Strong January employment data strengthened the case for a patient Federal Reserve, with payrolls rising 130,000 versus a 70,000 forecast and unemployment edging down to 4.3%. Rate futures cut the implied chance of an April easing to about 20%, while a June move is now seen as uncertain as policymakers keep rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. Last year’s job growth averaged just 15,000 a month, underscoring lingering fragility despite the recent pickup.

China inflation cooled in January as weak demand persisted, complicating the recovery. CPI rose 0.2% year on year, down from 0.8% in December, while PPI fell 1.4%, extending a long deflationary run and pressuring profits. Policymakers signal further easing after modest results, with consumption subdued despite a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025.

A sharp selloff in software stocks is freezing deal making and IPO activity as volatile valuations deter buyers and sellers. The sector is down about 25 percent from its October peak, posting its worst three month run since 2002, while the broader equity market is slightly higher. With many firms trading near one times forward revenue, advisers warn deals are stalling or breaking as uncertainty linked to artificial intelligence clouds price discovery.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.81% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The European Parliament has expressed support for the digital euro, a project by the European Central Bank (ECB) that offers both online and offline functionality. This approval is crucial as the planned launch in 2029 depends on parliamentary consent. The initiative aims to strengthen EU monetary sovereignty and reduce dependency on non-European payment providers like Visa and Mastercard and has faced resistance from banking lobbyists and delays in parliament. MEPs have endorsed amendments advocating equal access to payment services and a secure digital euro backed by central bank currency. The parliament also urged the ECB to enhance oversight of crypto assets to prevent exclusion scenarios.

France saw a decline in wine and spirits exports for the third consecutive year due to U.S. tariffs and Chinese antidumping measures, according to trade group FEVS. Total exports fell by 8% to €14.3 billion. Sales to the U.S., affected by a 15% tariff, dropped 21% to €3 billion. Exports to China fell 20% to €767 million due to antidumping actions, impacting brandy exports like cognac, which saw a 15% drop in volume and a 24% drop in value. While exports to other European countries remained stable, there was growth in markets such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Australia, and South Africa. Last year, U.S. President Trump threatened 200% tariffs on EU beverages as a response to EU tariffs, using this as leverage to influence French President Macron.

U.S. retail sales remained unchanged in December, raising concerns about potential slower economic growth. Households reduced spending on motor vehicles and other high-value items, which could signal fatigue amid rising living costs partially due to tariffs. Despite a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in retail sales, adjusted data for prior months showed declines. Challenges arose from last year’s government shutdown and seasonal adjustments. Auto dealership sales dropped, with further declines expected, while furniture, electronics, and clothing sales also fell. Higher-income households are primarily driving spending while lower-income households struggle with low wage growth. Core retail sales, excluding specific categories, showed a decline. Slowing wage growth and declining job openings suggest potential challenges ahead. Economists anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in the first half of the year.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.82% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

ECB President Christine Lagarde told European lawmakers that euro zone inflation is expected to stabilise at the ECB’s 2% target in the medium term, after a temporary dip below 2% in 2026. She stressed the uncertain circumstances and said the ECB will stay data-dependent, taking decisions meeting by meeting to preserve flexibility as conditions evolve.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.8% to 1.3565 per US dollar, a 10-day high, helped by broad US dollar weakness and improved sentiment. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed speculators turned net long, at 2,130 contracts as of 3 February, for the first time since August 2023. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5%, a 16-month low, which markets read as reducing pressure for further rate cuts.

The OPEC output slipped by 60,000 barrels per day in January to 28.34 million barrels per day, as declines in Nigeria and Libya outweighed increases elsewhere. Libya’s supply was hit by adverse weather, while Nigeria posted the largest drop. The survey notes OPEC+ paused monthly output increases for Q1 to avoid a potential glut, with some members near capacity.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.85% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Indian refiners are avoiding new purchases of Russian oil for April deliveries and may stay away longer, a move that could support efforts to finalise a U.S.–India trade deal. The shift follows a framework agreement with Washington and President Trump’s claim that India has committed to halting Russian oil imports, though New Delhi has made no formal announcement. India had become Russia’s biggest buyer after the Ukraine invasion, but most refiners have now paused such purchases unless directed otherwise by the government.

Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are set to invest about $650 billion this year, mainly in data centres, marking an intense arms race in artificial intelligence. Bloomberg compares the scale of these investments to the dotcom boom and even the build-out of the U.S. railway network in the 19th century, as companies race to secure market share in a still-young AI market. By contrast, 21 other major companies across the wider economy are expected to invest about $180 billion combined.

The Amsterdam AEX fell below 1,000 points last week as investor concerns grew over the impact of artificial intelligence and the massive AI investment plans announced by U.S. tech giants. The index closed at 995.35 points, down 0.6% on the week, as fears mounted that the roughly $650 billion in planned AI spending may not be fully recouped. Despite the decline, analysts note that today’s tech companies are financially stronger than during the dot-com bubble, though volatility in tech and chip stocks remains high.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

On Thursday, commodities, led by silver, experienced a significant sell-off as geopolitical tensions eased, notably with the U.S. and Iran agreeing to talks, and after a positive call between the U.S. and China. Silver plunged by as much as 15%. This movement was part of a broader market sell-off where speculative positions were reduced following recent record highs. A stronger U.S. dollar further pressured commodities, making them more expensive for foreign investors. and oil prices dropped more than $1 per barrel, despite the decline, oil prices stayed near multi-month highs amid concerns over potential disruptions from the Middle East. Copper retreated from record highs due to demand concerns and increasing warehouse stocks.

The U.S. dollar, traditionally a safe haven in uncertain times, has been under pressure since President Donald Trump’s second term. The dollar has lost 15% against the euro and recently exceeded $1.20 per euro. Ongoing shocks from U.S. trade and geopolitical policies continue to impact the dollar. Countries like China are reducing their reliance on the dollar by promoting the renminbi for international transactions. Rising yields on U.S. Treasury bonds indicate a higher risk premium despite Federal Reserve rate cuts. Although some investors are shifting to Europe, the dollar remains a dominant reserve currency. Central banks continue to hold significant dollar reserves, while gold has surpassed the euro as a reserve asset.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has again decided to keep the interest rate in the eurozone unchanged at 2%, aligning with economists’ predictions. The eurozone economy is “resilient” and grew by 1.5% last year, despite tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump. December inflation was at 1.7%, with the ECB bank targeting 2%. ECB policymakers unanimously decided not to change the rate, with President Christine Lagarde stating that inflation and growth risks are largely balanced. Similarly, the Bank of England held its rate at 3.75% after four previous cuts.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

UK grocery price inflation slowed to 4% in the four weeks to January 25th of this year, the lowest since April 2025, as households traded down to own brand and discounted goods. Promotional spending rose 10.9% year on year while full price sales grew just 1.7%, with own brand products taking more than half of total grocery spend, a record share. Despite easing momentum, food prices are still rising faster than overall inflation, underscoring continued pressure on household budgets.

Australia’s central bank lifted the cash rate to 3.85 percent from 3.6, judging inflation pressures persistent as demand ran stronger than expected, marking the first major hike of the year. Three-year bond yields rose 5 basis points to 4.34 and the currency climbed to 69.92 US cents, while trimmed mean inflation hit 3.4 percent and unemployment hovered near 4.1 percent. Forecasts for growth and jobs were raised, though economists see the move as a likely one off.

French inflation fell to a five-year low as energy prices dropped, undershooting the ECB target. Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent year on year in January, down from 0.7 percent and below a 0.6 percent forecast, the weakest pace since late 2020. With euro area inflation near 2 percent, policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged today.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.88% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The United States is preparing to issue licenses that would allow companies to pump oil in Venezuela, following earlier permissions to buy and sell Venezuelan crude. The move aligns with Washington’s attempt to support the country’s damaged economy, which has suffered from mismanagement and sanctions despite its vast oil reserves. After Nicolás Maduro’s imprisonment, leadership shifted to Delcy Rodríguez, who has openly rejected U.S. pressure. Although the U.S. aims to stimulate the Venezuelan economic recovery, political tensions remain high.

European banks have tightened lending standards for businesses and consumers due to heightened risk perception and reduced appetite for uncertainty linked to global trade tensions. Mortgage lending was a rare exception, where conditions slightly eased. Several key sectors, including construction, retail and wholesale trade, energy intensive industries, commercial real estate and automotive manufacturing, faced stricter credit conditions. The European Central Bank notes that concerns over the economic outlook remain strong, and banks expect further tightening ahead. These developments will influence the ECB’s upcoming interest rate decision, with economists suggesting that current conditions support holding rates steady at 2%. 

Significant uncertainty surrounds the trade arrangements the U.S. president claims to have reached with India, as only a tariff reduction to 18% has been confirmed by New Delhi, while broader commitments such as eliminating trade barriers, ending Russian oil purchases and expanding U.S. imports remain unverified. Experts doubt the feasibility of these claims, particularly regarding agricultural tariffs, which are politically sensitive and employ a large workforce. Indian farmers’ groups have already begun protesting potential concessions, and analysts question whether India would overhaul its oil imports or trade policies in exchange for limited U.S. steps. Despite the ambiguity, Indian markets reacted positively.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.90% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

France’s manufacturing sector expanded in January as the HCOB France Manufacturing final Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 from 50.7, above the flash 51.0 and the highest since June 2022. S&P Global said output growth was supported by increased European defence and military spending linked to the war in Ukraine. Hamburg Commercial Bank’s Jonas Feldhusen said the push for strategic autonomy in defence could keep supporting activity in 2026.

QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said rising electricity demand from AI and data centres could turn a projected global liquefied natural gas oversupply into a shortage by 2030. He also cited stronger fuel demand in Asia and Europe’s need to replace Russian gas. Major LNG supply additions are expected in 2026 to 2029, but executives at the LNG2026 conference said demand may still outpace supply, with some forecasting a doubling by 2050.

Bitcoin selling accelerated alongside broader risk-asset declines, with investors liquidating $2.56 billion, according to CoinGlass. Reuters said bitcoin fell from a recent peak above $126,000 and was trading around $78,396. Analysts linked the move to deteriorating risk sentiment that also hit equities and precious metals. Reported catalysts included disappointing Microsoft earnings that raised doubts about the AI trade and President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, seen as favouring tighter policy.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.88% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

OPEC+ countries are sticking to their current production cap despite a recent rise in Brent crude prices from below $60 to around $70 per barrel. Eight producers raised output by about 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, but further planned increases for early 2026 have been frozen due to weaker demand. Recent supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and geopolitical tensions involving Iran have helped push oil prices higher.

Bitcoin fell 6.5% to about $78,720 on Saturday, extending losses after hitting its lowest level since late November as the U.S. dollar strengthened. The decline followed the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, sparking fears of tighter liquidity, which tends to weigh on cryptocurrencies. Ether dropped nearly 12%, and bitcoin has now lost about a third of its value since its October record high.

The Amsterdam AEX index briefly hit a record above 1,017 points last week but slipped back to around 1,000, ending the week up 0.2% and January more than 5% higher. Markets were driven by corporate earnings, notably ASML, mixed reactions to U.S. Big Tech results, record highs in the S&P 500 and gold, and sharp volatility in silver and oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, while investors also digested news of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed chair and a new EU–India trade deal.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

In November, U.S. factory orders increased by 2.7%, exceeding expectations, following a 1.2% decline in October, according to U.S. government data. The initial estimate for October was a 1.3% drop. The recovery in November was stronger than anticipated. Excluding transportation, there was a 0.2% increase, and without defense, orders rose by 3.2%.

 

Copper prices have surged to over $14,000 per metric ton, a record high, creating a dilemma for investors considering whether to push the market higher. On the London Metal Exchange, copper prices jumped 11% fuelled by speculators, marking the biggest one-day gain since November 2008. Despite predictions of a price correction due to high inventories and weak physical demand, some bullish funds continue to invest in copper to hedge against a weak U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions. However, copper’s reliance on industrial demand, which is weakening at current prices, suggests potential volatility. In China, demand for physical copper is low, with prices on the spot market at a discount compared to the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Analysts predict the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday might trigger a market correction.

 

Indonesian authorities rushed to stabilize the stock market after an 8% selloff over two days, prompted by concerns about ownership and trading transparency highlighted by MSCI. The selloff wiped $80 billion from the market, with foreign capital outflow driven by worries over President Prabowo Subianto’s fiscal policies and central bank appointments. Regulators have responded by doubling free-float requirements and engaging positively with MSCI. Despite a modest recovery, investor sentiment remains fragile, and investment banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS have downgraded Indonesian stocks. MSCI has warned of a possible downgrade to frontier market status, which could lead to significant capital outflows. Analysts believe such a downgrade is unlikely but acknowledge ongoing risks until fiscal discipline and transparency improve.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.