Market Information Tuesday 30 September 2025

The US Labor Department will suspend it publications if a shutdown begins, halting data collection and release of high-impact indicators. That would postpone the Employment Situation scheduled for Friday, 3 October, and could delay mid-October inflation prints (e.g., CPI around 15 October) if the lapse persists. A temporary data vacuum typically lifts uncertainty premia and near-term volatility in rates and FX.

China’s official manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.8 in September (Aug: 49.4) but remained in contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI eased to 50.0 (Aug: 50.3). The composite gauge edged to 50.6, pointing to broadly stable but subdued activity. The mix suggests domestic demand is still soft despite a marginal improvement in factory sentiment, keeping a lid on risk appetite across Asia and leaving the CNY sensitive to incremental policy support rather than wholesale stimulus.

Gold printed a fresh record as spot touched $3,866.90/oz and is set for its best month since 2011, up roughly 12% m/m. The bid reflects safe-haven demand on U.S. shutdown risks alongside expectations that softer growth and easing real-yield momentum will keep the opportunity cost of holding bullion contained. With futures also firm and ETF interest stabilising, the metal’s correlation to lower real rates and a softer USD remains the key driver into quarter-end.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.