Wall Street surged to near one-month highs after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, easing concerns over energy supply disruptions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also posted strong gains. Falling oil prices weighed heavily on energy stocks but boosted airlines, cruise operators and broader risk appetite. Investors now await inflation data and Federal Reserve signals.
The Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked despite a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Only a handful of vessels exited the Gulf, while more than 800 ships remained stuck amid uncertainty over safe passage rules, coordination requirements and Iranian tolls. Shipowners, insurers and trade groups warned that normal flows would not resume quickly, even as oil prices fell sharply on easing supply fears.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting show a growing number of policymakers are open to possible interest rate hikes later this year, driven by concerns that higher oil and gas prices could keep inflation elevated. Officials highlighted a difficult trade-off between curbing inflation and supporting growth, as rising energy costs could also weaken consumer spending and employment.
The 6M Euribor increased with 5 basis points to 2.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 15 basis points to 2.99% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Gold surged 2.3% to $4,812 per ounce, touching a near three-week high, after Trump agreed to a two-week pause in attacks on Iran following a 10-point proposal from Tehran via Pakistani mediators. Iran confirmed negotiations would begin on April 10 in Islamabad, though cautioned the talks do not signal an end to the war. Gold remains down more than 8% since the conflict began on February 28, with $4,930 seen as the next key price level to watch before a potential move towards $5,000.
Stock trading intensity has hit a record high, with the S&P 500 ETF’s daily turnover breaching the $60 billion “freak out” threshold 29 times this year, surpassing all of 2025’s 28 instances. Hedge funds are selling global stocks at the fastest pace in more than a decade while retail buying is flagging, as investors grow wary of being caught out by sudden shifts in the Iran conflict. The two-week ceasefire offers some relief, but analysts warn uncertainty remains high as both sides’ commitments are contingent on the other’s behaviour.
Google’s Alphabet is ramping up direct investments in AI startups, with CEO Sundar Pichai citing the AI boom as opening new opportunities to deploy capital beyond its traditional venture arms. The strategy has already proven lucrative, with its $900 million SpaceX investment in 2015 now worth around $100 billion ahead of a likely IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Alphabet has also invested over $3 billion in Anthropic, which has since soared to a $380 billion valuation, giving Google a reported 14% stake in one of its key AI rivals.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.46% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 3.14% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European stocks are set to open marginally higher on Tuesday, with the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 (FTSE 100), Cac 40, and Dax each pointing to gains of 0.1% to 0.2%, as markets returned from the Easter break. Investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, due Tuesday evening. Asia-Pacific markets turned volatile amid ongoing uncertainty. Purchasing Managers’ Index data for the U.K. and Eurozone are due later in the day.
In his annual shareholder letter, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted significant headwinds including geopolitical conflicts, persistent inflation, and private market upheaval. Dimon expressed concern over the proposed Basel 3 endgame and global systemically important bank surcharges, warning they could require JPMorgan to hold up to 50% more capital than non-GSIB peers. On artificial intelligence, Dimon stated the investment is not a speculative bubble and reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to broad AI deployment.
The U.S. labour market showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in March, with nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000, well above the consensus estimate of 59,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, though largely due to a shrinking labour force. Healthcare led job gains with 76,000 additions. Wage growth remained modest at 3.5% year-on-year. Markets now price a 77.5% probability the Federal Reserve holds rates steady through year-end.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.46% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 3.05% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Yesterday, financial markets reacted nervously after US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran is unlikely to end soon, raising concerns about prolonged military action and potential escalation. Stock markets initially fell while oil prices rose, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk, although sentiment improved later in the day after Iran’s foreign ministry signalled cooperation with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warned that markets remain highly sensitive to conflict‑related headlines and that a sustained recovery will depend on clear signs of de‑escalation, resulting in only modest movements in major US indices by the close.
French President Emmanuel Macron has rejected calls to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through military force, calling such an operation unrealistic, too dangerous, and excessively time‑consuming. Speaking during a visit to South Korea, he said secure passage through the strait can only be restored through diplomatic engagement with Iran following a ceasefire, rather than through troop deployments proposed by US President Donald Trump. Macron also criticized military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, arguing they offer no lasting solution without a broader diplomatic and technical framework, and questioned earlier claims that Iran’s nuclear capabilities had already been fully destroyed.
A large‑scale cyberattack has resulted in the theft of more than $300 million in digital assets from users of the crypto derivatives platform Drift, making it one of the biggest crypto hacks to date, with recovery still uncertain and the breach possibly ongoing. The attack appears highly sophisticated, likely involving the manipulation of employees and forged digital signatures, allowing hackers to drain nearly all assets from a supposedly secure wallet. The incident triggered sharp declines in Drift’s own token and the Solana network, underscoring persistent vulnerabilities in decentralized finance, including extreme leverage, concentrated control by developers, and frequent security flaws in still‑developing crypto networks.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.49% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.05% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Trump’s televised address wrong-footed markets expecting a ceasefire announcement, as he vowed to strike Iran “enormously hard” over the next two to three weeks. Oil surged 5.1% to $106.28 per barrel while S&P 500 futures pointed to a 1% decline, with major Asian indices falling between 1% and 3%. US pump prices have risen to $4.06 per gallon from $2.98 a month ago, eroding public support for the war to just 28% of Americans.
The S&P 500 has fallen into a recurring weekly pattern since the Iran war began, gaining early in the week before cratering on Thursdays and Fridays, with cumulative Thursday and Friday losses totalling 9%. Investors are trimming positions ahead of weekends to avoid being caught off-guard by Trump’s tendency to launch major escalations when markets are closed. This week followed the same script, with early gains of over 3% on ceasefire optimism evaporating after Trump’s Wednesday address pledging further strikes.
Germany and Italy are pushing for sweeping powers to block foreign stablecoins from the EU unless their home countries meet equivalent regulatory standards, a move that could effectively shut out major dollar-pegged operators. The proposal would hand the European Banking Authority a hard kill switch to ban any stablecoin whose reserve transfer mechanism fails or whose issuer breaches its rules. The proposal does not yet represent an official EU position, but as an informal document backed by the eurozone’s two largest economies, it carries significant weight in the ongoing MISP legislative negotiations.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 5 basis points to 2.48% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.04% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. banks are raising borrowing costs for private credit funds, particularly for credit facilities extended to business development companies (BDCs). Spreads on back leverage loans have climbed to as much as 2 percentage points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), up from around 1.75 to 1.80 percentage points in November 2024. Concerns over portfolio valuations, software sector exposure, and rising redemption requests are driving the tightening. BDCs held approximately $513 billion in assets as of late 2025, while U.S. banks had lent nearly $300 billion to private credit providers as of June 2025.
Chinese exporters are redirecting goods to the UK as U.S. tariffs limit access to American markets. Among the top 25 Chinese export categories to the UK, 14 saw prices fall in early 2026 compared to a year earlier. Passenger car prices dropped 4.6%, while volumes more than doubled. The Bank of England (BOE) estimates the drag on UK inflation at around 0.2 percentage points in 2026 and 2027, though some rate-setters consider that estimate conservative. However, concerns remain over the impact on domestic industry competitiveness.
Greece will rejoin MSCI’s developed markets (DM) index in May 2027, ending its status as the only eurozone market not classified as developed. The reclassification follows Greece’s recovery from a debt crisis that began in 2009, which required three international bailouts totalling over 240 billion euros. The country regained investment-grade status in late 2023. Not all Greek companies currently in the emerging markets (EM) index will move to the DM index, and both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs expect a net passive outflow as a result of the transition.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.53% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.07% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Inflation in Germany rose to 2.7 percent in March year-on-year, the highest level since 2024, driven mainly by higher fuel and gas prices following the conflict in the Middle East. Iran’s near closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy facilities disrupted oil and gas supplies. Consumer prices increased 1.1 percent in March versus February. Financial markets anticipate potential interest rate increases as the European Central Bank expects higher inflation and weaker economic growth.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank can wait to assess how the conflict in Iran affects the United States economy and inflation. He noted that inflation expectations beyond the short term remain anchored. With rising gasoline prices and lingering inflation above target, the Federal Reserve faces tension between supporting the labour market and containing price growth. Powell emphasized uncertainty around the energy shock and reiterated that current policy is well positioned as the situation develops.
Nasdaq will introduce new rules to accelerate the inclusion of newly listed large capitalization companies in the Nasdaq 100 index. The changes aim to support the pipeline of initial public offerings as major technology firms prepare to list. A fast entry mechanism will assess newcomers based on their market capitalization after seven trading days. Additional adjustments include a revised market capitalization method, removal of the 10 percent float requirement, and quarterly updates on outstanding shares.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.50% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 3.10% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Global stocks and bonds have fallen sharply, with the MSCI All Country World index down about 9% and global bond indices losing over 3% in March as the Iran conflict drives energy prices higher and closes the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil costs, now more than 50% above pre‑war levels, have intensified fears of global stagflation, pushing the US 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.48% and triggering widespread liquidations across equities, bonds, and even gold. Investors have increasingly moved into cash as the traditional 60‑40 portfolio suffers its worst month since 2022, highlighting the absence of safe havens during this energy‑driven macro shock.
Indian banks are seeking a three‑month extension to comply with new central bank limits that cap net open onshore FX positions at $100 million, arguing that rapid implementation could force disorderly unwinding of trades. The rupee has fallen more than 5% year‑to‑date, hitting a record low of 94.84 per dollar, as rising oil prices and heavy foreign outflows put acute pressure on India’s external accounts. A delayed compliance timeline would allow banks to let positions mature naturally rather than liquidating them abruptly, reducing the risk of market stress during a period of heightened macro volatility.
A review of market activity shows several unusually well‑timed trades that preceded major US policy announcements, raising concerns among legal experts that sensitive government information may have leaked into the market. Large and timely positions across options, oil futures, and prediction markets generated profits reaching into the millions, including a $500 million oil trade executed minutes before a key Iran‑related announcement. Regulators face challenges because enforcement across commodities, derivatives, and prediction markets is inconsistent, and the scale and timing of these trades suggest the possibility of advance knowledge of high‑impact geopolitical actions.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.50% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.16% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Fitch outlines a downside scenario in which a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz keep energy prices high and disrupt supply chains, pushing inflation up and weakening confidence, spending and investment in advanced economies. Growth would slow sharply, with the United States slipping below 1 percent, Europe stagnating and several Asian economies, particularly South Korea, taking the biggest hit due to their dependence on Middle Eastern energy. Labour markets risk rising unemployment, governments have limited fiscal room for support, and sectors such as chemicals in Europe and Asia, Gulf-region banks and Dubai real estate face heightened vulnerabilities.
More than thirty countries are considering ways to support safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a significant increase from the small initial group willing to send naval vessels, although many governments only wish to act after a ceasefire. Mark Rutte faces criticism from diplomats who believe he aligns too closely with Washington as Donald Trump pressures European NATO members to deploy ships despite security concerns and discomfort with the American and Israeli intervention that has driven up oil prices. Rutte argues Europe needed time to regroup and emphasises that higher defence spending across Europe and Canada is partly due to US pressure, while NATO continues to view Russia and its partnerships with authoritarian states as its primary strategic threat.
The United States has lifted sanctions on several Belarusian entities added to its blacklist after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, easing restrictions on potash-related products and permitting transactions with a state-owned bank. The move represents a partial reduction in pressure on a country supporting Russia’s war effort, although many Western measures remain in place. A major global potash producer is among the affected entities, while the European Union continues to enforce its own embargo on potash imports from Belarus.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 7 basis points to 2.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 11 basis points to 3.13% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Wall Street is raising recession alarm bells, with EY-Parthenon placing the probability at 40% and Goldman Sachs lifting its estimate to 30%, as oil prices remain roughly 25% above pre-war levels. If crude stays above $100 per barrel, US inflation could approach 5% while GDP growth takes a hit of more than 1 percentage point. Goldman’s chief economist now expects below-trend growth and a rising unemployment rate, pushing ECB rate hikes into April and June while delaying Bank of England cuts to 2027.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is sending fertilizer prices sharply higher, with urea up roughly 50% and ammonia 20% since the war began. Around a third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the waterway, leaving 30% of exportable supply effectively stranded. Analysts warn crop yields will fall later this year, with emerging markets and food-import dependent nations most exposed to the coming price shock.
Gold steadied near USD 4,500 an ounce as conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran kept traders cautious, with the metal down nearly 15% since the war began. Rising inflation fears have led markets to bet on rates staying higher for longer, a persistent headwind for non-yielding bullion. Around 85 tons of gold ETF holdings have been redeemed since the conflict started, with a further 83 tons still lossmaking and vulnerable to liquidation, equivalent to roughly USD 12 billion.
The 6M Euribor increased with 12 basis points to 2.59% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 3.02% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
