US President Donald Trump used his unusually long State of the Union address to present the United States as more prosperous and powerful than ever, highlighting economic progress and a strict migration stance in an effort to reassure voters ahead of the Congressional elections. Although inflation has eased and markets are performing well, many lower‑income households still struggle with the cost of living, making economic reassurance central to his message. Foreign policy played only a minor role, and the evening was marked by strong political division, with enthusiastic Republican applause contrasting with Democrats walking out or accusing him of presenting an overly positive and inaccurate picture.

Despite Trump repeatedly shifting his proposed import tariff levels within a matter of days following a Supreme Court ruling that voided the existing measures, Wall Street ended in positive territory. The rapid sequence of announcements, moving from 10 percent to 15 percent, back to 10 percent and then signalling a return to 15 percent, created uncertainty but ultimately did not shake investor confidence. Attention shifted instead to a broad rebound in technology shares after a pessimistic AI scenario that had triggered earlier market volatility was publicly dismissed as unrealistic by a senior White House economist, restoring calm across the sector.

Asian markets opened strongly, with record levels reached in Japan and South Korea and solid gains across China. The rally was driven in part by rising commodity and rare‑earth stocks after reports that the Trump administration aims to apply AI to help establish reference prices for critical minerals. Technology shares also benefited from broader optimism linked to AI‑related developments, while regional currencies strengthened against a weakening US dollar. Globally, investors prepared for a dense round of earnings updates in both Europe and the United States, particularly within the technology sector, as markets regained momentum following earlier trade and AI‑related concerns.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.73% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

US President Donald Trump used his unusually long State of the Union address to present the United States as more prosperous and powerful than ever, highlighting economic progress and a strict migration stance in an effort to reassure voters ahead of the Congressional elections. Although inflation has eased and markets are performing well, many lower income households still struggle with the cost of living, making economic reassurance central to his message. Foreign policy played only a minor role, and the evening was marked by strong political division, with enthusiastic Republican applause contrasting with Democrats walking out or accusing him of presenting an overly positive and inaccurate picture.

Despite Trump repeatedly shifting his proposed import tariff levels within a matter of days following a Supreme Court ruling that voided the existing measures, Wall Street ended in positive territory. The rapid sequence of announcements, moving from 10 percent to 15 percent, back to 10 percent and then signalling a return to 15 percent, created uncertainty but ultimately did not shake investor confidence. Attention shifted instead to a broad rebound in technology shares after a pessimistic AI scenario that had triggered earlier market volatility was publicly dismissed as unrealistic by a senior White House economist, restoring calm across the sector.

Asian markets opened strongly, with record levels reached in Japan and South Korea and solid gains across China. The rally was driven in part by rising commodity and rare earth stocks after reports that the Trump administration aims to apply AI to help establish reference prices for critical minerals. Technology shares also benefited from broader optimism linked to AI related developments, while regional currencies strengthened against a weakening US dollar. Globally, investors prepared for a dense round of earnings updates in both Europe and the United States, particularly within the technology sector, as markets regained momentum following earlier trade and AI related concerns.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.73% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The UK government said it does not expect the new 15% US global tariff to affect most of last year’s UK US economic deal. London raised concerns with the US Trade Representative about uncertainty for businesses, while stressing that agreed tariff terms for steel, pharmaceuticals and cars should remain intact. Officials said talks will continue this week and did not rule out retaliation, adding that nothing is off the table.

ECB President Christine Lagarde repeated that euro area inflation and the ECB’s interest rate stance are in a “good place”, signalling no immediate policy shift. Speaking in Washington, she underlined that the Governing Council will keep reassessing conditions step by step. Lagarde added the ECB must remain agile and ready to act if the outlook changes, keeping flexibility while maintaining the current baseline.

The US held talks in Geneva with a Russian delegation on Monday and is set to meet a Chinese delegation on Tuesday as it explores a potential multilateral nuclear arms control treaty. Washington wants a broader framework after the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expired. It remains unclear whether Tuesday’s session will be formal negotiations, after China’s disarmament envoy previously said Beijing would not join new talks “at this stage”

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

A senior ECB policymaker warned that inflation risks in the eurozone are significant in both directions, despite inflation falling to 1.7% in January, below the ECB’s 2% target. Fabio Panetta said the impact of rising, cheaper Chinese imports, up 27% in volume with prices down 8%, could further dampen inflation, while energy markets and geopolitical tensions pose upside risks. He stressed that monetary policy should remain flexible and data-dependent in the coming months.

The AEX rose 2.4% last week to a record 1,017.66 points after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled President Trump’s import tariffs unlawful, though he quickly announced plans for a new 15% global tariff. U.S. growth slowed sharply to 1.4% in the fourth quarter from 4.4% previously, reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, rising tensions with Iran pushed oil prices higher, and analysts warned that further escalation could lift oil further and weigh on the euro.

OpenAI plans to spend about $600 billion on computing infrastructure through 2030 as it prepares for a potential IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion. The company generated $13 billion in revenue in 2025 while spending $8 billion, and is seeking over $100 billion in new funding, including a reported $30 billion investment from Nvidia, which could value it at around $830 billion. However, rising inference costs have pressured profitability, with adjusted gross margins falling to 33% from 40% a year earlier.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.75% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Consumer confidence in the eurozone improved slightly in February, according to preliminary data from the European Commission. The index rose by 0.2 points to -12.2, though the increase was smaller than markets had expected. Confidence remains below its long-term average.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply by 9.0 million barrels to 419.8 million barrels in the week ending February 13, according to the EIA. Gasoline stocks declined by 3.2 million barrels and distillate inventories dropped by 4.6 million barrels. Meanwhile, refinery utilisation rose from 89.4% to 91.0%.

Solar panel manufacturers are accelerating efforts to replace silver with cheaper alternatives such as copper after silver prices surged about 130–147% over the past year, hitting a record $121.64 per ounce before easing. Silver paste accounts for roughly 30% of solar cell costs, significantly squeezing margins, while copper trades at a fraction of silver’s price. Switching to copper-based technologies could save the industry an estimated $15 billion annually, though technical challenges remain due to silver’s superior conductivity.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.76% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Investors digest a busy earnings day, with Airbus guiding for 870 aircraft deliveries in 2026, slightly below expectations. Nestle reported 2025 sales of 89.5bn Swiss francs, down 2% year on year, with net profit falling 17%. The Fed minutes signal a divided outlook on monetary policy and a more hawkish stance than expected.

Microsoft’s president warned that Chinese government subsidies pose a growing threat to U.S. tech firms in the AI race, drawing parallels to Beijing’s telecoms strategy that drove out Western rivals. China’s $8.4bn national AI fund and cheap energy vouchers give its firms a cost advantage, with lower-priced models gaining appeal in developing nations. Microsoft pledged $50bn by the end of this decade to counter China in the Global South.

Nigeria and South Africa are driving the strongest growth in stablecoin demand, with almost 80% of respondents already holding them and over 75% planning to increase holdings. Some 95% of Nigerians would prefer payment in stablecoins over the naira, though nearly 90% of activity remains crypto trading. With the global market above $310bn and 99% dollar pegged, central bankers fear deposit flight and dollarisation.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.76% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The U.S. dollar, after a four-month decline, may rally in the near term as the political and economic environment shifts in its favor. Analysts point to improved U.S. growth prospects, business confidence, and expectations for a less aggressive stance by President Trump heading into midterm elections. The dollar index has remained below 100 since November, sliding to a four-year low in January, with the most significant losses against the Australian dollar. Citi and Rabobank see potential for dollar strength against currencies like the euro and sterling, influenced by factors including new Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s steady approach. Some, however, such as analysts from J.P. Morgan and BofA, expect the dollar to weaken further, suggesting mixed views on the currency’s trajectory.

Minister of Finance Eelco Heinen advocates for real steps toward a capital markets union in the EU. Six finance ministers from the largest EU economies, including the Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain, have discussed this issue. The aim of the capital markets union is to better integrate national capital markets into a single European market, which would stimulate economic growth and create a more resilient financial system. Currently, each EU country has its own capital market rules, leading to complications and extra costs. Ursula von der Leyen has set a deadline for June; if insufficient progress is made, a group of at least nine like-minded member states should proceed. A capital markets union would provide more investment capital for companies, which is particularly important for startups and scale-ups.

Germany’s ministry of Economic affairs has confirmed that the country’s gas supply remains secure for the winter, with no need for state intervention in the market. The situation is more stable compared to last year, bolstered by strong imports of LNG and pipeline gas. A ministry spokesperson mentioned ongoing work on a new arrangement to replace existing storage rules and an additional tool to protect critical energy infrastructure. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany implemented a three-stage emergency plan to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, leading to the development of new LNG terminals and supply agreements with countries like Qatar, Oman, and Norway. Germany’s gas demand has decreased by 15% since 2022, with current storage levels above legal thresholds, supported by reduced consumption. Gas prices have stabilised around 32 euros per megawatt hour amid reliable imports.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.75% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Gold prices weakened as geopolitical tensions appeared to ease and the U.S. dollar strengthened. Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4,953.90 per ounce, while April U.S. gold futures declined 1.5% to $4,972.90. The dollar index rose 0.2%, making bullion less attractive for non-dollar buyers. Markets are also watching the Federal Reserve minutes for rate guidance, with investors still leaning toward a first cut by June. Silver fell 1.6% to $75.33.

Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed policymakers see no preset path for rates after a February hike. The RBA raised the cash rate 25 basis points to 3.85%, judging inflation risks too high to leave policy unchanged, and the decision was unanimous. Inflation is targeted at 2–3%, while core inflation is seen around 3.4% and could reach 3.7% by mid-year. Unemployment was 4.1% in December, and markets price another rise to 4.10% in May.

Oil markets were cautious ahead of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, after Iranian naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz added to supply-risk concerns. Brent slipped 0.47% to $68.05 per barrel, while U.S. WTI rose 0.99% to $63.19. Citigroup suggested that if disruptions persist and prices stay in a $65–$70 range, the OPEC+ could raise output from April. A resolution of Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push Brent toward $60–$62.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.76% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

U.S. inflation cooled more than expected in January, with consumer prices up 0.2% month on month and 2.4% year on year, helped by a 3.2% drop in gasoline and lower rent growth. Core inflation firmed to 0.3% on the month as services costs rose, while the jobless rate fell to 4.3%, underscoring a resilient economy. Markets nudged up bets on a June rate cut, but sticky services inflation points to limited near term policy easing.

Taiwan’s tech driven economy is set to accelerate sharply as artificial intelligence investment lifts growth and exports. GDP is now forecast to rise 7.71 percent this year, with full year growth revised to 8.68 percent, the highest pace in 15 years, while exports in 2026 are seen surging 22.22 percent. Inflation is expected at 1.68 percent, supporting expectations that interest rates remain unchanged despite upside risks from global demand and geopolitics.

Emerging market currencies have been less volatile than those of the G7 for nearly 200 days, which has not occurred since 2000. Capital inflows are at the highest pace for this point in the year since 2019, lifting a basket of developing currencies by 2.8% so far after a 17.5% rise last year. A softer dollar, firm commodities and carry trade demand are anchoring stability as developed market currencies swing.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.77% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

U.S. markets faced renewed pressure as technology and software stocks sold off sharply, driven by uncertainty over whether extensive AI investments will deliver meaningful returns. Major indices fell more than 1%, while sectors including semiconductors and transportation posted notable declines following weak corporate results and warnings about supply-chain constraints. Strong labor market data further reduced expectations for early interest-rate cuts, contributing to a cautious and negative market tone.

European corporate sentiment improved as many companies reported stronger-than-expected earnings, softening forecasts that had deteriorated following tariff-related tensions the previous year. Although overall quarterly profits are still expected to decline slightly, the outlook has improved significantly compared to earlier estimates, even as revenue projections weakened modestly. The broad pattern of positive earnings surprises has helped support investor confidence and contributed to recent gains across European equity markets.

Transatlantic dynamics shifted as the U.S. signalled a reduced priority for European defence, urging European countries to assume greater responsibility for their own security. Senior American officials skipped consecutive NATO meetings, raising concern about diminishing U.S. engagement while Washington emphasized a strategic focus on domestic interests and the Indo-Pacific region. Although discussions continue around possible U.S. troop reductions, European leaders pointed to rising defence spending and increasing alignment within the alliance to strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 2.79% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.