In the third quarter of this year, the Dutch economy grew unexpectedly strong at 0.4%, driven by increases in government spending and exports, including oil products and machinery. Exports exceeded expectations despite economic headwinds, aided by lower tariffs from the US-European trade agreement. Household spending modestly increased by 0.3% despite a historic rise in purchasing power, while investments fell by 1.6% following prior higher defense spending. Unemployment slightly rose in a still tight labour market, although producer confidence increased. This suggests room for future recovery while the labour market cools slightly.
The eurozone economy grew slightly more than expected in Q3, driven by strong growth in France and Spain, offsetting stagnation in Germany and Italy. The region expanded by 0.2%, beating expectations, and showed annualized growth of 1.3%, indicating resilience despite geopolitical and trade-related uncertainties. Spain and France led growth, while Germany continued to struggle due to lost industrial competitiveness, though increased government spending may support future growth. The near-record low unemployment rate supports the view that further ECB rate cuts are unnecessary. Economists remain cautiously optimistic about future growth, predicting modest increases as tariff uncertainties ease.
The European Central Bank maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, as expected, supported by stronger-than-anticipated growth figures in the eurozone, particularly from France and Spain, offsetting stagnation in Germany. The rate is considered neutral and appropriate given inflation is near the ECB’s target. This marks the third consecutive decision to leave the rate unchanged, following reductions in 2024 to 2025. While stability is anticipated, analysts from Vanguard and ING suggest that falling energy prices and investment plan delays could prompt rate cuts if inflation decreases.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.64% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate to 3.75–4 percent in a 10–2 vote and said it will end quantitative tightening on December 1, halting the $2.3 trillion balance sheet reduction. Chair Jerome Powell warned that another cut in December remains unlikely, leading traders to trim odds of a move to 67 percent from 90 percent. The Fed cited slower growth, softer job gains, and 3 percent inflation.
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed on a one-year deal covering rare earths and critical minerals, while the U.S. cut fentanyl-related tariffs on China to 10% from 20%, lowering overall levies to 47%. Beijing pledged to curb fentanyl exports and resume U.S. agricultural imports, with soybean futures down 1.6% and China’s rare earth index up over 2%.
Copper hit a record $11,146 a ton as hopes of a US-China deal and tight supply drove prices higher. The metal is up more than 25% this year, supported by mine disruptions and inventories at their lowest since July. Analysts expect the largest global copper deficit in over two decades, deepening concerns over shortages as demand from the energy transition and data centers rises.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Dutch voters head to the polls today in a highly unpredictable race following the collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s coalition. Geert Wilders’ PVV is leading in the polls but faces major hurdles in forming a government, as mainstream parties refuse to join a PVV-led coalition. Nearly half of voters remain undecided, and a fragmented result could make coalition talks complex and lengthy.
Argentina’s financial markets rallied after a strong midterm election victory for President Javier Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, which secured nearly 41 percent of the vote. Investors welcomed the result as a sign that Milei’s pro-market reforms, backed by the United States, will continue, easing fears of a peso devaluation and default. Experts suggest the government now has time and political support to adjust its exchange rate policy gradually, possibly floating the peso in 2026 if foreign investment increases.
Green energy stocks have rebounded sharply on a global scale, outperforming broader markets due to rising electricity demand, especially from artificial intelligence, as well as falling interest rates that make renewable investments more attractive. Despite policy setbacks such as Trump’s subsidy cuts, lower costs and increased urgency to expand energy supply have made clean technologies more competitive and central to the future energy mix.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
OPEC+ is reportedly set to lift December output targets by another 137,000 bpd, extending the series of modest monthly hikes eight members began in April. In total, those eight have restored >2.7 million bpd of the 5.85 million bpd they previously cut. The latest move follows prices rebounding above $66/bbl after new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil firms tightened sentiment.
Ahead of threatened 100% U.S. tariffs starting Nov 1, small importers supplying major retailers front-loaded spring 2026 goods. Ports reported record volumes as “front-loading” became standard practice during the recent tariff truce, while some firms shifted to draw from domestic warehouses to better pace shelf stock.
Companies eye Thursday’s meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at South Korea’s APEC summit for clarity on trade and tech restrictions: China accounted for >3.5% of U.S. pharma imports in 2024 and supplies >40% of key starting materials, while energy flows remain constrained by a 15% Chinese tariff on U.S. U.S. crude exports to China, about 150,000 bpd in 2024, have stalled since February tariffs. Automakers also face risks from Chinese export controls on rare earths and chips, underscoring how policy outcomes could ripple through supply chains and prices.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.61% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Canadian exports to the U.S., escalating tensions after an Ontario television ad quoted Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. The move came shortly after Trump cancelled trade talks with Canada, accusing the ad of being “fraudulent.” This new levy risks straining U.S.-Canada relations just as both leaders prepare to attend ASEAN meetings in Malaysia.
Moody’s has downgraded France’s credit outlook from stable to negative while maintaining its Aa3 rating, citing concerns over the country’s high deficit, rising debt, and increasing borrowing costs. The agency warned that political fragmentation could hinder reforms and worsen fiscal performance. Despite these risks, Moody’s kept the rating unchanged due to France’s still resilient economy.
South Africa and Nigeria have been removed from the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) “grey list,” marking a major boost for investor confidence in Africa’s two largest economies. The FATF praised both countries’ reforms to strengthen anti–money laundering and counter terrorist financing systems after years of deficiencies. The decision led to a rise in South Africa’s rand and was hailed as a milestone for restoring global trust in their financial sectors.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Dutch households hold a record amount in savings despite calls from Brussels and the financial sector to invest more. Political parties like GroenLinks-PvdA and D66 are cautious about encouraging investments due to financial risks, while BBB, VVD, and FvD focus on lower taxes for realized returns. The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis reveals that some parties plan to impose extra taxes on investments in shares. The Ministry of Finance sees no fiscal incentive for investing until the new box 3 tax system in 2028. VVD supports a slight push towards investing based on the Swedish model, while CDA focuses on education and win-win loans for SMEs.
Major producers of food, consumer goods, and cars, including Volvo Cars and Unilever, reported better-than-expected results on Thursday, alleviating concerns over U.S. tariffs. Volvo Cars benefitted from significant cost savings, boosting its stock. Unilever showed revenue growth driven by beauty products. Companies are finding ways to offset higher costs, fuelling optimism in stock markets. Nonetheless, some companies, like Michelin, face challenging conditions. In the U.S., wealthier consumers continue to support spending, while inflation concerns trouble lower incomes. European companies are expected to see only a modest profit increase, although most firms have exceeded analyst expectations.
The ESRB (European Systemic Risk Board) warns that governments need to act to prevent stablecoins from destabilizing the financial system. The European crypto law contains gaps that could lead to a crisis. Stablecoins, like Tether and Circle, are digital dollars widely used in crypto transactions and pose risks by potentially becoming unstable during crises. ESRB compares stablecoins to money market funds, which relied on government support during instability. ESRB recommends banning Tether and Circle due to non-compliance with European regulations, despite Circle holding a MiCA license in the EU. Critics caution that total bans may hinder innovation, advocating instead for stricter regulations.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.60% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Former BOJ executive Eiji Maeda said the policy rate, now at 0.50%, could rise as soon as December in a likely 25bp step. He expects it to reach 1.0% by next summer, warning that the bank risks falling behind persistent inflation and a weak yen. The December hike would come after the Oct 29–30 meeting and before Dec 18–19. Maeda cautioned that the slow pace of normalization is creating “distortions” such as surging property prices.
Crude extended gains after settlement as Washington announced Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia’s major oil firms: Brent +$3.03 (+4.9%) to $64.35 (post-settlement) and WTI +$1.42 (+2.4%) to $59.92. Support also came from tighter fundamentals: U.S. crude inventories fell 0.96 million bbl to 422.8 million, versus expectations for an increase, underscoring near-term supply risk.
With UK CPI holding at 3.8% y/y in September, markets added to BoE-cut bets and gilt yields fell: the 2-year touched 3.739% (intraday low), while the 10-year slipped toward 4.37%. Interest-rate futures implied around a 75% chance of a 25bp cut by December, up sharply from pre-data levels.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.58% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Canada’s yearly inflation rate climbed to 2.4% in September, driven by a smaller decrease in gasoline costs and higher food prices, according to data released Tuesday. The figures come just weeks before the Bank of Canada’s next policy meeting, markets widely anticipate another interest rate cut.
Gold prices plunged 6.3% yesterday, marking the steepest drop in over twelve years, while silver fell 8.7%. After previous strong gains, the precious metals market is undergoing a correction. The sharp movements were driven by uncertainty over missing U.S. commodities reports, changes in central bank reserves, and concerns about U.S. budget and trade policies.
China’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in a year during the third quarter, growing 4.8% as weak domestic demand left exports as the main growth driver. In the second quarter, GDP growth had been 5.2%. While the figure meets forecasts and keeps the country on track for its annual target, reliance on foreign markets amid rising trade tensions with the U.S. raises concerns about the sustainability of this momentum.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.56% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil settled at a five-month low on Monday as oversupply worries outweighed demand hopes, with Brent closing at $61.01/bbl and WTI at $57.52/bbl; intraday losses exceeded $1 before a late stabilisation. The lower price tracks rising U.S. crude inventories and a looser forward balance flagged by recent IEA projections, reinforcing a bearish near-term backdrop.
Germany’s federal and state tax revenues rose 2.6% y/y in September to €88.4bn, with wage tax stronger while VAT was broadly flat. Cumulatively, receipts increased 6.2% y/y to €665bn in January–September, though the finance ministry cautioned that weak momentum in activity limits upside near term.
China’s housing downturn deepened in September: new-home prices fell 0.4% m/m and 2.2% y/y, the highest annual drop in 11 months. Price declines broadened, with 63 out of 70 cities lower on the month and 61 down on the year, keeping pressure on policymakers to shore up demand and confidence.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.58% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The US will ease tariffs on trucks and parts imported from Mexico and Canada to soften the impact of the upcoming 25% duties taking effect on November 1. Vehicles compliant with the USMCA will only be taxed on their non-US content, and car parts will remain tariff-free for now. The Trump administration is also extending a rebate scheme for carmakers until 2030 to encourage domestic production, amid industry concerns over trade disruptions in the North American auto supply chain.
Silver prices have surged 78% this year, outperforming gold, thanks to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal. Demand from industries such as solar, electric vehicles, and semiconductors has led to persistent shortages, with a projected 118 million-ounce deficit in 2025. Supported by lower interest rates, inflation, and rising investor demand, silver continues to shine as both an industrial and investment asset.
Failed cocoa harvests in West Africa have driven chocolate prices up by over 50%, making treats like chocolate letters and spiced nuts 13–20% more expensive this year. Producers such as Verkade and Bolletje face shrinking profit margins and adjust their products to retain customers. Rabobank expects prices to remain high due to structural issues like climate change and years of farmer underpayment.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.59% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
