In May, Dutch industrial production rose by 0.8% year-on-year after a 0.6% decline in April, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Half of all industrial sectors produced more than a year earlier. Among the eight largest sectors, machine repair and installation saw the highest growth, while the chemical sector recorded the biggest decline. Adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, production increased 0.5% compared to April. Meanwhile, manufacturer confidence declined in June, mainly due to lower expectations for production and order books.

German inflation eased slightly in June, with consumer prices rising by 2.0% year-on-year, down from 2.1% in May, according to Destatis. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, dropped to 2.7% from 2.8%. Food prices rose 2.0%, while energy prices fell by 3.5%. Compared to May, consumer prices remained stable, matching earlier estimates.

The European Commission has introduced a voluntary code of conduct to help companies comply with the EU’s new AI regulations. The code focuses on transparency, copyright, safety, and security, aiming to set global standards. Although participation is voluntary, non-signatories won’t benefit from legal certainty. The code follows the final draft of the AI Act presented by 13 independent experts. The AI Act includes strict transparency obligations for high-risk AI and lighter rules for general-purpose models. Real-time biometric surveillance in public spaces is limited to specific crimes and terrorism prevention. Rules for general-purpose AI models (GPAI) become binding from August 2, with enforcement for new models starting a year later and existing ones by August 2027.

The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.65% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The U.S. president announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, causing New York futures to spike. Since February, traders had rushed record volumes of copper into the U.S., hoping to beat the tariff’s implementation. The move adds uncertainty to global trade and could raise costs across multiple U.S. industries reliant on copper.

Fears of a sharp U.S. inflation spike tied to tariff threats have eased, with short-term expectations holding steady at 3% since January. The annual U.S. inflation rate is at 2.4%, just above the Fed’s 2% goal, while long-term expectations remain stable. Consumers still foresee significant price hikes in key areas, including 9.3% for medical care and 5.5% for food.

Gold ETFs saw $38 billion in inflows and added 397.1 metric tons in the first half of 2025, marking their largest semi-annual rise since early 2020. The surge followed years of outflows and was driven by renewed investor demand amid political and economic uncertainty. This active first half comes after a modest net inflow in 2024, which ended a three-year period of outflows triggered by high interest rates.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.02% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

President Trump announced steep new tariffs of 25–40% on 14 countries, effective August 1, yet global markets responded calmly. Key Asian indices and European shares posted gains, as investors bet on Trump softening his stance, reviving the so-called “TACO” trade (“Trump Always Chickens Out”). Although the uncertainty has been extended, markets seem reassured by the possibility of exemptions and ongoing trade talks—particularly with the EU, which has not yet received a tariff letter. Analysts note the new tariffs could raise the effective U.S. import rate to 17.3%, but expect muted consumer price impact.

China’s producer prices fell 3.6% year-on-year in June, the steepest drop in nearly two years, as aggressive price competition and sluggish consumer demand deepen deflationary pressures. While consumer prices edged up 0.1%—marking the first positive reading in five months—economists warn the rebound is fragile, driven largely by short-term subsidies. Core inflation rose to 0.7%, but overcapacity and ongoing price wars continue to weigh on profitability, with industrial profits down 9.1% in May. Policymakers criticized unsustainable discounting and signalled tighter regulation, though Beijing remains cautious about large-scale stimulus as it waits to see how export dynamics evolve.

New U.S. tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea are piling pressure on two of Asia’s most export-reliant economies, both of which saw GDP contract in Q1. Exports accounted for 22% of Japan’s and 44% of South Korea’s GDP in 2023. The U.S.—their largest versus second-largest export markets respectively—imported $145.8 billion in goods from Japan and $127.8 billion from South Korea in 2024. Existing tariffs on autos and steel have already weighed on growth, and now a 25% rate is being extended or reaffirmed on key goods like automobiles and steel. Japan’s GDP is expected to shrink by 0.1 percentage point by end-2026 due to the new tariffs, with economists warning the country may enter a technical recession if growth stalls further. Meanwhile, South Korea’s central bank slashed its 2025 growth forecast from 1.5% to 0.8%, citing weaker exports.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.02% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.64% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets by holding its policy rate steady at 3.85%, defying expectations of a rate cut, as it seeks further confirmation that inflation is sustainably trending toward its 2.5% target. Despite inflation cooling to 2.1% in May—its lowest level since October 2024—the central bank cited slightly stronger-than-expected data and a cautious outlook amid weakening consumer demand, falling exports, and slower public spending. The decision caused a modest dip in the S&P/ASX 200 and a rebound in the Australian dollar.

The Bank of Japan finds itself at a critical crossroads as it weighs the need to raise interest rates amid persistent inflation against the risk of a deepening slowdown of the economy. Real wages fell 2.9% in May—the sharpest drop in 20 months—despite record nominal wage hikes, highlighting how inflation is eroding household purchasing power. With the economy contracting in Q1 and U.S. tariff threats looming, the BOJ’s long-sought “virtuous cycle” of wage-led inflation is proving fragile. Analysts are split on the path forward: while some see rising prices as reason to hike rates and strengthen the yen, others argue the BOJ should hold steady to avoid further straining growth.

The euro is gaining global prominence as political and fiscal uncertainty in the U.S.—including rising tariffs, concerns over Federal Reserve independence, and a ballooning deficit—erode confidence in the dollar. Despite recent ECB rate cuts, the euro has surged 14% against the dollar in 2025, buoyed by expectations of EU fiscal expansion and investor demand for stable alternatives. Central bankers at the Aix-en-Provence forum emphasized that while the euro won’t dethrone the dollar overnight, it is increasingly viewed as a credible reserve currency, especially if the EU continues deepening financial integration and capital markets reform.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.03% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.60% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Scott Bessent, economic adviser to Trump, warned that US tariffs will return to Trump’s high April levels if countries don’t strike trade deals soon. Only the UK, China, and Vietnam have reached agreements so far, leaving others, like the EU and Japan, at risk. The Trump administration plans to send warnings and impose tariffs as early as August 1 if talks stall.

The EU will store critical materials like rare earths and cable repair kits to prepare for threats such as cyberattacks, climate change, and conflict. Member states are urged to coordinate essential supplies and work with NATO and the private sector. The plan is part of a broader effort to boost EU security and resilience.

OPEC+ surprised markets by boosting oil production, aiming to lower fuel prices and support lower summer demand, in line with Trump’s push for cheaper energy. While Saudi Arabia remains confident, analysts warn this could lead to an oversupply and falling prices by year-end. The move helps consumers but may hurt producers, including US shale and Saudi Arabia itself, which needs high prices to fund its budget.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.03% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.58% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The U.S. trade deficit rose sharply in May, driven by a significant drop in exports while imports remained stable. The deficit increased by 18.7% to $71.5 billion. Exports fell by 4.0% to $279.0 billion, while imports remained unchanged at $350.5 billion. The U.S. trade deficit with the European Union was $22.5 billion, and with China, it stood at $14.0 billion.

The U.S. labor market added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Markets had expected 110,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. May’s job growth was revised from 139,000 to 144,000, and April’s from 147,000 to 158,000. The labor force participation rate remained at 62.3%, and average hourly earnings rose by $0.08 to $36.30, marking annual wage growth of 3.7%, down from 3.9% in May. This positive report follows a surprisingly weak ADP report, which showed a loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June.

The eurozone services PMI rose from 49.7 in May to 50.5 in June, reaching a three-month high, indicating modest growth. The manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 49.4 to 49.5, the highest level in 34 months. As a result, the composite PMI rose from 50.2 to 50.6. Despite this improvement, economists remain cautious about a strong recovery in the European services sector. Expectations for the next 12 months have improved but remain below the long-term average. Rising service sector prices and input costs are a concern for the ECB, though the strong euro and deflationary effects of U.S. import tariffs may ease these concerns. A PMI above 50 signals growth; below 50 signals contraction.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.03% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.58% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

UK markets tumbled as investor concerns over fiscal stability intensified, triggered by political uncertainty surrounding the finance chief’s future. Ten-year gilt yields surged 16 basis points to 4.61%, while 30-year yields climbed over 20 basis points, and the pound sank below $1.36. The sharp reaction echoes past selloffs tied to skepticism over the country’s debt trajectory and economic outlook.

Emerging market debt issuance surged to over $190 billion in the first half of 2025, up 20% year-on-year and on track to surpass last year’s record. Middle Eastern issuers led the wave, accounting for over 40% of regional activity amid resilient investor appetite despite geopolitical tensions. A gradual shift away from the U.S. dollar emerged, with more deals in euros, yen, and yuan signaling early signs of de-dollarization.

U.S. private payrolls fell by 33,000 in June, marking the first decline in over two years amid economic uncertainty and slowing job growth. Despite this drop, layoffs remained low, with planned job cuts falling 49% from May and second-quarter cuts down 50% from the first quarter. Hiring slowed across sectors, with 5.5 million hires reported in May and job openings slightly outpacing the number of unemployed.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

According to preliminary figures published yesterday by Eurostat, inflation in the eurozone reached 2.0 percent year-on-year in June, slightly above May’s 1.9 percent. Core inflation remained stable at 2.3 percent compared to the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.3 percent, while core prices rose by 0.4 percent.

Industrial activity in the United Kingdom showed a smaller contraction in June, according to figures published yesterday by S&P Global. The purchasing managers’ index reached 47.7, an increase from 46.4 in May and the highest point in five months. An index value below 50 indicates a decline in activity.

In June, the number of unemployed individuals in Germany was largely stable, according to government figures released yesterday. There were 2.914 million unemployed, compared to 2.919 million the previous month. Adjusted for seasonal influences, the number of unemployed increased by 11,000, while an increase of 15,000 had been expected.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.57% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Canada has postponed the introduction of its Digital Services Tax (DST) at the last minute to avoid jeopardizing trade relations with the US. The tax, aimed at major US tech firms like Amazon and Google, had stalled negotiations. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump will resume talks, aiming for a deal before July 21. Canada prefers a multilateral approach to digital taxation.

Germany’s inflation rate dropped to 2.0% year-on-year in June, slightly below expectations. Food prices rose by 2.0%, while energy prices fell by 3.5%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also declined to 2.7%.

The European Central Bank remains committed to its 2% medium-term inflation target. However, the ECB acknowledges that factors such as geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation, and the growing impact of AI increase uncertainty around price developments. The bank pledged to respond decisively to significant inflation deviations, following criticism of its slow response after the pandemic.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.04% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.61% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Central bankers are warning that household fears of future inflation remain high despite falling current inflation rates, potentially destabilizing inflation expectations. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) highlights that households expect inflation around 8%—far above central bank targets—driven by lingering post-pandemic price shocks, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks. If these expectations lead to behavioral changes, like higher wage demands, central banks may need to respond quickly to prevent a lasting inflation spiral.

Investors are shifting focus from geopolitical tensions to upcoming U.S. economic data and policy developments, including a key employment report and a fiscal bill in Congress. The recent stock rally, driven by easing Middle East tensions and optimism about interest-rate cuts and trade deals, faces new tests as concerns over inflation, labor market weakness, and tariffs resurface. With corporate earnings season approaching, market attention is turning back to economic fundamentals.

Increased defence spending across Europe, driven by NATO’s new 5% GDP goal, could weaken countries’ credit ratings unless offset by spending cuts or higher revenues, according to ratings agency Scope. Countries with high deficits, like France, Belgium, and Italy, face the greatest fiscal pressure. Scope suggests that shifting more defence financing to the EU level could improve sustainability and efficiency through shared funding and procurement.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.04% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.59% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.