Russian President Vladimir Putin warned yesterday that U.S. pressure on countries such as India and China to scale back their energy ties with Moscow could prove counterproductive. He argued that higher tariffs would drive up global prices and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated, ultimately slowing down the U.S. economy.

According to figures released yesterday by Eurostat, unemployment in the eurozone inched up to 6.3 percent in August, compared to 6.2 percent the previous month. In the Netherlands, the jobless rate stood at 3.9 percent, while unemployment in Belgium remained unchanged at 5.8 percent.

During the General Financial Reviews, the Dutch House of Representatives decided to cut taxes for low-income workers by €600 million, while middle- and higher-income groups will face higher taxes. This is the final adjustment to the budget before the parliament goes into recess until the elections.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.67% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

China is rapidly transitioning to sustainable energy and emerging as the world’s leading exporter of green technology, including electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels. This expansion boosts its global influence, while Europe struggles with dependency and the U.S. retreats from climate leadership, giving China a strategic edge in shaping the future energy landscape.

Eurozone inflation rose to 2.2% in September, surpassing the European Central Bank’s target for the first time since April. Analysts believe this supports the ECB’s cautious approach and signals the end of its rate-cutting cycle, with official interest rates likely to remain unchanged.

UK house prices rose by 0.5% in September, exceeding expectations and caused by low unemployment, rising wages, and strong household finances. Despite concerns over upcoming tax hikes, the housing market remains resilient, with semi-detached homes showing the strongest growth.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

In 2025, major energy companies plan further layoffs due to weak oil prices and industry consolidation. Brent crude has fallen by 10.5% this year, impacting various firms. Exxon Mobil will cut 2,400 jobs globally, Imperial Oil plans a 20% staff reduction, and BP will reduce its workforce by 7,000. Chevron aims to cut 15%-20% of its staff, while Shell intends to reduce its exploration workforce by 20%. These workforce reductions reflect broader economic challenges in the energy sector.

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, noted that the eurozone economy is coping better with U.S. tariffs than anticipated, keeping inflation risks “fairly limited.” The ECB has maintained interest rates since June and does not plan to adjust its policy soon, as inflation remains around the 2% target. Investors largely exclude further rate cuts, with most policymakers considering December as the earliest for discussions on additional economic support. Despite initial concerns, trade shocks did not significantly increase inflation pressures, aided by government spending and a stronger euro. Planned defense spending is expected to boost growth, offsetting trade shock impacts.

The U.S. labor market is stagnant, with only a slight increase in job openings and declining hiring rates, reaching the lowest since June 2024. Unemployment remains relatively low at 4.3%, but concerns persist due to declining immigration affecting workforce growth. Despite rising nominal wages, real wage growth has slowed. Layoffs remain low, but federal unemployment claims have doubled compared to last year, signalling potential deterioration in the job market.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The US Labor Department will suspend it publications if a shutdown begins, halting data collection and release of high-impact indicators. That would postpone the Employment Situation scheduled for Friday, 3 October, and could delay mid-October inflation prints (e.g., CPI around 15 October) if the lapse persists. A temporary data vacuum typically lifts uncertainty premia and near-term volatility in rates and FX.

China’s official manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.8 in September (Aug: 49.4) but remained in contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI eased to 50.0 (Aug: 50.3). The composite gauge edged to 50.6, pointing to broadly stable but subdued activity. The mix suggests domestic demand is still soft despite a marginal improvement in factory sentiment, keeping a lid on risk appetite across Asia and leaving the CNY sensitive to incremental policy support rather than wholesale stimulus.

Gold printed a fresh record as spot touched $3,866.90/oz and is set for its best month since 2011, up roughly 12% m/m. The bid reflects safe-haven demand on U.S. shutdown risks alongside expectations that softer growth and easing real-yield momentum will keep the opportunity cost of holding bullion contained. With futures also firm and ETF interest stabilising, the metal’s correlation to lower real rates and a softer USD remains the key driver into quarter-end.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Next week’s U.S. jobs report faces a delicate balance: enough labour market weakness to justify rate cuts, but not so much to spark recession fears. Economists expect 39,000 new jobs and 4.3% unemployment, though a disappointing number could trigger market volatility. High stock valuations and a potential government shutdown add further uncertainty.

China’s industrial profits rose 20% in August, the first monthly growth since April, reversing earlier declines. The rebound was driven by lower costs, government measures to curb fierce price wars, especially in the EV sector, and a low base effect. Still, weak domestic demand and high US tariffs keep economic conditions “severe and complex”, according to officials.

President Donald Trump again threatened to fire Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, posting a cartoon on Truth Social. He criticizes the Fed for keeping rates too high, despite a recent 25-basis-point cut, and hopes to replace Powell with an ally. The move comes as economic prospects remain uncertain and the Fed weighs further rate reductions.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.72% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Global debt reached a record high of $337.7 trillion in the second quarter, driven by easing financial conditions, a weaker U.S. dollar, and more relaxed central bank policies. The increase resembles the debt surge seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries like China, France, and the U.S. saw significant rises in debt levels. Despite a global decrease in debt-to-GDP ratios, emerging markets set new records, highlighting rising fiscal strains amid geopolitical tensions and military spending. The increasing debt levels stresses potential pressures for central banks, especially regarding the sustainability of government debt and the impact of bond market reactions.

A wide range of European companies announced hiring freezes or layoffs due to challenging economic conditions, impacted by U.S. tariffs and weak product demand. Highlights include Bosch cutting 13,000 jobs, Daimler Truck reducing positions in the US, Mexico, and Germany, and Volvo Cars laying off staff due to high costs and reduced demand. In banking, Commerzbank and HSBC announced substantial job cuts. Energy sector layoffs include OMV planning global reductions. In retail, Auchan and Burberry announced significant staff reductions. These reflect the broader struggle faced by companies amid economic uncertainties.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies like the euro and yen due to unexpectedly strong GDP growth in the second quarter, which may limit future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. GDP grew by 3.8%, revised up from 3.3%. Investor expectations are shifting towards fewer rate cuts this year, impacting Wall Street indices, which declined. The yields on U.S. Treasuries rose, reflecting belief in continued economic strength. While the Fed remains cautious on rate reduction due to mixed economic signals, the dollar continues to rise against currencies like the Swiss franc, as international policies, including those of Donald Trump, affect global outlooks.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The dollar traded narrowly as markets awaited U.S. data for guidance on the Fed path. Traders price roughly 43 bps of additional easing for 2025. The DXY hovered near recent highs, EUR and GBP saw modest rebounds, and the yen firmed slightly after hawkish BoJ minutes; the CHF was steady ahead of the SNB decision.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) nudged its 2025 growth forecast for its regions up to 3.1%, the first upward revision in over a year. The EBRD trimmed its forecast for 2026 to 3.3%. Inflation across member economies was 6.4% y/y in July, with stronger momentum in Central Asia offset by softer trends in parts of emerging Europe. The Bank cautioned that wars, elevated debt burdens and looming tariff measures could weigh on the medium-term trajectory.

Oil pulled back from a seven-week high as investors took profits amid a mixed supply-demand outlook. Brent eased $0.26 to $69.05/bbl and WTI slipped $0.27 to $64.72/bbl, retracing part of Wednesday’s 2.5–3% jump driven by a U.S. crude draw and supply-risk headlines. Seasonal demand softness and prospects of additional OPEC+ supply, alongside a potential restart of Kurdish exports, kept the near-term balance in focus.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.71% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The UK economy showed a clear slowdown in September, according to preliminary data from S&P Global. Both manufacturing and services activity weakened, pushing the composite index down from 53.5 to 51.0, its lowest level in four months. Economists point to weaker trade, declining confidence and job losses.

The Swedish central bank lowered its key interest rate yesterday from 2.00 to 1.75 percent. With this move, the Riksbank aims to stimulate economic activity and ensure that inflation remains close to the desired level over the medium term. The rate is expected to stay unchanged for the time being, as long as the outlook remains stable.

Economic activity in France contracted more sharply in September than in August, according to preliminary data from S&P Global. The purchasing managers’ index for the industrial sector fell to 48.1, while the services index also dropped to 48.9. The composite index reached 48.4, marking its lowest level in five months.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.70% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Germany’s federal and state tax receipts rose 2% y/y in August to €63.2bn, taking Jan–Aug collections to €576.5bn (+6.8% y/y). Despite the nominal increase, the finance ministry cautioned that there are no signs of a short-term acceleration in activity, consistent with a still-subdued growth backdrop after back-to-back annual contractions. The data keep the focus on near-term fiscal planning and whether any cyclical upturn can materialize into Q4.

Asian equities were supported by ongoing AI-led momentum after fresh Wall Street record highs, while safe-haven demand kept gold near $3,759/oz. Chip-exposed markets outperformed, South Korea +0.5%, with Japan and Taiwan up roughly +6.5% and +7% month-to-date, whereas China lagged (blue chips -0.8%). Region-wide moves were modest on the day, but the broader Asia-Pacific gauge is still +5.5% MTD, reflecting robust tech inflows even as investors hedge with gold on the prospect of further U.S. rate cuts.

London’s FTSE 100 eked out a +0.1% close at 9,226.68, with record-high bullion prices propelling precious-metals names while autos slumped. Miners were the clear outperformers (sector +5% intraday), helped by gold’s latest peak and firmer industrial metals, whereas the automobiles & parts cohort fell 1.6% amid weaker European peers and trimming of EV ambitions at major manufacturers. A firmer sterling also weighed on export-heavy constituents, leaving the broader market little changed into the close.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.70% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

After nine years of negotiations, the EU and Indonesia have signed a trade deal aimed at reducing dependence on the US and strengthening ties in Southeast Asia. The agreement, which still needs approval by both parliaments, could boost Indonesian exports by up to 50% in five years and give EU firms access to a market of 285 million people. It also reflects Europe’s push for critical metals like nickel, while balancing disputes over sustainability rules and export bans.

Credit rating agency Fitch has upgraded Italy’s credit rating for the first time since 2021, raising it to BBB+ due to improved fiscal discipline, political stability, and reforms under Prime Minister Meloni. Italy’s deficit fell to 3.4% of GDP and may drop below the EU’s 3% limit, boosting investor confidence and narrowing bond yield spreads with Germany. The upgrade contrasts with France, which was recently downgraded amid political instability and growing budget challenges.

The Trump administration has raised the cost of applying for a new H-1B work visa to $100,000, sparking concern among U.S. companies that rely heavily on foreign talent. While the White House later clarified it is a one-time fee only for new applications, firms like Microsoft, Amazon, and Goldman Sachs fear the steep cost will hinder access to skilled workers from countries such as India and China. Trump, however, insists the policy will protect American jobs and claims companies are willing to pay the price.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.