Market Information Wednesday 04 February 2026

The United States is preparing to issue licenses that would allow companies to pump oil in Venezuela, following earlier permissions to buy and sell Venezuelan crude. The move aligns with Washington’s attempt to support the country’s damaged economy, which has suffered from mismanagement and sanctions despite its vast oil reserves. After Nicolás Maduro’s imprisonment, leadership shifted to Delcy Rodríguez, who has openly rejected U.S. pressure. Although the U.S. aims to stimulate the Venezuelan economic recovery, political tensions remain high.

European banks have tightened lending standards for businesses and consumers due to heightened risk perception and reduced appetite for uncertainty linked to global trade tensions. Mortgage lending was a rare exception, where conditions slightly eased. Several key sectors, including construction, retail and wholesale trade, energy intensive industries, commercial real estate and automotive manufacturing, faced stricter credit conditions. The European Central Bank notes that concerns over the economic outlook remain strong, and banks expect further tightening ahead. These developments will influence the ECB’s upcoming interest rate decision, with economists suggesting that current conditions support holding rates steady at 2%. 

Significant uncertainty surrounds the trade arrangements the U.S. president claims to have reached with India, as only a tariff reduction to 18% has been confirmed by New Delhi, while broader commitments such as eliminating trade barriers, ending Russian oil purchases and expanding U.S. imports remain unverified. Experts doubt the feasibility of these claims, particularly regarding agricultural tariffs, which are politically sensitive and employ a large workforce. Indian farmers’ groups have already begun protesting potential concessions, and analysts question whether India would overhaul its oil imports or trade policies in exchange for limited U.S. steps. Despite the ambiguity, Indian markets reacted positively.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.15% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.90% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.