U.S. stock markets ended a volatile session largely unchanged after losing momentum late in the day. The Dow slipped 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent and the Nasdaq closed slightly higher. Oil prices swung sharply following conflicting reports about a tanker in the blocked Strait of Hormuz and ultimately fell 9 percent, pressuring energy companies.

Asian markets traded mostly higher, supported by strong technology shares and optimism around a potential historic release of oil reserves, while Middle East tensions pushed aluminium prices higher due to supply disruptions.

AI adoption in the workplace is accelerating rapidly, with the share of employers not using the technology halving in a year according to UWV. Since the launch of ChatGPT, organizations increasingly deploy AI to support or automate work, although adoption varies significantly by sector. Information and communication companies lead, while retail and automotive lag. Employers expect employees will need new skills in the next five years, including technical expertise and greater adaptability as roles evolve more frequently. Many organizations are responding with training initiatives and giving employees room to experiment with AI tools.

The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to 2.18% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

China’s trade surplus for the combined January-February period surged to a record $213.62 billion, well above expectations of $179.6 billion, reflecting strong export growth despite trade tensions with the U.S. Exports rose 21.8% year on year, far exceeding the 7.1% forecast, while imports increased 19.8%. Trade with the EU and ASEAN grew by 19.9% and 20.3% respectively, though trade with the U.S. fell 16.9%. The data underscores China’s economic resilience amid moderate inflation and ongoing tariff pressures.

Oil prices fell back to $88.69 per barrel of Brent after US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran was nearly over. Earlier, Brent crude had surged nearly 30% amid escalating tensions and fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Concerns centred on the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles around 20 million barrels per day of oil flows. Meanwhile, G7 countries discussed a possible coordinated release of strategic oil reserves to stabilize markets.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a weaker US dollar and falling oil prices after President Donald Trump suggested the Middle East war could end soon. Spot gold increased 0.5% to $5,161.54 per ounce, while US gold futures rose 1.3% to $5,171.10. The US dollar fell 0.3%. Markets now await US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data later this week.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.90% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, anticipates that inflation pressures will ease later this year. If not, the Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy. The rising oil prices due to conflict could impact inflation, growth, and employment. Hammack highlights the uncertain effects of this shock on the economy and suggests that prolonged price pressures might require more restrictive policies. Despite concerning economic data, including job losses and a slight increase in unemployment rate, the Fed might leave interest rates unchanged. Hammack stresses the importance of maintaining a strong banking oversight system to withstand future economic shocks.

The price of aluminium has risen by nearly 10% this week, marking the largest weekly increase since 2023. The price hike is driven by ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, where deliveries have been disrupted by the war that began last week. Iranian attacks on Gulf countries and retaliatory strikes by the U.S. and Israel contribute to the market uncertainty. Aluminium is currently trading at $3,446 per ton, approximately €3,000, continuing its upward trend over recent months. Supply remains tight due to limited smelting capacity in China and production restrictions in Europe because of high energy costs, yet demand from the construction and renewable energy sectors is expected to stay robust.

U.S. administration officials defended the decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil, suggesting it would ease market pressure amid rising gasoline prices due to the Iran conflict. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Ambassador Mike Waltz emphasized that allowing Indian purchases of Russian oil for 30 days could mitigate fears of oil shortages and stabilize price spikes. Despite the ongoing war, which has led to significant price increases at gas stations, Wright asserted that these spikes were based on fear rather than actual shortages, predicting a return to lower prices once the conflict concludes. Political analysts caution that prolonged high gasoline prices could negatively impact Republicans in upcoming elections.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.88% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

German government bonds (Bunds) are facing stronger competition from other safe-haven assets like gold and some currencies as investors worry about rising supply and weaker demand of bonds. Germany’s fiscal expansion plans and the European Central Bank reducing its bond holdings could push yields higher and make Bunds less attractive compared with assets such as U.S. Treasuries or UK gilts. As a result, analysts say Bunds may not perform as strongly as a traditional safe haven during future market shocks.

The AEX-index closed 0.5 percent lower at 995.52 points as oil prices surged due to the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran, increasing market uncertainty. Higher energy prices weighed on energy-intensive companies such as ArcelorMittal, while defensive stocks and Shell held up better.

New U.S. jobless claims held steady at 213,000, signalling a resilient labour market. At the same time, announced layoffs dropped sharply in February while productivity growth helped keep labour cost increases contained. Economists expect the Federal Reserve therefore will delay interest rate cuts, partly due to rising inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 2.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Gold climbed 0.8% to $5,177 per ounce on Thursday, driven by safe-haven demand as the U.S.-Iran conflict widened with a U.S. submarine sinking an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka. Bullion has now risen roughly 20% this year, notching successive record highs. Volatility is expected to persist until signs of peak escalation emerge, while Trump’s nomination of rate-cut-friendly Kevin Warsh as Fed chair provided additional tailwinds.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company’s $30 billion investment in OpenAI, part of a broader $110 billion funding round, will likely be its last ahead of the startup’s anticipated IPO later this year. Huang also indicated its $10 billion stake in Anthropic would similarly be a final investment. A previously touted $100 billion infrastructure deal between the two companies remains effectively shelved, with Nvidia noting in filings there is “no assurance” a broader agreement will be completed.

China set its GDP growth target for 2026 at 4.5% to 5%, the lowest on record since the early 1990s, as Beijing contends with persistent deflation, weak consumption and U.S. trade tensions. The budget deficit target held at 4% of GDP, while retail sales grew just 3.6% last year and fixed-asset investment fell 3.8%, its first annual decline in decades. Analysts note the modest target reflects a deliberate shift toward quality over quantity in policymaking.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.77% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The United States is threatening to end trade with Spain after the Spanish government refused to allow US forces to use two joint military bases following Spain’s condemnation of US attacks on Iran. President Trump criticized Spain as a poor ally and claimed the US could use the bases regardless of Spain’s objections, and ending trade would hit Spain hard, especially its agricultural exports, adding to earlier tensions over Spain’s refusal to increase defense spending.

Wall Street fell on Tuesday as investors worried that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could raise oil prices, inflation and disrupt global trade, briefly pushing the S&P 500 to its lowest point in more than two months. Major indices opened with losses above 2 percent before partially recovering, with broad declines across sectors, sharp drops in travel and tourism stocks, pressure on Blackstone after high withdrawal requests and rising US Treasury yields driven by inflation concerns.

Global hydrogen ambitions are stalling as projects are cancelled or delayed, costs rise and the technology proves hard to scale. Research shows that importing liquefied hydrogen from countries like Brazil is far less efficient and more expensive than expected, while local use there would be cheaper and cleaner. The sector remains in the pilot phase and confidence shifts toward battery solutions. Experts expect hydrogen to take decades to become widely used.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.77% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

U.S. Treasury investors are weighing a classic stagflation risk after the weekend escalation in the Middle East. Brent crude jumped as much as 14% and broke above $80 a barrel, while the 10-year yield slid toward 3.90% before the initial flight-to-safety cooled. Short-end moves reversed, with the 2-year yield turning higher by around 6 basis points. The dilemma is whether safe-haven demand dominates or oil-driven inflation shifts expectations for the Federal Reserve.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted as the conflict intensified, prompting insurers to cancel war risk cover. One tanker was reported ablaze, at least four others were damaged and about 150 ships were stranded. The disruption pushed energy prices higher, with Brent up as much as 13% at one point and European gas prices also jumping. Roughly 10% of the world’s container fleet is caught up in wider delays, raising the risk of port congestion in Europe and Asia.

European markets wobbled as the surge in energy prices revived inflation concerns. Since Friday, Brent rose nearly 10% and European natural gas prices jumped about 50%, sharpening worries over an import dependent region. Rate cut expectations shifted, with markets pricing only an 8% chance of another European Central Bank cut by December versus around 40% a week earlier. The euro fell 0.7% to $1.1732 and hit its weakest level versus the Swiss franc since 2015, while bank shares dropped 5%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

The conflict in the Middle East has become a significant concern for investors, with fears over a power struggle in Iran and a prolonged regional war impacting global trade and inflation. U.S.-Israel strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, leading to Iran retaliating against Gulf states and disruptions in oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Market uncertainty is high, particularly regarding oil prices. Analysts are wary of complacency given past limited impacts from regional conflicts. Gold and U.S. Treasuries are being used as hedges against risks. While there is fear of prolonged conflict affecting oil supply and prices, some analysts believe Iran’s impact on trade and oil prices will be contained. Market volatility is expected, with differing views on the future movement of stocks and commodities.

Brent crude oil prices surged by 10% to approximately $80 a barrel due to the conflict in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which have disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts are predicting that prices could reach $100 a barrel if disruptions continue. The closure of the Strait, through which over 20% of the world’s oil is transported, is a crucial factor driving prices up. As a response, OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil output by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April. However, even with alternative routes, the closure could still remove 8 to 10 million barrels per day from the supply chain. The situation has prompted Asian countries and companies to seek alternative oil sources, such as Russian oil for India. Analysts have mixed forecasts, with some seeing prices above $90 in the near term.

The AEX index in Amsterdam reached a new record in February despite concerns over the impact of the AI boom and escalating trade tensions due to actions by U.S. President Trump. The index increased by 2.5% in February, supported by companies like Wolters Kluwer, RELX, and Shell. Trump announced universal tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling and threatened higher tariffs if the situation is abused. Concerns over AI were prominent, exacerbated by a bleak report from Citrini Research and mixed results from Nvidia, despite rising valuations. AI startup Anthropic provided some relief in sentiment with new integrations.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.67% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

U.S. jobless claims edged up 4,000 to 212,000 last week while the unemployment rate held near 4.3 percent, signalling a stable labour market. Continuing claims fell 31,000 to 1.833 million, yet low hiring and long-term unemployment remain concerns. Market reactions included lower Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.

South Korea’s central bank kept its benchmark rate at 2.50% and signalled a pause for the next six months as GDP growth was raised to 2.0% on strong chip exports. The won strengthened to 1,422.9 per dollar and three-year treasury yields fell 8.6 basis points to 3.035%, reflecting calmer bond markets. Board projections show 16 of 21 members expect rates to stay unchanged, with limited risk of near-term moves.

Global smartphone shipments are set to fall 12.9% to 1.12 billion units in 2026, hitting a decade low as soaring memory chip prices lift costs. The average selling price is expected to jump 14% to $523, pressuring low-end manufacturers while premium players gain share. The sub-$100 segment, accounting for 171 million devices, may become permanently uneconomical, with only a modest 2% recovery forecast for 2027.The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.14% compared to previous business day.

The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.71% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Oil prices edged up 0.3% on Thursday as markets priced in a geopolitical risk premium of up to $10 a barrel amid unresolved U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. A constructive outcome could unwind that premium, while a breakdown risks further supply disruption from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer. Gains were capped by a sharp 16 million barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories, the largest build in three years, far exceeding forecasts.

The EBRD raised its growth forecasts for 40 developing economies to 3.6% this year and 3.7% in 2027, after the region expanded 3.4% last year, ahead of expectations. U.S. tariffs rerouted rather than reduced trade, with countries such as Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic gaining from AI-related export shifts as they replaced Chinese suppliers. The bank cautioned that ongoing trade turmoil and rising defence spending could yet weigh on private investment and longer-term growth.

Indian equities edged higher on Thursday, with the Nifty 50 rising 0.31% and the Sensex gaining 0.28%, lifted by a 1.6% rebound in IT stocks following strong Nvidia earnings. The sector had shed roughly 20% in February, and broader risk appetite remains cautious amid a lack of fresh domestic catalysts. Analysts expect the market to stay range-bound near term as it digests earlier losses.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.72% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.