The dollar is on course for its worst week since late July due to increased expectations for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. In Asia, the yen fluctuated amid weakness, increasing the likelihood of Finance Ministry intervention. The Bank of Japan has avoided rate hikes despite inflation above target, with tightening expected to resume in the coming months.
The UK government has softened plans to enhance worker protection against unfair dismissal by extending the qualifying period for new rights from the first day to six months after starting a job. This decision followed discussions with businesses concerned that initial proposals would complicate hiring. Unions had mixed reactions: they welcomed the reduction from the current two-year waiting period for dismissal rights and new provisions like day-one sick pay and paternity leave from April 2026. However, the Unite union criticized the bill for not banning zero-hours contracts and fire-and-rehire practices. The bill is a key Labour manifesto pledge aiming to eliminate exploitative practices. Business groups supported the amendment and highlighted the need for ongoing dialogue on topics like guaranteed hours contracts. Most changes will take effect no earlier than 2026, with commitments that variations can only occur through primary legislation and lifting of the compensation cap.
Dutch industrial selling prices slightly decreased in October, as reported by the Statistics Netherlands. There was a 0.1% decline compared to October 2024, following a 0.6% increase in September year-over-year. The price development of crude North Sea Brent oil, which typically has a strong influence on these prices, fell significantly, with the price reaching 55 euros per barrel in October, 20% less than a year before. On a monthly basis, selling prices decreased by 0.5%, with foreign market prices dropping by 0.7% and domestic market prices by 0.1%.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US equities rose for a fourth straight session before Thanksgiving as confidence built around easier policy. Futures pricing implies over 80% odds of a December quarter point cut after soft retail sales and wholesale inflation, while jobless claims fell to the lowest since April. Attention turns to regional data for signals on consumer spending and the labor market amid a policy data lull.
An early release of official budget forecasts rattled UK markets ahead of the fiscal statement, an unprecedented breach in 15 years. Ten-year gilt yields fell 10 basis points in about 15 minutes after data showed fiscal headroom rising to £22 billion from £9.9 billion, before reversing. The episode raised concerns over process and governance, prompting an investigation amid heightened market sensitivity to fiscal credibility.
The IMF has reclassified India’s exchange rate regime as crawl like as the rupee weakens and volatility rises, signalling limited but growing flexibility in currency management. The rupee is down about 4% this year, with one year volatility above 5%, compared with below 2% previously. The fund expects economic growth of 6.6% in 2025–26 and sees scope for rate cuts as inflation stays low.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday as weaker U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence data boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, though weakness in tech stocks limited Nasdaq’s gains. The Dow led advances, while Nvidia’s sharp drop weighed on semiconductor shares. Reports indicated cooling inflation and softer retail sales, alongside a steep decline in consumer confidence, reinforcing market bets for a 25-basis-point cut, now seen as nearly 85% likely. Most S&P 500 sectors rose, led by healthcare, while utilities lagged. Retail stocks surged on strong earnings forecasts despite mixed results elsewhere. Broader market breadth was positive, with advancing stocks outnumbering decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.
Asian stocks rose on Wednesday on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index climbed 1.1%, Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.9%, and U.S. futures edged higher. Oil prices steadied after recent declines driven by geopolitical developments, while OPEC+ is expected to keep output unchanged at its upcoming meeting.
Insurers are increasingly seeking to limit or exclude AI-related risks from corporate policies as adoption of generative AI grows and liability concerns escalate. Many insurers are filing for exclusions due to unpredictable outputs and unclear responsibility among developers, providers and users. While some offer narrowly defined endorsements or add-ons, coverage is often capped and systemic incidents are excluded. Recent costly errors, lawsuits and fraud involving AI highlight the potential for significant losses. Experts warn that as AI-driven claims rise, insurers may challenge payouts in court and a major systemic event could trigger widespread restrictions on coverage.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Brazil’s central bank governor Gabriel Galipolo reiterated that policymakers remain dissatisfied with the pace of disinflation, even after holding the policy rate at 15 percent, its highest level in almost twenty years. He stressed that interest rates must stay restrictive until inflation is firmly on track to reach the 3 percent target. Galipolo also defended the recent liquidation of Banco Master as necessary to safeguard financial stability after a severe liquidity crisis and sharp financial deterioration.
In its latest report, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development warns that ageing demographics are already weighing on growth in several economies. The bank estimates that in emerging Europe shrinking working age populations could trim per capita GDP growth by almost 0.4 percentage points annually between 2024 and 2050. Chief economist Beata Javorcik highlights that post communist countries are “getting old before getting rich” and stresses the need for longer working lives and pension reform.
The U.S. dollar held broadly steady as investors weighed a possible December interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve following dovish comments by Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams. Markets now price an 81 percent probability of a quarter point move, up from 42 percent a week earlier, yet the dollar index trades near 100.2. The euro is around 1.1522 dollars, sterling 1.3103 dollars and the yen remains weak near 157 per dollar.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.74% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Moody’s upgraded Italy’s sovereign rating from Baa3 to Baa2, the first upgrade in 23 years, citing stronger political stability, steady fiscal performance, and progress on the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. Italy is on track to reduce its deficit below 3% of GDP in 2025, potentially ending the EU’s excessive-deficit procedure by mid-2026. Moody’s expects Italy’s high debt to start declining gradually from 2027, and revised the outlook to stable.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 43-day U.S. government shutdown caused $11 billion in permanent economic damage but remained optimistic about strong, low-inflation growth in 2026 thanks to lower rates, tax cuts, and easing energy prices. He rejected tariffs as the main source of inflation and said new tax policies and trade deals should support consumers and industry.
Despite a U.S. boycott, the G20 countries adopted a joint declaration in Johannesburg, reaffirming the Paris Climate Agreement and calling for peace in conflict zones and fairer treatment of developing nations. The statement highlights Africa’s growing geopolitical importance, especially its critical minerals. The U.S. reacted angrily, accusing South Africa of undermining G20 principles.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.75% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Commission is encouraging EU member states to boost supplementary pension savings, similar to the substantial reserves found in the Netherlands. Brussels is reintroducing the pan-European personal pension product (PEPP) to combat poverty and inequality in Europe. By recommending automatic enrolment in pension schemes and removing fiscal limitations on PEPP, the Commission aims to enhance social security while unlocking economic funding sources. The need for transparency is addressed, ensuring EU citizens have comprehensive insights into their pension rights and expected benefits.
In October, the sale of existing homes in the U.S. rose by 1.2%, aided by lower mortgage rates, yet high home prices and rising unemployment continue to weigh on the market. Renewed Federal Reserve rate cuts led to lower mortgage rates, though further reductions remain uncertain. The lack of affordable housing is a major political issue, with propositions for a 50-year mortgage to increase affordability. The inventory of existing homes rose by 10.9% compared to a year earlier, while the median price also showed economic growth. First-time buyers constitute a larger share of sales, but their market impact is still below the desired 40% for a robust housing market.
Investors are exiting the yen and Japanese government bonds, driving borrowing costs to record highs, and increasing pressure on policymakers. The selloff is triggered by a stimulus package from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The yen hits a low and bond yields reach record highs, posing difficult choices for policymakers. The yen’s decline is detached from typical US-Japan interest rate differentials. Insurers and foreign investors are withdrawing from long-term bonds. The Bank of Japan considers intervention, potentially weakening the yen further.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US trade slumped in August as imports dropped 5.1 percent to 340.4 billion dollars after tariffs pushed the effective levy rate above 18 percent, the highest since 1934. Exports also eased, but the trade deficit narrowed nearly 24 percent to 59.6 billion dollars as businesses cut purchases of industrial supplies and gold. The adjustment followed earlier stockpiling, leaving the year to date deficit still up 25 percent.
British inflation eased to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent, softening sterling and lowering gilt yields as markets increased bets on a Bank of England rate cut in December. Services inflation slipped to 4.5 percent, its lowest since late 2024, though food and drink prices accelerated to 4.9 percent, underscoring lingering domestic pressures. With growth weakening and fiscal tightening expected in next week’s budget, analysts see conditions aligning for monetary easing despite continued wage driven persistence.
US mortgage applications fell 5.2 percent to a four-week low as the average 30-year mortgage rate inched up to 6.37 percent, signalling renewed strain in the housing market. Refinancing slid 7.3 percent and purchase applications dropped 2.3 percent, underscoring weak affordability despite builder incentives. Sentiment indicators from homebuilders also softened, pointing to subdued sales expectations even as prices are trimmed.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.77% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Wall Street and global markets fell on Tuesday as investors grew cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, which could determine whether the AI-driven rally has staying power amid concerns of overvaluation. The S&P 500 is on track for its fourth consecutive loss, down approximately 2.8% since Nov. 12, while the Dow and Nasdaq also declined. European and Asian markets mirrored the selloff, with German stocks hitting a five-month low and Japan’s Nikkei dropping over 3%. Risk-off sentiment pushed U.S. Treasury yields slightly lower, while crude oil, gold, and cryptocurrencies rebounded. The dollar held firm against major currencies, and investors appear to be locking in gains after a strong year for tech stocks.
Reverse stock splits have surged globally to a record high in 2025, with 288 executed through October compared to just 53 traditional splits, highlighting stress among small-cap firms struggling to meet listing requirements. Nearly 80% of these companies have market values under $250 million, and reverse splits, typically seen as a sign of financial strain, contrast sharply with traditional splits favoured by megacaps to attract retail investors. This trend underscores a widening market divide: small caps now represent only 1.2% of U.S. market capitalization, near a century low, while AI-driven tech giants have fuelled 75% of S&P 500 gains since late 2022. Retail inflows into Big Tech remain strong, with Netflix, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia all seeing double-digit increases in 2025.
Bitcoin rebounded slightly on Tuesday to around $93,532 after plunging below $90,000, its lowest level in seven months, leaving it roughly 26% below October’s peak above $126,000. The broader crypto market has lost about $1.2 trillion in value over the past six weeks amid risk aversion, doubts over U.S. rate cuts, and heavy ETF outflows totaling $3.7 billion since October. Analysts warn that confidence can erode quickly as institutions unwind positions and retail buyers retreat following last month’s flash crash. Listed companies holding bitcoin, such as Strategy and Marathon, have also faced volatility, with Standard Chartered estimating that a sustained drop below $90,000 could leave half of corporate holdings underwater. Meanwhile, ether has fallen nearly 40% from its August high above $4,955.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The US dollar strengthened against the euro and yen as traders awaited a backlog of US economic data following the end of the government shutdown. The dollar index moved to around 99.6, with the euro slipping to about 1.16 and the yen weakening at 155 per dollar. Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December fell to below 40 percent.
The cryptocurrency market has lost about 1.2 trillion dollars in value over six weeks as investors retreat from speculative assets. Total market capitalisation of more than 18,000 tokens tracked is down 25 percent, while Bitcoin has fallen over 28 percent to around 89,500 dollars, leaving performance flat for 2025. Concerns about high artificial intelligence stock valuations, reduced Federal Reserve rate cut hopes and heavy use of leverage have amplified the sell off.
India agreed its first large liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) purchase deal with the United States, committing to import 2.2 million tonnes from the US, about 10 percent of its annual LPG needs. Washington previously supplied only 0.5 percent of India’s LPG. New Delhi hopes the politically symbolic agreement will ease tensions over high US tariffs, even though cheaper Gulf suppliers mean the deal offers limited immediate economic benefit.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. decision to exempt dozens of food products from earlier tariffs provides Indian agricultural exporters with much-needed relief after significant tariff hikes this year. Although the move could benefit $2.5–3 billion worth of exports and signals progress in U.S.–India trade talks, analysts expect only limited gains because India has little presence in many of the newly exempt categories. High freight costs, strong competition, and strict U.S. quality standards may further constrain the potential boost.
Federal Reserve policymakers remain divided over whether to cut interest rates again in December, as key economic data delayed by the government shutdown is about to be released. Several officials voiced renewed concerns about persistent inflation, while other members argued for another rate cut. As a result, market expectations have shifted, with traders now seeing a higher likelihood that the Fed will hold rates steady in December.
Financial disclosures show that President Donald Trump purchased at least $82 million in corporate and municipal bonds from late August to early October, with a maximum total value exceeding $337 million. Most investments were in publicly issued bonds, but he also added holdings in industries benefiting from his administration’s policies, including tech firms, chipmakers, and major banks. The activity has raised renewed concerns over potential conflicts of interest, even though the portfolio is said to be managed by a third party.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
