Germany’s economy shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter, a sharper decline than initially estimated, mainly due to weak manufacturing and investment. Economists warn that a substantial recovery is unlikely before 2026, though upcoming fiscal expansion and lower ECB interest rates may bring modest support. The government stresses the need for deep structural reforms to boost growth.
Private equity funds are struggling to raise new capital, collecting just $592 million in the year to June, which is the lowest level in seven years. Despite offering fee discounts and favourable terms, investor appetite has weakened, partly because funds are locked in existing investments and returns are delayed. European-focused funds are holding up better than those targeting the US, where inflows have fallen sharply.
Starting September 1, Canada will remove billions of dollars in tariffs on US goods in an effort to ease trade tensions with Washington. Prime Minister Mark Carney said that over 85% of Canada-US trade will be tariff-free, though duties on steel and aluminium will remain in place. The decision comes after months of trade frictions sparked by Trump’s import measures, with both sides expressing willingness to continue talks.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The EU and the US clarified details of last month’s trade deal. Tariffs on key sectors such as cars, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and wood will be capped at 15%, lower than previously threatened levels (up to 100% for chips and 30% for cars). Some products, like natural resources not found in the US, aircraft, and generic medicines, will only face the standard WTO tariff. In return, EU exports face a general 15% tariff, while US industrial goods can enter the EU tariff-free, and certain American agricultural products may get preferential treatment. The EU also plans significant investments in US energy, AI chips, and possibly defence purchases, though most remain intentions.
France’s economy showed signs of stabilizing in August. The manufacturing PMI rose from 48.2 to 49.9, the highest in almost three years, against expectations of decline. The services PMI also improved to 49.7 from 48.9. The composite index reached 49.8 (from 48.6), still below the growth threshold of 50. Analysts note improvement but warn there is no clear turnaround yet.
Consumer confidence in the eurozone decreased in August, falling from -14.7 to -15.5 according to the European Commission’s preliminary data. Confidence remains well below the long-term average.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.71% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
UK inflation rose to 3.8 percent in July, above forecasts of 3.7 percent and the highest since early last year, driven by record air fare increases, higher fuel prices and rising food costs. Core inflation also stood at 3.8 percent while services inflation climbed to 5 percent, raising concerns over sticky price pressures. The data reduces the likelihood of further Bank of England rate cuts this year, with inflation expected to peak near 4 percent in September before easing gradually through 2026.
Oil prices rose after US inventories fell by 6 million barrels, with WTI trading near 63 dollars and Brent near 67 dollars. Meanwhile, crude stockpiles at the key Cushing hub rose to 23.5 million barrels, marking a seventh straight weekly increase. Traders are watching ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine while longer term forecasts remain bearish with futures down over 10 percent this year.
India’s central bank kept the repo rate at 5.50% in August after cutting 100 basis points earlier this year, with GDP growth projected at 6.5%. Retail inflation fell to its lowest in eight years in July driven by food prices, though core inflation remains above 4%. Policymakers flagged rising global tariffs, including a 50% US duty on Indian exports from August 27, as a major risk to growth.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The annual inflation rate in Canada fell to 1.7% in July from 1.9% the previous month, mainly due to lower gasoline prices, Statistics Canada reported. Gasoline costs dropped 16.1% year-on-year, while food and housing prices continued to rise. Excluding fuel, the consumer price index increased 2.5% in July.
In the United States, the number of newly started housing projects increased in July, despite a decline in issued permits. According to data from the Department of Commerce, 1.358 million housing units were started, a rise of 5.2 percent compared to June and 12.9 percent more than a year earlier.
Youth unemployment in China climbed to 17.8% in July for 16- to 24-year-olds, excluding students, up from 14.5% in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The jobless rate among 25- to 29-year-olds also inched higher to 6.9%, while unemployment for those aged 30 to 59 declined slightly to 3.9%.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.69% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Brazil’s central bank is keeping its benchmark rate at 15%, the highest in nearly 20 years, while it evaluates whether this level is sufficient to bring inflation down to the 3% target. Economic policy director Diogo Guillen said rates will likely remain unchanged for a prolonged period, despite recent softer inflation data. He noted that inflation expectations remain unanchored and that economic growth is slowing as a result of past monetary tightening.
Oil prices closed higher on Monday as U.S. President Trump met with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and voiced optimism about a possible end to the war with Russia. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 1% to $63.42 per barrel, while Brent gained 1.1% to $66.60. Analysts, however, warned that Trump’s tariffs could weaken demand in the coming months while OPEC continues raising output, pointing to potential future pressure on prices despite current geopolitical risks.
European exports face significant challenges due to both U.S. trade barriers and increasing competition from China. Exports to the U.S. and China decreased over 10% in June compared with last year. European companies are struggling to find alternative markets, while imports from China rose by 16.7%. Industries such as chemicals are particularly affected, as high energy costs combined with the influx of cheaper Chinese goods have even forced some factories in the Netherlands to close.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The dollar steadied as traders trimmed odds of a 50bp September cut, with futures pricing 85% for a 25bp move after firm PPI and retail sales. EUR/USD hovered around 1.1704 and USD/JPY 147.37. Near term focus is on Monday’s Trump–Zelenskiy meeting in Washington and Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole (21–23 Aug), discussing monetary policy.
Singapore’s exports fell 4.6% y/y in July after a revised +12.9% in June, with electronics still rising (+2.8%) while non-electronics dropped (-6.6%) with larger drops for pharmaceuticals (-18.9%) and petrochemicals (-23.4%). Shipments to the US (-42.7%), China and Indonesia declined, while exports to the EU, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong increased. The government lifted its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%–2.5% on stronger results in the first half year.
Oil prices decreased as supply-risk premia faded, with the price of Brent around $65.8/bbl and WTI near $62.7/bbl after President Trump backed away from tougher curbs on Russian exports. With Zelenskiy’s Washington talks in focus, headline risk remains elevated, but for now the market is pricing a lower disruption probability.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US wholesale prices rose by 0.9% in July, exceeding expectations due to higher costs for goods and services. This surge has effectively eliminated the chances of a larger 0.5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with markets now expecting a 0.25% cut next month and another in October. The increase in services inflation raises concerns for Fed policymakers, suggesting inflation could be more persistent. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent initially pushed for a bigger cut, he now supports starting with a smaller one.
The eurozone economy grew by 0.1% in Q2 2025 compared to the previous quarter, matching earlier estimates but slowing from 0.6% growth in Q1. On an annual basis, GDP rose 1.4%, slightly below the 1.5% growth in Q1, also in line with earlier estimates.
Norges Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 4.25% but signalled a likely rate cut later in 2025 if the economy evolves as expected. As inflation is persistent, the central bank still sees the need for restrictive monetary policy. Economic projections remain broadly unchanged since June, when the bank surprised markets by cutting rates by 0.25 percentage points amid faster-than-expected inflation decline.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US stocks rose on Wednesday with the Dow Jones gaining over 450 points or more than 1 percent while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added about 0.3 percent and 0.1 percent. The gains came after inflation for July rose less than expected, fuelling investor confidence. Traders have now fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September with growing bets on a larger 50 basis point move.
Global ex-US equity funds attracted $13.6 billion in July, their biggest inflow since December 2021, while US focused funds lost $6.3 billion for a third month in a row. Gains of 19% in Europe and 14% in Asia this year have surpassed the S&P 500’s 7.2% rise. A 10% drop in the dollar and lower price to earnings ratios in markets excluding US are drawing more investors to these markets.
Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.4% to a record 43,309.62, up 7.5% since August 4, while the broader Topix rose 1% to an all-time high of 3,097.94, both marking six straight sessions of gains. The rally followed record closes on Wall Street after July inflation data lifted expectations of a US rate cut next month. Tech shares led the advance, though a stronger yen curbed some momentum.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.64% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key interest rate to 3.60 percent after inflation fell to 2.1 percent in the second quarter, the lowest level in more than three years. The move comes amid weaker-than-expected economic growth and a downward revision of the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7 percent, while U.S. import tariffs continue to put additional pressure on trade conditions.
US inflation was 2.7% in July, matching June’s rate despite Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. Petrol prices fell 9.5% over the past year, while core inflation rose from 2.9% in June to 3.1%. Futures markets now price in about a 95% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
Confidence in the German economy declined sharply in August, according to recent figures from the ZEW institute. Expectations dropped significantly from 52.7 to 34.7, while the assessment of the current situation also worsened, falling from -59.5 to -68.6.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.69% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
President Donald Trump has postponed the increase in U.S. import tariffs on Chinese goods until November 9, delaying today’s planned increase to 80–85%. The 90-day extension allows more time for trade talks and a potential meeting with Xi Jinping later this year. Previous discussions in Sweden between the two nations were constructive.
Oil prices rose slightly on Monday after a sharp drop last week. The drop was prompted by expectations of a meeting between the US and Russian presidents in Alaska. A potential Ukraine peace deal could lift sanctions on Russian oil, increasing the risk of oversupply. Analysts also highlight OPEC’s production hike, global tariff risks, and economic slowdown as key market factors.
President Donald Trump announced that the US will not impose tariffs on imported gold, ending several days of market uncertainty. His statement came after a US customs ruling on new duties for traded gold bars had sent prices to record highs. Following Trump’s post, spot gold prices decreased with 1.2 percent to $3,357 and futures gold prices fell sharply with a decrease of 2.5 percent to $3,407.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.65% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
