On Thursday, major Wall Street indices fell in anticipation of new economic data post the longest government shutdown. This left traders and the Federal Reserve reliant on private data sources, with gaps for October likely persisting in key reports such as employment and CPI. Uncertainty remains over detailed signals of inflation and job market status. Technology and AI stocks faced pressure, prompting investors to shift focus towards defensive sectors like healthcare. Various Fed speakers expressed skepticism over a December interest rate cut, maintaining market volatility.
On Thursday, London’s FTSE 100 fell by 0.6% following record highs, predominantly due to declines in financial and energy stocks amid disappointing third-quarter economic growth data. The FTSE 250 dropped 0.3%. The energy sector faced pressure from oversupply concerns. The UK’s minimal third-quarter growth led to expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in December.
In September, eurozone industrial production rose just 0.2%, falling short of economists’ expectations for a 0.7% increase. The modest rise was contrasted by significant monthly growth in major economies like Germany (1.9%) and Italy (2.8%), alongside strong performances from France and Spain. However, Ireland saw a substantial 9.4% monthly decline in output, largely due to volatility from large foreign companies based there for tax reasons. This fluctuation, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, often distorts euro zone data, leading some economists to exclude Ireland from their analyses.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.72% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
OPEC sees a modest surplus of about twenty thousand barrels per day in 2026 as rising OPEC plus and non-OPEC supply overturn earlier deficit forecasts. The revision follows a shift from a projected seven hundred-thousand-barrel shortfall in September and helped push Brent down more than three percent to about USD 63. The outlook diverges sharply from the IEA, which expects a four-million-barrel glut next year.
India’s consumer inflation fell to 0.25 percent in October, below forecasts and down sharply from 1.54 percent in September. The drop reflected lower goods and services tax and softer food and commodity prices, though the central bank kept its rate at 5 percent and flagged a potential growth slowdown. United States tariffs of up to 50 percent are straining key export sectors even as domestic demand shows a mixed post tax cut recovery.
US Treasury yields fell, with the ten year at 4.065 percent and the thirty year at 4.661 percent, as investors anticipated an end to the government shutdown. The stalled release of inflation and labour data has heightened uncertainty. The policy backdrop was further unsettled by the announcement that Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will depart in February.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Court of Justice has upheld the EU directive on statutory minimum wages, rejecting Denmark’s claim that it infringes national powers, though it struck down two provisions that directly influence wage levels. Dutch union FNV calls the ruling “fantastic” and urges an increase in the Netherlands’ minimum wage, which at €14.40 per hour still falls short of the directive’s benchmark of 60% of the median gross wage. The judgment also bans discriminatory practices like lower youth wages and deductions for migrant workers and requires countries with low collective agreement coverage—such as the Netherlands—to promote collective bargaining. While supporters hail the decision as a win for workers and social legislation, business lobbyists warn against EU overreach.
A trade war sparked by U.S. President Trump is affecting one in five fast-growing Dutch companies, although the direct impact of tariffs, which can reach up to 50 percent on some metals, remains limited. The bigger issue is policy uncertainty, which discourages investment and slows growth much more than tariffs themselves, according to both entrepreneurs and economists. While some firms such as Tata Steel can offset costs, others face margin pressure and are considering relocating production to the United States. This unpredictability ripples through supply chains, freezing budgets for technology and staff and creating long-term risks for competitiveness. Economists warn that resilience and continued investment in people and processes are key because companies that prepare now will lead when markets stabilize.
Britain’s labour market weakened in the third quarter as unemployment rose to 5.0 percent from 4.8 percent, the highest since early 2021, and wage growth slowed to 4.6 percent, according to official data. Payrolls fell by 32,000 in October after a similar drop in September, marking the biggest two-month decline since late 2020. The pound slipped against the dollar and government bonds rallied as investors anticipated a Bank of England rate cut in December, following signs of easing pay pressures and softer consumer spending. Private-sector wage growth cooled to 4.2 percent, its weakest since early 2021, reinforcing expectations for lower borrowing costs next year.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The 40-day U.S. government shutdown appeared closer to ending after a procedural Senate vote advanced a temporary funding bill, lifting global risk appetite. Major indices rose, Nasdaq up about 1.3% and S&P 500 up roughly 0.7%, while Treasury yields firmed and the dollar steadied. Markets still price a December Federal Reserve rate cut probability near the mid-60% area.
Brent crude oil increased $0.43 to $64.06 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $0.38 to $60.13. Gains reflected improved risk sentiment and worries over potential fuel-supply disruptions tied to sanctions and drone strikes on Russian refineries, partly offset by forecasts of a crude surplus. The mixed backdrop kept the advance measured despite broader market optimism.
The Indian rupee (INR) traded near its all-time low around ₹88.80 per U.S. dollar, little helped by a softer dollar as local corporate dollar demand persisted. State-run banks’ dollar sales helped defend the 88.80–89.00 zone. Foreign outflows this month and year-to-date added pressure, keeping INR in a tight, weak range.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.68% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Euronext has lowered its minimum shareholding requirement for acquiring the Athens Stock Exchange from 67% to 50% plus one share, ahead of the 17 November deadline. This move supports its goal to consolidate European capital markets and position Greece as a Southeast European hub. While the offer has backing from Athex’s board and the Greek Finance Ministry, shareholder response is still unclear. Initially priced at €6.90 per share and later raised to €7.14, the offer has lost value due to Euronext’s falling share price. Despite this, Euronext remains optimistic about Greece’s recovery and integration.
The S&P 500’s 2.4% decline over eight sessions is viewed as a brief pause in a broader rally, rather than a sign of deeper trouble. Profit-taking in the AI and tech sectors has raised concerns about high valuations, but analysts say the volatility is normal. Strong consumer spending and business investment continue to support a bullish outlook. Although limited data resulting from the government shutdown poses a risk of overreaction, most investors see the dip as a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, a tentative bipartisan budget deal aims to end the 40-day U.S. government shutdown. However, it faces opposition within the Democratic Party and still requires approval from the House and President Trump. The shutdown has disrupted services and affected millions who rely on food aid.
China’s economy showed signs of stabilizing in October, with consumer prices up 0.2% and core inflation reaching a 20-month high of 1.2%. Producer price deflation eased, but weak demand and geopolitical tensions keep deflation risks alive. The government has introduced 700 billion yuan in fiscal support, with more stimulus likely needed. Meanwhile, China temporarily lifted its export ban on key “dual-use items” to the U.S. from 9 November 2025 to 27 November 2026, following a tariff-reduction deal between Presidents Xi and Trump. This signals a brief easing of trade tensions, though future policy shifts remain possible.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.69% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Central Bank (ECB), as stated by Vice President Luis de Guindos, is content with the current interest rate level and views any inflation drop below 2% as temporary. Despite inflation surpassing the 2% target this year, it is expected to fall below this level next year. Investors see a modest chance for further policy easing, with interest rate cuts by mid-2026 possible. Positive inflation news and solid growth figures bolster the ECB’s confidence in their projections, and policymakers are now slightly more optimistic about the eurozone’s growth prospects.
In October, the U.S. economy saw job losses, particularly in government and retail sectors, amid a surge in layoffs prompted by cost-cutting and AI adoption. The Chicago Federal Reserve estimated an increase in the unemployment rate, but accurate labor market assessments are hindered by the ongoing government shutdown. Revelio Labs indicated significant job losses in government and moderate gains in education and health services. Layoffs increased by 37%, led by the tech sector, with companies like Amazon planning large cuts. Although planned layoffs are high, actual layoffs remained lower until mid-September. Cost-cutting was the primary reason for October’s job reductions, with AI being the second leading factor. Hiring intentions rose for holiday recruitment but remained below last year’s levels. This environment reflects high interest rates, tariff uncertainty, and rising costs impacting hiring decisions.
After advancing earlier in the week, European stocks declined on renewed tech and tariff concerns impacting firms like Legrand. The British pound regained ground as the BoE maintained its rate at 4% amid persistent inflation worries. Asian markets exhibited solid gains driven by tech stocks, yet concerns re-emerged in Europe. A narrow BoE vote kept hopes of a rate cut alive, lifting sterling slightly. Bond yields saw slight changes, while U.S. Treasury yields remained high. Positive U.S. services and employment data are decreasing chances of a December Fed rate cut, influencing market volatility.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October after a 29,000 decline, suggesting tentative stabilization in hiring, according to ADP data. Pay growth remained flat for over a year, pointing to balanced labor supply and demand. Despite modest gains, recent layoffs at major firms and a softening job market keep pressure on the Federal Reserve as it weighs further rate cuts.
Oil prices fell about 1 percent, with Brent crude settling at $63.65 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $59.75, as concerns over a global supply glut overshadowed solid American fuel demand. U.S. crude inventories jumped by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million, far above forecasts, while gasoline stocks dropped by 4.7 million. Sentiment was further pressured by Canada’s possible retreat from its emissions cap and OPEC+ plans to raise output by 137,000 barrels a day in December.
Traders are expected to remain net short on the US dollar through November as markets price in up to four further Federal Reserve rate cuts by end of 2026, despite Chair Jerome Powell’s caution over a December move. USD has fallen about 8% this year, trimming earlier losses, while rate futures imply a 70% chance of a December cut. Strategists expect the euro to climb to around $1.20 within six months, with sentiment turning less bearish as positioning data remains unavailable amid the prolonged US government shutdown.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.68% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Montenegro and Albania are progressing rapidly toward EU membership, as noted in the European Commission’s November 4 report. Both are advancing reforms in democracy and rule of law, with Montenegro in the lead. Moldova and Ukraine are also making strides despite war and Russian interference, though Ukraine must further improve its judiciary and anti-corruption efforts. In contrast, Serbia, Georgia, and Turkey are stagnating due to political instability. The EU itself must reform internally to stay functional as it expands.
Yesterday, EU climate ministers met in Brussels to discuss Commissioner Hoekstra’s proposal to cut emissions by 90% by 2040. While the target is broadly supported, France, Poland, and Italy called for more flexibility and earlier use of carbon credits. The debate is key for the upcoming UN climate summit in Brazil, where the EU must present a 2035 target requiring unanimous approval – unlike the 2040 goal, which only needs a majority.
Gold prices fell over 1% as the U.S. dollar hit a three-month high, making gold more expensive for non-dollar holders. Spot gold dropped to $3,940.75, while December futures settled at $3,960.50. The decline reflects reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, now seen at 71% versus over 90% last week. Investors are watching non-official data like the ADP jobs report due today, amid a U.S. government shutdown. Gold, up 53% this year, has fallen 9% since its October peak. Silver, platinum, and palladium also declined.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.66% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Euro zone manufacturing stagnated in October as the PMI held at 50.0, signalling no growth, with output inching up for an eighth month but new orders flat and export demand weakening. Employment fell for a twenty ninth consecutive month as firms cut costs amid subdued activity, while prices and input costs showed little movement. Growth in Greece and Spain contrasted with ongoing contraction in Germany and France, underscoring a fragile recovery across the bloc.
US manufacturing shrank for an eighth consecutive month in October, with the ISM index slipping to 48.7 from 49.1 as tariffs continued to weigh on new orders and supply chains. Only a few industries reported growth, while most cited weaker demand and production constraints. Economists warned the trade war’s disruptions and a slowing global backdrop are eroding factory activity despite government efforts to revive the sector.
The dollar climbed to a near three-month high as investors awaited key U.S. data to gauge the strength of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s next move. The euro slipped to $1.1527 and sterling to $1.3136, while the yen hovered near 154.15 per dollar as Japan’s wide interest rate gap with the U.S. kept pressure on its currency. Markets were subdued by thin Asian trading and uncertainty from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The upcoming trading week will focus on global PMI data and several key central bank rate decisions, including a likely 25-basis-point cut by the Bank of England. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to delay major reports like the jobs data, forcing the Fed to act cautiously.
The European Commission announced that China has agreed to suspend its export restrictions on rare earth metals for the EU, following a similar deal with the U.S. Brussels called this a responsible move to safeguard global trade flows. Meanwhile, the EU is developing its “Resource EU” plan to reduce dependence on China for critical materials by securing alternative sources, building reserves, and forging new international partnerships.
Foreign investors such as BlackRock and Carlyle are facing major losses on their Chinese real estate as the market collapses. With office vacancy rates between 20–40% and falling rents, properties in China are being sold at steep discounts. Analysts warn that recovery could take years, making this a “lost decade” for China’s commercial real estate sector.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.64% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
