The Panama Canal is experiencing a surge in demand as Middle East disruptions redirect global trade flows, with daily transits rising from 34 to around 38-41 and revenues expected to increase by 10 to 15 percent. The number of oil shipments has nearly doubled, with 12 to 14 daily transits compared to 7 before the conflict, reflecting a shift away from reliance on Middle Eastern routes. Higher auction prices, averaging $385,000 versus $135,000 previously, indicate sustained pressure on global logistics and a potential structural reconfiguration of trade routes.
Flows of liquefied natural gas to Pakistan have partially resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, easing pressure in a country where gas plays a key role in power generation. The passage required coordination with Iran. While the shipments provide short‑term relief, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to pose significant risks to regional energy supply.
Investor appetite for private markets is weakening as concerns about valuations and credit risk spread beyond private credit into broader segments of alternative assets. Fundraising for US evergreen private equity and venture capital funds grew only 2 percent year on year and declined 2 percent quarter on quarter, while private credit inflows dropped sharply by 30 percent. Total fundraising is now projected at around $180 billion in 2026, down from $211 billion, highlighting a broader shift toward caution and tighter conditions across private capital markets.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 4 basis points to 2.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 3.03% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Union has not yet reached internal agreement on a trade deal with the United States concluded last August. After extended discussions, EU member states and the European Parliament failed to reach a breakthrough and will resume talks on the 19th of May. The Parliament is seeking safeguards, including limits on the deal’s duration, suspension rights if new US tariffs emerge, and changes to steel and aluminium-related levies.
The Asian Development Bank plans to deploy $70 billion to expand energy and digital infrastructure across Asia-Pacific by 2035, with Southeast Asia expected to benefit most. Key initiatives include a pan-Asia power grid and an Asia-Pacific digital highway to improve connectivity and close infrastructure gaps. Analysts note that Southeast Asia’s relatively underdeveloped energy interconnection and digital networks make it well positioned to attract funding, particularly Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
German banks hold substantial excess capital but are struggling to lend due to weak demand from creditworthy borrowers and heightened uncertainty linked to the Iran war, according to the Bundesbank. Banks have around 183 billion euros in capital above regulatory requirements, yet investment remains subdued. Rising energy prices, tighter credit conditions and risk aversion are discouraging borrowing, while many mid-sized companies are holding cash instead of investing.
The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to 2.56% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.04% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Decentralised finance (blockchain-based financial system) is facing an investor exodus after two major hacks raised concerns about security. Around $14bn has been withdrawn, following thefts of $290mn linked to Aave and $280mn from Drift. The incidents triggered an industry-backed bailout to prevent contagion, undermining claims of full decentralisation. Token prices have fallen sharply, regulatory scrutiny is increasing, and experts warn that weak safeguards and more advanced hacking techniques leave the sector vulnerable.
Russia will resume buying foreign currency for its National Wealth Fund as higher oil prices linked to the Middle East war lift export revenues. The finance ministry plans purchases of 110.3 billion roubles, mainly Chinese yuan, from May 8 to June 4. The volume is lower than markets expected due to output cuts and sanctions-related discounts. The rouble strengthened after the announcement.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission has proposed ending mandatory quarterly reporting, allowing listed companies to report earnings semi-annually. The move aligns with President Donald Trump’s deregulatory agenda and aims to give companies greater flexibility while still requiring disclosure of material information. Supporters argue it could reduce short-termism and compliance costs, while critics warn it may reduce transparency and increase uncertainty for investors accustomed to quarterly, comparable financial data.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 4 basis points to 2.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 3.03% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Trump pauses “Project Freedom,” the U.S. military operation to guide commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress toward a “complete and final agreement” with Iran just one day after the operation began. The announcement lifted stock futures and raised hopes for a deal that would reopen the strategically vital waterway, through which nearly 23,000 sailors on vessels from 87 countries remain stranded. Tensions had escalated sharply beforehand, with the UAE reporting Iranian missile and drone attacks and a South Korean-operated vessel catching fire in the strait.
Samsung shares surged more than 15% to push its market capitalisation past $1 trillion, driven by booming AI memory demand and record first-quarter earnings in which operating profit rose more than eightfold to 57.2 trillion won on revenue of 133.9 trillion won. The rally was further fuelled by reports that Apple held exploratory talks with Samsung and Intel to produce chips for U.S.-based devices, potentially reducing reliance on TSMC. South Korean peer SK Hynix jumped more than 10%, helping lift the Kospi above 7,000 for the first time.
Australia committed A$10 billion ($7.2 billion) to boost national fuel stockpiles to 50 days and establish a permanent government-owned reserve of around 1 billion litres, as the country faces supply pressures from the Middle East conflict. The package includes A$3.2 billion for the fuel reserve and A$7.5 billion in loans, equity and price support for fuel and fertiliser storage. Australia currently imports around 80% of its fuel and has experienced local shortages since the conflict began, with reserves previously mandated at just 30 days.
The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to 2.56% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 3.09% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Australia’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% on Tuesday, matching its December 2024 peak and marking its third consecutive increase. Eight of nine board members voted in favour. The RBA cited Middle East conflict as a key driver of elevated fuel and commodity prices, pushing consumer price inflation to 4.09% in the first quarter of 2026. The bank signalled further hikes ahead, with forecasts pencilling in a policy rate of 4.7% by December 2026, while economic growth for 2026 was revised down to 1.3%.
Euro area manufacturing activity picked up in April, with the S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 52.2 from 51.6 in March. However, the headline figure was distorted by stockpiling behaviour, as firms rushed to build raw material inventories amid Middle East war-related supply concerns. Business confidence, measured by the future output index, fell to 55.4, its lowest in 17 months. Input costs surged, with the input prices index jumping from 68.9 to 77.0, reinforcing expectations of European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes later this year.
The European Union is preparing to defend its interests if US President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to raise tariffs on EU cars and trucks from 15% to 25%. Trump claims the EU has not upheld the agreement, reached in July last year, under which the US imposed a 15% general import tariff on EU goods while Europe scrapped most duties on American industrial and agricultural products. The EU states dialogue remains its preferred approach, but all options are on the table if the US deviates from agreed terms. Ratification of the deal by the European Parliament is expected in June.
The 6M Euribor increased with 6 basis points to 2.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 3.13% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Stock markets across the Gulf closed modestly higher as investors weighed uncertainty over a potential US–Iran agreement and the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supply. Oil prices softened after peace proposals, with Brent settling at $108.17 per barrel, limiting equity gains across energy‑dependent economies. The mixed performance reflects cautious sentiment as markets remain sensitive to geopolitical signals that directly affect oil flows and regional growth.
Japan’s authorities have put currency markets on high alert after sharp volatility pushed the yen from around ¥160.7 to ¥155.5 per dollar within hours, amid suspected government intervention estimated at over $30bn. With Japan heavily reliant on imported energy, the renewed weakness of the yen raises inflation risks just as the country enters its low‑liquidity Golden Week holiday period. Policymakers see the holiday as an effective window for intervention, especially as carry‑trade activity continues to pressure the currency.
Global investors funnelled more than $3bn into clean energy exchange‑traded funds in April, the strongest inflows since January 2021, lifting total assets to $43bn. The appetite reflects a shift from climate‑driven investing toward energy security and independence, particularly in Europe, where reliance on imported fuels has become a strategic vulnerability. In the US, demand is also being driven by the need to expand power generation and grid capacity to support rapid growth in energy‑intensive technologies such as artificial intelligence.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.46% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 3.07% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Eurozone economic sentiment fell to a three-and-a-half-year low in April as the Iran war weighed heavily on services and consumer confidence. The Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped to 93.0 from 96.6, while price pressures intensified, with inflation expected to rise to 2.9%. Moreover, Europe’s central banks are in focus today, as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England announce their latest policy decisions, with rates expected to remain unchanged but attention increasingly shifting to June for possible, limited rate hikes.
DBS Bank expects China’s economic growth to moderate over the next 12 to 18 months, signalling rising slowdown risks for the world’s second-largest economy. The forecast reflects weaker domestic consumption, a prolonged property sector downturn and softer export demand amid geopolitical tensions. While sectors such as renewable energy remain resilient, DBS warns that structural challenges, including demographics and debt constraints, will likely cap growth and weigh on global trade and commodity demand.
Wall Street banks have increased their US Treasury holdings to the highest level since 2007, encouraged by easing capital regulations under the Trump administration. Primary dealers now hold about $550bn in Treasuries on average, up from less than $400bn last year, representing nearly 2% of the market. Looser leverage rules have enabled banks to expand market-making, though structural changes mean hedge funds and high-frequency traders remain dominant.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 3.14% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Inflation in Australia rose to 4.09% year-on-year in the first quarter, its highest level in over two years, though slightly below the 4.2% forecast. March inflation hit 4.6%, driven by higher costs for housing, transport and food, reinforcing expectations of further rate hikes. The Reserve Bank of Australia, which raised rates to 4.1% in March, warned that Middle East developments could add to inflation pressure, with the board signalling rates may need to rise further.
The U.S. Treasury warned financial institutions of sanctions exposure for dealings with Chinese “teapot” refineries processing Iranian oil, as Washington intensifies its maximum pressure campaign against Tehran. China purchases approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports, with independent refineries accounting for the majority of imports, often disguised through ship-to-ship transfers and relabelled as “Malaysian blend.” The warning comes ahead of Trump’s planned visit to Beijing, with Iran’s main export terminal on Kharg Island nearing storage capacity, potentially costing Tehran $170 million in daily revenue.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that rising global government debt, combined with geopolitical risks and widening deficits, could trigger “some kind of bond crisis” if policymakers fail to act proactively. Speaking at Norway’s sovereign wealth fund conference, Dimon cautioned that a credit recession, when it comes, could be worse than expected, with private credit at $1.7 trillion not yet systemic but broader lending stress a growing concern. “We haven’t had a credit recession in so long, so when we have one, it would be worse than people think,” he said.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.47% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.10% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held its policy rate steady at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote, with dissenting members advocating an increase to 1%. The BOJ cut its fiscal year 2026 growth forecast from 1% to 0.5% and raised its core inflation outlook from 1.9% to 2.8%, citing Middle East supply-side risks. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield recently peaked at 2.496%, its highest since 1997, while the yen has weakened over 1.5% this year, trading at 159.12 against the dollar.
U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, which would defer nuclear discussions until after the war ends and Strait of Hormuz shipping disputes are resolved. The U.S. insists nuclear issues must be addressed from the outset. Meanwhile, oil prices are rising again as crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained, with only seven ships crossing daily compared to 125 to 140 before the war. Peace talks show little progress, with Trump’s special envoy cancelling a planned visit to Islamabad last weekend.
US consumer sentiment fell to 49.8 in April, its lowest level since records began in 1978, according to the University of Michigan. The reading is down 6.6% from March and 4.6% year-on-year, driven by rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Iran war. The current situation sub-index dropped 12.2% year-on-year to 52.5, while short-term inflation expectations jumped sharply from 3.8% to 4.7%, the largest monthly increase since April 2025. Long-term inflation expectations reached 3.5%, their highest since October 2025.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.46% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 3.07% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Traditional market correlations have broken down since the Iran war, leaving investors navigating with what BMO’s chief FX strategist calls a “faulty instrument panel.” Gold trades 10% below pre-war levels and moves in lockstep with equities, while the dollar-stocks correlation hit a record inverse of 0.94. Even rate differentials have lost their grip on currencies, with the euro stalling near $1.17 despite expected ECB rate hikes.
Japan’s core inflation rose to 1.8% in March, its first acceleration in five months, driven by energy price pressures stemming from the Iran war. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates at 0.75% at its April meeting, though analysts flag a hawkish tilt amid yen depreciation concerns. Core-core inflation eased to 2.4%, its lowest since October 2024, complicating the BOJ’s policy outlook.
IBM shares fell 8% after first-quarter results failed to ease investor fears over AI disruption, with consulting revenue missing estimates despite stronger-than-expected software sales. The company held its full-year guidance at constant currency revenue growth above 5%, which markets read as cautious given the recent Confluent acquisition. Software stocks remain broadly under pressure, with ServiceNow and Oracle also selling off sharply on AI substitution fears.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 3.04% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
