U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in November, beating forecasts as car purchases rebounded and broader spending firmed, signalling solid fourth quarter momentum. Core sales increased 0.4% indicating GDP growth, while consumer outlays powered 4.3% annualized growth in the third quarter and point to resilience. Income divergence is widening as higher earners drive demand amid rising food prices.

UK borrowing costs have fallen to their lowest level in over a year as ten-year gilt yields slipped to 4.36 per cent, supported by easing inflation and expectations of further interest rate cuts. Markets now price an 80 per cent chance of two quarter point cuts this year, helping gilts outperform peers. The yield premium over Germany has narrowed below 1.6 percentage points, easing pressure on public finances despite high deficits.

Gold climbed to a record high as geopolitical tension and policy uncertainty drove flows into safe haven assets, reinforced by expectations of Federal Reserve easing. Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,635.99 an ounce while silver jumped 5.7% to $91.87 an ounce. Recent US data kept traders pricing two rate cuts this year, supporting nonyielding metals despite mixed growth signals.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.84% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

U.S. banks and financial institutions are opposing President Donald Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for a year, beginning January 20. They argue the cap could lead to restricted credit access, higher fees, reduced rewards, and could harm the economy, especially impacting subprime borrowers. The proposal lacks specifics and might require congressional action. According to the Electronic Payments Coalition, most credit card accounts with credit scores below 740 would be affected. Critics, including Morningstar analyst Michael Miller, doubt the cap’s implementation, citing potential profitability issues for credit card portfolios. However, a Vanderbilt University study suggests that such a cap could save Americans $100 billion annually, despite reducing rewards for some borrowers. Vanderbilt’s Brian Shearer argues that banks’ profit margins suggest room for interest rate cuts.

Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, shared concerns with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about the yen’s recent “one-sided depreciation,” as the yen briefly hit 158 per dollar. Japan is considering intervention to stabilize the currency, exacerbated by reports of a possible snap election in February. The election may give Prime Minister Takaichi a mandate for expansionary fiscal policy, but the weak yen increases import costs and affects household finances. Katayama emphasized the need for coordination with the U.S. if intervention is necessary. Japan argues that interventions are justified when currency moves deviate from economic fundamentals. Recent yen selling is expected to continue until the fiscal policy direction and election outcomes become clear. Japan’s last intervention occurred in July 2024 when the yen hit a 38-year low against the dollar.

Oil prices have surged to nearly $66 per barrel, the highest since late October, driven by massive protests in Iran against the regime and speculation of potential U.S. intervention. Four Greek oil tankers were hit by drones in the Black Sea, heightening concerns about supply disruptions. The oil price has risen almost 10% since last week, with traders seeking protection against price spikes via the options market. President Trump announced a 25% import tariff on countries trading with Iran, leading to speculation about further military action. Chinese refineries are major buyers of Iranian oil, raising concerns over China’s reaction to U.S. actions in the Middle East. Despite a market oversupply, disruptions in Iran and the Black Sea could lead to shortages. Iran has also threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route. Goldman Sachs forecasts potential price spikes but expects Brent to settle at $56 per barrel by year’s end.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Former Federal Reserve chairs Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan, joined by 10 other ex policy leaders, condemned the Trump administration’s criminal probe of Chair Jerome Powell as an unprecedented attempt to undermine central bank independence. They compared it to practices seen in emerging markets with weak institutions, warning of negative consequences for inflation and economic performance. The inquiry relates to Powell’s testimony on headquarters renovations, which he addressed in a rare video statement.

Oil settled at seven-week highs as markets weighed risks to Iranian exports. Brent crude futures rose 0.8% to $63.87 a barrel and WTI crude gained 0.6% to $59.50, the highest settlements since November 18 and December 5. Further gains were capped by expectations of higher supply from Venezuela, another sanctioned member of the OPEC, including talk of up to 50 million barrels going to the U.S.

Dutch consumer inflation slowed in December, according to final figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Headline inflation eased to 2.8% year on year from 2.9% in November, matching the flash estimate published on January 7. The largest downward contribution came from the price development of stays in bungalow parks. With December finalised, CBS reported full year 2025 inflation of 3.3% versus 2024.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.85% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

China could narrow its AI gap with the United States through greater risk-taking and innovation, according to leading Chinese researchers, although limited access to advanced chipmaking tools remains a major obstacle. Recent IPOs of Chinese AI firms signal growing confidence in the sector, while constrained computing resources are pushing companies to innovate by running large models on cheaper, less powerful hardware.

The coming week will focus on global inflation data and the start of the U.S. earnings season, led by major banks. Investors will watch U.S. inflation figures, the Fed’s Beige Book, and European inflation data, while weaker job growth is seen as giving the Federal Reserve room for another rate cut later this spring.

President Donald Trump said the United States will block any Venezuelan oil or money from going to Cuba and urged Havana to strike a deal with Washington, escalating pressure on the island after U.S. forces detained Venezuela’s president. Cuba rejected the threat, insisting on its right to import fuel from any supplier and vowing to defend its sovereignty, while Venezuela’s oil shipments to Cuba have already halted under the U.S. blockade.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.88% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has criticized U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump, warning against the disintegration of the world order into a “den of robbers” where the unscrupulous dominate. Addressing actions like the recent ousting of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, Steinmeier highlighted the unprecedented attack on global democracy. He noted the significance of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine, stating that U.S. actions represented a second historic rupture. Steinmeier called for active intervention in crises and urged countries like Brazil and India to help protect the world order.

Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, has announced intentions for a 150 basis point interest rate cut this year to support the U.S. labour market, based on underlying inflation expectations of around 2.3%. His proposal aligns with the Fed officials’ lowest projection for the federal funds rate by the end of 2026. The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, also emphasizes the necessity of rate cuts for economic growth. Fitch Ratings has raised its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, with expectations of rising inflation. Miran will conclude his term at the end of January and has felt pressure from the Trump administration for significant rate cuts.

The European Union aims to extract, process, and recycle more rare earth metals within Europe to reduce dependency on countries like China. Currently, Europe produces no rare earth metals, resulting in a significant reliance on China for critical industries such as wind turbines and electric vehicles. Plans to scale up mining in Europe face resistance from local communities, as seen in protests against mining projects in Germany and elsewhere. Despite challenges related to permitting and financing, like those faced by Zinnwald Lithium in Germany, the EU continues to pursue strategic partnerships and investments, such as the deal with Indonesia and the financing of the Lobito Corridor in Africa. European countries and companies stress the need for public support to address the challenges in this sector.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.88% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The U.S. has seized a Russian-flagged tanker linked to Venezuela as part of President Trump’s strategy to control oil flows in the Americas. With Venezuela’s leader Maduro deposed, the U.S. is blockading sanctioned vessels, escalating tensions with Russia and China. Trump aims to divert Venezuela’s oil from China, alleging U.S. bullying. China condemns these actions, while Trump plans to refine and sell Venezuelan oil to benefit both nations. Sources indicate negotiations for an export deal are progressing. Oil prices have fallen due to anticipated supply increases from Trump’s plan. Trump’s actions have been met with unease from Washington’s allies and condemnation from Venezuela’s leftist allies.

Major U.S. banks are expected to report higher fourth-quarter 2025 profits, driven by a rebound in investment banking revenue due to increased merger and acquisition activities. Analysts expect broad credit growth and improved net interest margins to support bank profits, with forecasts for solid economic growth and stable inflation. The S&P bank index has risen by 3% this year so far.

Unemployment in Germany has reached the highest level since 2013, with 2.9 million job seekers in December, representing 6.3% of the workforce. In 2025, unemployment increased by 161,000 people. Despite stimulus packages from the German government aimed at reviving the construction sector, Andrea Nahles, head of the employment agency, does not anticipate a significant improvement in the labour market in 2026. In comparison, unemployment in the Netherlands is 4% of the workforce.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

US military intervention in Venezuela and related political developments boosted investor confidence, leading to gains in major stock indices. Oil companies saw sharp price increases as investors anticipated renewed access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. Defence firms also benefited from expectations of increased military spending. Despite geopolitical uncertainty, markets remained optimistic, with technology and broader sectors also posting gains.

The United States secured an exemption from the global minimum tax of 15% agreed upon by over 130 countries. This allows the US to apply its own minimum tax system, which calculates an average tax rate across jurisdictions rather than applying the 15% rate per country. The move gives US multinationals a competitive advantage compared to firms in regions like the EU, where the OECD rules apply strictly. Critics argue this undermines the original goal of limiting tax competition. The agreement also reduces expected tax revenues for some countries and introduces more flexibility for economic activity incentives.

Analysts predict that in 2026, investors will seek undervalued opportunities outside highly priced technology stocks due to fears of an AI-driven bubble. Small-cap stocks are expected to rebound as interest rates decline, while gold may continue its strong performance supported by central bank buying. Healthcare and financial sectors are forecast to grow, aided by policy changes and efficiency gains. Emerging markets could attract inflows thanks to a weaker dollar and improved stability, though political risks remain. High-yield bonds and event contracts are also anticipated to gain traction, with the latter becoming a fast-growing asset class despite regulatory scrutiny.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.91% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Copper jumped to records above $13,000 per metric ton, supported by expectations of strong demand growth from data centres linked to artificial intelligence and electric vehicles. Supply concerns were reinforced by disruptions at mines in Indonesia and Chile. Citibank estimates a 308,000 ton refined copper deficit this year. U.S. copper stocks on Commodity Exchange surged 400% since April as traders positioned ahead of potential tariffs.

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco argues 2025’s sharp tariff increases may push inflation lower while lifting unemployment, based on 150 years of data for the U.S., France and the UK. The average U.S. import tariff rose to 17% in 2025, up from under 3% at end 2024, the highest since 1935.

Oil eased as traders focused on ample supply and weak demand. Brent fell 0.2% to $61.62 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.3% to $58.13. Energy Information Administration data shows supply outpacing consumption growth, pushing inventories higher. Markets also assessed whether Venezuela could raise output if sanctions ease after the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro, with analysts citing potential additional production of up to 500,000 bpd over two years.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.93% compared to previous business day.

U.S. stocks started 2026 higher as the Dow and S&P 500 snapped a four-day losing streak, led by strong gains in chipmakers like Nvidia and Intel, as well as Boeing. While tech heavyweights and consumer stocks limited broader gains, investors remain focused on Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and upcoming labour market data, with optimism that easier policy later in the year could support all sectors.

Oil prices declined slightly after U.S. actions against Venezuela. Additional future Venezuelan supply could decrease oil prices, adding to global supply and spare capacity elsewhere.

European stock markets closed higher on the first trading day of the year, led by gains in technology and defense shares. Optimism in equities contrasted with weak euro zone manufacturing data.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.96% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

On the final trading day of 2025, markets were quiet as investors wrapped up the year early, with shortened opening hours and some exchanges closed. The AEX hovered around 951 points after minor fluctuations. Focus was on the Federal Reserve’s December minutes, which revealed divisions over the recent rate cut and uncertainty about future policy. In 2025 commodities saw sharp moves, with gold and silver posting their strongest annual gains since 1979, oil prices falling, and Bitcoin ending the year down 5%. The euro closed at $1.17 after a volatile year. Overall, trading remained subdued, with investors postponing new positions until 2026. Meanwhile, Asian markets opened the new year on a strong note: the Hang Seng index surged over 2.5%, driven by technology and AI stocks after a breakthrough in cheaper AI development. Optimism also spread to India’s Nifty 50 and Korea’s Kospi, which posted solid gains.

Argentina faces urgent financial pressure as it must repay $4.3 billion in government loans by 9 January but currently has only $1.9 billion available. The Minister of Economic Affairs is exploring options such as short-term loans from international banks and tapping into a $20 billion foreign exchange arrangement with the US Treasury. Whether additional US support will be provided remains uncertain, adding to ongoing economic challenges for Argentina.

China’s president announced that the economy will meet its 2025 growth target of 5%, calling the year “extraordinary” despite pressures from slowing retail growth, falling house prices, and a real estate crisis. Xi Jinping emphasised resilience and innovation and promised more proactive policies in 2026 to boost long-term growth. However, doubts persist about the reliability of official figures, with independent analysts estimating actual growth closer to 2.5–3%, citing prolonged deflation and structural weaknesses.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.92% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.