Nvidia and AMD have struck an unprecedented deal with the US government, agreeing to hand over 15% of revenues from Chinese sales of their H20 and MI308 chips in exchange for export licences, marking a rare direct revenue-sharing arrangement tied to trade policy. The licences, issued last week after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met President Trump, could unlock an estimated $23bn in 2025 H20 sales to China, based on Bernstein forecasts. The move comes amid heightened US-China trade tensions and internal debate over whether such exports bolster China’s AI and military capabilities. It also signals a shift in Washington’s export control strategy, as the Trump administration seeks to balance security concerns with economic gains ahead of potential trade talks with Beijing.

UK hiring intentions have slumped to record lows, with only 57% of private-sector employers planning to recruit in the next three months, down from 65% a year earlier, as firms absorb a £25bn rise in employer national insurance costs and face economic uncertainty. July saw the sharpest drop in vacancies since April, with starting salaries growing at their lowest pace in over four years, according to surveys by the CIPD, KPMG, and REC. Weak GDP growth, high labour and energy costs, and uncertainty over global tariffs are weighing on business confidence, hitting hospitality, care, and youth employment hardest, while engineering and construction show small pockets of resilience. The Bank of England’s fifth rate cut in a year underscores concerns about economic momentum amid inflation risks.

Hong Kong is seeing a surge in Chinese tech IPO applications after introducing confidential filing rules in May that allow lossmaking technology and biotech firms to undergo regulatory review before publicly declaring flotation plans. High-profile applicants include chipmakers Biren Technology (valued at $2.5bn) and Enflame Technology, AI start-ups Zhipu ($5bn) and MiniMax ($4bn), all seeking to capitalise on Nvidia export controls and Hong Kong’s more flexible fundraising rules compared with mainland exchanges. In the first seven months of 2025, 12 Chinese tech firms applied under Chapter 18C, the highest since its 2023 launch, as the city benefits from a booming equity market, faster approvals, and geopolitical shifts steering listings away from the US and UK.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The Bank of England cut interest rates from 4.25% to 4.00%. The decision followed a historic second vote, after the committee initially failed to reach a majority. Four out of nine members opposed the cut due to concerns over persistent inflation. The final decision passed with a narrow 5–4 majority, after one member revised his stance from supporting a larger rate cut. The Bank reiterated in a statement that future cuts would be gradual and cautious, and hinted that the current rate-cutting cycle may soon end. While inflation is forecasted to rise to 4% — twice the Bank’s target — recent signs of labour market weakness add complexity to the outlook.

In June, German exports increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month, while imports increased more sharply by 4.2%. Year-on-year exports increased by 2.4% while imports increased by 7.9% YoY. The lower export growth was partly caused by lower exports to the U.S. These fell by 2.1% month-on-month and 8.4% year-on-year. Exports to China also decreased by 1.1% month-on-month. Meanwhile, imports from the U.S. surged by 19.8% month-on-month and imports from China rose by 5.8% month-on-month. Germany’s trade surplus fell to €14.9 billion from €18.5 billion in May.

In Q2, labor costs in the U.S. increased by 1.6%, slightly above the expected 1.5%. Labor productivity rose by 2.4%, also beating the forecast of 2.0%. Q1 figures were revised: labor costs rose by 6.9%, while productivity fell by 1.8%.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.60% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The United States has raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50 percent, citing India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. President Trump stated the additional 25 percent tariffs will take effect in 21 days, targeting what he called indirect support for Russia’s war effort. India condemned the move as unfair and emphasized its energy needs for 1.4 billion citizens.

Central European currencies are set to benefit from a weaker US dollar over the next six months, with the Czech crown and Polish zloty expected to hold steady, according to a Reuters poll. The Hungarian forint is forecast to fall 1.7 percent to 405.00 per euro by year-end, while Romania’s leu is seen slipping 0.9 percent to 5.12. Hawkish monetary policies have supported recent strength, but softening inflation and fiscal concerns may weigh on some currencies.

Donald Trump announced a 100 percent tariff on imported semiconductors and chips, exempting companies that build in the United States. The move aims to push more manufacturing onshore, though details on qualifying exemptions remain unclear. Over 130 U.S. chip projects totaling 600 billion dollars have been announced since 2020, including major investments from Apple, TSMC, Nvidia and others.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.63% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

In June, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly, according to figures released yesterday by the US Department of Commerce. Imports fell by 3.7 percent to 337.5 billion dollars, while exports declined by 0.5 percent to 277.3 billion dollars. This resulted in a deficit of 60.2 billion dollars, a 16.0 percent decrease compared to May.

According to data released yesterday by Eurostat, producer prices in the eurozone rose in June. Compared to May, prices increased by 0.8 percent, mainly due to a 3.2 percent rise in energy costs. Excluding energy, core prices decreased by 0.1 percent.

The UK services sector expanded at a slower pace in July, according to data from S&P Global. The services PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.8, while the composite index came in at 51.5. The manufacturing PMI rose to 48.0, its highest level in six months.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.61% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.1% year-on-year in Q2, beating market expectations and marking its fastest expansion since mid-2023. The robust growth—well above the 4.8% forecast—was driven by strong manufacturing performance and frontloaded export orders as global buyers rushed to avoid potential U.S. tariffs. Exports of palm oil, base metals, and pharmaceuticals increased, while domestic demand remained resilient. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 4.0%. While Bank Indonesia maintained a growth forecast of 4.6% to 5.4% for 2025, the upbeat data strengthens the outlook amid external trade pressures.

Amid U.S. President Trump’s threat to “substantially” raise tariffs, India defended its imports of Russian oil as a vital economic measure, noting that 39% of its crude imports now come from Russia—up from just 2.5% before the Ukraine war. India argued its purchases helped stabilize global oil prices, citing previous U.S. encouragement to do so. Meanwhile, India highlighted that EU-Russia trade totaled over €84.7 billion in 2024—exceeding India’s own trade with Moscow—calling out Western “double standards” and warning that targeting India could disrupt global trade and energy security.

July’s U.S. jobs report revealed a stark deceleration in labor market momentum, with payrolls rising by only 73,000 and the three-month average sinking to 35,000—just a third of last year’s pace. President Trump denounced the data as “rigged,” but markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 and Stoxx Europe 600 both gaining on Monday. Analysts caution this may be a technical bounce rather than true optimism, especially with Trump’s new tariffs set to take effect August 7. The combination of weak labor data and trade tensions could pose broader risks to economic sentiment and capital flows.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.61% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Switzerland has responded with surprise to the announcement of a 39% US tariff on Swiss products because, according to Swiss President Keller-Sutter, “a favorable trade agreement” was reached earlier. Both U.S. officials and Swiss business leaders, including the CEO of watchmaker Breitling, blame the pharmaceutical sector for allegedly irritating Trump by, while Switzerland is uncertain how to repair the economic relationship.

Opec+ will again increase oil production in September by 548,000 barrels per day to regain market share, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump is reportedly considering additional import tariffs on Russian oil, which could drive up oil prices.

While Big Tech and major banks are reporting strong earnings, much of the U.S. economy is showing signs of stress as Trump’s aggressive tariffs drive up costs for consumer and industrial companies. In total, 52 per cent of the S&P 500 companies to have posted results have reported declining profit margins, according to Société Générale.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The US will impose a 15% tariff on EU wine and spirits starting August 1, while talks between the US and EU continue. Although the EU secured exemptions for certain products such as aircraft parts and cork, wine and spirits are not included and will be affected by the tariffs. The European Commission also warned that a joint EU-US trade statement may be delayed due to ongoing negotiations.

According to figures released yesterday by Germany’s Federal Statistical Office, Destatis, consumer price growth in July remained unchanged from the previous month, with an annual increase of 2.0 percent. Core inflation remained stable at 2.7 percent, while food prices rose slightly and energy became cheaper.

New unemployment claims in the US rose slightly to 218,000 last week, indicating a stable but cooling labor market as laid-off workers struggle to find new jobs. Economists cite hiring hesitation due to tariff uncertainty and reduced labor supply from immigration policies, while the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but warned of risks to employment.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates stable at 4.25%–4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with two governors dissenting in favor of a cut, the first dual dissent since 1993. Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave no indication of a possible rate change in September, citing uncertainty over the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs. Political pressure is mounting, as President Trump continues to demand rate cuts while Congress questions both its broader independence and the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation project of its headquarters.

President Trump signed an executive order imposing 50% tariffs on Brazil, citing an economic emergency, despite the U.S. having a $6.8 billion trade surplus with Brazil last year. Separately, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting Friday, criticizing India for stalled trade talks and arms purchases from Russia. He also warned of an unspecified “penalty” and confirmed that 15% is now the minimum tariff for countries without trade deals.

US GDP rebounded with 3% annualized growth in Q2 after a 0.5% contraction in Q1, outpacing the 2.6% consensus. The surge largely reflected a drop in imports, even as private domestic purchases growth slowed to 1.2% from 1.9%, its weakest pace since 2022. Economists warn that policy uncertainty, tariff‑driven inflation pressures, and tighter immigration constraints may be masking an underlying economic cooling.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The IMF raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy yesterday in the latest World Economic Outlook. It now anticipates growth of 1.9 percent in 2025 and 2.0 percent in 2026. According to the IMF, eased trade relations with China and fiscal stimuli are contributing to the improved growth outlook.

In June, Dutch producer prices were 0.2 percent lower than a year earlier, partly due to a decline of approximately 21 percent in crude oil prices. Compared to May, prices rose by 0.4 percent. Foreign market prices increased by 0.3 percent, while domestic market prices rose by 0.4 percent.

In May, the rise in home prices in U.S. cities continued to slow, according to figures released yesterday by S&P Case-Shiller. Higher mortgage rates and weaker demand are contributing to price stagnation. Compared to a year earlier, prices in the top 10 and top 20 metropolitan areas rose by 3.4 and 2.8 percent respectively, down from 4.1 and 3.4 percent in April and 4.8 and 4.1 percent in March.

The 6M Euribor increased with 5 basis points to 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Chinese AI firms are accelerating innovation with cheaper, more efficient models, echoing the disruptive impact of DeepSeek. Startup Z.ai unveiled its open-source GLM 4.5 model, which uses “agentic AI” to break tasks into subtasks for greater accuracy. The model is half the size of DeepSeek’s and runs on just eight Nvidia H20 chips—hardware designed for China amid U.S. export controls. Z.ai aims to undercut competitors, charging just $0.11 per million input tokens and $0.28 per million output tokens, far below DeepSeek’s rates. Backed by Alibaba and Tencent, Z.ai has raised over $1.5 billion and is reportedly eyeing an IPO in Greater China. Its launch follows similar moves by Alibaba and Tencent, highlighting the rapid growth of China’s open-source AI ecosystem despite U.S. restrictions.

India has overtaken China as the largest exporter of smartphones to the U.S., according to Canalys, as supply chains shift away from Beijing amid tariff uncertainty. In Q2, India accounted for 44% of U.S. smartphone imports—up from just 13% a year earlier—while China’s share plunged to 25% from 61%. The surge is largely driven by Apple, which is accelerating iPhone production in India, aiming to manufacture about a quarter of all iPhones there in coming years. Other brands like Samsung and Motorola are also moving some assembly to India, though on a smaller scale. The shift highlights growing “last mile” assembly in India as manufacturers diversify away from China, despite Apple still relying on China’s mature infrastructure for its premium models.

The EU is investing billions to build “gigawatt” AI factories, aiming to close the gap with the U.S. and China in artificial intelligence. With €10 billion already committed for 13 AI factories and a further €20 billion earmarked for gigafactories, Brussels hopes to boost computing power, data access and research capacity in one integrated ecosystem. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has called these facilities a cornerstone of a new “industrial revolution.” The first EU AI factory will go live in the coming weeks, with a major project launching in Munich in September. Each gigafactory could cost €3–5 billion and require up to a gigawatt of power, raising questions about grid capacity and private sector funding. Officials say the goal is to enhance Europe’s technological sovereignty, though analysts warn success will depend on sustained investment and viable business models.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.05% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business da

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In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.