Taxes on wages across OECD countries have reached their highest level in almost a decade, as governments increasingly rely on labour income to shore up strained public finances. In 2025, a typical single worker faced an average tax wedge of 35.1 percent, the highest since 2016. The burden rose in 24 countries, with the UK recording the largest increase. Economists warn that higher labour taxes risk undermining incentives to work and hire.
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its one-week repo rate unchanged at 37 percent in April and left the interest rate corridor at 35.5 to 40 percent. The decision reflects stronger reserves, with gross reserves rising to about USD 175bn by 20 April from USD 161.6bn in early April, and net reserves excluding swaps increasing to USD 38.6bn. The bank cited slowing growth and elevated inflation risks, with 2026 and 2027 inflation expectations at 27.5 and 20.1 percent, supporting a cautious stance.
The European Union is reconsidering its opposition to new oil and gas drilling in the Arctic as it seeks to strengthen energy security following recent geopolitical crises. Brussels has struggled to gain international backing for a drilling ban proposed in 2021 and is now reviewing alternatives. Any policy shift would benefit Norway, a major Arctic producer, but would face strong resistance from environmental groups citing climate and biodiversity commitments.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 4 basis points to 2.38% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.05% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% next week and likely throughout 2026, despite rising inflation risks. Economists see the recent energy price shock as temporary and note that financial conditions have already tightened via bond markets. Inflation is forecast to rise before easing in 2027, while growth expectations have been downgraded. A high risk of stagflation reinforces a wait-and-see policy stance.
Major oil traders warn that demand destruction from the Iran war is likely to intensify, suggesting the economic fallout is not yet fully visible. Demand decline could rise to around 5 million barrels per day, about 5% of global supply, if disruptions persist. Supply from the Persian Gulf has already fallen sharply, hitting petrochemicals, aviation and agriculture, especially in Asia. A prolonged closure of key shipping routes could push the global economy into recession.
Private credit funds are under growing pressure as financing costs rise and lenders tighten terms. Investors now demand higher risk premiums, up 0.34 percentage points this year and 0.83 percentage points since early 2025, reflecting concerns over credit quality. Bond issuance by business development companies (funds that invest in private credit) fell to $6.8bn in the first quarter of 2026, down 22% year on year. Funds are increasingly turning to structured credit, such as collateralized loan obligations, to secure cheaper funding.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.04% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. importers can claim more than $160 billion in tariff refunds following a February Supreme Court ruling that invalidated the Trump administration’s emergency tariff authority. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) launched its claims-filing portal, the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE), on Monday. However, lawyers and importers remain cautious, citing bureaucratic hurdles and potential legal challenges. According to Citi, Walmart alone is due $10.2 billion, with Target at $2.2 billion and Nike at $1 billion.
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, addressed the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, emphasizing Fed independence while cautioning against overreach into areas like climate change and social inequality. Warsh acknowledged that elected officials may comment on interest rates without threatening monetary policy independence. His confirmation faces a potential delay, as Senator Thom Tillis has vowed to block it pending an investigation into the Fed’s multibillion-dollar headquarters renovation.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that the Middle East crisis could trigger persistent inflation in India if supply disruptions continue. Speaking at Princeton University, he highlighted that the region accounts for roughly one-sixth of India’s exports, one-fifth of imports, and half of crude oil shipments. The RBI remains in “wait and watch” mode, becoming more data dependent, while focusing on anchoring inflation expectations rather than raising rates aggressively.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 3.01% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical signals, with investors placing a $760 million bet on falling crude prices minutes before confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open, triggering an intraday price drop of up to 11%. Similar well‑timed trades of $500 million to $950 million ahead of ceasefire or military announcements have raised concerns about information asymmetries in derivatives markets. US regulators are now investigating whether war‑related policy decisions are creating unfair advantages in one of the world’s most systemically important commodity markets.
Hedge funds are on track for their strongest monthly performance in more than a decade, with equity long‑short strategies up 7.7% in April and 6.7% year‑to‑date after navigating March’s Iran‑related market turmoil. During the first quarter, hedge funds lost only 35% of what a traditional 60‑40 portfolio lost, highlighting their relative resilience in volatile conditions. Rising dispersion, now at a three‑year high, suggests that macro uncertainty is increasingly separating winners from losers across global markets.
Parts of the US crypto market are under pressure as governance disputes and leveraged token‑backed borrowing undermine investor confidence, contributing to a 16% price decline in a politically linked digital asset over the past month. Public data show roughly $75 million in loans backed by about $440 million in tokens, raising concerns about collateral risk and potential forced selling in stressed scenarios. The episode highlights broader structural vulnerabilities in crypto finance, including concentration risk, opaque governance, and the growing intersection between digital assets and US political influence.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.45% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 2.99% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European government bond yields have risen sharply since the Iran conflict, increasing borrowing costs and straining public finances. Britain sold 10-year bonds at 4.92%, the highest since 2008, while France issued 10-year debt at 3.73%, its highest since 2011. Rising energy prices are keeping yields elevated, lifting debt servicing costs. Italy is expected to roll over debt worth 17% of GDP in 2026, heightening fiscal risks.
New York Federal Reserve warned that the Iran conflict poses substantial risks to the US economy by raising inflation and weakening growth. Energy supply disruptions are already lifting fuel prices and feeding through to airfares, food and other goods. As a result, the inflation outlook for this year has risen to 2.75–3% but is expected to return to 2% in 2027.
Governments are expanding emergency support to offset surging energy costs, raising concerns over public debt sustainability. Recent measures include Germany’s two‑month fuel tax cut costing $1.9 billion, Canada’s $1.7 billion fuel tax relief, Italy’s $590 million extension, Greece’s $354 million support package and Australia’s $285 million expansion. The IMF warns that with global public debt at 94% of GDP, rising toward 100% by 2029, prolonged aid risks triggering broader fiscal stress.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.47% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 3.07% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The International Monetary Fund said at least a dozen countries are likely to seek new loan programs to cope with the Middle East war’s energy shock and supply-chain disruptions, with several requests expected from sub-Saharan Africa. The IMF Managing Director estimated potential financing needs of $20 billion to $50 billion, including possible augmentations of existing programs. She warned Hormuz-related disruptions could deepen even if fighting ends, urged fuel conservation, and cautioned against broad energy subsidies.
Countries affected by the Iran war should prepare for months of economic disruption even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, according to World Bank President. He warned that supply chains and energy flows would take time to normalize. The World Bank is preparing a phased support “war chest,” offering up to $25 billion immediately, potentially rising to $60 billion within months and $80 to $100 billion over 15 months, with a focus on containing inflation first.
Mortgage rates in the US have risen in early 2026, with the average 30-year fixed rate climbing from 5.75% in early March to about 6.12% by mid-April. Most experts expect rates to end 2026 around the low-6% range, though forecasts remain highly uncertain. Geopolitical tensions, oil prices and inflation expectations are key drivers of volatility, leaving mortgage markets sensitive to headlines rather than economic data.
The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to 2.48% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.08% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US consumer spending and savings remain resilient despite the Iran war, with JPMorgan deposits up 2% year on year and Citibank card spending rising 5%, according to quarterly results from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Fuel costs have jumped 25% to 30% since the Strait of Hormuz blockade, though bank CEOs note spending behaviour has yet to adjust. Loan writedowns remain stable, but executives warn a prolonged conflict hitting the labour market could change that.
The dollar fell to six-week lows, surrendering nearly all gains made since the Iran war began, as renewed hopes of US-Iran talks lifted risk appetite across asset classes. The euro rose to $1.1793 and the dollar index slipped to 98.109, while Brent crude fell to $94.52 after tumbling 4.6% in the previous session. Markets appear to be pricing the conflict as a temporary energy shock, with analysts citing growing expectations of a negotiated settlement ahead of US midterm elections.
Asian shares climbed to six-week highs, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index gaining 1.5% and Japan’s Nikkei rising 1.2% to 58,561, as hopes for resumed US-Iran talks pushed Brent crude below $100. The Nasdaq extended its winning streak to ten consecutive sessions overnight, while US producer inflation rose less than expected in March, easing war-driven price fears. The IMF warned the global economy would teeter on the brink of recession if the conflict worsens.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 3.05% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Asia-Pacific markets opened mostly higher on Tuesday, buoyed by hopes of a diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran. The US began blocking ships in the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Iran into reopening the key oil route, after peace talks collapsed. West Texas Intermediate fell 2.02% to $97.08 per barrel and Brent crude declined 1.33% to $98.04. South Korea’s Kospi led regional gains, rising 3.41%, while India’s Nifty 50 was the main laggard, falling 0.86%.
Hungary’s main stock index, the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX), surged over 3% to a record high of 136,000 points after Péter Magyar’s Tisza party won a supermajority in parliamentary elections, ending 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s rule. Markets welcomed prospects of democratic reforms, the potential release of €17 billion in frozen European Union funds, and the removal of sector-specific windfall taxes. Morgan Stanley estimates the shift could lift Hungary’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 1 to 1.5% in coming years.
China’s export growth slowed to a six-month low in March, rising just 2.5% year on year, well below analyst forecasts of 8.6%, as the Middle East conflict dampened global demand. Imports surged 27.8%, the strongest growth since November 2021. The trade surplus narrowed to $264.3 billion year to date, down 3% compared to the same period last year. Exports to the United States fell 26.5%, while rising energy and commodity costs are beginning to pressure manufacturers’ margins.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.45% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 3.11% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Global policymakers are meeting as the Middle East war delivers a major shock to the world economy, prompting the IMF and World Bank to downgrade growth and raise inflation forecasts. Growth in emerging and developing economies is now projected at 3.65% in 2026, down from 4%, and could fall to 2.6% if the conflict persists, while inflation may rise from 3% to as high as 6.7%. The IMF estimates $20–50bn in near‑term emergency financing needs, warning that 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity amid record public debt levels.
War‑driven volatility has boosted trading activity across the US financial system, with first‑quarter trading revenues expected to exceed $40bn, the highest level in at least 12 years and about 13% higher than a year earlier. Sharp swings in oil prices, equities, and interest rates have driven trading growth of 13–15% in equities and 8–13% in fixed income, currencies, and commodities. Overall bank profits are forecast to rise about 7%, although prolonged conflict risks dampening dealmaking and equity issuance.
UK retail investment flows deteriorated sharply as geopolitical uncertainty coincided with peak tax‑year inflows, leading to net withdrawals of £1.4bn from equity funds and £535m from bond funds in March. This marked the worst March for equity fund flows since 2015 and the tenth consecutive month of net selling, reflecting caution amid rising yields and market volatility. While some investors placed cash into savings accounts without committing to markets, overall risk appetite remained subdued despite selective interest in global and US‑focused assets.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 10 basis points to 2.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 3.09% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Expectations for US Federal Reserve policy have become increasingly fragmented since the fragile truce between the US and Iran, with markets moving from pricing in rate hikes to again considering a possible rate cut later this year, although a pause remains the most likely scenario. Inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2% target, which limits room for easing as long as the labour market remains resilient, while higher oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions risk keeping inflation elevated for longer. Bond markets have already adjusted by pricing in higher long term inflation and fewer rate cuts, even as many economists continue to expect easing later due to growth and labour market risks.
Despite the announced ceasefire between the US and Iran, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, with the crucial shipping route effectively still largely closed. Iran is exercising control by imposing conditions and levying tolls on vessels, discouraging shipowners because of sanctions exposure and insurance uncertainty. As a result, tanker traffic is minimal, oil prices have rebounded to around $95–100 per barrel, and financial markets increasingly assume that elevated energy prices will persist, fuelling fears of inflation or even stagflation.
France has brought its gold reserves fully back under domestic control by selling 129 tonnes of gold stored in the United States and repurchasing an equivalent amount in Europe, generating a one off book profit of €12.8 billion due to high gold prices. The Banque de France stresses that the move was driven by technical and operational considerations rather than political concerns, as part of a long running effort to modernise its gold holdings. Other central banks, including De Nederlandsche Bank, see no reason to follow this approach and continue to rely on existing international storage agreements, while gold has regained importance as a stabilising asset in periods of financial stress.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.53% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.02% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
