court blocked them, but a federal appeals court issued a temporary stay. The White House is prepared to take the case to the Supreme Court if needed, signaling continued commitment to Trump’s tariff strategy.
The AEX rose 0.6% last week, supported by strong Nvidia earnings, despite renewed concerns over U.S. trade policy. President Trump threatened new tariffs but then partially backed down, fuelling continued market volatility. Analysts increasingly refer to the “TACO trade”—”Trump Always Chickens Out”—reflecting his pattern of retracting aggressive tariff threats.
The upcoming trading week focuses on key economic events, including U.S. job data and the ECB’s expected 25 basis point rate cut. Eurozone inflation figures and the Fed’s Beige Book will also be in the spotlight. Investors are hoping these data releases will offer more clarity on future monetary policy in both the U.S. and Europe.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.50% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday. During the meeting, Powell emphasized the central bank’s independence. They discussed economic developments such as growth, employment, and inflation, but Powell did not comment on monetary policy expectations. He reiterated that future policy decisions will be based on incoming economic data. Powell assured Trump that the Fed follows the law and bases its decisions solely on careful, objective, and non-political analysis.
Pending home sales in the U.S. fell sharply in April, with the index dropping 6.3% from the previous month to 71.3, according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists had expected only a 1.0% decline. The index is now well below the historical average of 100. Compared to April last year, pending sales dropped 2.5%. The index tracks signed contracts for existing homes, but the sales have not yet been finalized.
U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels last week, much more than the expected 0.6 million, reaching 440.4 million barrels, according to the EIA. Gasoline inventories also dropped sharply by 2.4 million barrels to 223.1 million, compared to an expected 0.3 million decline. Heating oil and diesel inventories fell by 0.7 million barrels. Refinery capacity utilization decreased from 90.7% to 90.2%, lower than the expected 91.5%.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.04% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.50% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US stocks rose after President Trump delayed proposed EU tariffs and signaled progress in trade talks. Markets were buoyed by a rebound in consumer confidence and strong gains in tech and cyclical sectors. European indexes also climbed as optimism grew that steep tariffs would be avoided.
US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May after five months of decline, driven by eased tensions in US-China trade relations. The expectations index saw its biggest monthly jump since 2009, reflecting renewed optimism about business, jobs, and income. Despite lingering concerns over tariffs, consumers showed increased hope that trade deals could support the economy.
Japanese bond yields fell sharply Tuesday following signals that the Finance Ministry is seeking to dampen market turmoil. An unusual survey of market participants indicated a possible drop in long-term bond issuance. The relief rally worked its way into global bond markets as concerns about Japan’s budget deficit and debt position continue to flare.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.51% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
China’s industrial profits continued to rebound in April, rising 3% year-on-year and signalling resilience in the face of U.S. tariffs and deflationary pressures. The growth, driven by high-tech and equipment manufacturing, reflects the impact of Beijing’s targeted policy support for private and small businesses. Despite a recent spike in tariffs — briefly reaching 145% before easing to 51.1% following a trade truce — China’s industrial sector has adapted by shifting exports and maintaining output growth. The macroeconomic picture remains mixed, with industrial momentum gaining but retail sales lagging, highlighting ongoing demand-side challenges.
U.S. stock futures surged after a delay in planned 50% tariffs on the European Union, offering a short-term reprieve from escalating trade tensions. Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures all rose nearly 1%, rebounding after last week’s broad market losses driven by tariff fears. The postponed deadline (to July 9) eased immediate investor concerns, boosting market sentiment despite ongoing uncertainty around U.S.-EU trade relations and upcoming economic data. Analysts noted that while the delay is welcome, broader macroeconomic risks—like slowing consumer confidence and Federal Reserve commentary—still loom large.
UK food inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month in May, reaching 2.8% year-on-year, as rising costs for fresh produce—especially red meat—pushed prices higher. While overall shop prices remained in deflation at -0.1%, thanks to falling non-food prices, underlying pressures are building. Retailers are facing mounting cost burdens from higher national insurance contributions, minimum wage increases, and upcoming packaging taxes, which could soon be passed on to consumers. This comes amid a broader surge in UK inflation, now at a 3.5% annual rate, driven by rising utility and tax bills—adding to concerns over household purchasing power and the macroeconomic outlook.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.55% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
