European Union leaders discussed new proposals from the United States on reaching a trade deal at a summit in Brussels on Thursday, with time running out for the bloc to find a common position before a tariff respite expires on July 9. Most countries seem to favour a quick deal to avoid further tariffs and compensate for disadvantages with redistribution measures. Germany and Belgium expressed support for the Commission’s efforts to swiftly reach a deal, warning that a trade war would harm both sides. Currently, EU exports face significant US tariffs, with further increases threatened by President Trump if no deal is reached by his July 9 deadline.
Trade negotiations between India and the US have stalled due to disagreements over tariffs on auto parts, steel, and agricultural products. India wants proposed tariffs reversed and existing ones reduced, but US negotiators have yet to agree. Hopes for a deal before Trump’s July 9 deadline have faded.
Chinese car manufacturers, including BYD, Chery Auto, and Great Wall Motor, are turning to Africa to expand, focusing on electric and hybrid vehicles. Challenges include low incomes, high import duties, unreliable electricity, and limited charging infrastructure. Nonetheless, these companies aim to use low prices and their foothold in South Africa as a springboard to conquer broader African markets.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.04% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.57% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. consumer confidence fell in June as concerns over high tariffs and inflation remained prominent. Expectations for business conditions and job availability declined, with optimism about future income also weakening. Labor market sentiment slipped amid fewer openings and rising unemployment claims.
Gold prices steadied after a recent drop, as easing Middle East tensions reduced haven demand. Prices hovered between recent highs and lows following months of gains driven by geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and central bank buying.
U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, steepening the yield curve to levels not seen since 2021. 30-year yields rose about 2 basis points while five-year yields were little changed, pushing the yield gap to its widest since 2021. Traders continue to bet on falling short-term rates while remaining cautious about long-term debt pressures.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.04% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.57% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The World Steel Association announced yesterday that 158.8 million tons of steel were produced globally in May, representing a decrease of 3.8 percent compared to the same period last year. China, the largest producer, experienced a 6.9 percent drop in production compared to May 2024, while Germany reported a reduction of 6.4 percent. The United States and India, however, recorded increases in their steel production of 1.7 percent and nearly 10 percent, respectively.
German entrepreneurs are more optimistic about the future in June compared to May, according to figures published yesterday by the Ifo Institute. The composite index for trade and industry sentiment reached 88.4, while economists had predicted 88.0. The subindex for current business conditions rose from 86.1 to 86.2, whereas the subindex for business expectations significantly increased from 89.0 to 90.7.
In the first quarter of 2025, the Dutch economy demonstrated stronger growth than initially expected, according to new figures from Statistics Netherlands. The quarterly growth reached 0.4 percent, exceeding the earlier estimate of 0.1 percent. The CBS attributed this revision to positive corrections in the trade surplus and household consumption. The annual growth rate of 2.2 percent also exceeded the previously anticipated 2.0 percent.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.04% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.56% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Figures from CBS and the Land Registry revealed yesterday that house prices in the Netherlands increased by approximately 10% in May. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.6%. The average selling price for an existing home was 471,875 euros in May.
Yesterday, the preliminary purchasing managers’ index from S&P Global and Jibun Bank indicated that the Japanese industrial sector experienced growth again in June. The composite index rose from 50.2 in May to 51.4 in June, partly due to accelerated growth in the services sector.
Preliminary data from S&P Global indicated that the French industry contracted more sharply in June, while the services sector also experienced a decline. The composite index dropped from 49.3 in May to 48.5, with the industry index falling from 49.8 to 47.8, marking the lowest level in four months.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.04% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.53% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices are expected to rise after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites, raising fears of Iranian retaliation, especially targeting energy infrastructure or the vital Strait of Hormuz. Analysts predict higher oil prices regardless of Iran’s immediate response, with further spikes possible if the conflict escalates. While oil supply remains stable for now, markets are bracing for increased volatility and geopolitical risk.
Dutch pension funds are reducing their investments in U.S. dollars due to the currency’s weakness and political uncertainty under President Trump. They are also exploring ways to lessen exposure to the American market. Potential new taxes on dividends and criticism of ESG standards make U.S. investments less appealing. Currency hedging is being prioritized as a quicker, less disruptive adjustment than selling U.S. stocks.
The upcoming trading week will be dominated by Middle East tensions after US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, which President Trump called a “spectacular success” while warning of further action. Markets are bracing for uncertainty, especially if Iran retaliates and disrupts oil exports or global shipping. Key events include a NATO summit in The Hague, Jerome Powell’s testimony in Congress, and various economic indicators.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.54% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Swiss central bank has cut interest rates to zero in an effort to curb the sharp appreciation of the franc. The SNB lowered the policy rate from 0.25 to 0.00 percent. This marked the sixth consecutive cut. In March 2024, the rate was still at 1.75 percent. Thursday’s decision did not come as a surprise. With this move, the policy rate is once again approaching negative territory — a situation Switzerland experienced for eight years until September 2022. Switzerland is struggling with a strong franc, as investors increasingly view the currency as a safe haven amid trade uncertainty and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Swiss central bank also lowered its short-term inflation outlook.
The Bank of England held interest rates steady at 4.25 percent on Thursday, as expected. In May, the Bank Rate was cut by 25 basis points to its current level. According to the BoE, global uncertainty remains high.
The Turkish central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 46 percent on Thursday, according to its latest interest rate decision. Lending rates were also maintained. Policymakers observed a decline in core inflation in May and expect that downward trend to continue in June. Recent second-quarter figures show that domestic demand is slowing, possibly due to recent geopolitical developments and the trade war. The Turkish central bank aims to maintain a tight monetary policy for the time being until price stability is achieved through lower inflation. The medium-term inflation target currently stands at five percent.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.55% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady amid growing division over future cuts, as officials weigh rising inflation risks against slowing economic growth. Uncertainty from new tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and global conflicts has clouded the outlook, prompting a continued wait-and-see approach. Projections reveal deep disagreement among policymakers, with some expecting no further cuts while others still see room to lower rates this year.
Foreign demand for US government debt stayed near record highs in April despite recent market volatility and tariff-related concerns. Net foreign holdings dipped only slightly, driven by private-sector sales while government accounts continued buying longer-term securities. Shifts among various international investors highlighted ongoing skepticism about fiscal and trade policies without triggering a broad exodus.
India’s market regulator has eased disclosure rules for foreign investors exclusively buying government bonds, citing their low-risk nature. It also approved measures to simplify delisting for certain state-owned firms and clarified rules around startup founders retaining stock options post-listing. These changes aim to boost foreign investment and streamline corporate regulations.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.52% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The German research institute (ZEW, Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) revealed yesterday that the ZEW index, which measures economic sentiment, has further increased in June. The expectations index rose from 25.2 in May to 47.5 this month, while the index for the current situation also improved from -82.0 to -72.0.
Yesterday, the oil price rose significantly as a result of the further escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, combined with President Trump’s call for unconditional surrender by Ayatollah Khamenei. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the futures for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased by 4.3 percent to 74.84 dollars per barrel, while Brent oil ended up 4.4 percent higher at 76.45 dollars.
The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that industrial production in the US decreased by 0.2 percent in May. Capacity utilization also declined, from 77.7 percent in April to 77.4 percent in May, whereas a slight increase of 0.1 percent had previously been observed. The Fed will convene today to discuss monetary policy.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.56% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of Japan announced it will slow the pace of its government bond purchase cuts starting April 2026, while keeping its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.5% amid concerns about economic growth. It plans to reduce bond purchases by 400 billion yen per quarter until March 2026, then ease to 200 billion yen per quarter through March 2027, aiming to stabilize the market and improve bond market functioning. The decision, which met expectations, briefly boosted the Nikkei 225 and strengthened the yen, while pushing up 10-year bond yields.
Gold has surged ahead as the top safe haven in 2025, outshining traditional assets like the U.S. dollar, Treasuries, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc, with prices up 30% year-to-date. Investors are flocking to gold amid growing doubts about fiscal stability, geopolitical tensions, and erratic policymaking—especially in the U.S., where debt concerns and Trump-era tariffs have shaken confidence in Treasurys. Unlike government-backed assets, gold carries no counterparty risk and is valued for being apolitical, liquid, and independent of economic mismanagement. Central banks have reinforced this shift, with gold now overtaking the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset.
Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly lower on Tuesday amid investor caution over the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, following U.S. President Trump’s call for an immediate evacuation of Tehran and his early exit from the G7 summit. Despite geopolitical jitters, analysts including Fitch and Lombard Odier believe the confrontation will remain limited and short-lived. Still, uncertainty and rising energy costs could weigh on growth and inflation. Japan’s Nikkei rose modestly after the Bank of Japan held rates steady and signalled slower bond purchase cuts, while markets in China, South Korea, Australia, and India mostly declined.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.56% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The upcoming trading week is focused on the U.S. interest rate decision, with the Fed expected to hold rates steady despite White House pressure to cut them. Other central banks including Japan’s, the UK’s, and China’s also convene to discuss monetary policy, while escalating Middle East tensions could further push up oil prices.
The US dollar fell to a three-year low after Donald Trump’s renewed trade threats and rising geopolitical tensions, including with Iran. Weak inflation data further pressured the dollar by increasing expectations of faster rate cuts from the Fed, while the euro strengthened on signs the ECB may soon end its rate-cutting cycle.
Investors are turning to silver and platinum as alternatives to gold and hedges against a weakening dollar, pushing both metals up over 10% this month. With concerns that gold is overvalued and supply shortages looming, silver has hit a 13-year high and platinum a four-year high, driven by both industrial and investor demand.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.56% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
