The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, citing solid growth and still elevated inflation, and offered no guidance on when easing may resume. Two policymakers voted for a 25-basis point cut, while unemployment fell to 4.4 percent and labour risks were judged more balanced. Markets edged lower, with the 10-year yield rising to about 4.26 percent and futures pricing the next cut in mid June.
India’s industrial output surged to a two year high in December, with production up 7.8 percent year on year, led by broad based gains in manufacturing, mining and power. Manufacturing rose 8.1 percent while mining grew 6.8 percent, as November growth was revised up to 7.2 percent, signalling strong late year momentum. The picture is softer over time, with output up 3.9 percent in April to December, slightly below last year’s pace.
Gold surged above $5,300 an ounce, extending a rally driven by dollar weakness and an investor retreat from bonds and currencies. Gold is up about 22% this year, with silver nearly 60%, as a 1.1% drop in the dollar index and bets on lower interest rates lift non yielding assets. Fiscal and geopolitical strains, including bond market selloffs, have intensified flows into precious metals.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.88% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in January to its lowest level since May 2014, as concerns about a weakening labor market and high prices intensified. The Conference Board index dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, well below expectations, with perceptions of job availability at a near five-year low. Despite this, the Federal Reserve is still expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and markets reacted calmly.
India and the European Union have reached a long-awaited trade agreement that will sharply cut tariffs on most goods, covering 96.6% of EU exports to India and 99.5% of Indian exports to the EU over time. The deal is expected to double EU exports to India by 2032 and save European companies about €4 billion in duties, while opening up India’s tightly protected market. Agriculture products are largely excluded from the agreement.
French cognac producers plan to uproot vineyards to reduce output as demand for the spirit has dropped sharply due to trade tensions and tariffs. Growers will receive up to €10,000 per hectare in compensation, as total cognac sales have fallen by more than a third over the past three years to around 140 million bottles in 2025. While new trade deals may open markets, industry leaders say it will take time for demand to recover.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.90% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
India and the European Union finalised a trade deal after nearly two decades of talks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the pact represents about 25% of global GDP and one third of global trade, and will open India’s market to freer trade with the 27 nation EU. Bilateral trade was $136.5 billion in the fiscal year through March 2025. Narendra Modi and Ursula von der Leyen are due to share details at an India EU summit in New Delhi.
Bond investors are edging into riskier positions as the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. Futures imply about 44 basis points of easing in 2026, down from roughly 53 two weeks earlier. Managers are extending duration and selectively buying corporate credit, but valuations look rich. U.S. investment grade spreads were about 73 basis points over Treasuries, near the tightest levels since the late 1990s.
UK inflation expectations rose to a three-month high in Citi and YouGov’s January survey. One-year expectations increased to 3.8% from 3.6%, while longer term expectations climbed to 4.1% from 3.8%. The move followed December consumer price inflation rising to 3.4% from 3.2% in November. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey expects inflation near 2% by April or May, yet wage concerns persist. Markets price a quarter point BoE cut by June.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.89% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US President Donald Trump warned that he would impose 100 percent tariffs on Canadian imports if Canada pursued trade arrangements that could enable Chinese goods to enter the United States through Canadian channels. Canada recently worked to ease certain trade barriers with China to diversify its economic relationships as the United States is increasingly seen as less reliable. Canadian minister Dominic LeBlanc stressed that no free trade agreement with China exists and that recent talks concerned only specific import duty issues. The threat followed a tense week marked by Trump’s shifting tariff threats toward Europe and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s comments in Davos about a fracture in the global order, which Trump interpreted as criticism.
The rising gold price has boosted activity in Switzerland, a global hub for gold storage and refining, where companies such as Swiss Reserve and Valcambi are seeing high demand as investors seek safe assets amid geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about U.S. policies. Switzerland’s secure Alpine vaults and major refineries reinforce its central role in the gold market, though there are concerns about gold from conflict regions like Sudan entering the supply chain. Demand from both large and small investors has surged, production volumes have increased.
Last week, the S&P 500 declined by 0.4 percent, marking its second consecutive weekly loss as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision and the start of earnings season. Despite the weekly drop, the index ended the final trading day nearly unchanged with a slight gain, while the Nasdaq closed higher and the Dow Jones moved lower. U.S. consumer confidence reached a five month high, although it remains well below levels from a year earlier due to concerns about high prices and labour market uncertainty. Intel’s shares dropped 17 percent as the company struggles with AI chip competition and production issues, while Microsoft gained 3.3 percent after resolving a cloud service outage that affected platforms including Outlook.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.93% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European leaders expressed relief but remained alert after the United States withdrew its threat of new import tariffs linked to tensions over Greenland, stressing that despite the de-escalation after talks between Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the geopolitical order is shifting, the relationship with the US has become more volatile, and unresolved issues around Greenland persist. Leaders emphasized that Europe must prepare more quickly for strategic autonomy, including the ability to respond firmly if pressured again, and urged a renewed focus on the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Ukraine, where Russian attacks on energy infrastructure combined with harsh winter conditions are leaving the population in growing desperation.
Financial markets rallied strongly after Trump unexpectedly stepped back from his tariff threats toward several European countries, creating a brief sense of stability that pushed major indices in Europe, Asia, and the United States higher and lifted the AEX above 1000 points. Investors shifted their attention back to corporate earnings as sectors such as steel, private equity, and semiconductors climbed, while commodities and the dollar stabilized following days of volatility, even though geopolitical uncertainty persisted, illustrated by Trump’s renewed warning that the US might retaliate if European countries attempted to sell American assets.
The expected increase in purchasing power for Dutch households has been revised downward, with Nibud now anticipating an average rise of 0.9 percent instead of the 1.3 percent projected on Budget Day, largely due to lower-than-expected wage growth, as collective labor agreement wages are forecast to rise 3.7 percent rather than 4.2 percent. Most of the 117 model households still experience an improvement, with employees seeing the largest gains, though their expected increase has dropped sharply from an average of 88 euros to 51 euros per month, while five household types, mostly lower-income self-employed individuals, now face a loss in purchasing power compared with earlier forecasts.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.90% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Trump abruptly suspended planned tariffs on Europe after markets were unsettled by threats of 10 percent duties from February rising to 25 percent by June. The shift followed a tentative NATO backed framework, easing pressure after the EU weighed retaliatory measures of up to $108bn. Trade relations remain uncertain as legal challenges to US tariffs await court rulings.
Japan’s bond market jolted as 30-year yields jumped 0.25 percentage points in a day and 40-year yields crossed 4 percent, reflecting fears of fiscal loosening amid an election call. Foreign investors now account for 53 percent of demand for long dated debt, up from 22 percent pre pandemic, while inflation has exceeded the 2 percent target for almost four years. With the policy rate at 0.75 percent and markets pricing a move toward 1 to 2.5 percent, rising yields are colliding with expansionary fiscal plans and debt at 130 percent of GDP.
US Supreme Court justices signalled scepticism over efforts to remove a Federal Reserve governor, warning the move could undermine central bank independence and unsettle markets. In a hearing lasting just under two hours, judges from across the bench highlighted risks to monetary credibility and investor confidence. A ruling favouring presidential control could raise policy uncertainty and market volatility.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.91% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The gas market in Amsterdam has been abruptly awakened from its winter slumber. The price of gas, which had been in gradual decline towards €20 per MWh due to new lng-import facilities and ample supply, has surged dramatically to a value of €36 per MWh. This increase was triggered by mass protests in Iran and the threat of U.S. intervention, leading to a geopolitical risk premium in trade futures. Traders, who had bet on further price decreases, were forced to quickly adjust their positions, further driving up prices. Additionally, a cold Siberian front increased demand, contributing to the price hike. The market is currently highly volatile, exacerbated by concerns of a potential trade war with the U.S. that could impact gas prices further.
According to the ZEW institute’s monthly confidence index, optimism among German investors is at its highest since mid-2021. The index rose from 45.8 in December to 59.6 in January, exceeding the expected 50. This optimism is driven by anticipated government investments aimed at revitalizing the German manufacturing industry. Germany’s economy grew by 0.2% in Q4 2025, and analysts expect further growth due to infrastructure and defense stimulus packages. Despite previous challenges with high energy costs, declining demand, and competition, these new government initiatives offer hope. Recent tensions over Greenland were only partly factored into the ZEW survey.
In 2026, activist investors plan to be more aggressive in pushing companies toward mergers and acquisitions (M&A) or breakups, aiming for faster and more profitable returns. The trend was evident in the second half of 2025, with 54% of activist campaigns demanding M&A, up from 35% in the first half. The M&A market saw its second-best year in 2025, with $5.1 trillion in deals, and activists are targeting small- and mid-cap companies for potential sales. With high demand for corporate restructuring, established and new activist investors are expected to drive significant changes in 2026.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.88% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Gold and silver jumped to record highs after United States President Donald Trump threatened extra tariffs on European countries unless they agreed to sell Greenland. Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,666.65 an ounce after touching $4,689.39, while U.S. futures traded near $4,671.40. Silver climbed 4% to $93.50 after hitting $94.08. Platinum gained 1.1% to $2,353.25 and palladium edged up 0.2% to $1,804.06.
Russia said its 2025 budget deficit reached 5.6 trillion roubles ($72.12 billion), or 2.6% of gross domestic product, the highest GDP share since 2020. Revenues totalled 37.28 trillion roubles, 7.5% below the initial target, as oil and gas income fell 24% to the lowest since 2020. Spending rose 6.8% year on year to 42.93 trillion roubles despite measures such as a higher value-added tax.
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a 200% tariff on French wines and champagnes to pressure President Emmanuel Macron to join his proposed Board of Peace. France intends to decline for now, according to a source close to Macron, while other governments worry the initiative could undermine the United Nations. A draft charter was sent to about 60 countries and proposes a $1 billion contribution to keep membership beyond three years. Trump also said he invited Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.87% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European leaders strongly condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on several European countries, including the Netherlands, to pressure Europe over Greenland, calling it blackmail and unacceptable intimidation. EU officials warned the move could escalate into a broader trade conflict affecting all member states and damage transatlantic relations, with countermeasures now being considered if diplomacy fails.
The Amsterdam stock market broke through the 1,000-point level last week, driven mainly by strong gains in semiconductor stocks such as Besi, ASML and ASMI after upbeat updates and analyst upgrades. While several industrial and mid-cap stocks also advanced, declines in names like Heineken, Randstad and Air France-KLM reflected company-specific challenges and rising cost concerns.
The coming trading week will focus on the ongoing earnings season alongside key macro data from China, the U.S. and Europe, including delayed PCE inflation figures. Markets will also react to President Trump’s newly announced tariffs on several European countries, while central bank decisions, major corporate results and geopolitical trade tensions are expected to drive sentiment.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The AEX index has surpassed the 1000-point threshold, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence and strong gains in semiconductor stocks. The rally reflects investor confidence in accelerating economic growth, despite geopolitical tensions and three consecutive years of positive returns, which historically should signal caution. Analysts warn that high valuations in technology and semiconductor sectors evoke memories of the dotcom bubble, raising questions about the sustainability of current market optimism. Meanwhile, other major European indices, including those in London, Brussels, Frankfurt, Paris, and Madrid, also reached record highs, as markets remain focused on growth and profit expectations rather than global political uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve faces an escalating threat to its independence as political pressure from President Trump intensifies. After years of restraint, Jerome Powell publicly pushed back against what he called “pretexts” and intimidation linked to a Justice Department investigation into renovation costs, framing the issue as a struggle over whether monetary policy remains free from political interference. While markets have reacted only mildly, assuming Trump will fail to dominate interest rate decisions, Powell’s resistance signals that the conflict is far from over. Trump appears determined to influence rate-setting, and the Fed’s independence now relies heavily on Congress and the judiciary, as internal confidence in those safeguards seems to be waning.
The United States and Taiwan have finalised a trade agreement that reduces import duties on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15%, aligning Taiwan with Japan and South Korea under similar arrangements. As part of the deal, Taiwan will invest at least $250 billion in the US, primarily through Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), focusing on semiconductor production, energy projects, and artificial intelligence. Additionally, Taiwan will provide $250 billion in credit guarantees to support further investment in the US semiconductor supply chain, strengthening bilateral economic ties and technological collaboration.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.83% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
