The 6M Euribor increased with 6 basis points to 2.47% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 3.10% compared to previous business day.
The US has drafted a 15-point plan to end its conflict with Iran, delivered via Pakistan, as the economic toll of the nearly month-long war mounts. Oil prices fell sharply in response, with Brent dropping as much as 7% to around $97 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near $88. Despite diplomatic overtures, Iran has signalled little willingness to negotiate, while commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted.
Fed Governor Michael Barr stated Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may need to hold rates steady for a “considerable time” before further cuts are justified. With the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index running roughly one percentage point above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, Barr emphasized the need for sustained disinflation in goods and services before easing policy further. The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% last week.
Gold prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with spot gold up 2.56% to $4,588 per ounce and April futures up over 4% to $4,597.7 per ounce. Goldman Sachs attributed the recent gold pullback to higher rate expectations and market volatility, while maintaining a year-end price expectation of $5,400 per ounce.
The 6M Euribor increased with 6 basis points to 2.47% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 3.10% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Asian markets moved higher on Tuesday after Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a five day pause in escalating tensions with Iran. This followed steep losses on Monday driven by rising geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street closed higher on Monday, while oil prices and bond yields reacted strongly to the shifting political signals.
Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday after Monday’s sharp drop, which had been driven by Trump’s remarks hinting at a possible end to the conflict with Iran. Brent crude rose 2.8% to USD 102.79 per barrel, following a Wall Street Journal report that Gulf allies such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia may join strikes against Iran. Iran’s denial of negotiations with the U.S., combined with renewed drone and missile attacks, has revived concerns about further escalation in the Middle East.
Japan’s economic growth softened in March after two strong months. Preliminary S&P Global PMI data show declines in both services (from 53.8 to 52.8) and manufacturing (from 53.0 to 51.4), pushing the composite index down to 52.5. According to S&P, growth momentum has eased, though all readings above 50 continue to signal expansion.
The 6M Euribor increased with 9 basis points to 2.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.04% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
India’s macroeconomic stability is under strain as the central bank has spent over $20 billion defending the rupee, which has fallen 2.6% during the conflict, while foreign reserves dropped to $555 billion and the RBI’s forward book surpassed $100 billion in short positions. With India importing 90% of its crude and half its gas, surging energy prices threaten to widen the current account deficit to 2.5% of GDP, weaken the rupee toward 95 per dollar, and push bond yields up toward 7%, raising risks of broader financial‑market stress. Capital outflows exceeding $10 billion and potential declines in $50 billion of Gulf remittances further intensify pressure, making the rupee the de facto shock absorber as the conflict persists.
Soaring oil prices, with Brent touching $108.65 and intraday swings as high as 10%, are driving investors out of equities and traditional safe havens and into money‑market funds, which now hold roughly $8 trillion in assets. Concerns over inflation, stagflation risk, and eroding returns on bonds and gold have made ultra‑short‑term Treasury funds attractive as they offer yields above 3% to 4%, reinforcing a broad “wait‑and‑see” stance across markets. This rush to cash underscores growing fear that sustained energy‑driven price shocks could weigh heavily on consumer spending, earnings, and overall economic growth.
UK borrowing costs have spiked sharply, with 10‑year gilt yields hitting 5%, their highest level since 2008, as soaring oil and gas prices from the Middle East conflict raise the risk of a renewed inflation shock. Markets now expect multiple rate hikes instead of cuts, pushing two‑year gilt yields to 4.57% and driving mortgage rates and household energy bills higher, which threatens consumer spending and increases recession risk. The jump in yields also strains public finances, with the UK set to issue £252 billion in gilts this year while already paying more than £100 billion annually in interest, limiting fiscal space and potentially forcing further tax increases.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.32% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 3.07% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Commission will give EU member states more flexibility to temporarily, and in a targeted way, lower high energy prices for households and businesses, while keeping the Emissions Trading System (ETS) intact. Brussels plans to allow more flexible subsidies for energy costs, reduce network charges for energy intensive industries and encourage lower electricity taxes relative to fossil fuels. A €30 bn support package is proposed to stimulate clean technology and decarbonisation investments, with special access for less wealthy member states, while the summit was also marked by sharp criticism of Hungary for blocking an agreed EU loan to Ukraine.
Wall Street closed lower after a volatile trading session, as rising oil and gas prices and persistent inflation concerns weighed on investor sentiment, echoing the negative mood in Europe. Markets pared earlier losses late in the day after Israel said it would help the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil prices after Brent crude briefly surged before falling back. Ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East kept pressure on markets, while the Federal Reserve reiterated it will not cut interest rates until inflation eases.
The United States has eased sanctions on Belarus’s financial sector and potassium producers, a move expected to support the Belarusian economy and help curb global fertilizer price increases. In return, the Belarusian government released 250 political prisoners, most domestically and a group transferred to Lithuania. The US described the agreement as a humanitarian milestone, stressing that securing the prisoners’ freedom was the primary objective.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.31% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.98% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European leaders have unanimously rejected military involvement in U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran, with Germany and France citing lack of consultation and unclear war aims. Public opposition is strong across the continent, with 68% of Spaniards, 58% of Germans and 49% of Britons against the conflict. France is separately assembling a coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows, once conditions stabilize.
Europe’s four major central banks meet Thursday, with the ECB, Bank of England, Riksbank and Swiss National Bank all expected to hold rates as the Iran war scrambles their forecasts. Rate cuts once priced in for spring have been abandoned, with PIMCO projecting eurozone inflation peaking near 3% this year as energy costs surge. The Bank of England’s rate at 3.75% looks set to remain unchanged, with analysts warning a rise later in 2026 cannot be ruled out.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady but raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.7%, as the Iran war and oil price surge cloud the outlook for cuts. Markets now price just one reduction this year at best, with CME’s Fedwatch tool assigning a 42.5% probability of no cut at all. Powell added he would remain as chair beyond his May term if his successor Kevin Warsh is not confirmed in time by the Senate.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.31% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.97% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Parliament’s trade committee will vote on Thursday on a long-delayed part of the EU–US trade deal. The vote, postponed earlier due to new U.S. import tariffs and political tensions, concerns removing EU import duties on selected American industrial goods and lobster. A final vote in the full Parliament is expected at the end of March.
Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision. Airline stocks, including Delta and American Airlines, rallied after raising their revenue outlooks, even as high oil prices and Middle East tensions continued to weigh on sentiment. Markets expect the Fed to keep rates steady. Energy, tech, and bank shares showed modest gains. Eight of the eleven S&P sectors finished in positive territory.
Investors are increasingly offloading software loans from CLO portfolios as fears grow that AI could severely disrupt the sector. CLO managers, wary of possible rating downgrades and future defaults, are actively reducing their software exposure—the largest single sector within U.S. CLO collateral. Spreads have widened, some loans are trading at discounts, and buyer interest remains limited as investors struggle to assess AI related risk. With overall CLO loan supply expected to fall and confidence weakening in private credit, the market is showing clear signs of stress.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.31% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.93% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The United States is allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz to keep global oil markets supplied, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Oil prices have surged roughly 40% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, with Brent crude hovering around $102 per barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns global supply could drop by 8 million barrels per day this month. Bessent expects prices to fall well below $80 per barrel once the conflict ends.
The Australian dollar slipped 0.25% to $0.7053 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, though a narrow five-to-four vote reduced expectations for further tightening. Surging oil prices driven by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran are fuelling global inflation concerns, lifting the U.S. dollar index over 2% this month. The Japanese yen weakened to 159.31 per dollar as markets remain cautious amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Amsterdam-based cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) company Nebius has secured a major deal with Meta, valued at up to $27 billion over five years, under which Nebius will supply Meta with data centre capacity to support AI development. This follows an earlier $3 billion agreement with Meta and a deal worth over $19 billion with Microsoft. Last week, Nvidia invested $2 billion in Nebius to further expand its data centre capacity. Nebius reported revenue of $530 million last year, a fivefold increase year-on-year.
The 6M Euribor increased with 6 basis points to 2.29% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.96% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil markets remain severely strained as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating conflict drive Brent and WTI up over 40% this month, despite the IEA releasing 400 million barrels from reserves. Global supply is expected to fall by 8 million bpd while Middle Eastern producers cut at least 10 million bpd, heightening volatility and reshaping global energy flows.
Ultra‑short‑term crypto betting has surged to about $70 million in daily volume in the US, with 5‑ to 15‑minute contracts now accounting for more than half of trading on major prediction platforms. This rapid growth has amplified speculative behavior and created microstructure inefficiencies that high‑frequency trading firms increasingly exploit, even as crypto prices have fallen over 40% from last year’s peak.
Europe’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market faces structural pressure as rising Chinese export volumes threaten to trigger a price imbalance similar to past oversupply shocks in other industrial sectors. With EU mandates requiring SAF blends to increase from 2% in 2025 to 70% by 2050, weak demand, high production costs, and import competition risk undermining long‑term market stability.
The 6M Euribor increased with 6 basis points to 2.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 3.01% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Private credit markets, particularly in the US, face mounting systemic pressure as default rates, historically averaging 2.6%, are projected to potentially double in the coming years amid AI‑driven economic shifts. Investors have already pulled capital from private credit funds, signalling broader concerns about credit quality and the resilience of non‑bank lending structures. With upside capped and downside fully borne by lenders, rising defaults and thinner spreads threaten to reshape the risk dynamics of the private debt ecosystem across advanced economies.
Oil prices surged nearly 9-10%, with Brent reaching $100.46 and WTI $95.70, as escalating conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest supply disruption in modern global markets. With 400 million barrels planned for release from strategic reserves offering only limited relief, equivalent to roughly 25 days of lost flows, the global energy system remains severely unbalanced. Middle Eastern output has dropped by at least 10 million barrels per day, refinery shutdowns exceed 2.35 million b/d, and heightened regional tensions risk further constraints on shipping routes. As countries like China impose export bans to protect domestic supply and others reroute flows, the shock is reshaping global energy trade and increasing the likelihood of prolonged price volatility.
Russia is capturing an estimated $150 million per day in extra budget revenue as Middle Eastern conflict disrupts supply routes, pushing global oil prices sharply higher. The country has already earned $1.3-$1.9 billion in additional export‑related taxes, with potential to reach $3.3-$5 billion by month‑end if crude stays near $70-$80 per barrel. This surge temporarily offsets earlier fiscal strain, where energy revenues had fallen nearly 50% year‑on‑year, and strengthens Moscow’s short‑term macro position while reshaping global energy trade flows, especially toward India and China.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 13 basis points to 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.97% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Iran conflict has driven European energy prices sharply higher, with Brent crude hitting nearly $120 a barrel earlier this week before retreating, and Dutch TTF gas hitting a three-year high of 63.77 euros per MWh. Analysts say a repeat of the 2022 inflation shock remains unlikely, given greater energy supply diversification and a less overheated macro backdrop. A short disruption could push eurozone inflation from 1.9% to 2.5%, enough to delay but not derail ECB and BoE rate cuts.
The U.S. budget deficit reached $1 trillion through February, though it ran 12% below the level that was seen a year ago, as revenues outpaced spending. Tariff collections surged 294% to $151 billion, with customs duties now exceeding corporate tax receipts for the first time. Interest payments on the $39 trillion national debt totalled $79 billion in February alone, remaining one of the largest expenditure categories.
Bitcoin slipped around 2% to roughly $69,600 as Brent crude surged more than 10%, driven by fresh tanker attacks in Iraqi waters and mounting Iran war concerns. The risk-off move has kept sentiment cautious, though analysts note negative funding rates on Bitcoin futures, which have occurred only ten times since 2018, have historically preceded strong returns.
The 6M Euribor increased with 12 basis points to 2.30% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 2.95% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
