U.S. stock markets ended the second‑to‑last trading day of the year slightly lower, as investors reacted to newly released Federal Reserve minutes showing broad support for a rate cut but also significant disagreement among policymakers regarding economic risks. Oil prices decreased only marginally despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East involving regional powers. Market sentiment was mixed across sectors, with some technology‑related areas showing resilience while parts of the automotive sector experienced pressure due to disappointing delivery outlooks and supply‑chain difficulties.
Spain’s inflation eased to 3% in December, remaining well above the eurozone average and reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term. This marks the fourth consecutive month that Spanish inflation has been at or above this level, making it the first major eurozone economy to publish its December data. With eurozone inflation forecast to remain around 2% throughout 2025, policymakers increasingly see the recent cycle of rate cuts as concluded unless major new developments emerge.
Brazil is positioning itself as a major producer of green hydrogen, benefiting from abundant solar and wind resources and supported by cooperation with international port partners to access European markets. In the port area of Pecém, preparations are underway for large‑scale electrolyser projects expected to move into construction in 2026. Despite global setbacks in hydrogen development, particularly in Europe, Brazil remains attractive due to clear permitting frameworks, shared infrastructure, and national policies that encourage investment. Challenges such as high production costs and incomplete European transport networks remain, but Brazil aims to become a key supplier for European countries with significant industrial demand.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.93% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices closed higher after peace expectations around Ukraine cooled and Middle East supply worries resurfaced. Brent increased with USD 1.30 (2.1%) to USD 61.94 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude increased with USD 1.34 (2.4%) to USD 58.08. Russia said it would review its stance on peace talks after alleging Ukrainian drones targeted a presidential residence, claims Kyiv denied. Attention also shifted to Yemen after Saudi air strikes, while a delayed US stockpiles report kept inventory signals in focus.
In holiday-thinned trading, the yen extended its recovery, marking a fifth gain in six sessions as investors assessed Japan’s rate path and the risk of currency intervention. Minutes showed the Bank of Japan debated continuing hikes after lifting the policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5%. The dollar slipped 0.23% to 156.18 yen, after the yen had weakened to 157.77 post-meeting.
Tax changes in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill could become a principal macro driver in 2026. For households, lower income tax rates are made permanent, with withholding resets potentially lifting take-home pay and refunds. Temporary exemptions through 2029 cover tipped income up to USD 25,000 and overtime pay up to USD 12,500, while the cap on state and local tax deductions rises to USD 40,000. For companies, full expensing for certain equipment and US-based research spending returns.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.92% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. stocks are set to end 2025 strongly, with the S&P 500 up nearly 18% for the year and about 1% away from the 7,000 level, while the Nasdaq is up around 22%. The S&P 500 is on track for its eighth consecutive monthly gain, supported by bullish momentum and expectations around future Fed rate cuts. Markets are watching upcoming Fed minutes and potential news on a new Fed chair nomination.
Hong Kong raised its 2025 growth forecast to 3.2% from 2%–3%, driven by strength in finance, technology and trade. With the Hang Seng Index up about 30% this year, the city plans to attract more IPOs, promote the yuan internationally and invest in AI and biotech.
China has passed revisions to its Foreign Trade Law to strengthen its ability to respond to trade conflicts and align its rules more closely with trans-Pacific trade bloc standards. The changes, effective March 1, 2026, expand tools to counter external pressures, tighten control over sensitive exports, and emphasize digital trade, green trade, and intellectual property. The overhaul also reflects Beijing’s effort to reduce reliance on the U.S. and further open its economy.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.94% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices closed higher as markets repriced near term supply risk after the U.S. Coast Guard attempted to intercept a tanker near Venezuela and reports said Ukrainian drones damaged two vessels and piers in Russia’s Black Sea region. Brent settled at $62.07 a barrel, up $1.60, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended at $58.01, up $1.49. Analysts noted Venezuelan crude is about 1% of global supply and the Black Sea is key for Russian exports.
The Japanese yen strengthened as officials warned against one sided and sharp currency moves, signalling readiness for foreign exchange intervention. In afternoon trade the dollar fell 0.5% to 156.94 yen, after touching 156.71. The dollar index slipped 0.4% to 98.3, while the euro rose to $1.1753 and sterling to $1.3458. The euro briefly hit 184.92 yen and the Swiss franc 198.4 yen. The move followed the Bank of Japan rate rise to 0.75%.
Democratic attorneys general from 21 states and the District of Columbia filed suit in federal court in Oregon to block the Trump administration from defunding the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) by not requesting money from the Federal Reserve. They argue the decision is unlawful and violates the U.S. Constitution’s separation of powers. The CFPB has said its funds could run out in early 2026, after the administration cited Federal Reserve losses since 2022.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.96% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
China kept its benchmark loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged for a seventh straight month, in line with expectations. The one-year LPR stayed at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, signalling policymakers are in no hurry to ease as growth is seen meeting annual targets. Officials continue a cross-cyclical approach while facing property sector weakness and soft loan demand. Barclays and Nomura expect possible rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in early to mid 2026.
Gold pushed through $4,400 an ounce for the first time as markets priced in US Federal Reserve rate cuts and safe haven demand stayed firm. Spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,397.16 after touching a record $4,400.29, while futures traded at $4,430.30. Gold is up 67% year to date. Silver jumped 3.3% to $69.44 and is up 138% year to date.
Firm intervention by the Reserve Bank of India helped stabilise the rupee after it rebounded above 90 per US dollar on Friday and closed at 89.27, up more than 1% on the week. The currency had hit a record low of 91.075 on 16 December before recovering nearly 2% on swap operations and debt purchases. India’s 10-year yield ended at 6.6017%, with 6.56% to 6.65% seen as the near-term range.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.96% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
According to ING, the European Central Bank (ECB) does not need to change its policy in the near term following recent economic forecasts. The ECB expects growth of 1.4% this year, decreasing to 1.2% next year and 1.4% by 2028. The inflation forecast for 2026 has been adjusted from 1.7% to 1.9%. ING sees no reason for the ECB to alter its policy, as inflation and growth remain within expected ranges. However, Deutsche Bank questions whether divergent inflation expectations might justify future policy easing. Currently, interest rate hikes are not planned. Following the ECB’s rate decision, the euro/dollar exchange remained stable.
The Russian government has instructed Russian Railways to sell a 62-floor skyscraper in central Moscow, bought for $2.4 billion in 2024, to help reduce its $50 billion debt. As revenue declines with the slowing war economy and soaring interest rates, selling the “Moscow Towers” aims to prevent significant increases in cargo transport prices. While no decision has been made on other measures like debt restructuring or tax adjustments, converting debt into shares is still being considered. Russian Railways awaits a buyer amid economic stagnation, with anticipated growth dropping from 4.3% in 2024 to 1.0% this year.
Cuba is undergoing major transformations in its foreign exchange market, aiming to restore the convertibility of the Cuban peso and establish exchange rate and monetary convergence. To address distortions in different exchange rates, the Central Bank of Cuba plans to implement a structure with three exchange segments: two fixed rates and a third segment with a daily floating rate. This transition, starting as of yesterday, is designed to prevent sharp devaluations and stabilize the economy. Measures include strengthening MLC accounts and improving foreign trade for non-state entities. The reforms focus on regulating foreign currency flows, boosting exports, fostering investment, and enhancing economic safety through fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.92% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
UK inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in November from 3.6 per cent, undershooting forecasts and easing pressure on policymakers as growth weakens. Markets are close to fully pricing a quarter point rate cut to 3.75 per cent, with unemployment at 5.1 per cent and output down 0.1 per cent in October. Sterling slipped 0.7 per cent and two-year gilt yields fell to 3.73 per cent, reinforcing expectations of further easing.
Japan’s exports rose 6.1 per cent year on year in November, beating expectations on strong demand from the US and EU and a 13 per cent rise in semiconductor shipments. Imports grew just 1.3 per cent, pushing the trade balance to a 322bn yen surplus and supporting near term growth. Core machinery orders jumped 7 per cent month on month, reinforcing expectations of a fourth quarter recovery despite lingering uncertainty over trade with China.
Oil rebounded from a four and a half year low as US threats of tougher action against Russia and a blockade of Venezuelan oil lifted prices, with WTI rising up to 2.7% to almost $57 a barrel. Washington warned it could target Russian oil flows and ordered a naval blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan tankers, yet Venezuela accounts for under 1% of global supply, about 590,000 barrels a day. Markets stayed cautious as an expected surplus, the largest since the pandemic, left traders heavily short and capped the rally.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.93% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in over four years, according to delayed data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. October figures were missing due to the prolonged federal government shutdown, which also complicated the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. While unemployment increased, 64,000 new jobs were added in November, exceeding expectations of 50,000, though margins of error remain high. Wage growth slowed, with real income gains modest. Job cuts in the federal civil service have totalled 270,000 since January, nearly 10% of the workforce. Economists suggest these figures fuel speculation about further interest rate cuts to support the labour market, despite ongoing inflation concerns. Market reaction was muted, with the S&P 500 down 0.2%.
The European Commission is easing its emissions target for passenger cars and vans. Instead of a full ban on petrol and diesel cars after 2035, manufacturers may produce a limited number if they offset emissions through renewable fuels or green steel. The new goal is a 90% reduction in emissions rather than 100%. Brussels argues this flexibility will help achieve CO₂ targets cost-effectively, but environmental groups call it a setback. The car industry welcomes the change, citing slow EV adoption and insufficient charging infrastructure. Critics, including German economist Monika Schnitzer, warn that weaker targets create uncertainty and hinder investment in electric vehicles. The proposal still requires approval from the European Parliament and Council. Additionally, the Commission plans incentives for small electric cars made in Europe and obligations for large companies to green their fleets.
Brent oil prices have dropped below $60 per barrel for the first time since May, closing at $58.80 –over 25% lower than in January. The market is pricing in a potential Ukraine ceasefire, which could lift restrictions on Russian exports and ease logistical bottlenecks. Gas prices are also falling, down 54% since February. Despite sanctions, Russian oil exports remain high, but finding buyers is increasingly difficult, forcing longer shipping routes and lower prices – around $40 per barrel. Meanwhile, global supply is rising as Opec+ relaxes cuts and countries like Brazil and the US boost output, creating a surplus projected at 3.7 million barrels per day by 2026. The oil curve has shifted from backwardation to contango, signalling abundant supply and incentivising storage. Analysts warn markets may be moving too fast, as territorial disputes remain unresolved.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.92% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Netherlands has set maximum rent increases for 2026: private sector rental prices can rise by a maximum of 4.4%, mid-tier housing by 6.1%, and social housing by 4.1% starting July 2026. Additionally, from 2026, tenants in mid-tier and private rental housing will be eligible for housing allowances for the first time, which were previously only available for social housing tenants.
Global airlines are expected to achieve record net profits of $39.5 billion in 2025 and $41 billion in 2026, according to aviation industry body IATA, following recovery from the severe COVID-19 period. However, despite these record profits, the sector faces a challenge as profit margins of 3.9% remain too low to cover financing costs, with return on invested capital at 6.8% falling short of the estimated 8.2% financing costs.
Britain will begin regulating cryptocurrencies in October 2027 through new legislation that extends existing financial regulations to crypto companies, aligning the UK with the US approach rather than the EU’s specialized crypto rules. The government aims to provide regulatory clarity while protecting consumers and excluding “dodgy actors” from the market, as global interest in crypto has surged following Trump’s election promises to embrace the industry.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.92% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Iran has raised the price of subsidized gasoline for most users to curb rising fuel consumption and smuggling, while trying to avoid public unrest. Vehicles using more than 160 litres per month must now pay 50,000 rials per litre, though lower subsidized rates remain for smaller monthly amounts. Taxi fuel quotas are unchanged.
The final trading week before Christmas will focus on key U.S. macroeconomic data, including delayed employment and inflation figures, as well as interest-rate decisions by major central banks. The Fed has warned of a weakening U.S. labour market, while the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged, the Bank of England may cut rates, and the Bank of Japan is likely to raise them. The week also features major economic indicators from Europe and Asia and the tail end of the global earnings season.
The U.S. dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.1% to 98.44, but it remains on track for a third consecutive weekly decline amid expectations of Fed rate cuts next year. Sterling fell 0.2% to $1.3375 after data showed an unexpected UK economic contraction, while the dollar rose 0.2% to 155.93 yen ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting. The euro was flat at $1.1735.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.92% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
