Interest rates, including Dutch ten-year government bonds, have risen globally, driven partly by shifting expectations of fewer interest rate cuts and potential rate hikes by central banks such as those in Japan, Australia, and potentially the eurozone. In the Netherlands, the 10 year government rate exceeded 3% for the first time in a while. These higher capital market rates increase costs for governments issuing bonds and affect interest rates on loans for businesses and consumers. Additional factors such as increased issuance of government debt and changes in the Dutch pension sector also influence interest rates. The Bank for International Settlements highlighted a decline in the convenience yield for government bonds.
Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov announced the resignation of his government amid widespread protests over economic policies and corruption, minutes before a scheduled no-confidence vote. This decision comes shortly before Bulgaria’s planned entry into the euro zone on January 1. Despite withdrawing the 2026 budget plan to quell unrest, demonstrations against government arrogance and policy attitudes persist. Opposition leader Asen Vassilev views the resignation as a step towards normalizing Bulgaria and calls for fair elections. President Rumen Radev, who supported the government’s resignation, will now initiate the formation of a new government or appoint an interim one if necessary, pending new elections.
Germany’s population is projected to decrease by nearly 10 million to about 75 million by 2070 due to smaller succeeding generations following the baby boomers. The latest forecasts expect that by 2035, one in four Germans will be over 67. This demographic shift is causing increasing pressure on Germany’s social systems, with the ratio of pensioners to workers potentially rising significantly by 2070. Germany, alongside Italy, ranks as one of Europe’s most aged countries. The forecasts coincide with labour shortages and political tensions over immigration, contributing to the rise of the Alternative for Germany party in polls. Only scenarios involving high immigration and increased birth rates show potential for population growth.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.89% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Federal Reserve cut rates to 3.5 to 3.75 percent for a third consecutive time, as unemployment reached 4.4 percent and inflation held at 2.8 percent. Divisions widened over whether labour softness or persistent prices pose the greater risk, with three dissents marking the sharpest split since 2019. Markets steadied as officials kept their outlook of only one cut in 2026 while upgrading growth to 2.3 percent.
China’s consumer prices rose 0.7 percent in November while producer prices fell 2.2 percent, underscoring persistent deflationary pressure despite modest food driven inflation. Weak domestic demand continues to weigh on the nineteen trillion-dollar economy even as it approaches its five percent growth target. Analysts expect further policy support as falling prices and sluggish spending hinder a durable recovery.
Brazil is set to hold its Selic rate at 15 percent for a fourth meeting as inflation expectations remain above the 3 percent target despite slowing output and a mere 0.1 percent rise in third quarter GDP. Annual inflation eased to 4.5 percent in mid-November, but policymakers remain wary of fiscal risks ahead of the 2026 election. Markets now look for signals of a shift toward cuts early next year as activity cools and rate guidance softens.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.90% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Investors are increasingly betting that interest rates in the Eurozone, Canada and Australia could increase next year, even as the US Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates, a divergence that may further weaken the dollar. Swap markets now imply a small Eurozone rate increase by end-2026, reversing earlier expectations of cuts, while hawkish signals from central banks and stronger economic data have lifted global bond yields. The Fed is anticipated to make at least two more cuts next year, while the Bank of England is nearing the end of its easing cycle. This shift, driven by resilient growth and inflation pockets, suggests a turning point for global monetary policy and could keep downward pressure on the dollar.
German exports in October rose slightly by 0.1% to €131.3 billion, driven by stronger trade with European countries despite declines of exports to the US and China. Imports fell 1.2% to €114.5 billion, leaving a trade surplus of €16.9 billion. Analysts warn exports remain under pressure from weak Chinese demand, rising competition, and geopolitical factors. Meanwhile, factory orders and overall production grew modestly in October, supported by transport, construction, and machinery sectors, though car output lags. Economic forecasts remain cautious, with growth in 2026 expected to stay below 1% amid concerns over bureaucracy, labour costs, and global competition.
EU member states and the European Parliament have agreed to significantly weaken the proposed anti-look-away law, which will now apply only to companies with at least 5,000 employees and €1.5 billion turnover, compared to the original threshold of 1,000 employees and €450 million. The maximum fine for non-compliance has been reduced from 5% to 3% of global turnover, and obligations such as climate plans and full supply chain checks have been scaled back to focus only on highest-risk links. Implementation is postponed until July 2029, and there will be no EU liability regime for victims. The sustainability reporting directive is also eased, raising the turnover threshold to €450 million while keeping the employee limit at 1,000.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.90% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The euro’s appreciation is reinforcing the deflationary impact of cheaper Chinese exports and could push the European Central Bank to cut interest rates further after recently signalling it is in a “good place”. The euro trades near 1.166 dollars, after reaching a four year high of 1.1918 in September, and is on track for a gain of almost 13 percent this year, its strongest annual performance since 2017.
United States households became more pessimistic about their current and future finances in November, according to the New York Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Expectations. Despite this, labour market perceptions improved, with expected job loss over the next year at its lowest since December 2024. Inflation expectations held at 3.2 percent, while three and five year horizons remained at 3.0 percent. The report precedes a Federal Reserve meeting where policymakers debate further rate cuts.
Gold prices eased slightly as investors remained cautious ahead of the United States Federal Reserve policy meeting and comments by Chair Jerome Powell on the monetary outlook. Spot gold slipped 0.2 percent to 4,189.49 dollars per ounce, while February futures settled 0.6 percent lower at 4,217.7 dollars.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.90% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Euro zone inflation has fallen from a 10.6% peak end of 2022 to the ECB’s 2% target, and policymaker Olli Rehn says it is likely to remain slightly below that level, though medium-term risks are tilted downward. Rehn urged EU leaders to unlock a stalled plan to use frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine and rejected any ECB involvement on legal grounds. He also indicated he would be a strong contender for the ECB vice-presidency next year.
U.S. consumer credit rose by $9.2 billion in October, a slower increase than the previous month, according to the Federal Reserve. September’s initially reported $13.1 billion rise was revised down to $11.0 billion.
Britain’s housing market cooled in November, with Halifax reporting flat monthly prices and annual growth slowing to 0.7%, the weakest pace since March 2024. The slowdown reflects strong price growth a year earlier, as buyers grew cautious ahead of the government’s budget. Despite this, affordability has improved, and Halifax expects gradual price growth next year, supported by steady demand and anticipated interest rate cuts.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.84% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Union is contemplating lending Ukraine billions, as U.S. support declines and Ukraine faces a potential funding crisis. They plan to utilize approximately €210 billion of frozen Russian assets held in Europe but face opposition, mainly from Belgium, due to fears of Russian retaliation. Alternatives include borrowing against the EU’s budget, which could worsen the EU’s debts. The EU intends to fund Ukraine with a “reparations” loan using Russian assets managed by Euroclear. This plan presents risks, including potential legal challenges from Russia, and requires broad EU support. Belgium remains resistant due to legal concerns, complicating final agreements. Recent tensions, like drone sightings in Belgium, suggest geopolitical stakes with Russia, which has warned of retaliatory actions if assets are confiscated.
China’s major state-owned banks have been buying dollars in the onshore spot market to mitigate the yuan’s rapid appreciation, which reached a 14-month high. This effort is intended to smooth, rather than reverse, the yuan’s gains by tightening dollar liquidity, thus increasing the cost of long yuan positions. Consequently, back-end dollar/yuan swap points have dropped. The actions of these banks are likely meant to moderate the yuan’s increase to avoid sudden buying by exporters and maintain stability, potentially supporting the global use of the currency. The yuan has gained approximately 3.3% against the dollar year-to-date, setting it up for its largest annual gain since 2020.
The number of new unemployment claims in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level in over three years, with claims falling by 27,000 to 191,000 for the week ending November 29. Despite a decline in job cuts by 53% in November, the labor market remains stagnant with cautious hiring due to factors like reduced immigration and the integration of artificial intelligence, which affects demand for entry-level jobs. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September. As the Federal Reserve prepares to meet, there is debate over whether further interest rate cuts are necessary, while some policymakers remain skeptical of such measures.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.80% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Business activity in the euro zone grew at its fastest pace in two and a half years as the composite PMI rose to 52.8 in November, led by services at 53.6. Manufacturing remained weak with new orders slipping, while job growth eased despite steady hiring in services. Input costs climbed at the fastest rate in eight months, but output price inflation cooled.
U.S. import prices were flat in September, as a 1.5% drop in fuel and a 3.0% fall in natural gas offset a 0.4% rise in consumer goods excluding vehicles. Year on year import prices rose 0.3%, the first increase since March, aided by a 5.6% weaker trade weighted dollar. Core prices excluding food and fuel rose 0.3%, as policy makers weigh the outlook for rate cuts.
Australia’s economy grew 2.1% year on year in the third quarter, below expectations but its strongest pace since Q3 2023, while quarterly growth reached 0.4%. Domestic demand remained firm with private investment at its highest since 2021, though net trade slightly dragged on output. Inflation at 3.8% has lifted bond yields to 4.65% and kept rate cuts off the table for now.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.78% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Eurozone inflation rose unexpectedly to 2.2% in November, exceeding the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the third consecutive month, driven by persistent services inflation, which climbed to 3.5%, its highest since April. Germany’s inflation also increased to 2.6%, while core inflation held steady at 2.4%. Despite this, ECB president Christine Lagarde signalled that current interest rates, set at 2%, remain appropriate, and markets expect no immediate cuts, with only a 30% chance of a reduction by June 2026. Unemployment edged up to 6.4%, and analysts described the inflation trend as slowing but fragile, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will maintain its stance at its 18 December meeting.
The EU has reached a landmark agreement on its first directive to harmonise criminal law on corruption across member states. The rules establish common definitions for offences such as bribery, embezzlement and obstruction of justice, and set minimum prison sentences, allowing countries to impose stricter penalties if they wish. Negotiations were fraught, particularly over whether abuse of office for personal or third-party gain should be criminalised, with Italy resisting due to concerns about vague definitions deterring officials from approving projects. Ultimately, member states will decide which serious breaches of public office to include in national law. The directive still requires formal approval by the European Parliament and member states before taking effect.
A consortium of ten major European banks, including ING and BNP Paribas, is launching a euro-backed stablecoin via the non-profit company Qivalis, with the first transactions expected by summer 2026. The initiative aims to strengthen European financial sovereignty and counter the dominance of US stablecoins, which regulators fear could undermine the euro and inflation control. Unlike US counterparts such as Tether, Qivalis will maintain a near one-to-one reserve ratio in cash and top-rated bonds, ensuring strict compliance with European regulations. The coin will support interbank payments, trade, and investment transactions, reducing costs and exchange rate risks. With the stablecoin market projected to grow from $300 billion to up to $3.7 trillion in five years, Qivalis positions itself as a trusted, regulated alternative to US crypto assets.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.79% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Global bonds sold off after comments from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda suggested an imminent rate rise. Japan’s two-year yield climbed above 1% for the first time since 2008 and the 10-year yield reached about 1.87%. US 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.09% and German Bunds to roughly 2.75%.
Gold prices edged lower after touching a six-week high, as higher United States 10-year Treasury yields and profit taking reduced demand for non-yielding bullion. Spot gold slipped about 0.4% to roughly 4,216 dollars per ounce and US futures fell around 0.7% to 4,247 dollars. Investors are now focused on upcoming US employment data and the delayed core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation index to refine expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
South Korea’s CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in November, slightly above market expectations and remaining above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target for a third month. Prices for agricultural and fishery products jumped 5.6%, driven by sharp increases in staples such as rice and mandarins. On a monthly basis CPI fell 0.2%. The figures strengthen the case for the Bank of Korea to keep its policy rate on hold at 2.50% for longer.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.80% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Switzerland decisively rejected a proposed 50% tax on inheritances over 50 million francs, with 78% voting against it, which is an even stronger opposition than polls had predicted. The initiative, pushed by the youth wing of the Social Democrats to fund climate-related projects, raised concerns that it would drive wealthy residents out of the country and reduce tax revenues.
China’s central bank reaffirmed its strict stance on virtual currencies, warning of renewed speculation and vowing to crack down on illegal activities involving stablecoins. The PBOC emphasized that virtual currencies lack legal status as tender and raised concerns that stablecoins pose risks for money laundering, fraud, and unauthorized cross-border transfers. Despite China’s bans, reports indicate that bitcoin mining is quietly resurging due to cheap electricity in some provinces.
AI-powered shopping tools drove a surge in U.S. online spending on Black Friday, with consumers spending a record $11.8 billion as they avoided crowded stores and used chatbots to find the best deals. Despite economic pressure from inflation, tariffs, and weak consumer confidence, e-commerce grew far faster than in-store sales, and AI agents influenced $14.2 billion in global Black Friday purchases. Higher prices and modest discounts, however, meant shoppers bought fewer items even as average selling prices rose.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.75% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
